灯塔说

Thank you Crypto!

A brief summary of the current market:

$BTC

(Bearish) After breaking below the 105200 level, the structure has weakened, with the market showing multiple instances of increased selling pressure, indicating a clear short-term bearish dominance. If it stabilizes at 1035xx and recovers to 1052xx, it will continue to test 108xx. If the upper resistance at 1052xx is confirmed, it may continue to test the support at 103000 in the short term.

$ETH

(Bullish) Short-term stronger than BTC, 2590 is the key defense level, currently still within a rebound channel. If it holds, there is hope to challenge the supply zone at 2670–2680. If it breaks below 2590, it will weaken and look towards around 2530 for support.

$XAU (Bullish) Gold is currently operating near the upper trend line of a triangle, repeatedly testing 3380 but has not yet effectively broken through. If it breaks through the 3350–3380 level with volume, it will challenge the yearly high, sprinting towards the ultimate target of 3700; otherwise, it will continue to converge and oscillate. If it pulls back to 3320 and finds support, one can go long.

#BTC☀️ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #GOLD #XAUUSD

More or empty?

#BTC Trade Thoughts:

As previously mentioned, the 4-hour level has entered the 103000 area after experiencing a sideways trend during a holiday.
Today's bullish candle indicates a halt in the decline and shows a weak bullish signal.

In the short term, the focus is on buying on dips, looking around the 108xx-109xx area.

If it breaks below 103xx, it will continue to weaken and we will look at the 100,000 level.

A brief summary of the current short-term market:

Currently, #BTC and #ETH have shown initial signs of a stop-loss and accumulation, but structurally, a medium-term reversal confirmation has not yet been completed.

At this stage, light positions can be taken to test short-term longs, but one must be wary of the possibility of 'a washout after failed bullish inducement', and the strategy is more inclined towards 'waiting for structural confirmation before following the trend'.

A one-sentence summary of today's market:

$BTC The current pullback has not yet ended, but there is a basis for a short-term rebound at lower levels, expected to fluctuate around the 105,500–107,200 range, with direction waiting for the choice of the US market.

$ETH There is a possibility of a rebound first, followed by a pullback, and then an attack; short-term long positions can attempt to bet on a rebound, with targets set at 2670–2700.

Both bulls and bears have opportunities today!

Briefly comment on my short-term trading thoughts and logic:
#BTC☀️ The trend has entered the "short-term strong continuation, medium-term adjustment risk" phase.
If it breaks through 110,200–110,800, there is not much resistance in the air, and it is expected to hit 112,000, but this area is a key boundary for medium-term bulls and bears, be cautious of false breakouts after a surge in volume.
Pay attention to the US market pullback 1088*-1092* long

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 The trend is cleaner than BTC and is expected to challenge the mid-term structure high of 2600–2630. Once it stabilizes above 2630, there is a chance of entering a main uptrend.
Pay attention to the US market pullback in the range of 2555-2570 long

Summary: Both BTC and ETH are currently in a strong trend continuation phase, with bulls still dominating. Generally, buy on pullbacks according to the chart.

Moody's just downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA, marking the 'third blow' after S&P and Fitch.
My first reaction isn't to the U.S. stock market,
but rather — will #BTC welcome the next round of consensus fracturing?
Looking back at the S&P downgrade in 2011, the S&P 500 rebounded by 35% within a year.
In this collapse of global trust, perhaps the biggest beneficiary will be Bitcoin.
After fluctuating around $100,000, it might trigger a short squeeze after a dip to 90k+, then surge to 12k.
The market is waiting for the direction after the emotional release,
and I just want to quietly observe.

Today I saw a blogger say that Binance Alpha now has only the studio meeting 99% of the standards. The normal contributing users only have 20% meeting the standards.

Here are my personal two points of view:

1. It is undeniable that the benefits brought by Binance Alpha and its influence on people outside the circle are significant, and the overall direction is positive;

2. Binance has always been relatively "user-friendly" and values market feedback. The rules of Alpha have been continuously optimized and will be further improved soon.

But one thing remains unchanged: benefits and opportunities are definitely given to users who contribute and support.

Even if there are interruptions in between, as long as you brush a few transactions daily, you will quickly catch up with the team.

Additionally:
Recently, the losses from B2 and ZKJ are very small, making them the best choices, and it only takes a few minutes to complete, with losses around 1-2 U.

