David Sacks
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The Numbers:
3.8% Q2 GDP Growth (Atlanta Fed estimate)
139,000 jobs added in May (above 126,000 expected)
Inflation at 0.1% MoM (vs 0.2 expected) and 2.4% YoY
Trade deficit cut in half
Polymarket odds of recession down from 66% in April to 23% today
Trump approval +6 in Morning Consult, +7 in Rasmussen
Democrat Party approval -49 in Quinnipiac
3.8% Q2 GDP Growth (Atlanta Fed estimate)
139,000 jobs added in May (above 126,000 expected)
Inflation at 0.1% MoM (vs 0.2 expected) and 2.4% YoY
Trade deficit cut in half
Polymarket odds of recession down from 66% in April to 23% today
Trump approval +6 in Morning Consult, +7 in Rasmussen
Democrat Party approval -49 in Quinnipiac
To win the AI race, let the private sector cook.
The main way to stop drones is to jam the signal from the operator. This creates a strong incentive for drone warfare to become autonomous as quickly as possible. (This is just an observation, not a policy recommendation.)
The future of AI has become a Rorschach test where everyone sees what they want. The Left envisions a post-economic order in which people stop working and instead receive government benefits. In other words, everyone on welfare. This is their fantasy; it’s not going to happen.
MOUNTAINHEAD costume designer Susan Lyall on the All-In Pod: “It was a very good source of research for me. One of the hosts, Chamath Palihapitiya, went to the inauguration of President Donald Trump and he showed pictures of all the things he wore. I couldn't believe it. He had a Loro Piana jacket here and a Brunello Cucinelli there — he obviously really knew his stuff.”
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Nobody was caught more off guard by the DeepSeek moment than the AI Doomers.
They had been claiming:
— that the U.S. was years ahead in AI;
— that PRC leadership didn’t care much about AI;
— that China would prioritize stability over disruption; and
— that if the U.S. slowed down AI development, China would slow down too.
All of this turned out to be profoundly wrong. Now, ironically, many of the Doomers — who prior to DeepSeek had tried to ban American models now currently in use — are trying to rebrand as “China Hawks.” If they had their way, the U.S. would have already lost the AI race!
They had been claiming:
— that the U.S. was years ahead in AI;
— that PRC leadership didn’t care much about AI;
— that China would prioritize stability over disruption; and
— that if the U.S. slowed down AI development, China would slow down too.
All of this turned out to be profoundly wrong. Now, ironically, many of the Doomers — who prior to DeepSeek had tried to ban American models now currently in use — are trying to rebrand as “China Hawks.” If they had their way, the U.S. would have already lost the AI race!
Which is AI more likely to cause?
Imagine you had a humanoid robot. You could teach it to do anything. When it recharged, it could upload its learnings (on an anonymized basis) to all the other robots. It could be the most powerful data network effect in history.
The Black Monday Hoax was Monday April 7. The media had spent all weekend trying to engineer a panic. If you sold or went short, you lost a fortune.
The Biden administration’s policy on AI:
— Insert DEI requirements into AI, making it WokeAI.
— Hobble American AI companies with a hundred pages of unnecessary regulation (Biden E.O.).
— Burden American semiconductor, data center, and cloud companies with 200 pages of unnecessary regulation (Biden Diffusion Rule).
— Limit energy production and permitting, making massive data center build-out impossible.
— Exclude the countries with the largest sovereign wealth funds from partnering with Team America on AI.
What was their goal? To lose the AI race?
— Insert DEI requirements into AI, making it WokeAI.
— Hobble American AI companies with a hundred pages of unnecessary regulation (Biden E.O.).
— Burden American semiconductor, data center, and cloud companies with 200 pages of unnecessary regulation (Biden Diffusion Rule).
— Limit energy production and permitting, making massive data center build-out impossible.
— Exclude the countries with the largest sovereign wealth funds from partnering with Team America on AI.
What was their goal? To lose the AI race?
Politics is "mainly a brainwashing competition" and to deprogram yourself, "the first step is recognizing you're in a hallucination created by media." @ScottAdamsSays insights and humor are brilliant, unique, irreplaceable. Praying for him.
After the Sam Bankrun-Fraud fiasco, it was necessary for the Effective Altruists to rebrand. So they are trying to position themselves as “China Hawks.” But their tech deceleration agenda is the same, and it would cost America the AI race with China.
