CRYPTO宵宵

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Bear Market Survival Guide:

1. Never sleep on bridges, streets, internet cafes, or in parks.

2. If you have to stay overnight, go to the airport terminal; there are places to sleep, hot water available, phone charging, and even free Wi-Fi.

3. When you wake up, head straight to McDonald's, find a used coffee cup from someone else, and get unlimited refills at the counter.

4. At noon, find a nearby hotel; many rooms will have doors left open after check-out, so you can find an empty room to take a hot shower.

5. In the afternoon, you can go to Haidilao for free snacks, and in the evening, head to Hema supermarket for unlimited tastings; when staff throw away unsold bread, you can pack it up and take it with you.

6. If you're hungry, go to KFC and eat leftover burgers, fries, coke, and chicken nuggets from others.

7. If you need to change clothes, go to the fitting rooms in a large mall, look for clothes that customers tried on but didn’t buy, quietly change into them, and hide your old clothes in a corner, remembering to choose less conspicuous styles.

8. If the airport is too far at night, you can go to a 24-hour convenience store, pretend to browse, and find a corner to sit and rest; the staff usually won’t kick you out, and you can also grab some expired free snacks.

9. If you want to do laundry, go to a self-service laundromat, pretend you’re there to pick up clothes, and use a washing machine and dryer that someone just finished using while no one is watching.

10. If you need a haircut, wait outside a barbershop; when you see someone finishing their haircut, go in and say to the barber, "Just give me a little trim." Many times, they will help you with a simple trim for free.

11. In spring and summer when there are many mosquitoes, you can go to the pharmacy and look for sample mosquito repellent or floral water, apply a bit on yourself to prevent bites, and you can also rest for a while under the pharmacy's sunshade.

12. If your phone has no balance, make sure to use Wi-Fi to access Telegram and Twitter, and don’t forget to recharge the local service.

No matter how hot the cryptocurrency is, the market is fleeting like a momentary flower. There is no need to regret missing the entry opportunity; holders should view the situation more rationally. Investment should not be influenced by the fluctuations of K-lines, but should objectively analyze market trends through changes in market capitalization and maintain calm judgment.

Speaking of the recent popular altcoins, PEPE definitely counts as one! During the last major drop, I advised everyone to buy the dip in the range of 657 to 570, and it rebounded by almost 50% in no time, so those holding spot positions made a good profit.
Now it's a critical moment again! From the daily chart, PEPE hasn't had much independent movement lately and has basically followed Bitcoin's ups and downs. Currently, the support level is at 772, with strong support still at the previous range of 657 to 570. If the price breaks through key levels, don't hesitate to enter directly; if you miss it, don't panic, you can start with a 20% position when it retraces to 772.
Remember, when the market heats up, popular Meme coins like PEPE often surge the fastest. Avoid other miscellaneous Meme coins; besides PEPE and the well-established Dogecoin (DOGE), I don’t recommend any others due to high risks!

The cryptocurrency market has been quite lively these past two days. On the 7th, Ethereum will undergo an upgrade, and in the early hours of the 8th, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. But to be honest, based on experience, there is a high probability that there won't be any surprises. The news that the market is focused on rarely turns into a money-making opportunity easily.
Looking at the charts, Bitcoin's daily MACD has just formed a death cross above the zero line, which is not a good sign. I believe the market still has to go down; if it breaks below the critical point of 92,000, it is likely to drop even more sharply. Ethereum needs to watch the price level of 1,720; if it can't hold, it's in trouble.
For short-term trading, it's advisable not to chase high prices; shorting during rebounds is safer. After all, when the price goes up, it hesitates, but when it goes down, it drops smoothly. For long-term investment, spare money can be invested regularly in Bitcoin, ETFs, and SOL; other cryptocurrencies should be avoided for now. The priority is to protect the principal, and then look for opportunities to make money later—this is the hard truth!

The trend of Alpaca Coin is truly insane! Binance originally planned to delist it on May 2. Normally, when this news comes out, the coin price is likely to plummet, but Alpaca Coin defies logic. After Binance officially announced the delisting on April 24, it first briefly dropped by 30%, and then, the narrative changed dramatically, entering a bull run mode, with the price skyrocketing from $0.029 to $0.3477 in just 3 days, an increase of nearly 12 times. This volatile market has left many in the industry bewildered.
The trading volume is astonishing; at its lowest, it had a circulating market cap of less than $4 million, yet this 'small cap' has triggered over billions in trading volume. In the futures market, it’s bustling with activity, with both bulls and bears fighting fiercely, and liquidation data topping the charts daily, even leaving Bitcoin and Ethereum, the 'big brothers', in the dust. Exchanges were so shocked by this crazy pace that they quickly reduced the funding rate settlement period from 8 hours to 1 hour, raising the rate cap to ±4%. Even so, this crazy battle between bulls and bears could not be stopped.
If this continues, Binance may have to reconsider its decision to delist Alpaca Coin. After all, such frequent price surges and the jaw-dropping trading volume make Alpaca Coin stand out in the crypto space, earning the title of 'conscientious copycat.' However, the price fluctuations are too extreme; investing in it feels like riding a roller coaster, thrilling yet with risks that are frighteningly high.

