defioasis

Two formulas to remember when brushing Binance Alpha:

- Total airdrop value = Number of airdrop users * Average airdrop amount

- Total airdrop value = Opening FDV * Share of airdrop tokens

The opening FDV and share of airdrop tokens are negotiated between Binance and the project parties. Before Alpha 2.0, Binance launched many VCcoin spot trades at overestimated valuations, which basically resulted in high openings and low declines, having no wealth effect, and the most direct impact was that no one played on Binance, causing a loss of funds within the platform. Now Binance is clearly aiming to compress the valuation of VCcoin project parties to between 20-50 million. If 5% of the total token supply is allocated to Alpha users, the airdrop value would be approximately 1-2.5 million USD.

After determining the total airdrop value, Binance also needs to ensure that the average amount received by users is at a moderate level to avoid the airdrop becoming irrelevant. If the goal is to keep the airdrop amount per user around 70-100 USD, the number of airdrop users would be approximately 10,000 to 35,000.

Observations show that the number of users receiving airdrops is usually around 20,000 to 30,000, while points are used to filter out these 20,000 to 30,000 users. As the points inflate, Binance has also introduced a mechanism where claiming an airdrop requires spending points, adding a layer of dynamic competition to prevent the strong from becoming stronger and giving newcomers some opportunities. 20,000 to 30,000 airdrop users, but it cannot always just be the same batch of 20,000 to 30,000 users.

Therefore, it can be said that Adventure Island NXPC is indeed a miraculous project. In a situation where the increase in the user base for airdrops is not so significant, it directly surged from 100 million FDV at opening to over 3 billion, and the airdrop value is also the highest ever in Alpha 2.0..

Measure the platform's assets by the SOL balance of monthly traders on the Meme trading platform

April:
Axiom 211,487 SOL Month-on-month growth 113.4%📈

Photon 72,102 SOL Month-on-month growth 9.6%📈

BullX 45,607 SOL Month-on-month decline 23.4%📉

GMGN 29,526 SOL Month-on-month growth 15.3%📈

Vector 2,543 SOL Month-on-month decline 19.2%📉

Ave 2,292 SOL Month-on-month growth 123.6%📈
(Not deduplicated)

In April, the monthly trader balances of the four leading platforms Axiom + Photon + BullX + GMGN reached 358,722 SOL, with a month-on-month growth of 43.5%, also surpassing February (311,209 SOL), and nearing the level of last December (374,053 SOL). Although it cannot be compared to January, which gave birth to TRUMP, the potential purchasing power on the chain is recovering

I believe the recovery of potential purchasing power will gradually reflect in the on-chain trading volume in the coming months, perhaps it just needs a spark to ignite the straw.

The issuance end of assets is dominated by a few players, while the trading end is highly competitive. However, there is still a distribution phase between issuance and trading that is gaining more attention and being productized into services. Previously, the distribution phase was largely controlled by VCs, but it has now become more decentralized.

Asset distribution can indeed be seen as a business of traffic and advertising. Whether it's KOL agencies or Kaito, who goes back and forth, the essence of the traffic business is how to allocate the project party's tokens through the distribution channel of major influencers and occupy the high ground of public opinion and user mindset. This creates a high demand for tokens on the product side.

For instant distribution focused purely on assets, online live audio platforms like SideKick are a good choice. The essence is the logic of live-streaming sales, where Meme KOLs transform into hosts, monitoring trends and pushing Memes, packaging Meme CA as 'products'. A Meme CA is embedded as a purchase link at the bottom of the live room, allowing viewers to place orders directly while watching.

This is very similar to Douyin's approach to e-commerce. There is a saying that goes, 'What defeats you may not be your peers, but those from other industries.' SideKick commercializes Meme, provides a stage for KOLs to drive sales, and viewers place orders due to resonance, collectively pushing up the price of Memes. In this process, asset distribution and trading are completed, and the platform profits by taxing transactions.

Of course, how to drive viewer emotions to watch and buy is indeed a challenge. Although it seems there are many viewers from SideKick's front end, the actual Livestream Volume on-chain is still very low. It is still at the stage of just watching without buying, partly because there are still too few top hosts focusing on Meme asset live streams.

Is the spring of DeFi coming? After Trump was elected president, the four sectors with the highest growth in the past 24 hours were all DeFi related

- LST rose by more than 27%
- Yield Farming rose by more than 26.8%
- Stablecoin Protocol rose by more than 26.6%
- Lending/Borrowing Zhang Chao 25.8%

【On-chain Investigation】In the last 24 hours, RUNE (THORChain) has dropped by 15%, a mysterious Kraken whale sell-off has caused panic in the community, but Kraken stated that the trades are compliant.

Whale: thor1j5ju…298n withdrew 2,849,998.62 RUNE (worth approximately $12.35 million) from Kraken in three transactions between 0:00-0:49 UTC+8 today.