I’m genuinely perplexed how any self-proclaimed “China Hawk” can claim that President Trump’s AI deals with UAE and Saudi Arabia aren’t hugely beneficial for the United States. As leading semiconductor analyst Dylan Patel observed, these deals “will noticeably shift the balance of power” in America’s favor. The only question you need to ask is: does China wish it had made these deals? Yes of course it does. But President Trump got there first and beat them to the punch.
Writing in NYT, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt warns that “China Tech Is Starting to Pull Ahead”:
“China is at parity or pulling ahead of the United States in a variety of technologies, notably at the A.I. frontier. And it has developed a real edge in how it disseminates, commercializes and manufactures tech. History has shown us that those who adopt and diffuse a technology the fastest win.”
As he points out, diffusing a technology the fastest — and relatedly, I would add, building the largest partner ecosystem — are the keys to winning. Yet when Washington introduced an “AI Diffusion Rule”, it was almost 200 pages of regulation hindering adoption of American technology, even by close partners.
The Diffusion Rule is on its way out, but other regulations loom.
President Trump committed to rescind 10 regulations for every new regulation that is added.
If the U.S. doesn’t embrace this mentality with respect to AI, we will lose the AI race.
“China is at parity or pulling ahead of the United States in a variety of technologies, notably at the A.I. frontier. And it has developed a real edge in how it disseminates, commercializes and manufactures tech. History has shown us that those who adopt and diffuse a technology the fastest win.”
As he points out, diffusing a technology the fastest — and relatedly, I would add, building the largest partner ecosystem — are the keys to winning. Yet when Washington introduced an “AI Diffusion Rule”, it was almost 200 pages of regulation hindering adoption of American technology, even by close partners.
The Diffusion Rule is on its way out, but other regulations loom.
President Trump committed to rescind 10 regulations for every new regulation that is added.
If the U.S. doesn’t embrace this mentality with respect to AI, we will lose the AI race.
THE 1,000,000X BOOST
AI will become a million times more powerful during the Trump presidency. People find this hard to believe. Let’s break it down.
AI models are improving at a rate of about 3-4x per year. One can see this in the performance evaluations, the capabilities, the user experience, and the growth of the ecosystem. Compounding at that rate yields an order of magnitude improvement (10x) in two years and two orders of magnitude (100x) in four years.
Similarly, the chips are improving at a rate of about 3-4x per year. One can see this in the progress of Nvidia’s GPUs from Hopper to Blackwell and soon Ruben and Feynman. The progress is not just in logic but also in memory bandwidth (HBM) and rack architecture (eg NVL72). So a similar 100x improvement in chip performance over 4 years.
Finally, the data centers powering AI are growing. A state-of-the-art cluster like Colossus had about 100,000 GPUs a year ago. Now the number is around 300,000, already on its way to a million. From there, 3 million. Eventually 10 million will beckon for the most ambitious AI companies. Another 100x in 4 years.
100x better models running on 100x better chips running in data centers with 100x more chips is a total increase of 1,000,000x. A million times more artificial intelligence.
This is why it’s critical that we win the AI race.
AI will become a million times more powerful during the Trump presidency. People find this hard to believe. Let’s break it down.
AI models are improving at a rate of about 3-4x per year. One can see this in the performance evaluations, the capabilities, the user experience, and the growth of the ecosystem. Compounding at that rate yields an order of magnitude improvement (10x) in two years and two orders of magnitude (100x) in four years.
Similarly, the chips are improving at a rate of about 3-4x per year. One can see this in the progress of Nvidia’s GPUs from Hopper to Blackwell and soon Ruben and Feynman. The progress is not just in logic but also in memory bandwidth (HBM) and rack architecture (eg NVL72). So a similar 100x improvement in chip performance over 4 years.
Finally, the data centers powering AI are growing. A state-of-the-art cluster like Colossus had about 100,000 GPUs a year ago. Now the number is around 300,000, already on its way to a million. From there, 3 million. Eventually 10 million will beckon for the most ambitious AI companies. Another 100x in 4 years.
100x better models running on 100x better chips running in data centers with 100x more chips is a total increase of 1,000,000x. A million times more artificial intelligence.
This is why it’s critical that we win the AI race.
Coding assistants are the first big break-out application of AI (aside from the chatbots themselves). Products like Cursor and Replit are compounding revenue at unprecedented rates. The ramifications of moving from a world of code scarcity to code abundance are profound.
There’s a new portrait in the White House and it’s awesome.
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