It is now very difficult for altcoins to experience a big bull market. There are three main reasons: First, many altcoin projects have raised too much money in funding; Second, a large number of tokens are unlocked as soon as the project is launched, leading to a frenzy of selling by the team and investors to cash out; Third, large institutions and compliant funds are only willing to buy Bitcoin now and dare not touch other small coins.
However, there is a category of altcoins that still have a chance: those that have already been listed on second-tier exchanges, have sufficient funds on the team’s account, have tokens that are not yet unlocked, have a market value of at least several million, and where the founder is experienced and reliable. Do you know of any projects that meet these criteria? Feel free to share!

New Landscape of the Crypto Market: The Deep Changes Behind the Difficulty of Making Money
In this round of the crypto market cycle, many people have clearly felt the intensifying difficulty of making money. The industry has bid farewell to the early stage of wild growth, and the once-startup teams have transformed into leading forces that dominate market rules. Players who rose by breaking conventions in the early days have now become 'rule-makers', and the solidified industry hierarchy makes it difficult for newcomers to share in the spoils. To break the deadlock, one must jump out of the established framework and seek new disruptive paths, rather than passively waiting for opportunities within the existing system.

What's going on with BTC recently? Understanding these can help you seize opportunities!
In the past few days, BTC has been quite turbulent! First, on the 25th and 28th, Bitcoin ETF saw two consecutive inflows of 380 million USD, causing an immediate price crash, but the bulls quickly pulled it back up to the original price level. Now, the 95,500 USD mark is particularly difficult to break through, with a lot of people waiting to sell coins at a high price here.
From the data, it appears that bulls have been consistently buying in the futures market, and the bears have been forced to "recognize losses and cut their positions," pushing the price higher. Following this trend, if the bulls continue to exert force, it's very likely that they will directly break through 95,500 USD, and even rise above 96,000 USD, conveniently digesting the 1 billion USD worth of airdrop coins waiting to be sold in the market.

Today, the bullish momentum for Bitcoin is super strong! It suddenly fell in the morning, and I thought it would fill the gap between 91800 and 93400 on CME directly. As a result, it just fell to the edge of the 1-hour K-line channel and then rebounded, while the open interest is still increasing. Now it's approaching the May Day holiday, and we are nearing the important node in 2049, so it's really hard to say in the short term if this is the bottom.

I think, even if we are going to build a bottom, it won't be that fast. This wave of rise is more about the market digesting news sentiment. I closed my short position in the morning but didn't rush to go long. Many altcoins followed Bitcoin and have returned to the price before the morning drop.

A reminder to everyone: if you missed this wave, don't rush. Wait until the market closes at 5 PM to see. If the price can hold, maybe when the US stock market opens in the evening, there will be another surge, and it will still be time to chase longs then; if it can't hold, then just observe further. Remember, there are opportunities to trade cryptocurrencies every day, so don't operate blindly when the market is unclear!

People who trade contracts always like to stubbornly hold onto losing positions, and as a result, ALPACA (Llama Coin) specifically targets these types of individuals. The operators can manipulate the market without spending much money — after all, the market cap of Llama Coin is only a few million dollars, making it easy to gather the chips. By triggering short liquidations through market manipulation and charging funding fees, they can earn hundreds of thousands of dollars in just one hour, which is simply exorbitant profit. As for when to crash the market, it completely depends on the mood of the operators; this kind of 'easy money' model is no wonder it makes people envious.

When Bitcoin rises to 95,500, it will set a bull trap. The weekend's rise is just to confuse retail investors into chasing highs, which is actually an illusion. From the data, we can see that spot buying has been decreasing since yesterday.
If it doesn't break through 95,500, it will retrace. Today's market has confirmed this:
The CME Bitcoin futures gap was filled on Monday, but there are still unfilled gaps above; there were a large number of support orders around 92,800 in the morning, while the open interest decreased, indicating that retail investors closed their short positions during the decline, and the bull's short covering pushed the price to rebound.
Next, the focus should be: as long as Bitcoin does not break through 95,500, the CME gap is likely to be filled this week. Additionally, there is a Bitcoin strategic news tomorrow, and on Wednesday there will be PCE data, which will have a significant impact on the news front. It is recommended to take profits in the short term or reduce operations, and do not easily act as a "bag holder."

