Dudley Stephans WR
Мысли по рынку: без индикаторов, бесполезных рисунков на графике и попыток подогнать происходящее сегодня под то, что было «предсказано» вчера 🙂
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New short from 107+. Position in the plus (how unpredictable).
And what about altcoins? Well, to the moon, obviously! Alt season. Prices at the level of April. And again, no surprises — I do not expect altcoins to rise from the dead before October - November.
And what about altcoins? Well, to the moon, obviously! Alt season. Prices at the level of April. And again, no surprises — I do not expect altcoins to rise from the dead before October - November.
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In general, I have said/written more than once that there are no signs of a reversal in the dominance $BTC , and that if Bitcoin corrects under the current dominance, altcoins will be deep in the fifth point.
I would very much like to see a calm flat in Bitcoin in the 107-112 range and finally see a long red snot in dominance. But whether to expect such developments before autumn is unclear.
And still, I anticipate at least some growth in June - July.
I would very much like to see a calm flat in Bitcoin in the 107-112 range and finally see a long red snot in dominance. But whether to expect such developments before autumn is unclear.
And still, I anticipate at least some growth in June - July.
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The market is structured in such a way that bad scenarios occur more frequently than good ones. And locally, declines happen more often than growth.
Has there been a rise on a positive note? Congratulations, tomorrow Trump will impose tariffs, argue with his boyfriend, and a military conflict will begin. Funds are buying, governments are forming reserves and installing crypto machines, cryptocurrency can be used for payments in stores — all these positive factors are predictable and almost exhausted, while the negative scenario can happen every single day — thanks to the people on this planet.
Therefore, contrary to popular belief (declines are limited to zero, while growth is supposedly unlimited), short positions from local highs occur more frequently than attempts to catch a bottom.
Has there been a rise on a positive note? Congratulations, tomorrow Trump will impose tariffs, argue with his boyfriend, and a military conflict will begin. Funds are buying, governments are forming reserves and installing crypto machines, cryptocurrency can be used for payments in stores — all these positive factors are predictable and almost exhausted, while the negative scenario can happen every single day — thanks to the people on this planet.
Therefore, contrary to popular belief (declines are limited to zero, while growth is supposedly unlimited), short positions from local highs occur more frequently than attempts to catch a bottom.
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While the hanging droplet on the daily chart hints at at least a bounce (and with a good scenario — a reversal). I will start accumulating a new short at 107 (if they give it).
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Brewed 😁
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"How's your short" you might ask (let's assume), and I will reply: everything is great with it. It's being adjusted. Of course, I started accumulating it too early, but experience shows that it's better with a short than without one.
I don't believe in a non-retractable rise 🙂
I don't believe in a non-retractable rise 🙂
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I don't like today's rise — it looks like the final throw of the price before a downward flight.
What will happen to the altcoins with the current dominance I have already written about.
What will happen to the altcoins with the current dominance I have already written about.
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📍BTC Dominance Returned to Annual High
Dominance $BTC has returned to its yearly high – 64.7%
We are literally 0.07% away from the absolute 😄
Next scenarios, watch closely:
If Bitcoin starts to fall (high probability), then the altcoins that haven't been dug up yet will be buried again, and by autumn, they will be forgotten.
If Bitcoin suddenly starts to go flat or rise (!), while dominance decreases, we could see a local mini-pump of digital junk — memes and low caps. The probability is small.
We are literally 0.07% away from the absolute 😄
Next scenarios, watch closely:
If Bitcoin starts to fall (high probability), then the altcoins that haven't been dug up yet will be buried again, and by autumn, they will be forgotten.
If Bitcoin suddenly starts to go flat or rise (!), while dominance decreases, we could see a local mini-pump of digital junk — memes and low caps. The probability is small.
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Yesterday I wrote down my targets for reduction: 103, 100, 97. I was shorting around 105-106 with a target of 97-98, but my hand trembled a bit, and I closed at 103 😄
Today the buying is quite sluggish, and particularly disappointing is the altcoin, which dropped harder yesterday but is recovering worse than Bitcoin (which is already a classic in this bull market). I accumulated part of the position where I closed yesterday. I will be adding higher if they give me the chance.
If James Wynn opens a long position again, then we can say the matter is settled.
Today the buying is quite sluggish, and particularly disappointing is the altcoin, which dropped harder yesterday but is recovering worse than Bitcoin (which is already a classic in this bull market). I accumulated part of the position where I closed yesterday. I will be adding higher if they give me the chance.
If James Wynn opens a long position again, then we can say the matter is settled.
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Yesterday I closed my short position early, opened at 105700, today I start packing a new one from 103400 and to wherever it goes (even to 110, which I don't believe — there's no liquidity in the markets). Target 98,000.
Today labor market data is coming out and considering yesterday's rapid plunge, I dare to assume that we will react to any whisper of the wind: Trump will say he has a cold, someone's dog will give birth.
Shorting Bitcoin is not scary, but altcoins are a bit scary, despite the fact that volatility is higher and with the current dominance, altcoins are repeating the movements of $BTC, but still Bitcoin is at its highs, while altcoins will have to be shorted from the bottom, so the idea doesn't look too good.
Regarding the fact that there will be no global altseason right now, I've been saying this since December, but still it's important to understand that with even the slightest decrease in dominance or a local rise in Bitcoin, altcoins may make a micro-pump.
By the way, if we look at the previous cycle, dominance could rise to 70%. What will happen if at such levels Bitcoin drops to 80,000, I don't want to imagine 🙂
Today labor market data is coming out and considering yesterday's rapid plunge, I dare to assume that we will react to any whisper of the wind: Trump will say he has a cold, someone's dog will give birth.
