Really simple update to yesterday's call for a range break. As long as $BTC keeps closing 4 hour candles above 95.5k I am looking for upside on BTC and our bullish alts. Longs when they don't look over extended. A close below looks bad and is our warning to sign to get out.
Daily close looks great but look to the 4 hour to lead the way#BTCRebound $BTC
Bitcoin closed the monthly candle just above 94k at resistance. The monthly chart is looking healthier. The bears had a chance to take control at the 90k resistance level and instead BTC is consolidating above that major support/resistance zone. This is generally a healthy sign combined with BTC outperforming equities.
The concern is that BTC hasnt been able to close above the key 95.5k level which is both a momentum pivot and the breakdown candle from 26 Feb. If BTC rejects in this area it is the exact area we would expect a bearish retest to fail and form a lower high.
In any case there has been so little volatility on $BTC over the last week that I expect an explosive move to come in the early part of May maybe as soon as tomorrow
THE NEXT MOVE
While the market is sending mixed signals on the next direction, no one wants to hear “price could go up or down”. The conventional wisdom is to “sell in May and go away” but we might be in for a countermove move this month. 👀
To find the next direction I would look to the 4 hour chart I have shared to front run the daily close. So far BTC has maintained an extremely tight range between 93.5 and 95.5. A 4 hour candle close above or below this range would be an early indication of direction. I would look to go cautiously long or short on a 4-hour closure outside of the range and ride that to the daily close. If BTC breaks to the upside I expect it to come suddenly on a strong impulse candle. This would likely not be a fakeout but a signal we are headed for 98k and higher.
HOW WE TRADE IT We watch the 4 hour chart into the daily chart as I said above. To make outsized gains one of the strategies I like is to long strong coins at support and short weaker coins at resistance while BTC is still in the range.
My current long watchlist (at support only) are 💎$BTC $FART, $HYPE, $VIRTUAL and $TON
My current short watchlist (at resistance only) 💎$LINK $BERA $ADA memecoins, most alts. It is much easier to find an ugly chart than a healthy one 🍾
- $BTC is still hovering just below its 95k resistance at the 0.618 Fib (which it's touched 5 times in the past). - Historically, the more times a level is tested, the weaker it becomes. - The RSI and StochRSI are now starting to level out but I'm still waiting for confirmation of a cross-over for bullish continuation. - At this point, you're still better off waiting for a daily close above 96k or below 93k. Some liquidity disappeared at 94k but has added above 96k which could act as a magnet with any positive news.
Major resistance is 95k, 100k, 106k, and the 108k trendline. Major support is 88-90k, 86k, 83k, 81k, 77-78k, and 72-74k.
1. Market Overview - Global Market Cap: 3.07 (previously 3.08T) via Coingecko - Top Movers: KCS, LEO, SUI, ALPACA
2. Altcoin Market Trends 📈 - Alts have finally taken a breather as BTC stagnates near 95k and memes outperform. ALPACA recently pumped 300% on delisting news which shows manipulation is still at an ATH. Most are waiting to see what BTC does over the next few days as even institutions are taking a risk-off approach amid lower ETF flows until there's more clarity.
3. Key News Headlines 📰 - Regulatory Updates: United Kingdom to collaborate with the US to boost adoption of cryptocurrency - Partnerships or Integrations: Bitget and Avalanche form crypto partnership in India - Major Developments: Trump's Truth Social explores launching its own crypto token and wallet
4. Upcoming Events ⏩ - Apr 30th-May 1st Token 2049 Dubai - May 7th FOMC meeting - May 30th FTX starts $11.4B of creditor payouts
5. Summary ✍️ The market is still holding up fairly well considering the uncertainty surrounding the macro environment. There's been recent tensions between Pakistan and India where Pakistan claims it has ‘credible intelligence’ India will strike within 36 hours. This, along with the tariff wars and Russia/Ukraine means investors are taking a risk-off approach until there's more clarity. We also have the FOMC meeting May 7th but the majority are expecting no interest rate cuts. The silver lining is Trump's Truth Social exploring launching its own crypto token and wallet which would mean the president would be endorsing and legitimizing the idea of a blockchain IPO, all done officially. This would be a white swan event that would override any macro uncertainty imo. Until then, continue to manage risk and take advantage of the volatility.
- $BTC continues to inch closer to its 95k resistance at the 0.618 Fib (which it's touched 4 times in the past). - Historically, the more times a level is tested, the weaker it becomes. - The RSI and StochRSI are still crossing to the downside but any positive news could change that. - I'm still waiting for a daily close above 96k or below 93k. Very thick liquidity is building between both areas and whichever way we break will be violent. - I still remain focused on alts as those are still the +EV trade.
Major resistance is 95k, 100k, 106k, and the 108k trendline. Major support is 88-90k, 86k, 83k, 81k, 77-78k, and 72-74k.
1. Market Overview - Global Market Cap: 3.08 (previously 3.08T) via Coingecko - Top Movers: VIRTUAL, FLR, BCH, HYPE, MKR, TAO
2. Altcoin Market Trends 📈 - AI coins continue to outperform vs most of the market (VIRTUAL, TAO, etc.). You also have the usual outperformers like HYPE maintaining their top position which shows traders are focused on betting strength, especially during the choppy market.
