南山wu

Wrote a small capital imitation strategy, 100 times increased

Market Trends
BTC follows the surge of the U.S. stock market, with altcoins rising broadly.
The U.S. stock market experiences a massive surge, achieving the largest single-day gain in the past 17 years. Short-term bearish factors have dissipated, and Trump has suspended tariffs for 90 days, only increasing tariffs on China by 125%.

Market Highlights:
1. Major public chains like SOL, ETH, and Layer have rebounded significantly. The Trump family fund sold ETH. Hardware-accelerated Layer hits a new high.
2. The meme coin Fartcoin and RFC on the SOL chain have surged. Fartcoin is a leading player in this rebound, with a giant whale buying in at 200,000. RFC has been reported by CCTV and is associated with Elon Musk.
3. Babylon listed on BN, BTC staking protocols.
4. Prompt listed on OK, AI infrastructure on the blockchain.

Air Force Bull Market

Eth is mani

Mindset Chapter: Survival Principles in a Bear Market
The cryptocurrency market experiences drastic fluctuations between bull and bear phases, and mindset is the core weapon to navigate these cycles, especially in a bear market where 90% of losses stem from emotional turmoil.

Respect the Market, Acknowledge Ignorance

In a bear market, avoid the “bottom-fishing belief”; the market bottom is often determined by macro liquidity (such as Federal Reserve policies) rather than technical indicators.

Case Study: After the collapse of LUNA in 2022, many investors fell victim a second time due to the mindset of “having dropped 90% must rebound.”

“Counterintuitive” Discipline
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and emotional trading is the greatest enemy.

Bear Market Strategy: Avoid “FOMO bottom-fishing,” patiently wait for right-side signals (such as weekly level breakouts, volume recovery).

Bull Market Strategy: Restrain “greed chasing,” take profits in batches (for example, sell 10%-20% of the position every time it rises by 20%).

Long-Term Thinking vs Short-Term Noise
The market spends 90% of its time in consolidation and 10% completing trend breakouts. In a bear market, minimize ineffective actions and focus on key market hotspots and on-chain data.

Core Formula for Risk Management
Single loss ≤ 2% of total capital, avoid systemic risk through position control (such as below 1x leverage) and stop-loss discipline (hard stop-loss + technical support level as double insurance).

Cash is King, Wait for Certain Opportunities

Keep at least 50% in stablecoins (USDT/USDC) to cope with extreme market conditions, avoiding “being fully invested and trapped.”

Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy: Gradually build positions only when BTC drops to key support levels (such as 50%-60% of the previous bull market peak).

Use of Hedging Tools: Utilize options protection (such as buying put options to hedge position risk).

Arbitrage Opportunities: Pay attention to price differences between exchanges, contract funding rates (short arbitrage when rates are negative).

Focus on Resilient Assets

BTC: The characteristics of the big coin in this round need no further explanation.

Additionally:
In a bear market, focus on internal growth; in a bull market, execution matters. The current market requires a defensive mindset to participate in offensive trends. Remember: Risk control is always more important than returns; having enough ammunition allows you to take the initiative in a true bull market rally.

In the first phase, one account was over 4000 RMB, and with three accounts, I made over 10,000 RMB. In this phase, one account is 1000 RMB for a pig's trotter rice, isn't it nice to go enjoy a big meal after making some money? Although a fly is small, it is still meat.

Some people are really lazy; they ignore anything that requires even a little bit of trouble, and they only respond to money being transferred to their account. There are also some like this, but a group of people still find it troublesome to send him money, and he doesn't want it either; he just finds it bothersome.

Mindset: Survival Strategies for Bear Markets
The cryptocurrency market experiences extreme fluctuations between bulls and bears; maintaining the right mindset is the core weapon for navigating these cycles, especially in bear markets where 90% of losses stem from emotional instability.

Respect the Market, Acknowledge Ignorance

In bear markets, it is crucial to avoid “bottom-fishing faith”; the market bottom is often determined by macro liquidity (such as Federal Reserve policies) rather than technical indicators.

Case Study: After the 2022 LUNA collapse, many investors fell into a secondary trap due to the belief that “after a 90% drop, a rebound is inevitable.”

“Against Human Nature” Discipline
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and emotional trading is the biggest enemy.

Bear Market Strategy: Avoid “FOMO bottom-fishing” and patiently wait for right-side signals (such as weekly-level breakouts and volume recovery).

Bull Market Strategy: Restrain “greed chasing” and take profits in batches (e.g., sell 10%-20% of your position every time it rises by 20%).

Long-term Thinking vs Short-term Noise
The market spends 90% of its time in consolidation, with only 10% of the time completing trend breakouts. In bear markets, it is necessary to reduce ineffective operations and focus on key market hotspots and on-chain data.

Core Formula for Risk Management
Single loss ≤ 2% of total capital, avoid systemic risks through position control (e.g., leverage below 1x) and stop-loss discipline (hard stop-loss + technical support level as double insurance).

Cash is King, Wait for Certain Opportunities

Maintain at least 50% in stablecoins (USDT/USDC) to cope with extreme market conditions and avoid being “fully invested and trapped.”

Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy: Gradually build positions only when BTC drops to key support levels (like 50%-60% of the previous bull market high).

Use of Hedging Tools: Utilize options protection (such as buying put options to hedge position risks).

Arbitrage Opportunities: Pay attention to price differences between exchanges and the funding rate of contracts (short arbitrage during negative funding rates).

Focus on Resilient Assets

BTC: The characteristics of Bitcoin in this cycle need no further elaboration.

Platform Tokens (such as BNB)

Additionally:
In bear markets, hone your skills; in bull markets, focus on execution. The current market requires a defensive mindset to participate in an offensive market. Remember: risk control is always more important than yield; keeping enough ammunition allows you to take the initiative in a true bull market surge.

Short 2850 this wave, close short at 2350, buy 30 Ethereum at 2400. Perfect.

The reason financial trading is difficult is that it is not just a numbers game, but also a game of human nature, psychology, and rules.
The market is unpredictable, but patterns do exist. The market fluctuations in the short term are full of randomness, just like flipping a coin; no one can accurately predict whether it will rise or fall in the next moment.
However, in the long run, the market will follow some basic patterns, such as economic cycles, industry trends, and company fundamentals. The core ability of speculators is to find these patterns and use them to make money.

Risk is the shadow of trading, which can never be escaped. The essence of trading is managing risk. Every trade is a probability game, and no one can predict correctly 100% of the time. Successful traders do not avoid losses; instead, they understand how to control losses, allowing profits to cover losses, ultimately achieving positive returns. This is the balance of what is known as the "profit-loss ratio" and "win rate."

Long-term survival is more important than short-term windfalls.
Many people enter the market, always thinking about getting rich overnight, but the reality is that the market will harshly educate those who are overly eager for quick gains. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key to long-term survival is:
1️⃣ Do not blindly pursue high returns, but seek stable compound interest.
2️⃣ Do not try to seize every opportunity, but wait for the most suitable one for yourself.
3️⃣ Do not treat trading as gambling, but as a craft that requires continuous learning and refinement.

It is a practice; besides honing technical skills, cultivating the right mindset is even more important.

Keep going.

Do you know why there are no more altcoin seasons?

In January, the new tokens in the crypto market exceeded 600,000, which is 12 times more than in previous years, and those listed on Dex are dozens of times more than in the last bull market. Liquidity is getting worse, smart money is increasing, there are fewer people with your vision, and fresh blood is becoming scarcer. The chances of a full-scale altcoin explosion are becoming lower.

About running fast, I chased after the altcoin yesterday, bought in and gained a few points, and immediately set a breakeven stop loss. If I hadn't set it, I would have to bear a 20% drop, and I'm talking about spot trading.

Actually, this round has been misled by the high price of Bitcoin, as spot trading doesn't set stop losses because Bitcoin is still in a bull market. Every time an altcoin drops, it feels like just a pullback, and there’s an altcoin season, so spot trading is like 1x leverage. However, if you don't set a stop loss, a drop of 60-90% can often result in more losses than trading futures normally does.

The key point is that the scary story is that Bitcoin is still around 100,000, while altcoins have already been cut in half by 60-90%. So if Bitcoin continues to drop, how much will it fall? As long as Bitcoin remains at such a high level, remember to set stop losses for any altcoin spot trading.

Additionally, shorting bear chains is truly enjoyable.

These altcoins are like an absurd farce; they crawl out of the garbage heap like maggots, greedily gnawing at the wealth of the ignorant. These so-called value coins are nothing more than a scam carefully woven by a group of speculators, their value as elusive as air, ready to vanish at any moment.

These project teams are like a group of cunning foxes, luring innocent lambs into traps with sweet talk and false promises. Their technology is merely a pile of flawed code, their team a group of utterly disreputable con artists, and their project nothing but trash.

In this world of lies and fraud in the cryptocurrency sphere, altcoins spread like a virus; they have no substantial application scenarios, no innovative technology, and rely solely on hype and market manipulation to maintain their false prosperity. They are the tumors of the financial world, the destroyers of investors' wealth, and the disruptors of economic order.

Bitcoin has been able to quickly recover every time it dips over the past few months; mindlessly buying in hopes of stability means just going with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's market capitalization share once surged to 65%, and it remains to be seen whether it can exceed 70% in the next two months.
Reduce time spent on altcoins, and spend more time focusing on Bitcoin and reviewing past performance.

Why has the "wealth creation effect" disappeared in the past few months?

The phenomenon of 'scythe-ization' and zero-sum games. This round of false narratives and the proliferation of air projects, with token distribution being highly concentrated (teams and VCs holding the majority), leads to huge selling pressure after unlocking. The market value management teams collude with exchanges to attract retail investors to buy in before quickly withdrawing their investments.

Additionally, there is a siphoning effect of funds, where market capital is concentrated in a few mainstream coins like Bitcoin, while altcoins lack sustained inflows of capital, resulting in an overall pessimistic sentiment and reduced capital inflows, creating a "liquidity trap."