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Subsequently, whale: thor1j5ju…298n sold 1,850,000 RUNE, 1,000 RUNE, and 998,998.58 RUNE directly through ThorSwap to exchange for BTC, causing panic in the community.

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Such bizarre behavior quickly drew the attention of Node Operators in THORChain, interrupting swap transactions. The responsibility of Node Operators is to verify transactions in the network, especially the security of cross-chain transactions, and to halt signing and interrupt transactions in the event of potential abnormal transactions.

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THORChain Node Operators Nine Realms sought assistance from Kraken Support, confirming that whale: thor1j5ju…298n's withdrawal from Kraken was a compliant transaction.

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Whale: thor1j5ju…298n could only partially complete the transaction through ThorSwap, such as exchanging 1,850,000 THOR (approximately $8.02 million) for 3.618 BTC (approximately $246,000); and 998,998.58 RUNE (approximately $4.33 million) for 6 BTC (approximately $408,000).

In total, 2,849,998.62 RUNE only partially exchanged successfully for 9.6914 BTC.

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This caused whale: thor1j5ju…298n to become dissatisfied, transferring all 2,705,679 RUNE from the address to Binance, or starting to continue selling using Binance liquidity;

The 9.6914 BTC that was partially exchanged on-chain was also transferred back to Kraken, which can also be seen as compliant user behavior, thus it should be regarded as a whale sell-off action.

After reviewing several CEX listing application forms, it is clear that Binance has significantly more detailed requirements for listings, at least from the perspective of actively applying through the form.

Binance Listing has three Key Questions:
Key Question A: Current valuation (valuation from the last financing round or expected valuation at TGE)
Key Question B: What category does the project belong to?
Key Question C: What percentage of the total supply is allocated to community users?

In addition to the common questions that all platforms have, Binance also has some unique or interesting questions:
① Referrer: Listing BD Manager/Labs portfolio/BNB Chain Grants project/Others
② Three methods of listing application: Direct listing/Launchpool/Megadrop
③ What benefits does it bring to Binance?
④ Provide rough statistical data and on-chain proof/reference sites to verify user numbers, community size and activity, and community demographics
⑤ Competitors, differentiation compared to competitors
⑥ Is it open to launching on BNB Chain?
⑦ Are you willing to lower the project valuation, and can the unlocking schedule be extended?

This year's four major dead-level Layer2 since TGE day, data sourced from L2Beat and CoinGecko (all values are $59,085,309,397)

StarkNet from February 21 to present
- TVL $1.22 billion -> $632 million, down 38.2%
- MC $1.399 billion -> $771 million, down 44.89%
- FDV $19.5 billion -> $3.67 billion, down 81.2%

ZKsync from June 18 to present
- TVL $1.54 billion -> $834 million, down 45.8% (Canonically assets represented by ETH dropped from $716 million to $329 million, down 54.1%)
- MC $788 million -> $477 million, down 39.5%
- FDV $4.51 billion -> $2.72 billion, down 39.7%

Blast from June 27 to present
- TVL $3.37 billion -> $1.38 billion, down 59%
- MC $468 million -> $170 million, down 63.7%
- FDV $2.724 billion -> $784 million, down 71.2%

Scroll from October 23 to present
- TVL $1.54 billion -> $1.02 billion, down 33.8% (Canonically assets represented by ETH dropped from $330 million to $255 million, down 22.7%)
- MC $253 million -> $128 million, down 49.4%
- FDV $1.33 billion -> $673 million, down 49.5%

Conclusion: This year's latest TGE Scroll's TVL drop matches the earliest TGE's StarkNet; the SCR token market value drop exceeds that of ZK and STRK.

For the low welfare number, the $SCR airdrop actually feels quite good, especially in the case of having ENS. On one hand, it indeed lowers the expectations for Scroll very low; on the other hand, the low welfare single number has stored 0.2 ETH for about three months, and then used the Tranchess-turPSTONE & staYSTONE strategy to achieve a 2x Marks accumulation speed, earning a badge and barely reaching the 200 marks threshold; finally, it all relied on ENS, aside from using the Tranchess strategy, there were almost no other transactions made on-chain. It was calculated that the low welfare number 0.2 ETH (500u) gained ~90u $SCR annually, which also has a 50% return.

Revealing the whales who transferred tens of millions of SUI to Binance, OKX, etc. during the rise of SUI. The tokens originally came from Sui Foundation

Foreword: Light said that during the rise of SUI, Insiders, a suspected large foundation wallet, sold about $400 million in tokens. Sui Foundation replied that although Light did not publish the address, no insiders, foundations, or employees sold it, and believed that Light was referring to Sui's infrastructure partners

Through on-chain data, Light should be referring to the pledge account 0x7f3b…3239e4 and the associated address groups 0xbe90…950aa8 and 0x457f…6715e7, etc.

