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$BTC $ETH It's been a long time since I've analyzed and summarized the market; writing articles and analyses has been inconsistent. Today, I'll briefly discuss it.
This bull market belongs to BTC and is also a bull market for memes, although there is a lack of a general altcoin season. BTC started rising in 2022, reaching its first peak in March 2024 and the second peak in January 2025. The trend is actually similar to March 2021 and December 2021, but the timing of the relative peaks has been delayed by one month. Altcoins are expected to reach their first peak in March 2024 and the second peak in December 2024. BTC rising to 109,000 is already impressive, and altcoins multiplying many times over is also impressive, but it is somewhat different from previous bull markets.
The favorable conditions since Trump took office, MicroStrategy's purchases, BlackRock's continuous accumulation, and interest rate cuts all point to a continuous influx of good news in the second half of 2024. The increasing inflow of funds has led to a rise in trading volume and capital inflow. Now, looking at BTC's trading volume, it's getting smaller and liquidity is decreasing. MicroStrategy's purchases are becoming less frequent. The U.S. stock market continues to print money and rise, and if the crypto market also had continuous money printing, it could also rise continuously, but this scenario is quite unlikely. Institutional holdings may not sell for six months to a year; will they be able to hold that long? Without trading and liquid assets, everything is worthless. Investments definitely need returns, and returns need to be converted into dollars. There are no waves that only rise without falling; they all have ups and downs. The bull market has ended, but the volatility has not.
Returning to the charts, BTC is currently the largest altcoin, with daily fluctuations of several thousand to tens of thousands of points, yet trading volume remains very low. Comparing the trading volume before January to now shows a clear trend: BTC's liquidity is getting worse. Currently, platform coins are rising rapidly, while retail investors are being harvested repeatedly. Funding is not infinite, and the increase in new users is also slowing down. The amount of capital being harvested is decreasing. In this larger trend, one can ignore the news and focus on trend trading, capturing tens of thousands of points of volatility, rather than being overly concerned about fluctuations of a few thousand points. BTC is currently following a rebound trend; it's good to keep an eye on the lower range around 9 or 9.2. Building positions around 88 is not a problem, as most can see the 7 range. Opening 30 trades in a month is not as effective as opening once a month to grasp the trend.
I don't know if the cow exists, I only know that the eight waves have ended. I also only know that we are currently fluctuating between the middle and lower tracks. Sometimes I remember to share, sometimes I don't, but I have been keeping up with my trades. There are too many people following the crowd; I prefer to quietly focus on my own trades and have fewer thoughts.
The private domain copy trading experiment is basically coming to an end, and there has been a large retracement in the middle. Overall, long-term investment can generate returns, but to obtain large returns basically requires a big market, and the stop loss space in a big market needs to be very large.
The daily eight-wave pattern has ended, and the weekly price has a pullback to 73. Currently, the short-term resistance is at the mid-track of 94. If it breaks through, there will be more space; if it doesn't break through, just wash and sleep.
笔谈
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$BTC
There's no point in saying much; the 2/3 warehouse starting with 8 has never changed, and the stop-loss has always been set. Even though it has fallen a lot, I haven’t mentioned a bear market. There are too many factors involved in trading, but as long as you don't exit the market, you will profit.
There's no point in saying much; the 2/3 warehouse starting with 8 has never changed, and the stop-loss has always been set. Even though it has fallen a lot, I haven’t mentioned a bear market. There are too many factors involved in trading, but as long as you don't exit the market, you will profit.
笔谈
--
$BTC
Isn't it true that many people are shouting that the bull has arrived and the bear has left? When you see this, just directly blacklist and block it all. It is unpredictable when major news will cause a sell-off, but an understanding of technical indicators must be clear. A sell-off does not necessarily mean a bear market, and a rally does not necessarily mean a bull market. Manage your positions well, don't take on too much risk, and problems won't be too significant.
Isn't it true that many people are shouting that the bull has arrived and the bear has left? When you see this, just directly blacklist and block it all. It is unpredictable when major news will cause a sell-off, but an understanding of technical indicators must be clear. A sell-off does not necessarily mean a bear market, and a rally does not necessarily mean a bull market. Manage your positions well, don't take on too much risk, and problems won't be too significant.
