短缐交易俱樂部

💥BTC has almost adjusted in the short cycle. The last evening bus cannot be missed. On the short-term line, 64670 is on board. The target cannot exceed the stage resistance area. Only consider second buying opportunities if it continues. Always maintain a relative view. , Therefore, no matter whether the market will fall or not, you must plan in advance. If it does, it will be the rhythm of sending money. Yes, you read it right. Some market prices do not require decision-making, and you must intervene decisively. Don’t forget the 4-hour chip distribution position below at 61000.💥#热门话题 #BTC #sol

ETF operates based on the 4-hour/1-hour structural space. Today’s price did not reach the lower support section. The market reversed decisively at the resistance position of 3550. This position is the short-term long-short boundary. In operation, keep a light position and observe whether the market is reversed. , prohibiting absolute long and short views. If the price continues to fall, buy decisively at 3270. Please pay attention to the news released at any time for specific market outlook trends and operations. #热门话题 #BTC #sol

3.Continued from the previous article💥

A short-term holding of around 3 million BTC is not small, and as prices fluctuate, speculators may still exit with profits.
Without considering these meaningful sources of supply, it is an oversimplification to suggest inevitable scarcity due to slashed mining rewards and steady ETF demand. In our view, a more comprehensive assessment is needed to determine the true supply and demand dynamics behind the upcoming halving event.
Active supply and traffic
Even though Bitcoin has been included in the ETF, the active circulating supply (which we define as Bitcoin that has been transferred in the past 3 months) has grown significantly faster than cumulative ETF inflows. The active BTC supply has increased by 1.3 million since Q4’23, while only around 150,000 new Bitcoins were mined.
Some of this active supply does come from the miners themselves, who may be selling reserves, both to take advantage of price movements and to build liquidity in the event of reduced revenue.
We discussed this in more depth in our previous report, “Bitcoin Halving and Miner Economics,” published on January 30. This is similar to what miners did in previous cycles. However, Glassnode reports that between October 1, 2023, and March 11, 2024, net balances in miner wallets decreased by only 20,471 Bitcoins, meaning that the newly active Bitcoin supply mainly comes from elsewhere.
In previous cycles, changes in the active supply have outpaced the growth of newly mined Bitcoin by more than five times. In the 2017 and 2021 cycles, active supply nearly doubled, from a trough to 6.1 million in 11 months (an increase of 3.2 million), and from 3.1 million to 5.4 million in 7 months, respectively. an increase of 2.3 million). In comparison, the number of Bitcoin mined during the same period was approximately 600,000 and 200,000.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s inactive supply (which we define as Bitcoin that has not moved for more than a year) has also been declining for three consecutive months during this cycle, which may represent long-term holders starting to sell.
Under normal circumstances, this would be interpreted as a mid-cycle sign. In the 2017 and 2021 cycles mentioned above, there was a time frame of approximately 1 year from the peak of inactive supply to the highest price moment of the cycle, which is 12 and 13 months respectively.The number of inactive Bitcoins in the current cycle appears to have peaked in December 2023.
However, it is unclear what proportion of these Bitcoins have been moved to exchanges (sold), locked on cross-chain bridges, or otherwise used in financial transactions (such as over-the-counter transactions). While Bitcoin transfers to exchanges have doubled this year, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have fallen by a net 80,000, according to Glassnode. This suggests that there are other pools of money beyond ETFs that are helping to offset the increase in transfers to exchanges from both long- and short-term holders.
In reality, supply and demand dynamics in spot markets capture only part of the story of capital inflows and outflows. Bitcoin exhibits a derivatives multiplier effect similar to that of commodities, where the nominal value of outstanding Bitcoin derivatives is significantly higher than the market capitalization of physical Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin’s derivatives market amplifies spot trading volume several times, analyzing spot public exchange data alone does not fully reflect the true liquidity and adoption in the Bitcoin economy.
Therefore, while increased activity in “dormant” Bitcoin coincides with previous bull market peaks, we believe the exact dynamics of how supply and demand interact in the current environment remain less certain.
💥Conclusion💥
This cycle may indeed look different. Sustained daily net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to be a huge tailwind for the asset class. Since the supply of newly mined Bitcoin is about to be halved, this will lead to tighter market dynamics.
However, this does not necessarily mean that we are about to enter a supply crunch situation where demand will outweigh selling pressure. But what is clear is that Bitcoin spot ETFs have officially become a new digital asset class that mainstream financial institutions can now incorporate into traditional investment portfolios, marking a major milestone in Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption.
Therefore, we believe that current price action is just the beginning of a long-term bull market, and further price improvements are needed to push supply and demand dynamics into balance. #热门话题 #BTC