The pledge account 0x7f3b…3239e4 currently pledges 183 million SUI, which is now worth about $418 million. Since late June, 0xbe90…950aa8 has redeemed more than 82.6 million SUI from the staking account. This address 0xbe90…950aa8 exists more as a transit address (currently 0xbe90…950aa8 still holds about 10 million SUI), and then it will be split as much as possible in a small but high-frequency form to 0x457f…6715e7, which is closely related to Binance, OKX and Bybit exchanges, and then enter these exchanges.

Clayop discovered in August last year that the staking account 0x7f3b…3239e4 is inextricably linked to the Sui Foundation, and the sale from this account (transfer to CEX) is not just a recent thing. The initial 310 million SUI in the pledge account 0x7f3b…3239e4 was transferred from the Sui Foundation: 0x341f…17fae1 (it is considered to be the Sui Foundation because it pledged 2.36 billion SUI, of which 2.25 billion was pledged and 107.6 million was pledged as rewards).

In addition, the Korean media Block Media also noticed the above wallet dynamics in June this year. It pointed out that from the Sui Foundation: 0x341f…17fae1 -> pledge account 0x7f3b…3239e4 -> distribution address 0xbe90…950aa8, no tokens were transferred to Upbit, but to Binance, OKX and Bybit, which may also be related to Travel Rules.

Upbit had a very large trading volume in the early days of SUI, and is still the second largest SUI trading market after Binance, with Binance accounting for 16.5% and Upbit accounting for about 7.5%. In the early days of SUI listing, Upbit once occupied more than 20% of the trading volume.Last year, SUI was the subject of controversy in a South Korean parliamentary audit due to its opaque allocation management.

Binance's combination of Launchpool and pre-market is a great move, which is equivalent to forming a monopoly market

Currently, the circulation of Scroll pre-market is 5.5% of the total volume of BN Launchpool, that is, 55 million SCR, worth about 66 million US dollars

However, Binance's position limit of 2,500 SCR (about 3,000 US dollars) for buyers is a bit confusing, which also leads to a huge difference in the depth of buy and sell orders, which is about 1:6, and the volume of sell orders is nearly 8 million US dollars

According to the logic of real estate speculation, does it mean that the purchase limit means price increase? 🤣

Why are they keen on speculating on memecoin and don't want to take over VC? We can see from Scroll's so-called airdrop rules:

- Scroll gave BN Launchpool 5.5% of the total tokens, and it only took two days to mine, while the first drop of the airdrop farming that took a long time for retail investors was only 7%
- The airdrop snapshot date was set ten days after the announcement date, providing an opportunity for large investors/institutions to come in and roll in. They only need to mine for ten days to get out of the game, and the shares of long-term investors, especially retail investors, are further diluted

VCcoin has been doing business with to cex and large investors/institutions since the beginning of TGE. The essence of airdrop is to distribute more tokens to their own people or those who are beneficial to them. Whether it is for the project party, large investors/institutions, or even exchanges, retail investors are in a weak position. It's good for retail investors to have soup to drink, and the golden age of pursuing excess returns has long passed.

Memecoin provides a fair opportunity while also rewarding degen. In the early stage, degen can make profits through sniping and PvP; ordinary retail investors work together through CTO to build a meme with a narrative. Although it is a life-and-death struggle, not everyone can grow to a market value of tens of millions or hundreds of millions, but as hot money flows in Memecoin, more or less, they can always find a profit angle. Coupled with the various incentives of getting rich quickly by going to memecoin, retail investors will be more fomo. The power of retail investors working together cannot be underestimated, which is why all major public chains have to engage in pump. Throughout the process, the project party can be everyone, big players cannot enter the market with large funds, institutions cannot participate openly, and exchanges are the exit liquidity on the meme chain in the later stage. These things that VCcoin relies on and is proud of have been pulled to a relatively equal status in memecoin, allowing them to release all the upward space that was squeezed in the early stage.

Playing Tugou is like buying a lottery ticket. In addition to being patient, you must also be patient and forget about it. It is recommended to read it three times a day before going to bed: It is difficult to make a lot of money if you have obsessions in your heart; if you have no obsessions, you will return to zero.