笔谈
--
$BTC
If it drops, the cow is gone; if it rises, the cow is still here. If your skills are insufficient, don't force it. The technical indicator shows a C-wave correction, and the expectation is 873. I really didn't expect it to drop directly to the 82 range, but the counterfeit is basically close to the bottom position, which is not a problem. Relatively speaking, I can't say much about the 7 range, but for the 8 range, I have kept 2/3 of my position unchanged. Now it's just about waiting; a new round of increases needs time to wait. <币安王牌KOL专属群(笔谈)>
If it drops, the cow is gone; if it rises, the cow is still here. If your skills are insufficient, don't force it. The technical indicator shows a C-wave correction, and the expectation is 873. I really didn't expect it to drop directly to the 82 range, but the counterfeit is basically close to the bottom position, which is not a problem. Relatively speaking, I can't say much about the 7 range, but for the 8 range, I have kept 2/3 of my position unchanged. Now it's just about waiting; a new round of increases needs time to wait. <币安王牌KOL专属群(笔谈)>
Looking back now, have the expectations starting with 8 been met?
笔谈
--
$BTC
BTC trend has not changed much. The corresponding middle rail, upper rail, lower rail and corresponding price in the figure are all on the left. The blue line is the blue marked price, the line corresponds to the price, and the time below the price is the current price. The middle rail is the resistance level, isn’t it 982? This picture is yesterday’s picture.
And the c wave is the expectation of 876. I have said it many times, it may not come, but there is an expectation. Enter the first position near 95, add positions near 8, or do the band. The market has not changed much. Don’t be the kind that either rises or falls. Drawing lines is an expectation. If the trend is oscillating, then the 876 expectation will move up, and the decline will be replaced by horizontal, or it can be completed directly with one needle. The market does not move like this. Look at the picture, be rational, and control.
The lower track of the daily level, the rising wedge of 4h, the correction wave of the daily line,
0.000007 is a very hard support. At this stage, it fluctuates with BTC around 0.000009, and it has not stood firm at the 0.00001 mark. Relatively speaking, it is enough to make waves between 9 and 1. If it does not fall below the strong support, it will rebound quickly.
Overall, the current big market is not on BTC and the previous meme. At this stage, the bnb chain is more volatile.
<币安王牌KOL专属群(笔谈)>
笔谈
--
$PEPE
At this stage, the trend of Pepe is not very different from that of Dogecoin. It is undergoing a correction after the C wave, and moving stop-loss is very important, as is stop-loss, and controlling position size is also crucial. One needs to have some planning regarding when to enter and when to sell.
Currently, Pepe has relatively resisted the downward pressure after the repeated fluctuations of BTC, but once it breaks below 90,000, the downward needle for Pepe will be quite long. Therefore, relatively speaking, do not hold positions; wait for a new trend or a downward spike to enter the market and move the stop-loss. Generally, a return of around 10% should not be less.
Nothing has changed. If you have a heavy position at the beginning of 8, you will have a 1/4 position around 95. I take back what I said about there being no alt season. The BNB chain has had a platform coin alt season in the past few days. BNX has increased by nearly 10 times in the past few days. Other corresponding on-chain coins have also seen a large increase.
笔谈
--
$BTC
BTC trend has not changed much. The corresponding middle rail, upper rail, lower rail and corresponding price in the figure are all on the left. The blue line is the blue marked price, the line corresponds to the price, and the time below the price is the current price. The middle rail is the resistance level, isn’t it 982? This picture is yesterday’s picture.
And the c wave is the expectation of 876. I have said it many times, it may not come, but there is an expectation. Enter the first position near 95, add positions near 8, or do the band. The market has not changed much. Don’t be the kind that either rises or falls. Drawing lines is an expectation. If the trend is oscillating, then the 876 expectation will move up, and the decline will be replaced by horizontal, or it can be completed directly with one needle. The market does not move like this. Look at the picture, be rational, and control.
At this stage, the trend of Pepe is not very different from that of Dogecoin. It is undergoing a correction after the C wave, and moving stop-loss is very important, as is stop-loss, and controlling position size is also crucial. One needs to have some planning regarding when to enter and when to sell.
Currently, Pepe has relatively resisted the downward pressure after the repeated fluctuations of BTC, but once it breaks below 90,000, the downward needle for Pepe will be quite long. Therefore, relatively speaking, do not hold positions; wait for a new trend or a downward spike to enter the market and move the stop-loss. Generally, a return of around 10% should not be less.
笔谈
--
$PEPE
PEPE has always been good, spot profits far exceed contracts, slow is fast.
Around the 15th, I mentioned that after the rebound, it would pull back to the 14, 15 level, just aim for the expectation of 18-21, and the actual situation isn't much different, this coin is the most worthwhile to trade repeatedly in this cycle, I think it's more valuable than Dogecoin, since 2024 started, every drop has rebounded, don't be too anxious, making a double in spot trading will definitely be quick.