(2. Continued from the previous article...💥)
By contrast, in 2016, Brexit may have triggered financial concerns about the UK and Europe, which may have been a catalyst for Bitcoin buying behavior. This trend then continued with the 2017 ICO boom. In early 2020, central banks and governments around the world responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with unprecedented stimulus measures, which caused Bitcoin liquidity to rise sharply again.
It is also important to note that analysis of historical performance can vary significantly depending on the observation period relative to the halving event. The price return metric may change depending on whether the analysis looks at periods starting (and ending) 30, 60, 90, or 120 days from the halving date. Therefore, using different windows may affect the conclusions drawn from past price performance. For our purposes, we use a 60-day period because it both helps filter out short-term noise and is not so far away from the halving that other market factors may start to dominate price drivers in the longer term.
ETFs: The secret to success is getting started
The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF is reshaping market dynamics for Bitcoin by establishing a new anchor for Bitcoin demand. In previous cycles, liquidity was a major impediment to upward price momentum as major market players, including but not limited to Bitcoin miners, would drive selloffs as they attempted to exit long positions.
Today, ETF inflows are expected to absorb most of the supply in a gradual, sustained manner. In fact, ETFs now have an average daily BTC spot trading volume of approximately $4-5 billion, accounting for 15-20% of total global centralized exchange trading volume, making liquidity sufficient for institutions to trade in the space.
This stable demand situation could have a positive impact on Bitcoin’s price in the long term, as it creates a more balanced market with less volatility from concentrated sell-offs.
The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted $9.6 billion in net inflows in the first two months, bringing total assets under management to $55 billion. This means that the cumulative net growth in BTC held by these ETFs (180,000) during this time period was nearly three times greater than the 55,000 new Bitcoin supply generated by miners (see Figure 3).If we look at all spot Bitcoin ETFs globally, these regulated investment vehicles currently hold approximately 1.1 million Bitcoins, accounting for 5.8% of the total circulating supply, according to Bloomberg.
In the medium term, we may see ETFs continuing to maintain or even increase current liquidity, as large brokerages have not yet started offering these products to clients. With over $6 trillion currently still held in U.S. money market funds, and with interest rate cuts on the horizon, we believe there will be plenty of spare capital to move into this asset class this year alone.
By the way, please note that potential centralization issues with Bitcoin held by ETFs do not pose a stability risk to the network, as simply owning Bitcoin does not give you any influence over the decentralized network or control over its nodes. Furthermore, financial institutions are not yet able to offer derivatives based on these ETFs (as the underlying assets), which, once available, could change the market structure for large players. However, regulatory approval is conservatively estimated to take several months.
Hypothetically, if we assume that the pace of new inflows into U.S.-based ETFs has slowed from $6 billion in February to a plateau of $1 billion in net monthly inflows, a simple psychological model suggests that relative to the monthly With around 13,500 BTC (after halving), the average price of Bitcoin should be close to around $74,000. Of course, an obvious problem with this model is that Bitcoin miners are not the only source of selling Bitcoin supply in the market. In fact, we believe the imbalance between newly mined Bitcoin and ETF inflows is only a small part of the equation behind the long-term cyclical supply trend.
💥Lies, damn lies and statistics💥
One way to measure the supply of Bitcoin available for transactions is to take the difference between:
(1) Current circulating supply (19.65 million BTC);
(2) Illiquid supply, these Bitcoins are essentially untraded due to lost wallets, long-term holdings, or otherwise being locked.
According to data from Glassnode, which classifies illiquid supply based on cumulative inflows and outflows over the lifetime of a given entity, available Bitcoin supply levels have been trending downward over the past four years, from a peak of 5.3 million BTC in early 2020 down to the current 4.6 million.This is a significant shift from the steady upward trend in available supply observed during the previous three halvings.
At first glance, the decline in Bitcoin trading availability appears to be one of the main technical supports for Bitcoin’s performance as we have new institutional demand from ETFs. But in fact, given that fewer new Bitcoins are about to enter circulation, these supply and demand dynamics suggest that the likelihood of a market tightening in the short term may be high. That said, we believe this framework does not fully capture the complexity of Bitcoin market liquidity dynamics, especially since “illiquid supply” does not mean static supply.
We believe investors should not overlook several key factors that may influence selling pressure:
Not all Bitcoin in illiquidity is “stuck.” Long-term holders (holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, accounting for 83.5% of holdings) may be less economically sensitive to their holdings relative to short-term holders, but we expect this Some in a group may still realize profits when prices rise.
Some holders may have no intention of selling in the near future but can still provide liquidity by using their Bitcoin as collateral. This also affects the "illiquidity" attribute of these Bitcoins to a certain extent.
Miners may sell their Bitcoin reserves (currently 1.8 million BTC for public and private miners) to expand their operations or cover other costs. #热门话题 #BTC #sol

