百萬Eric Day Trader

Conduct trades based on breakout pullbacks; the key is not to rush into chasing the breakout itself, but to confirm the pullback after the breakout.

The four essential elements for trading are:

1. Clearly defined previous resistance or support

2. The breakout action is strong, and can clearly establish itself in the breakout range

3. The pullback position is precise, landing right near the breakout point

4. Immediately clarify stop-loss and take-profit levels after entering, ensuring that profit and loss are manageable

Missing any link in this chain does not constitute a high-quality breakout pullback trading opportunity.

Currently, Bitcoin #bitcoin is at a critical breakout point; you can draw parallels and look for high-risk reward positions.

New Price High ≠ Structural Breakthrough!

Bitcoin #bitcoin reached an all-time high, but that doesn't mean a structural breakthrough.

The short-term new high may just be the result of emotions, capital, and noise working together.

If you disagree with what was said above, that's okay. If you think this counts as a breakthrough in your system, then that's fine too.

But in any case, do not deviate from your own strategy and be driven by emotions to enter the market or heavily increase your position.

Market definitions can be different, but operating outside of your system is truly dangerous...

Effective relay forms must meet:

1. Appear in a clear trend;

2. Supported by convergence or channel structure;

3. There is a clear breakout direction, accompanied by trading volume or candlestick momentum;

4. There are clear structural stop-loss points to rely on.

In terms of operation, it should revolve around the three points of 'breakout means entry, structure means stop-loss, and form height means take profit', rejecting vague and feel-based attempts to bet on reversals.

Lastly, and most importantly, do not try to capture every form. Being proficient in one or two types of forms can lead to substantial profits!

#ETH Ethereum has not had any spot operations recently.

From the price structure, it is still in a typical range oscillation phase, and currently, we can only focus on short-term or swing contract opportunities.

To hold a large spot position, we still have to wait for those truly high risk-reward opportunities.

This kind of waiting is quite tormenting. The market moves slowly, and waiting can last half a month or even a month, making it easy for people to feel anxious.

What to do when encountering a strong engulfing pattern #K线 ?

Actually, there are three ways, depending on whether you want 'cost-performance' or 'certainty'.

1. Limit order: Place an order in advance at the halfway point (50%) of the body of the engulfing candlestick. The advantage is high cost-performance, but you might not be able to fill the order.

2. Enter after confirmation of the transaction: Wait until the engulfing candlestick closes or the next candlestick opens to enter, pursuing certainty, but the price is usually worse.

3. Wait for a breakout below: Only enter after the price breaks below the low of the engulfing candlestick. This is the most conservative approach, suitable for waiting until the trend is clear before taking action.

It is difficult to achieve both 'cost-performance' and 'certainty', so the core issue is not which method is better, but whether you can accept drawdown and whether you can wait for confirmation.

#蜡烛图 #技术分析

"Wedge Formation" is one of the most difficult patterns to deal with in actual trading.

Its typical characteristics are: the price slowly rises, interspersed with occasional bullish candles that fake a breakout, quickly followed by bearish candles closing the gap, repeatedly pulling back and forth.

This type of movement extremely wears down traders' patience and confidence.

By the time a real structural breakdown occurs and a short opportunity arises, many people have already been repeatedly tortured to the point where they dare not take action, or they simply close their positions with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio~

Whether the price breaks through the key resistance level has never been a matter that retail investors can decide; it is the result of market-leading funds, participant competition, and emotional synergy.

We cannot predict trends, but we can manage risks.

Currently, #Bonk triggers the daily overbought signal, overlapping with the structural previous high resistance level. At this position, I would choose to take profits in batches and raise the stop-loss line.

If it breaks through, earn more in the trend; if it doesn't, protect existing profits.

The key is: do not predict, only manage, do not fantasize.

Yao Coin #VIC triggers a reversal overbought signal.

For those with long positions, it is advisable to take profits in batches and simultaneously raise the stop loss to protect profits.

For those wanting to short, you can wait for the right side to break the structure, using moving averages as the stop loss line, and choose your entry point wisely.

Don't forget this is Yao Coin, which is highly volatile; a few hourly candles can lead to a +20%. When shorting, make sure to choose your position carefully and widen the stop loss to avoid being prematurely stopped out.

Ethereum #ETH triggers a 4-hour overbought signal.

I tend to use this signal for taking profit on long positions in batches, rather than reversing to short.

Looking back at the previous three overbought signals:

After the first, the market turned to sideways movement, and the second and third both saw significant pullbacks.

However, this time is slightly different, the EMA moving averages are starting to turn, and bulls have a slight advantage.

Therefore, this overbought signal is more suitable as a reference for taking profit in batches, and currently does not constitute ideal shorting conditions.

#AAVE Daily EMA moving averages have shown a bullish arrangement, which is one of the early signals of a transition from consolidation to trend.

If the trend is confirmed subsequently, the first target is set at 364, and the second target at 435.