If you don’t even want this free money, then you should think about what money you actually want to earn?

#Alpha #Binance     #BinanceAlpha

#BTC☀️

Structure and Order Flow Data Analysis:

The daily line continues the strong bullish trend that broke 97300 yesterday, and the 4-hour line shows a strong upward trend after breaking the gap. Short-term focus on the 96000-96500 range, if it does not fall below, the upward structure will be maintained;

Market Display:
In the morning, a large bullish candle with increased volume lifted prices, with trading volume mainly concentrated in the 96K area forming key support. Open interest and CVD net buying showed strong upward momentum, capital inflow is evident, and the long-short ratio has declined, with no extreme bullish FOMO seen. Short-term trend continuation is possible, looking towards 99000-99500, and mid-term at 102000.

Heatmap Display:
There is a densely packed short liquidation target in the 98800-99500 area.

Personal Opinion:
During the day, focus on the dual support of the gap FVG and order wall OB in the 96900-96700 range. Touching this area can trigger long positions. If it falls below the 9600 area, it will be seen as a weakening of bulls, with a risk of a pullback to the 95K region, and a densely packed liquidation price at 95500 below.

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Structure and Order Flow Data Analysis:
Starting from 1750, after continuously clearing the liquidity below, it rebounded to around 1830 and is oscillating within the daily box structure adjustment, not yet breaking upwards. If it breaks strongly above the 1840-1860 area, it will initiate a medium-term bullish view towards 2K.

Market Display: Although buying pressure is dominant, it is weaker than BTC, with insufficient momentum. The short-term POC is gathering in the 1825-1830 range, forming a turnover center. Open interest has not significantly increased, and incremental capital has not entered. CVD has slightly risen, but the large trader long-short ratio has decreased, with institutions in a wait-and-see state.

Personal Opinion:
Buy on dips, holding the support area of 1805-1820 for long positions. If it falls below the 1800-1790 range again, it will continue to test the 1770-60 range downwards. Conversely, if it breaks out with volume above the 1840-60 range, then mid-term bullish outlook to higher levels.

$BTC $ETH

#BTC☀️ Today's structure and order flow market data show:

After falling back from the previous high OB (95,800~97,300 range) of the daily line, the overall structure of the daily level has not been destroyed and is still in the relay adjustment period in the upward trend.

The previous low OB support area is about 92,500-91,300 and the FVG gap below is around 89,000-87,500.

The market shows: the holding cost index has declined + short selling is dominant, showing signs of long retreat.

The 93,900-94,600 area has begun to be dominated by active selling, but the 92,000-91,000 below is still a strong liquidity support level.

Suggestion: Before the short-term bearish structure is broken, a small rebound can be made. If the liquidity concentration area of ​​92,800-91,300 is lost, it is expected to further test the daily OB in the 89,000 area.

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Aspects:
The daily line fell below the lower edge of the oscillation channel (about 1780-1800) and formed a structural break. It is currently testing the previous low OB and liquidation concentrated support belt (1725-1700 range), but it is still in a wide range of consolidation and has not yet entered an extreme trend.

The strong support area below the daily line is the FVG+OB overlap area of ​​1680-1650, which is an important mid-line defense point.

The market shows: the long-short Delta continues to be negative, active selling pressure dominates, CVD and position volume decline simultaneously, and there is no obvious stop-loss and accumulation; the position cost moves down, and the short force is still dominant.

The pullback above 1750 is a key weak resistance. If it cannot recover above 1765, the bearish sentiment will continue. It is necessary to prevent further retracement to the 1650 area after breaking below 1700.

Suggestion: A short-term bearish trend is formed. If the large-volume entity falls below 1700, it will confirm that the medium-term cycle has turned bearish.
A large structural retracement in the 1600-1500 range will be opened, and a trend short position can be opened

[The above suggestions are all derived from the market and order flow data analysis, for reference only]

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#TRUMP is the one who cuts leeks
Cutting leeks in various ways

Last night, we held a dinner for the top 200 positions, but not even a big rise helped
Today, it still went down.

Market Order Flow Data Observation and Analysis:
#BTC☀️
In the morning session, there was a large active buy order above 93K, but subsequently, between 93.4K and 93.5K, a state of increased volume stagnation occurred, indicating a divergence point for short-term funds. However, there was no significant outflow in open interest (OI), meaning that the bears have not completely taken control, and it remains a strong structure.
Short-term risk warning: The current price has seen three consecutive rounds of large upward movements, and there exists a certain amount of profit-taking pressure and liquidity cleansing above. If it fails to break above 93,500 with increased volume, a pullback for confirmation is likely.

