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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting today, July 30, 2025, to decide on the federal funds rate, which is currently sitting at 4.25%–4.5%. The consensus from recent reports and market sentiment is that the Fed will likely hold rates steady at this meeting. Here's why:
- Inflation Concerns: Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE inflation projected at 3.1% for 2025, up from 2.8% earlier this year. Trump’s tariff policies are expected to push prices higher, making the Fed cautious about cutting rates too soon.
- Economic Growth: The economy is growing slower than expected, with GDP forecasts for 2025 at around 1.5%–1.7%, down from 2.1% in late 2024. But recent data like retail sales and consumer confidence have been stronger than anticipated, reducing the urgency for a cut.
- Labor Market: Unemployment is low at 4.1%, but hiring is slowing, and the Fed is keeping an eye on potential weakening in the job market.
- Market Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch tool, there’s a 97.9% chance the Fed keeps rates unchanged today, with only a 2.1% chance of a cut. However, markets are pricing in a 64.7% chance of a rate cut in September, signaling a potential shift later this year.
The Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference later today (around 2:00 PM ET) will be key. Investors are looking for hints about future rate cuts, with the Fed previously projecting two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, likely starting in September or later.
What Could Happen?
Here are the possible scenarios for today’s announcement:
1. Rates Stay Unchanged (Most Likely):
- The Fed holds rates at 4.25%–4.5%, citing inflation risks from tariffs and a resilient economy. Powell might emphasize a “data-dependent” approach, waiting for clearer signs that inflation is cooling.
- If Powell sounds dovish (hinting at future cuts), markets could get a boost. If he’s hawkish (focused on inflation), we might see some short-term market jitters.
- Political pressure is also a factor. Trump has been vocal about wanting lower rates and has even called for Powell’s resignation, which could lead to some tension in the press conference.

2. Surprise Rate Cut (Unlikely):
- A 25-basis-point cut would signal the Fed is more worried about economic slowdown than inflation. This is unlikely given recent data, but it could happen if the Fed sees tariffs as a short-term inflation spike rather than a long-term issue.
- This would likely spark a rally in risk assets like stocks and crypto.

3. No Change but Strong Guidance:
- The Fed could reaffirm its plan for two cuts in 2025 or adjust expectations based on new economic projections. If they signal fewer cuts (e.g., only one in 2025), it could dampen market enthusiasm. Conversely, a clear commitment to cuts could fuel optimism.

How Could This Impact the Crypto Market?
Crypto markets are sensitive to interest rate changes because they affect liquidity, investor risk appetite, and the US dollar’s strength. Here’s how today’s announcement might play out:

- If Rates Stay Unchanged (Expected):
- Short-Term Volatility: Crypto markets often get choppy around FOMC announcements due to traders adjusting positions. Bitcoin dropped 4% ahead of the December 2024 rate cut, and similar pullbacks have been noted recently.
- Powell’s Tone Matters: If Powell hints at rate cuts in September or later, crypto could rally as investors anticipate more liquidity and a “risk-on” environment. A hawkish tone could pressure prices downward, especially for altcoins, as investors shift to safer assets like bonds.
- Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Bitcoin often holds up better than altcoins in uncertain times due to its perceived stability and institutional backing (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs). Altcoins like Ethereum might see bigger swings if Powell’s comments shift risk sentiment.
- If Rates Are Cut (Unlikely):
- Bullish for Crypto: Lower rates increase liquidity, making borrowing cheaper and encouraging investment in riskier assets like crypto. Bitcoin and altcoins typically rally in low-rate environments, as seen in 2020 when Bitcoin surged after rate cuts.
- Weaker Dollar: A rate cut could weaken the US dollar, making Bitcoin more attractive as a store of value or inflation hedge.
- Development Boost: Lower rates could spur more funding for crypto projects, as seen with venture capital investments like Andreessen Horowitz’s $515M fund in 2020.
- Long-Term Outlook:
- Crypto has been on a tear in 2025, with $BTC up 15% year-to-date and close to its all-time high of $112,000. The “Trump trade” (pro-crypto policies, Bitcoin reserve plans) has fueled gains, but a “sell the news” event could occur if rate cut expectations are delayed
- Regulatory clarity (e.g., stablecoin legislation, SEC exemptions) and institutional adoption (Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries) are bigger drivers for crypto than rates alone.
- Global liquidity and a weaker dollar might have a stronger impact on Bitcoin than Fed rate changes, according to some analysts.
What’s the Vibe on X?
Sentiment on X is buzzing with FOMC talk:
- Most users expect no rate cut today but are hopeful for dovish signals from Powell about future cuts. They see this as potentially bullish for crypto, especially if September cut odds rise.
- Some are hyped about a possible rally in Bitcoin and altcoins if Powell sounds dovish, with Ethereum potentially outperforming Bitcoin in a risk-on environment.
- There’s chatter about volatility today, with traders bracing for swings in Bitcoin and altcoins. Some are calling it a “red folder trade day” due to GDP and FOMC data dropping together.
- One outlier post claims Powell will cut rates today, predicting a massive crypto rally, but this seems speculative and not backed by broader data.

My Take (Not a financial advice):
The Fed’s probably gonna keep rates steady today, bro, but the real action is in Powell’s press conference. If he drops hints about cuts coming soon, crypto could catch a wave, especially Bitcoin and maybe $ETH if altcoins get some love. Expect some price swings today—$BTC ’s around $117.9k but could dip or pop depending on Powell’s vibe. Long-term, crypto’s looking solid with Trump’s pro-crypto moves and institutional money flowing in, but a hawkish Fed could keep things choppy for now. Keep an eye on those ETF inflows and regulatory news—they’re huge for crypto’s next leg up
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