Shorting Bitcoin is not scary, but altcoins are a bit scary, despite the fact that volatility is higher and with the current dominance, altcoins are repeating the movements of $BTC, but still Bitcoin is at its highs, while altcoins will have to be shorted from the bottom, so the idea doesn't look too good.
Regarding the fact that there will be no global altseason right now, I've been saying this since December, but still it's important to understand that with even the slightest decrease in dominance or a local rise in Bitcoin, altcoins may make a micro-pump.
By the way, if we look at the previous cycle, dominance could rise to 70%. What will happen if at such levels Bitcoin drops to 80,000, I don't want to imagine 🙂
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I would like to believe that this is a correction, but it doesn't look like it: we are going down too systematically. The manipulation of the market usually looks like a sneeze – so that no one has time to say "mom" and jump in. Today, they preliminarily took it up so that fewer shorts had to be carried along, and then they confidently took it down.
Unfortunately, right now everything looks like we have every chance of entering a bear market.
What will happen to altcoins I have written about repeatedly — only memories will remain of them.
Unfortunately, right now everything looks like we have every chance of entering a bear market.
What will happen to altcoins I have written about repeatedly — only memories will remain of them.
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Well, congratulations: the trend has been broken, there is no reaction from buyers, and we are confidently falling.
It looks like we will close the week with a full engulfing.
The cycle is coming to an end. There are no questions about Bitcoin, but I expected more from altcoins even with my lowered expectations (a return of Ethereum to at least 3k), but this cycle has once again proven that the market is not as predictable as we would like and, most importantly, we should not place high hopes on it and not raise the risks.
Let's see what happens in the fall. I hope we return to at least December prices: I haven't disposed of anything in my portfolio 🙂
It looks like we will close the week with a full engulfing.
The cycle is coming to an end. There are no questions about Bitcoin, but I expected more from altcoins even with my lowered expectations (a return of Ethereum to at least 3k), but this cycle has once again proven that the market is not as predictable as we would like and, most importantly, we should not place high hopes on it and not raise the risks.
Let's see what happens in the fall. I hope we return to at least December prices: I haven't disposed of anything in my portfolio 🙂
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Spectacularly poured. For ath, it's currently canceled. The next stop is 102, then 100 and 97. There we will need to watch.
😁
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I don't want to lose $102,000 in Bitcoin, but it seems like I will have to: it looks like they will indeed bring us to 97. If long holders get stuck there, they will push it lower 🙂
Should I write about altcoins? What will happen to them starts with 'p' and ends with 'a'.
Should I write about altcoins? What will happen to them starts with 'p' and ends with 'a'.
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Trump, institutions, lunar cycles
Trump, institutional investors, lunar cycles – any explanation can be sought, but one thing is clear – this cycle is different from the previous ones.
If someone does not notice this, they are either not very observant or have difficulty adapting. But there is an opinion that building predictions based on 'it was like this in the previous cycle' can lead to significant surprises – that’s the first point. And secondly, I would like to ask a clarifying question: how many previous cycles has crypto had? 5? 10? Or just two? And is that enough to collect statistics? And especially to assert that it works 'like this'?
If someone does not notice this, they are either not very observant or have difficulty adapting. But there is an opinion that building predictions based on 'it was like this in the previous cycle' can lead to significant surprises – that’s the first point. And secondly, I would like to ask a clarifying question: how many previous cycles has crypto had? 5? 10? Or just two? And is that enough to collect statistics? And especially to assert that it works 'like this'?
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I will write a few more thoughts on $ETH ⬇️
In January, right before the dump, Ethereum was massively brought to exchanges. This was mentioned here and there, but no one really paid much attention to it. The result — the infamous February 3rd, the Wintermute manipulation, and the fall of Ethereum from $3400 to $2000.
Now, similarly, there are mentions here and there that Ethereum is being bought by BlackRock, while the reserves on exchanges are decreasing. This is just a hypothesis, but if suddenly one day we see a very "sudden" rapid increase in Ethereum, then we will also be offered "unexpected" explanations for this fact, namely — the staking ETF, which, like many other SEC applications, is being "marinated," something tells me, until the moment that the big players have pre-agreed. That’s why I believe that Ethereum can be held in spot, in a reasonable volume, and without expecting to make a profit the day after tomorrow.
In January, right before the dump, Ethereum was massively brought to exchanges. This was mentioned here and there, but no one really paid much attention to it. The result — the infamous February 3rd, the Wintermute manipulation, and the fall of Ethereum from $3400 to $2000.
Now, similarly, there are mentions here and there that Ethereum is being bought by BlackRock, while the reserves on exchanges are decreasing. This is just a hypothesis, but if suddenly one day we see a very "sudden" rapid increase in Ethereum, then we will also be offered "unexpected" explanations for this fact, namely — the staking ETF, which, like many other SEC applications, is being "marinated," something tells me, until the moment that the big players have pre-agreed. That’s why I believe that Ethereum can be held in spot, in a reasonable volume, and without expecting to make a profit the day after tomorrow.
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Welcome to the summer sideways trend
At the beginning of December, when crypto enthusiasts began to predict alt-season, Santa rally (some 'experts' even managed to buy during this time), I wrote that the alt-season is what is happening now and there will be no other alt-season in the near future.
Of course, I was told back then that I didn't understand anything and 'oh, I see, there's nothing to talk about,' they provided screenshots of posts from Twitter in 2020, where people also 'didn't believe,' but then...
Of course, I was told back then that I didn't understand anything and 'oh, I see, there's nothing to talk about,' they provided screenshots of posts from Twitter in 2020, where people also 'didn't believe,' but then...
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What's going on with the alt season, guys? Have you already made a lot of Xs?
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