Since the end of September, there has been a large number of staked ENA unstaking and redemption requests (redemption has a 7-day waiting period), or potential selling pressure in response to the S2 ENA airdrop

- From September 25 to October 2, about 82.5 million ENA (~26.8 million US dollars) have entered the redemption request queue

- October 1 was the second highest single-day peak in historical redemption requests, reaching 21.95 million ENA (~7.14 million US dollars)

- On October 2, 428 million ENA (~152 million US dollars) began to unlock, accounting for 22% of the circulation, belonging to Airdrop Season 2 (claim on October 3). Specifically divided into two parts: 106,768,233 ENA from non-Top 2k Wallets, 100% claim and unlcok; 321,615,883 ENA from Top 2k Wallets, 50% unlcok first, the rest will be unlocked linearly within 6 months, unlocked once a week

- Next, we need to pay attention to the situation of the airdrop big holders, and turn the airdrop to CEX for staking or

A new wallet: 0x20...902e locked 588,325.94 $PENDLE to Pendle at 23:54 UTC+8 on October 2, worth about 2.22 million US dollars, with an expiration date of December 26

- The user of this new address withdrew 588,325.94 $PENDLE from Binance at 18:27 UTC+8 on October 2, with a withdrawal price of about $3.82

Hyperliquid Trader: 2TheMoon suffered a net loss of more than $5.5 million in the BTC crash in the past 24 hours

- The current position is worth about $55 million, with an average price of $63,674.8 for 20X BTC Long, a forced liquidation price of $57,332.99, and a floating loss of about $2 million (the position value once exceeded $150 million)

- All time PnL losses expanded to -$13.4 million, ROI -76.3%

Hyperliquid Trader: 2TheMoon Address: 0x1dc67adaf9f163c5b1a95043addbdfa1af58e512

Roughly speaking, the initial circulation of $EIGEN that is about to open should only be the airdrop part. Considering that the pledge requires a 7-day redemption period, it can be further evolved into S1 claimed + S2 claimed-Delegated, which is approximately equal to 50 million pieces.

According to pre-market calculations, $EIGEN MC is about 200 million US dollars, and FDV is about 6.7 billion US dollars

[On-chain survey] EIGEN airdrops and flows of LRTs
Everyone feels that the number of EIGEN airdrops that S2 can receive has obviously decreased. Does LRT have any reservations?
Conclusion: From the on-chain data, except for Ether Fi, which has retained 396,653.55 EIGEN (worth about 1.5 million US dollars before the market), the EIGEN airdrops received by the other mainstream LRTs from EigenLayer have all entered the user distribution contract in full. However, it should be noted that the points are not on the chain. Even if the total number of on-chain airdrops is fully distributed, there are still cases where centralized points are incorrectly counted.

- The total EIGEN airdrops obtained by Ether Fi in S2 are 16,580,752.78 EIGEN, the largest among all LRTs, of which 16,184,099.23 EIGEN are from EtherFi's claim contract: 0x97...9342 to the user-oriented distribution contract: 0x2E...EcE1; EtherFi's claim contract: 0x97...9342 also retains 396,653.55 EIGEN (about 1.5 million US dollars), perhaps the share reserved by the team itself?

- The total EIGEN airdrops obtained by Renzo in S2 are 9,410,607.41 EIGEN, the second largest LRT. All EIGEN airdrops received by Renzo are transferred from the collection contract: 0x67...91c8 to the user-oriented distribution contract: 0xc1...4fCa, distributed through Liquifi and allowed to be claimed by users.

- The total number of EIGEN airdrops obtained by Puffer in S2 is 4,978,962.38 EIGEN, which are transferred twice in the collection contract: 0xAA...Bf26 to the user-oriented distribution contract: 0x5A...B412.
Although the full amount of airdrops on the chain enter the distribution contract, due to errors in the data returned by zklink, some users received more EIGEN airdrops, which also shows the centralization risk of points. Of course, Puffer actively responded to the problem and will compensate the affected users with 50% of the future token PUFFER.

- The total amount of EIGEN airdrops obtained by KelpDAO in S2 is 3,105,085.93 EIGEN, all of which enter the user-oriented distribution contract: 0xc1...A27A.

- The total amount of EIGEN airdrops obtained by Swell in S2 is 1,408,243.36 EIGEN, all of which enter the user-oriented distribution contract: 0x26...eFd3.

- The total amount of EIGEN airdrops obtained by EigenPie in S2 is 905,871.39 EIGEN, all of which enter the user-oriented distribution contract: 0xEC...59b3.

- The total amount of EIGEN airdrops obtained by StakeStone in S2 is 760,276.51 EIGEN, all enter the user-oriented distribution contract: 0x90...680f.

#HMSTR开盘
Hamster Kombat, which claims to have 100 million monthly active users, is finally launched. Unlike DOGS, Binance is the biggest winner in capturing HMSTR capital flow
- Binance pre-deposit exceeds 6.2 billion HMSTR. The current Binance HMSTR balance has reached 18 billion, accounting for 18%, far ahead of other exchanges
- The biggest competitor bybit pre-deposit is 3 billion HMSTR, less than 1/2 of Binance. You should know that bybit DOGS pre-deposit was higher than Binance at that time
- At present, the HMSTR Balance of each CEX is Binance (18%)＞bybit (4.6%)＞OKX (4.1%)