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Explanation: The entry range is situated within the identified demand zone. The stop loss is positioned just below this zone and the recent lows to effectively manage risk should the support fail. Take Profit 1 targets the intermediate supply zone, while Take Profit 2 aims for the higher resistance area. The risk-to-reward ratio for the first take-profit level is favorable.
A confluence of risk-off sentiment, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a weakening technical posture for Bitcoin (BTC) presents a compelling short-term bearish outlook. The recent failure to sustain momentum above key resistance levels, coupled with concerning signals from major indicators, suggests a higher probability of a downward move within the next 24 hours.
Technical Analysis
* Price Action & Candlestick Patterns: Bitcoin is currently trading around $104,000, showing significant weakness after failing to hold support at the $105,700 level. The daily chart is exhibiting a series of lower highs and lower lows in the immediate short term. Yesterday's candle closed as a bearish engulfing candle, and today's price action has so far confirmed this bearish sentiment with a sustained move lower.
* Support and Resistance Zones:
* Immediate Resistance: $105,500 - $106,600 (previous support, now acting as resistance).
* Key Resistance: $108,200 (a significant psychological and technical level).
* Immediate Support: $102,000 - $103,000 (a high-demand zone).
* Key Support: $100,372 (30-day low). A break below this level could trigger a more significant sell-off.
Trade Setup
* Potential Setup: Short
* Ideal Entry: A bounce towards the immediate resistance zone of $105,000 - $105,500 would provide an optimal entry for a short position, offering a favorable risk/reward ratio.
* Stop-Loss: A tight stop-loss should be placed above the key resistance level at $106,800. A break above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
* Take-Profit:
* TP1: $102,500 (targeting the upper boundary of the immediate support zone). * TP2: $100,500 (targeting the 30-day low).
* Risk/Reward Ratio: Based on an entry at $105,200, a stop-loss at $106,800, and a primary target of $102,500, the risk/reward ratio is approximately 1:1.69.
Momentum: +38.16 → Slight bullish shift AO: -428.14 → Bearish momentum still lingers VWAP: 105,567.63 → Trading just above VWAP, minor bullish bias
Ichimoku Cloud: Price above Base Line (106,176.13), indicating early bullish continuation
Recommendation: Neutral to Bullish Bias (High Caution)
Entry: 105,600–105,800 (tight range around current VWAP) Stop Loss: 103,800 (below Camarilla S1 and EMA30) Take Profit: 108,000 (near Camarilla R2 and Classic R1) Confidence Level: 60%
Commentary: Low ADX with mixed AO and RSI suggests uncertain momentum. Only aggressive short-term scalps advised.