Reject blind speculation, focus on underlying logic, and conduct in-depth research on project technology, ecological progress, and long-term vision, rather than short-term price fluctuations. Control risks, avoid high leverage, invest idle funds, and diversify allocations. Wait for cyclical opportunities; during a bull market, be ruthless and avoid excessive greed, and make sure to exit in batches.

Is there no chance in the cryptocurrency circle?

During the Shanzhai Festival, shorting is a bull market. If you reverse the K-line, it is a bull market.

As long as there is volatility, you can still make money.

I remember that Xiaoyu made 1,000 times three times. The first time was 100u to 10wu, the second time was 10u or 15u, and it was 1wu. The third time was similar. This time 1000u hit 86000u.

In fact, it was mainly because the price of Bitcoin was too high, which made most people think it was still a bull market and they didn’t dare to short.

Xiaoyu rolled the position and it was still 6. I was too new to shorting and didn’t dare to roll the position at all. The small position only doubled.

From the historical patterns of the crypto market and the current evolution of the ecosystem, although the difficulty of making money from short to medium-term speculation has increased and the profit effect besides shorting is extremely low, the true logic for profit still exists in the later stages.

First, understand the essence of the current predicament; the industry is in a phase of transformation.
The traffic dividend has faded, and the incremental users driven by innovations such as Meme coins and GameFi in the previous bull market have peaked.

Path to breakthrough: switch the profit coordinate system and reject the logic of taking over.

Survival rule: establish reasonable position allocation and stop-loss.

Cognitive upgrade: jump out of the price narrative.

The era of exorbitant profits in the crypto market has shifted from grassroots dividends to professional plunder. Retail investors must either retreat to a Zen strategy of Bitcoin spot + regular investment or completely upgrade to on-chain special forces, waiting for the next major technical and narrative hotspot to drive the market.

Remember: excessive emotions can backfire. The bear market is the best time to accumulate; patiently wait for the best accumulation opportunity rather than lamenting the rise and fall of prices.

The key position of the big dog has also broken, and it hasn't increased in volume yet. Don't easily buy any altcoins.

Last month, many friends asked me if they could buy the big dog, and there were various talks about Musk. Buying altcoins directly to short is foolish. Didn't you notice? At that time, the big dog had good news, but the market was still falling, which indicates what.

Any altcoin that thinks about a pullback after a sharp rise is very foolish; when it starts to fall, it happens quickly. Only Bitcoin can be bought repeatedly during pullbacks for profit; for other altcoins, if you don't sell quickly, you'll get buried. I think this wave of altcoins is much worse than 519 and 312.

Control your position's flexibility well; only when there are more suitable opportunities do you have bullets to shoot.

Only take profits when it's time to defend and when it's time to take profits. Currently, doing some swing trading in the secondary market is quite good.

Additionally, the secondary market is relatively difficult because there are too many stocks; each sector has dozens of varieties. First, categorize some major narratives or minor narratives within two months and focus on a few. If you look at too many and want to chase everything, following this person and then that one, it's definitely hard to make money.

Now let's talk about cycles.
The most important thing in investing is to understand cycles. The laws of cycle operation are like waves; there are ups and downs, there is prosperity as well as recession, there is depression and recovery, just like the changing of the seasons, akin to a four-year cycle for Bitcoin.

I believe that true investment masters are not those who can profit from both long and short positions, nor those who buy at the bottom and sell at the top, or those who claim to make multiples on-chain in a month. Instead, they are those who understand and can navigate cyclicality, standing at the right moment when even pigs can fly. Conversely, when the wind passes, only the pigs that are not prepared will fall.

In this impatient market, while pursuing rapid wealth, one must always think about not letting oneself fall easily. There are too many thoughts and ideas, too much impatience and aggression, which often leads to ugly failures.

Like the 2000 times compound interest of the Dragon King. It is not like the short, urgent, and fast wealth of a straw mat, but rather long, slow, and stable. This is about grasping cyclicality and mastering trends.
There is a saying, 'To carry great virtue is to bear much.' The ability to bear is important; to gain something, one must have the corresponding ability to carry.

For me, the ability to bear includes virtue, cognition, experience, and mental cultivation. In investing, being at the right moment is very important, but the ability to navigate that moment is even more crucial. Having the ability to bear and understanding cycles is essential for long-term gains.

Feeling Comfortable Chillguy has pulled almost 40 points

In fact, people make big money in their lifetime in those two or three years. Wealth comes inexplicably. You don't have to look for money yourself. Money will chase you. When you reach that point in time, you will feel that there is always a force pushing you forward and throwing you into the pile of money. Most people rise quickly in two or three years, and the longest cycle is only four or five years.

There is a certain truth. In fact, the consideration here should be the industry cycle. Capital and people are profit-seeking. When a profitable industry comes out, no one knows about it in the first few years. There is information asymmetry and it is easy to do without competition. Later, more people make money. In this era of Internet explosion, more and more people know about it, and the competition is getting bigger and bigger.

In fact, don't be too anxious if you don't make money this round. Those who really make a lot of money are waiting 80% of the time, "living and enduring". In the remaining 20%, they will devote all their efforts and kill with one blow. They will make a lot of money in one or two years and can lie down for a lifetime.