那不问了

Recently, many bloggers on Twitter have been discussing the rise of Gamefi. I will also share my personal views. The article is long, so you can like it first and then read it. If you have any ideas, you can also leave a message to discuss. Will GameFi rise? The answer is yes, and the time may be relatively close, but it still needs to be verified by the market. Why do you say that? Below is my logic. The origin of GameFi was in 2019, and the specific concept was formed in 2021. In 2021, GameFi became a comprehensive concept of Game+NFT+Defi, and then began to grow wildly. Well-known games such as Axie, SandBox, and STEPN have appeared, as well as game guilds such as YGG and PathDAO that have emerged based on games, as well as some game platforms. Then it started to decline from the beginning of 2022, which is also the inevitable result of some unreasonable mechanisms of GameFi. There are several reasons: 1. Play to Earn gives players too high expectations. Chain game project developers like to provide players with high-yield expectations to make them a driving force for playing games, and then set the entry threshold for NFT in terms of output in the game. The payback period for early players is very short. However, as output increases, the return period for new players will become longer, and it will eventually become a Ponzi, with old players and project parties making money, and new players losing money. The original intention of everyone playing chain games is to play to Earn. The project team wants to make money and the players want to make money. Who loses money? New players of course. 2. Use Defi as the core of the game. Most of the GameFi we see now is Defi in the guise of games. The basic process is roughly the same. 1) Purchase the NFT of the project party 2) Use it in the game (pledge) 3) Make money in the game (liquidity mining) Upgrades, splits and other operations that may be extended later are all a type of liquidity mining, with the same purpose. Tokens are consumed to obtain more tokens. When the final income reaches a certain threshold, the game begins to decline because the game itself can no longer provide more income. Of course, there are many project parties such as BNX who are constantly making new games and repeating this process to maintain their own vitality. However, this is no longer separate from the game itself, and it only allows game-based Defi to survive. 3. Using NFT as the game threshold. You may not feel comfortable with using NFT as the threshold for games, because traditional games also use point cards, special game tokens, and tickets as the threshold for specific games. This is no problem in traditional games. Because everyone’s goal is not necessarily to make money, there is no difference between entering the game early and entering the game late. Moreover, the official of the game will conduct macro-control of the output in the game to ensure that specific props or the economy in the game are not stable. collapse.But in web3, with NFT as the game threshold, everyone definitely hopes that it can maintain its value, but value preservation is not good for the project side. The project side hopes that more players will participate in the game, then the NFT will not maintain its value. Players of chain games are not just players who play games. I prefer to be miners. They will calculate costs and output. If the investment cost payback period or output is relatively low, then they will leave the game and the market will I think this game has reached its end. Of course, the departure of some people will cause the output to return to a certain level. This means that this chain game can only support so many players. If there are more players, it will start to decline. This is unhealthy for the game and is very deformity. 4. The economic model is defective. Traditional games can macro-control the in-game economic model through game updates, such as Fantasy Westward Journey, DNF, QQ Three Kingdoms, etc. They can adjust the in-game token consumption or add new ones through one update. The game content is used to make the token props in the game basically stable within a certain range. Even if some giant whales are involved in trading, it will only affect the stability of the tokens and will not affect the value of the key props themselves. It is based on the game itself anchored. After the next update, merchants who hoard goods or exchange coins may lose all their money. This is a centralized approach. But in the pursuit of decentralized blockchain, it would not be so halal to do so, and if the currency price collapses, no one will care whether your props are anchored to the game itself, and the game will still fall. 5. There are no new users. This is the most critical problem in my opinion. In the past, chain games were still aimed at the existing users of web3 itself, so it was difficult to break out of the circle. There are many influencing factors here. The first is the entry threshold of web3 itself, which cannot allow web2 players to enter without any sense. Secondly, there are the restrictions caused by the control of the market by large players mentioned earlier, too high threshold, low game quality and other reasons. Without a huge user base, it is very difficult to extend the life cycle, and then it will return to the previous cycle. Without new users, new needs will be created to maintain the status quo. The above are some reasons for the decline of chain games, so why do I still think that chain games will rise?The first is infrastructure construction. Since last year, we can see that many chain game infrastructures are advancing, which can make it easier for web2 players to enter chain games, such as various low-gas L2 public chains, MPC wallets, The login SDK built into the game engine, etc., are the basis for allowing more outside users to enter the game, although they are still being improved. The second is traffic growth. Still starting from last year, we have seen many games begin to be put on traditional game platforms such as Steam and Epic. In addition, TON is also promoting its own ecological development based on telegram. This is also a very good traffic entrance, but it still lacks a display and search portal. If it is perfected, it can also gain users who use telegram. Finally, traditional game manufacturers have entered the game. Compared with some unknown chain game project developers, I am more optimistic about traditional game manufacturers. First of all, in terms of game quality, it is easier for traditional game manufacturers to produce games with high gameplay, solid content, and higher quality. The second is traffic. Traditional game manufacturers have been deeply involved in web2 for many years. Their own brands have their own audiences. They do not need to give players a high expected revenue to attract players like most chain games. They only need to ensure the quality of their games. Finally, there are various restrictions. Many domestic game manufacturers suffer from the lack of version numbers. Even good games may not be available on the shelves, but in web3 it is still a blue ocean. However, there are still some problems. Traditional game manufacturers still need to consider the economic model issues because they need to adapt to the rules of web3. To sum up, what I am optimistic about about chain games is whether they can have a huge player base. A game can accommodate enough players as soon as it starts. In fact, the project team only needs to consider the content and quality of the game and do its job well. Players who focus on gameplay serve as consumers, and players or studios who purely aim to make money serve as producers. The project side can control the intermediate links to regulate the output of the game and consume the game content to obtain profits. In addition, you can also learn from various open world open game editors, add more content creators, and segment users.I have seen some well-known major manufacturers enter the web3 layout. Can the traffic they bring break the curse of gamefi? I'll wait and see. I also hope that 2024 will be a gamefi summer. As for gamefi summer, is it coming? All I can say is Tathagata. #GameFi