3. Key News Headlines 📰 - Regulatory Updates: 21Shares files for Dogecoin ETF - Partnerships or Integrations: Crypto.com partners with Bread Financial to launch crypto-based rewards credit cards - Major Developments: USDC issuer Circle receives approval to operate as money services provider in Abu Dhabi, UAE
4. Upcoming Events ⏩ - Apr 30th-May 1st Token 2049 Dubai - May 7th FOMC meeting - May 30th FTX starts $11.4B of creditor payouts
5. Summary ✍️ The market continues to chop as AI and a few top L1s outperform. I imagine liquidity will remain scare during Token2049 but things should pick up towards the end of the week along with new updates surrounding tariffs and the Russia/Ukraine war. This will also coincide with a new month and new catalysts (seasonality + M2 money supply lag, FTX distro, etc.). Remember not to force any trades and wait for opportunities to present themselves. Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all. For Daily Market Update Please Follow ☝️☝️
- Most of our predictions played out yesterday. - We saw $BTC breakdown and capture the liquidity just below 93k before bouncing and capturing liquidity above 95k. - It continues to chop within a range and stay below the 0.618 Fib/horizontal resistance. - The RSI and StochRSI are also still crossing to the downside. - My stance remains the same. If we close the daily above 96k, I'm targeting 100-105k. If we close below 93k, I'm targeting 88-90k. - Until then, use this chop to your advantage and bet on strong alts at major support. That has continued to work for us thus far.
Major resistance is 95k, 100k, 106k, and the 108k trendline. Major support is 88-90k, 86k, 83k, 81k, 77-78k, and 72-74k.
1. Market Overview - Global Market Cap: 3.08 - Top Movers: VIRTUAL, XMR, FLR, NEXO, BONK, SEI
2. Altcoin Market Trends 📈 - Alts are continuing their rally as $BTC chopped between 93-95k. BONK is still maintaining traction because of the community's letsbonk.fun platform launch and the recent VIRTUALS run solidifies that AI is here to stay and the "AI Summer" narrative is just around the corner.
3. Key News Headlines 📰 - Regulatory Updates: Arizona House passes bill to establish a Bitcoin Reserve. - Partnerships or Integrations: Mastercard adds crypto stablecoin settlement support for merchants. - Major Developments: Chinese company Temu, known for its cheap prices, adds import charges of up to 150% to counter US tariffs.
4. Upcoming Events ⏩ - Apr 30th-May 1st Token 2049 Dubai - May 7th FOMC meeting - May 30th FTX starts $11.4B of creditor payouts
5. Summary ✍️ There's been a lot of chop because of tariffs and the Russia/Ukraine war. Just recently we had positive developments come from Israel and India in relation to tariff negotiations, along with Russia finally laying out their terms for a ceasefire. We also had Arizona's House pass a bill to establish a Bitcoin Reserve which brings it closer than any other state. This could also have rippling effects for a further move higher. BTC is very close to breaking major resistance so if we get any more positive news regarding the aforementioned topics (especially with China), that could be enough to break us through resistance. I continue to bid outperformers at strong support and manage risk accordingly. #dailyanalysis
- Not much has changed with $BTC . It's still rejecting off of its 95k resistance, which also coincides with the 0.618 Fibbonaci retracement. - I'm still expecting a drop to 88-90k if it doesn't close above 96k within the next few days. - The RSI and StochRSI are still curling to the downside which could further exacerbate this bearish momentum. - There continues to be dense liquidity forming between 93k and 96k which I expect will be big inflection points if broken through. This just emphasizes the uncertainty for the weekend. - If we close the daily above 96k, then I would target the 0.786 Fibbonaci level at 100k. If we close below 93k, I would target 88-90k.
Major resistance is now 95k, 100k, 106k, and the 108k trendline. Major support is now 88-90k, 86k, 83k, 81k, 77-78k, and 72-74k.
1. Market Overview - Global Market Cap: 3.05 (previously 3.07T) - Top Movers: STX, FET, NEXO, WLD, TON, HOUSE, BONK, TRX
2. Altcoin Market Trends 📈 - Alts were mixed today in terms of price performance. AI tokens continue to gain traction with a few remaining as top performers with even lowcaps such as MCP gaining recognition from big players. You also have a few memes outperforming (HOUSE), which is great for the trenches as retail is finally coming back.
3. Key News Headlines 📰 - Regulatory Updates: $XRP ETF Launches in Brazil, Securing Regulated XRP Access for Investors - Partnerships or Integrations: Pakistan Crypto Council and World Liberty Financial signed key agreements to boost crypto investment and innovation in Pakistan. - Major Developments: Trump met with Zelensky at the Vatican to discuss peace negotiations regarding the Russia/Ukraine war
4. Upcoming Events ⏩ - Apr 28th Arizona's 3rd House Hearing to potentially establish a $BTC reserve - Apr 30th-May 1st Token 2049 Dubai - May 7th FOMC meeting
5. Summary ✍️ The market continues to rotate capital as $BTC chops. Most of it is going into memes or top L1/AI plays. There are plenty of opportunities in the market right now so you need to lock-in. I imagine we'll have some type of pullback over the next few days but that dip will be for buying. ETF flows have been at ATHs and adoption continues to increase. These next few weeks will provide gen wealth opportunities. Don't waste them.