However, I want to remind you that the transition from consolidation → trend → trend confirmation is a slow and arduous process.

The strong unilateral rise in 2024 saw a consolidation period exceeding 100 days before truly taking off, during which there were also two instances of more than 20% deep pullbacks.

So, despite having clear target levels now, my assessment of AAVE remains that it is in a strong consolidation phase rather than a confirmed trend.

In terms of operations, I will continue to take profits at key resistance levels and adjust stop-loss lines accordingly, rather than betting on an immediate market move.

In assessing the current market situation of Bitcoin, the core point is: it is still in a consolidation phase, not a trend.

To put it rigorously, from an analytical perspective, the main operational logic is — go long when the previous low support overlaps with key bullish signals, and go short when the previous high resistance overlaps with key bearish signals.

More importantly, during execution, set your take-profit orders well, don't overthink it, and follow the plan.

Bitcoin #bitcoin has already dropped by 3000 USD since the 4-hour overbought signal; this decline, both in magnitude and smoothness, is very friendly for short-term short positions.

If you still hold a short position now, it is recommended to take some profits, adjust your stop-loss, and wait for an oversold signal before fully closing.

If you want to go long, the low buy position I am currently focusing on is in the EMA100 area.

How to formulate a trading plan?

The key judgments actually come down to three:

1. What is the current trend? Is it bullish, bearish, or sideways?

2. Where is the price now? Bulls look at support, bears look at resistance, and in a sideways market, focus on the range edges.

3. Is the position appropriate? You can only take action at key levels; if you deviate from key levels, do not act.

Finally, market volatility ≠ trading opportunities; only volatility within the strategy is an opportunity!

A truly strong trend often experiences one or two deep consolidations before it starts.

Taking the example of #AAVE at the end of 2024: the price experienced two waves of retracement of -30.63% (lasting 42 days) and -23.94% (lasting 11 days) before rising without any pullbacks.

At that time, in both of these phases, whether in terms of retracement duration or the intensity of the decline, it made people feel that the market had reversed into a bearish trend, and it might even break below previous lows.

But the fact is: it was just a retracement, not a reversal.

Back to the current AAVE. Because I have a cost advantage + a profit cushion, I can accept even a further drop of 22%, bringing it back to around EMA200.

Thus, the trading thought process moving forward is very clear: either the price moves as expected and I earn more, or it does not follow the prediction, breaks below EMA200, and I earn less.

Finally, big gains and big losses are two sides of the same coin; it is not a matter of ability, but the essence of market structure~

Bitcoin #bitcoin triggered a 4-hour overbought condition, while facing pressure at the price structure.

There are two logical approaches to managing positions.

The first is the most conservative approach—first, take some profits from the long position, and then adjust the stop-loss up to EMA20/50. If the price subsequently drops below EMA20/50, then fully exit the position passively to secure the existing profits.

The second approach is to close all long positions directly and then wait for an opportunity to switch to shorting, betting on a decline under overbought conditions and previous high pressure.

Neither of these strategies is absolutely right or wrong; which one to choose depends entirely on your trading fundamentals and operational style.

So will it continue to break upward?

I don't know; let's discuss the breakout after it happens. If it doesn't break out, treat it as if it didn't happen, and focus on securing the profits that should be made.

#SOL The daily chart is in a position that is both boring and contradictory.

From the moving averages, the price is still below the EMA200, indicating a bearish trend; however, from a pattern perspective, it looks like a potential inverse head and shoulders.

The most frustrating thing is this type of price action, where it’s unclear at the moment, but once it breaks out and you look back—it seems everything is obvious.

In such a market, there are only two choices: look for high odds short-term opportunities in the intraday window, or avoid entirely until a clear structure emerges.

Bitcoin #bitcoin triggered an oversold signal in 4 hours and rebounded by 4350 USD.

This wave of market movement has been very smooth, with almost no messy wicks or repetitions, making it the only segment in the past 9 days that has a high profit effect.

The price has now returned to the resistance area of June 10, with some profit-taking contracts on long positions, and the stop-loss line has been raised.

Next, focus on the overbought signal at the 4-hour level as the next profit-taking point.

I have no strong emotions about the market:

Not particularly optimistic, nor too pessimistic, and I certainly won't gamble on a crash or a surge.

What I care about are three things:
In which positions the odds are high, whether it can continue to go down, and whether the risks are controllable.

If the market gives me some leeway, then I'll make a little more; if not, then minimizing losses or not losing is a victory. If there are no opportunities, then just wait patiently for "opportunities where I won't lose."

Looking back at Bitcoin's #bitcoin past 9 times of 4-hour oversold signals, you'll find that it generally respects the structure, and there has basically been a rebound, just with different magnitudes and speeds.

So today, with this new 4-hour oversold trigger, I won't directly assume whether to look for previous highs or new highs.

The market is still in a fluctuation, and focusing on taking profits on long positions at key levels is the priority.

Don't daydream, and don't let desire guide your trades~