dotkrueger

Recap of what @DarkSide2030_ @tomyoungjr
and I have been saying on BitBonds.

1. It is critical to understand that the issuer of these BitBonds will generally have ZERO exposure to Bitcoin.

2. In all cases, an intermediary such as Cantor will swap the BitBond cash flows for fixed rate or floating rate debt, so the issue just gets CHEAPER debt.

3. These bonds will be insta-hits with retail investors who do want exposure to Bitcoin. Why? Because they can be structured to offer high coupons and/or high yields under relatively modest BTC CAGR assumptions.

4. We know this because of SRTF, SRTK issued by MSTR. A BitBond issued by a Sovreign, or a Muni with triple tax free status yielding 10% effectively would be a nuclear bomb.

5. The US Created the first Nuke in 1945 at Los Alamos. But the Russians got the bomb just four years later in 1949. Now 9 countries have it. Saylor created the first Bitcoin Nuke in 2024. Now, in 2025 lots of others will become nuclear treasuries.

6. Ultimately the issuers of BBAAS (BitBonds as a Service) will keep the residual Bitcoin. This is how they end up with "more Bitcoin than Saylor".

Recap of what @DarkSide2030_ @tomyoungjr
and I have been saying on BitBonds.

1. It is critical to understand that the issuer of these BitBonds will generally have ZERO exposure to Bitcoin.

2. In all cases, an intermediary such as Cantor will swap the BitBond cash flows for fixed rate or floating rate debt, so the issue just gets CHEAPER debt.

3. These bonds will be insta-hits with retail investors who do want exposure to Bitcoin. Why? Because they can be structured to offer high coupons and/or high yields under relatively modest BTC CAGR assumptions.

4. We know this because of SRTF, SRTK issued by MSTR. A BitBond issued by a Sovreign, or a Muni with triple tax free status yielding 10% effectively would be a nuclear bomb.

5. The US Created the first Nuke in 1945 at Los Alamos. But the Russians got the bomb just four years later in 1949. Now 9 countries have it. Saylor created the first Bitcoin Nuke in 2024. Now, in 2025 lots of others will become nuclear treasuries.

BREAKING🚨🚨 Stupidity Quiz.
Take this quiz to assess your levels

You score 1 point for every Yes answer.

1. Do you keep Bitcoin on Coinbase?

2. If some cute asian girl DMs you on X, do you respond?

3. Somebody calls you from Google and asks for your password. Do you give it?

4. Do you pay for Gareth Solloway's Trading Course?

5. Did you attend Gary V's NFT conference?

6. Did you pass on Bitcoin "because of the high price"?

7. Do you actually believe in an "Omega Candle" ?

8. Do you trade based on "Slow Stochastics" ?

9. Did you buy James Lavish's "Trading Course" ?

10. If an influencer DMs you asking for money and promises to pay you back 2x do you do it?

SCORE:

0: You are not stupid.

1-5: You are pretty stupid.

6-10: You have reached peak stupidity. Congrats.

Stupidity Quiz.

You score 1 point for every Yes answer.

1. Do you keep Bitcoin on Coinbase?

2. If some cute asian girl DMs you on X, do you respond?

3. Somebody calls you from Google and asks for your password. Do you give it?

4. Do you pay for Gareth Solloway's Trading Course?

5. Did you attend Gary V's NFT conference?

6. Did you pass on Bitcoin "because of the high price"?

7. Do you actually believe in an "Omega Candle" ?

8. Do you trade based on "Slow Stochastics" ?

9. Did you buy James Lavish's "Trading Course" ?

10. If an influencer DMs you asking for money and promises to pay you back 2x do you do it?

SCORE:

0: You are not stupid.

1-5: You are pretty stupid.

6-10: You have reached peak stupidity. Congrats.

Stupidity Quiz.
You score 1 point for every Yes answer.

1. Do you keep Bitcoin on Coinbase?

2. If some cute asian girl DMs you on X, do you respond?

3. Somebody calls you from Google and asks for your password. Do you give it?

4. Do you pay for Gareth Solloway's Trading Course?

5. Did you attend Gary V's NFT conference?

6. Did you pass on Bitcoin "because of the high price"?

7. Do you actually believe in an "Omega Candle" ?

8. Do you trade based on "Slow Stochastics" ?

9. Did you buy James Lavish's "Trading Course" ?

10. If an influencer DMs you asking for money and promises to pay you back 2x do you do it?

SCORE:

0: You are not stupid.

1-5: You are pretty stupid.

6-10: You have reached peak stupidity. Congrats.

Josh Mandel has the pulse of the market.
If I was trading, I would watch his signal carefully.

I'm much more of a Hodler, but i have a lot of respect for his track record.

https://x.com/i/spaces/1lDGLzjrAmzxm

Amazing Space: Focus on BitBonds

we'll be discussing BitBonds in a second.
Wanted to show a new variant I just thought up

High Credit Issuer: Nike
Bond Amount: 100 Million
Principal: Guaranteed. (zero risk of loss)

Issuer pays 35% worth of Bitcoin, and pays out up to 10 Million per year in Interest.

At 35% CAGR, this equates to 10% Interest Payment, Guaranteed Principal, and a final payment of 2.5x the invested capital

The fact that Blackrock and Strategy both have their Bitcoin on Coinbase is ...

In January 2023, a "Bitcoin Treasury Company" called GBTC was trading at a 45% discount.

The only question on anybody's mind was how to get that discount to disappear. The answer to everybody, including GBTC who extracted a 2% fee on its 650,000 BTC was to convert to an ETF.

Now, just 2.5 years later, the exact same concept is being revived as "genius", and it is automatically assumed that these things should trade at a 200% premium.

Without passing judgement on whether these things are good investments or not -- it's just amazing that we could have gone between these two extremes this quickly.

Bitcoin is the ultimate "collectable".

Fred's 3 rules of Bitcoin

1. Put the books down.
2. Man Up.
3. Put your nuts on the chopping block.

Generally, people over analyze too much.

Bitcoin is amazing tech.
It works.
It is the top performing asset 13 of the last 15 years.

Stop with the analysis.
Buy it.
Don't trade it.
Don't look for "entry points".
And don't do a 1% allocation either.

Grow a pair.

Generally, people over analyze too much.

Bitcoin is amazing tech.
It works.
It is the top performing asset 13 of the last 15 years.

Stop with the analysis.
Buy it.
Don't trade it.
Don't look for "entry points".

We will discuss BitBonds tomorrow.
Link to my short slides on BitBonds in comments

If you still have Bitcoin on Coinbase, congrats.
You are in fact a true idiot.

You tend to sleep better being long Bitcoin than stocks.

Unless you are massively leveraged

Lots of people are showing "evidence" that Bitcoin volatility is structurally headed down.

I disagree. I think we will see a lot of volatility as the markets thin out over the next year with very little "free supply".

This is a point @DarkSide2030_ has made.

"What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party."

Jim Chanos trying to arb MSTR is bullish for BTC.