facelessmagister

$BTC direction

If BTC can break through this #descendingchannel then $100K could be the next target and we might see the market in general going bullish.

BTC may decide to retest the lower channel though and if it does, we might see some correction in the coming days.

If the channel fails, $50K and $40K may be areas to consider re-entry/DCA.

I'm putting some of my money on a bullish move:

Trading short term on a longer term move.

# Disclaimers:

1. These are just my personal thoughts and strategy, not financial advice.
2. I am a crypto income investor and long term trader (occasionally short term/day trader). So my thoughts are more in line with this POV.

# Just a DCB

The rallies we are seeing are what would be called 'Dead Cat Bounce (DCB)'. Shorter term rallies in a longer term downtrend.

That's not to say that money can't be made going long. In the previous bear market I did rebound trading on the hourly chart with some success. Sharp profits, tight cut losses and most importantly: DON'T BE GREEDY!!!

Then when a shorter term uptrend can be found, I did short term trend trading. This didn't work quite well for me because I wasn't able to monitor the market as frequently as the strategy and market conditions required. I ended up leaving my trades open and getting stopped out when the market did a nasty reversal - which is expected in a bear market!

# A new cycle?

The bigger picture IMPO is that the crypto market has reached a temporary high. Temporary as in - possibly/likely - for the next several months up to maybe 2-3 years.

Crypto like any other asset has up and down cycles. Nothing goes up in a straight line... ok maybe some crypto do before plunging down an endless rabbits hole, but this is a different - and much more risky business endeavour.

If we know this then it should take out some of the fear, panic and hopelessness. "I tried DCA but there is no end to the fall". This was a common emotion during the previous fall in late 2021.

If we look at the charts now the thinking will be more like "Why didn't I sell my house and buy at those 2022 lows!!!". Hindsite is a cheat code.

# Personal analysis

Given all the facts on the ground - summarised in the charts - The crypto market has reached the current peak at BTC ~$73790.

Given that the market has been in a nice rally for the past year (bull market confirmation around October 2023?), it is currently risky to take a long possition. The risk:reward ratio is also not too great for most coins.