Current price is a good entry, the extreme position is around 132 which is the last pullback at the 0.618 level, in spot trading, you don't need to catch the lowest point, it's almost time to enter, 1/4-1/3 is fine, you think 1/2 is okay too, just don't go all in, that's the bottom line.
BTC trend has not changed much. The corresponding middle rail, upper rail, lower rail and corresponding price in the figure are all on the left. The blue line is the blue marked price, the line corresponds to the price, and the time below the price is the current price. The middle rail is the resistance level, isn’t it 982? This picture is yesterday’s picture.
And the c wave is the expectation of 876. I have said it many times, it may not come, but there is an expectation. Enter the first position near 95, add positions near 8, or do the band. The market has not changed much. Don’t be the kind that either rises or falls. Drawing lines is an expectation. If the trend is oscillating, then the 876 expectation will move up, and the decline will be replaced by horizontal, or it can be completed directly with one needle. The market does not move like this. Look at the picture, be rational, and control.
笔谈
--
$BTC
BTC not updating does not mean no attention, it just means no market, basically no change, shock or decline, there is no need to analyze, afraid of missing out, you can enter the first position at 95.96, and then 2/3 positions starting with 8, and don’t pay too much attention to other things. There is definitely no alt season, it is normal to pull a few coins a day, so it’s okay to buy on dips, set a stop loss for alts, and do spot trading is best.
See the middle track in the picture, no problem, this middle track can be used as a short-term pressure level.
Dogecoin is in a state of repair for the time being. Don’t be afraid of being stuck, but be afraid of being blown up directly. So be careful when it is near the blow-up price. It is better to be stuck than to be blown up. All coins will eventually fall, no matter how glorious or powerful they are.
In the trend in the figure, you can regard the lower track as support in the short term. If you insert it, just stop loss. If it falls below, treat it as a pressure level. In terms of contracts, I open positions frequently, but the amount of funds is not large, about 10,000 U, all of which are mainly practical learning, mainly spot BTC and pepe.
Don’t be too excited, do it slowly, as long as you don’t leave this platform, you will definitely come back.
BTC not updating does not mean no attention, it just means no market, basically no change, shock or decline, there is no need to analyze, afraid of missing out, you can enter the first position at 95.96, and then 2/3 positions starting with 8, and don’t pay too much attention to other things. There is definitely no alt season, it is normal to pull a few coins a day, so it’s okay to buy on dips, set a stop loss for alts, and do spot trading is best.
See the middle track in the picture, no problem, this middle track can be used as a short-term pressure level.
笔谈
--
$BTC
There is no permanent profit in this market. Bulls come and go, bears come and go. Is today's market bullish or bearish? It goes up and down, and it goes up and down. If there is a big fluctuation, the bull market is there. If there is no fluctuation, it is a bear market. You must have your own logic when placing orders, and don't follow the crowd.
There is no permanent profit in this market. Bulls come and go, bears come and go. Is today's market bullish or bearish? It goes up and down, and it goes up and down. If there is a big fluctuation, the bull market is there. If there is no fluctuation, it is a bear market. You must have your own logic when placing orders, and don't follow the crowd.
笔谈
--
$BTC
When it's down, look at the bears; when it's up, look at the bulls. There's really no need for it.
From a broader perspective, the previous expectation was that after reaching b105, it would rebound. In reality, it rebounded twice at 106. Just set a stop loss at a higher point and open again; the main thing is to know how to move the stop loss. Then, it goes to c. At that time, the price was around 104 and 105. My expectation was not bullish but still looking for a pullback. Initially, I expected 92, later raised to 97, and I mentioned that as well. Basically, having a position around 97 is not a problem. Start adding positions with 8, while not worrying about other points.
One shouldn't look bullish when it rises and bearish when it falls. Generally, there shouldn't be any issues with the broader direction; specific points need to be based on your entry points. Stop loss is very normal. It's common to have a suitable point where the stop loss hits 3 or 4 times, but if you profit, it can be nearly ten thousand points. Don't be able to withstand tens of thousands of points in trades but can't accept a stop loss of a thousand points; this mindset is incorrect.
As for how to say it, some have the mentality of retail investors; if someone else predicts incorrectly, it's just wrong. Yet, they have to self-hypnotize to justify others. It's you who's losing money, not them. Everyone is not a god; making a judgment error is normal. There's no need to create your role to portray yourself as a master who earns forever. Losing money in this market is the norm, making money is the minority. Grasp this logic, and you need to trade against your logic, such as holding onto positions, repeatedly adding to positions, being bearish when it falls, being bullish when it reaches new highs, being reluctant to cut losses. Trading by following others without your own trading logic is really unnecessary. Technical learning is yours, and the money is yours; there's no need for it.