💥💥💥💥What will happen to BTC after the halving? 🚀🚀🚀
💥Quick Overview💥
1. As the fourth Bitcoin halving approaches, we believe that research on previous cycles should be interpreted with caution, as the small sample size makes it difficult to generalize their patterns to the upcoming future.
2. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has also reshaped the market dynamics of Bitcoin by establishing a new anchor point for BTC demand, which makes this cycle unique.
3. We believe that the current price action is just the beginning of a long-term bull market, and the upward trend in prices needs to go further to drive the supply and demand dynamics to balance.
We are more than a month away from Bitcoin's fourth halving. Like all previous halvings, it will reduce the Bitcoin issuance reward for miners in half, this time from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.
While studying past halving cycles can provide some insight into Bitcoin’s potential price action, we believe that the sample size of three events is too small and may not provide enough data support to structure a clear pattern or make clear predictions about the impact of the halving.
In addition, we believe that the market dynamics of Bitcoin have fundamentally changed with the advent of US spot BTC ETFs.
In just two months, its net inflows reached billions of dollars, which has irreversibly changed the landscape. Now that major institutional players have been able to invest through these tools, Bitcoin’s reaction to this halving may not necessarily be reflected in the performance of the previous three cycles. We believe that it is more important to understand the current technical supply and demand situation, which can help us better understand Bitcoin’s potential.
In fact, while the limit on the supply of new Bitcoin is an important consideration, it is only one of many factors. Since the beginning of 2020, the amount of Bitcoin available for trading (i.e., the difference between the circulating and illiquid supply) has been declining, which is a significant change compared to previous cycles.
But recent data shows that the active BTC supply (Bitcoin that has been moved in the past 3 months) has increased significantly by 1.3 million since the beginning of Q4 2023, while only about 150,000 new Bitcoins were mined during this period.While the market is better equipped to absorb this supply than in the past, we still think it’s prudent not to oversimplify the complex interplay of these market dynamics.
💥Background💥
Bitcoin miner rewards are halved every 210,000 blocks, which happens approximately every four years (the exact date and time depends on the network hash rate, the amount of computing power used to process transactions and mine new blocks, but this halving is expected to occur between April 16 and 20 of this year).
The halving will reduce total bitcoin issuance from about 900 bitcoins per day (implying an annual issuance rate of 1.8%) to about 450 bitcoins per day, implying an annual issuance rate of 1.8% to 0.9%. After the halving, bitcoin production will be around 135 million per month, or about 164,250 per year (the exact number depends on the actual hash rate).
Halvings will continue as planned until all 21 million bitcoins have been mined, which is expected to happen around 2140. We believe the potential significance of the halving is its ability to increase media attention to Bitcoin’s uniqueness: a fixed, deflationary supply schedule that culminates in a hard cap on supply.
This is often underestimated. With physical commodities, such as minerals, more resources can theoretically be put into mining and extracting more minerals, such as gold or copper, even though the barrier to entry may be high, but it will help meet demand when prices rise.
But Bitcoin supply is inelastic (i.e., not price sensitive) due to the preset block reward and difficulty adjustment mechanism. Moreover, Bitcoin is a growth story. The utility of the Bitcoin network scales with the number of users on the network, which directly affects the value of the token. In contrast, buying precious metals such as gold does not have the expectation of such growth.
💥History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But…💥
Analyzing the impact of halving cycles on Bitcoin’s performance is limited because our experience is limited to three halving events. Therefore, studies of correlations between previous halving events and Bitcoin prices should be interpreted with caution, as the sample size is small and it is difficult to model them from historical analysis alone.
In fact, we believe that more halving cycles are needed to draw stronger conclusions about how Bitcoin “usually” reacts to halvings. Furthermore, correlation does not imply causation, and factors including market sentiment, adoption trends, and macroeconomic conditions can all contribute to price volatility.
In fact, we have previously argued that Bitcoin’s performance in previous halving events is likely context-dependent. This may explain why its price action has varied so much across cycles. As shown in Figure 1, Bitcoin’s price was relatively flat in the 60 days leading up to the first halving in November 2012, while it rose 45% and 73% in the same period leading up to the second and third halvings in July 2016 and May 2020, respectively.
In our view, the beneficial effects of the first halving did not really become apparent until January 2013, when the effects of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program (QE3) intertwined with the U.S. debt ceiling crisis. We therefore believe that increased media coverage of halvings may have increased awareness of Bitcoin as an alternative store of value to counter widespread concerns about inflation. #热门话题 #BOME #WIF #BTC #pepe
(Link to the next article......💥