#Ethereum #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
- A slight basis has appeared between spot and contracts, with capital inflow concentrated in the 1700–1735 range; the high Point of Control (POC) has moved horizontally but has not significantly increased, indicating ineffective upward movement at high levels which may suggest a need for adjustment due to rapid short-term gains.
Short-term focus on 1770–1785; if it cannot quickly absorb selling pressure, it will likely retrace to the 1740–1720 area to seek new support order confirmation.

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#BTC @福禄寿 炒币版

It's been a long time since we discussed macro topics.

However, recently the correlation between U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market has been increasing. In the absence of independent positive news from the crypto market, future trends in the crypto space can refer to U.S. stocks.

In the tweets from the mouthpiece Nick, several pieces of information can be seen, and I will summarize them briefly:

1. Expectations for inflation are rising, and anxiety about increasing inflation will also become a consensus;

2. The 'dovish' stance previously stated by the Federal Reserve may backfire, U.S. Treasury yields may continue to climb, expectations for interest rate cuts continue to decrease, and expectations for rate hikes increase. If they maintain stability, it is likely that they will hold steady;

3. If high interest rates continue, the risk of economic recession will expand, and U.S. stocks will continue to pull back, which is a negative signal for the U.S. stock market.

4. The cryptocurrency market will be affected by this, and in the short term, it may continue to adjust. However, the long-term direction after political intervention remains positive. At the same time, BTC may be actively considered as an inflation-hedging asset, adding to the positive outlook.

Ultimately, we should continue to pay attention to the latest statements from the Federal Reserve, CPI data, and the market's expectations regarding the timing of interest rate cuts.

#SONIC Public chain investment research understanding

Just spent 100,000 US dollars on the "upgraded crowdfunding platform" to support blockchain financing projects with complete procedures

In the next few months, they will also spend money on incentives, obviously to attract new projects to settle in + please the regulator

This move not only takes advantage of the compliance hotspot, but also paves the way for attracting institutional funds in the future

In the short term, follow the trend of the exchange. The on-chain data looks okay, but you have to keep an eye on the key position of 0.7 US dollars

In the long term, it depends on whether they can really reform the handling fee and reward developers If it is implemented, it may be able to break out of the second-tier public chain echelon

Special reminder: You can ambush new projects in their ecosystem in advance, maybe there will be airdrop surprises

Operation suggestions:

Now this wave of breakthroughs is followed by a correction in the market, which is a good opportunity to get on board for the second time

Focus on the two prices of 0.73 and 0.65 US dollars, buy in batches when they reach

Remember to keep some bullets, in case of further decline, you can cover your position

This project is working on the compliance track, there is a hype point in the short term, and the long-term depends on the landing ability. Now the correction is just the opportunity to get on board, but don't go all in!

#IP This wave of aggressive buying is a harsh lesson for the shorts
After a night
The contract open interest has been cut in half
This is a planned aggressive buying against the shorts

This may open a new trading mode after the new coin goes live
Falling after going live, then explosive buying

This is also a high-control target with concentrated chips

Follow #KAITO , do not short

No New Year greetings on the second day of the Chinese New Year, February is coming, let's talk about the market!

"When I go back to the countryside for the New Year, I either play cards together or drive back and forth. It's too tiring!"

I'll take a break today and look at the market. The overall market is adjusting, and Ethereum is strong. During this period of fud, Ethereum has a feeling of being ready to move. Especially some new coins listed on Binance last year, #OMNİ #w #ETHFİ , etc. The prices are already very low. I'm going to wait for time. Will #ETH in February reach a new high of 4800?

#ETH
Ether, pay attention to whether the purple line 3300 watershed is stable. If it is stable, it will break through the trend line to see 3560 (rose red line)
On the contrary, it will continue to adjust under pressure
It has already stood, and watch the trend line break
Recently, ETH has been too FUDed. Although the chain is not good, the ecosystem such as DEFI and staking is still ETH. ETH will rise in the future
Those who have witnessed the Ethereum pull know that once it starts, it is difficult to steal the car!
Attached #ENS Figure 2, too much, watch 41