It is difficult to replicate examples of becoming rich through stock trading and reaching the peak of life, as most are due to random factors (such as luck and timing) that ordinary people cannot learn from.
However, entrepreneurship and investment are different; these can be achieved through effort and accumulation.

BTC Market Analysis: From a technical indicator perspective, Bitcoin has returned to a healthy state at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, and the daily level is the same. It is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern during the day, with strong support likely in the 93,000 - 93,500 USD range, while the upper resistance is in the 95,000 - 96,000 USD range. Currently, although Bitcoin is fluctuating at a high level, the overall bullish trend remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the breakout situation of support and resistance zones.

ETH Market Analysis: Ethereum has returned to a normal state at the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily levels. It is likely to maintain consolidation during the day, with bottom support at 1,700 - 1,750 USD and upper resistance at 1,830 - 1,880 USD. Ethereum follows Bitcoin's trend, waiting for directional choice during consolidation, and investors should pay attention to price movements in key ranges to seize trading opportunities.

Lying flat😁

What do full margin and isolated margin mean? Will it affect my profits?
In the Binance trading interface, you will see two options: full margin and isolated margin (also known as cross margin).
Full margin mode: As the name suggests, it counts all the money in your account. When you incur losses, everyone shares the burden. If you have opened several positions and one position suffers significant losses, the platform will automatically withdraw funds from other parts of your account to help you cover the loss until all your money is gone. In this mode, the risk is shared.

Full margin is suitable for those who are bold yet careful. They believe that using all their account money to withstand momentary fluctuations can still help them endure. However, if there isn’t much money in the account, the risk of liquidation is very high.

Isolated margin mode: On the contrary, isolated margin is like opening a small “independent vault.” You can allocate fixed margin for each position, and even if you incur losses, you will only lose that portion of money without dragging the entire account down. This mode is more suitable for conservative traders, as even if one position is liquidated, the other positions remain safe.

For example: You have 1000 USDT. In full margin mode, if one position incurs losses, the platform will automatically use this 1000 USDT to help you withstand the loss; while in isolated margin mode, you can allocate 500 USDT to each position, so if one position loses all its funds, it won't affect the funds of another position.

The competition between luck and technology in cryptocurrency investment is fundamentally a game of cognitive dimensions. True 'technology' is not K-line analysis, but rather three underlying capabilities:
1. Project deconstruction ability: understanding the technical roadmap in the white paper and assessing the team's execution capability (e.g., judging whether the public chain TPS can be realized);
2. Airdrop capture ability: accurately tracking testnet node establishment and early community contributions (e.g., Arbitrum airdrop screening logic);
3. Cycle control ability: identifying market sentiment indicators at bull and bear turning points (e.g., the timing for layout when the fear and greed index is < 20). As for 'luck', it is often a manifestation of probability after in-depth research — when you can lock in 3 potential targets out of 100 early projects, the so-called 'luck' is merely the result of technical screening. In this highly volatile market, believing in luck will reduce you to a gambler, while understanding the essence of technology allows 'fortune lies in the sky' to become a natural outcome.

Trump's dinner is limited to the top 220 holders, which is no longer a simple 'call to action', but rather attracting funds by granting social rights through tokens. Such 'empowerment' strategies may attract politicians and businessmen to participate — for instance, Sun Yuchen once spent tens of millions to buy tokens for traffic exchange and achieve other profits. However, caution is needed: the essence of the Trump project may be to capitalize on the hype, and investors should avoid paying for short-term speculative attributes.

Sharing some tips for the crypto world: Don't make short trades in a bull market, and don't make long trades in a bear market; Don't panic sell in a bull market, and don't FOMO in a bear market.
1. Buy with patience, sell with determination, and hold with confidence.
2. Buy during small dips in an uptrend; sell during small rallies in a downtrend.
3. Buy in portions to avoid losses; buying all at once can lead to bigger losses.
4. Support levels that are held for too long will eventually break, and resistance levels that are attacked for too long will eventually fall.
5. Both bearish and bullish traders can make money, but only the greedy will lose.
6. Eat until you are 80% full, and aim to make 80% profit in trading.

Investment is not about defeating others in someone else's game, but about controlling oneself in one's own game. What is a circle of competence? It is clearly knowing what you cannot do and never attempting to do those things. If you think you can do something, it means you have not yet formed a circle of competence.