The BTC 4-hour band order trading plan is based on the consistency principle of current trend adjustment and buying at the adjusted resistance position to comply with the continuity of chip distribution. Therefore, a long order is placed at the low level of 59227, the stop loss is 600 points, and the take profit target is 68190. (It is recommended to operate with a light position, and proceed with capital loss after 600 points of departure from the cost) If you have any questions, please leave a message! #热门话题 #BTC #ETH #DOGE

BTC 30-minute short-term operation chart, buy decisively and go long after the price breaks through 68192, short-term target 69287, stop loss 451 points (it is recommended to promote capital preservation loss after the market breaks away from the cost) #热门话题 #sol #BTC #ETH #WLD

ETH trading position/trading space reference, this chart is a trading space formed according to the daily chart/4-hour/1-hour structure arrangement, trading around two boundaries in the resistance space #热门话题 #BTC #ETH

BTC was bought after breaking through 73299 in 1 hour, and after breaking away from the cost, it was pushed to protect the loss. Buying at this position requires decisiveness, as the temporary space is relatively limited, and a stop loss must be brought in during the transaction.
Buy BTC when the price falls back to 69415 in 4 hours, or the price breaks through this position rapidly and then buys at the lowest price. The stop loss does not exceed 400 points, and the target is 73101.#热门话题 #BTC #ETH

BTC operations continue to have the same thinking as yesterday. The breakthrough itself represents a strong return. Even the fluctuations in the short-term market adjustment will not be much smaller. Therefore, where to go out, buy on this basis. The operation is recommended to focus on two Border and beyond-border transaction costs are relatively high and the risks are relatively high. Currently, 70330 is used as the lower resistance, and the upper stage resistance is around 72913. If it breaks through again, although it continues to buy, it is necessary to observe the trend before buying decisively. Generally, the market is in the development of the trend, and the callback support position is long. Today When the price is around 71816, you can take one more short position first, with a target of 72690 and a stop loss of 360 points. #热门话题 #BTC #Launchpool

BTC/ETH/ORDI came relatively quickly, and all achieved profit-taking targets. ORDI needs to reduce part of its holdings first and then protect its losses. The driving force of the market is mainly to see-saw in the area where the trend is running. The focus of today's strategy is to break through the boundary and enter the market with the trend, and to enter the market at a low boundary.

ORDI can currently hold short positions. This kind of short position that is away from the resistance needs to leave the market decisively. Because the probability of the market reversal is high when the trend is over, it is recommended that you also need to observe whether the price breaks through 74.147 in the reverse direction. Buying opportunities need to be decisive and short-term targets. Around 78, stop loss 73.03#热门话题 #BTC #aevo

ETH and BTC have similar trends. In addition to buying at the 4-hour support level, it is recommended to buy after the price breaks through 3878 and then the 30-minute resistance level. The short-term target is 3948, and the stop loss is 33 points. (It is recommended to lighten the position, and promote the break-even loss and reduce the position after the price breaks away from the cost line) #热门话题 #BTC #Launchpool

The price of BTC is fluctuating in the upward trend area. It is more appropriate to buy at the support position. The 4-hour support position (67008) has not been reversed by a downward breakthrough. The general idea is to stay low and go long at this 4-hour support position and go up. The stage resistance position 70330 is a 4-hour resistance. Intervention will only be considered after the price continues to rise and adjusts, and blind pursuit of orders is not allowed. #BTC #热门话题 #Fet #Launchpool

The short-term downward resistance of ETH is 3856 and the upward resistance is 3946;
According to the continuation of the current general trend, it is recommended to focus on low and long, and it is recommended to buy at the downward resistance position, with the target first targeting the upward resistance (temporary adjustments can be made according to the price trend, and it is recommended to push to protect the loss after breaking away from the cost)
Another place a buy order at 3808, with a target of 3908 and a stop loss of 3763. (It is recommended to take a short position. #EOS #ETH #pepe #BTC

BTC is currently buffered from the impact of external reductions. The short-term trading club recommends that especially in swing trading, do not be overly obsessed with external data to bring you huge profits and space. This is unrealistic. Let’s be honest. Focus on the visible and tangible behavior of market prices themselves:
In the 1-hour structure of BTC, it is recommended to buy at the 65597 position, with the target at around 66200. It is recommended to place the stop loss within 300 points. When the transaction is out of cost, it is recommended to maintain the loss;
In the 4-hour structure of BTC, it is recommended to buy at the 63112 position, with a target of around 66200 and a stop loss of around 330 points. #BTC #aevo #ATOM