Crypto_Quill

Key Points
- Research suggests Trump's tariffs in 2025 include a 10% universal tariff on all imports, effective April 5, and higher reciprocal tariffs up to 50% for countries with large U.S. trade deficits, effective April 9.
- It seems likely that these tariffs aim to reduce trade deficits and protect U.S. manufacturing, but they have sparked controversy, with critics warning of inflation and recession risks.
- The evidence leans toward significant market reactions, including U.S. stock losses of $6.6 trillion over two days and global retaliatory measures from countries like China and the EU.
What Are Trump's Tariffs in 2025?
Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs in 2025 as part of his protectionist trade policy. These include a 10% tariff on all imports, effective from April 5, 2025, and higher "reciprocal" tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S., effective April 9, 2025. These reciprocal tariffs range from 11% to 50%, depending on the country, with China facing an effective 54% rate and Canada and Mexico facing 25% on non-USMCA-compliant goods.
Why Were They Imposed?
The tariffs are framed as a response to unfair trade practices, aiming to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, protect American jobs, and address national security concerns. Trump declared a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing issues like currency manipulation and drug trafficking.
What Are the Impacts?
These tariffs have led to significant market volatility, with U.S. stocks losing $6.6 trillion in value over April 3-4, 2025. Global reactions include retaliatory measures from China (up to 34% tariffs on U.S. goods) and the EU (€26 billion in countermeasures). Economists warn of potential inflation, reduced GDP growth, and recession risks, with estimates suggesting a 10% hit to U.S. GDP in Q2 2025.
Detailed Analysis of Trump's Tariffs in 2025
As of April 8, 2025, Donald Trump's tariff policies have marked a significant escalation in U.S. protectionist trade measures, with profound implications for both domestic and global economies. This note provides a comprehensive analysis of the tariffs imposed, their stated purposes, economic impacts, and international reactions, based on recent developments and data.
Overview of Trump's Tariffs in 2025
Trump's second administration has implemented a series of steep tariffs, announced in early 2025, as part of his "Make America Wealthy Again" agenda. Key details include:
- Universal Tariff: On April 2, 2025, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, effective April 5, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EDT. This applies to all countries, with specific exemptions for certain goods such as energy resources, steel, aluminum, pharmaceuticals, and bullion, as outlined in the White House fact sheet ([Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump declares national emergency)
- Reciprocal Tariffs: Starting April 9, 2025, higher reciprocal tariffs were imposed on countries with large trade deficits with the U.S., ranging from 11% to 50%. For example:
- China faces an effective 54% tariff rate, combining the 10% universal tariff with an additional 34% reciprocal tariff.
- Canada and Mexico face a 25% tariff on most goods, with exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods (0% tariff) and a 10% tariff on non-USMCA energy and potash. If IEEPA orders terminate, non-USMCA goods will face a 12% reciprocal tariff.
- Other countries like India (27%), Thailand (36%), and the EU (20%) also face elevated rates, as detailed in recent reports ([Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/)).
The trade-weighted average tariff has risen from 2% to an estimated 24%, the highest level in over a century, surpassing even the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, according to [Wikipedia: Tariffs in the Second Trump Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration).
Specific Tariff Actions and Dates
Key actions and dates include:
- March 26, 2025: Announced a 25% tariff on imported autos, expected to raise $100 billion in tax revenues ([AP News: Autos Tariffs](https://apnews.com/article/autos-tariffs-trump-tax-imports-ford-gm-e53823ef7bbb7b3c46d11eca90aaa638)).
- April 2, 2025: Dubbed "Liberation Day," Trump imposed the universal 10% tariff and reciprocal tariffs, leading to immediate market reactions ([Politico: Trump Tariff Trade Partners](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/02/trump-tariff-trade-partners-liberation-day-00267350)).
- April 3, 2025: Auto tariffs of 25% on non-U.S.-assembled vehicles took effect, with de minimis trade loopholes ending May 2 (duties of 30% value or $25 per item, rising to $50 per item on June 1).
- Ongoing: Sector-specific tariffs, such as potential pharmaceutical duties, are under consideration, though currently exempt.
Stated Purpose and Legal Basis
The tariffs are justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), with Trump declaring a national emergency due to large and persistent U.S. goods trade deficits. The White House cites several reasons:
- Hollowing out of the U.S. manufacturing base.
- Lack of incentive for advanced domestic manufacturing capacity.
- Undermined critical supply chains and dependence on foreign adversaries.
- Addressing nonreciprocal trade relationships, currency manipulation, and high VATs by other countries.
Additionally, tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China are linked to issues like illegal immigration and drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl, as noted in a February 1, 2025, fact sheet ([Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/)).
Economic Impacts
The economic fallout has been significant, with both domestic and global repercussions:
- U.S. Economic Impact:
- The average tariff rate on imports rose from 2.5% in 2024 to 16.5% in 2025, the highest since 1937, according to [Tax Foundation: Trump Tariffs](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/). This is expected to raise $2.9 trillion in revenue over the next decade but shrink U.S. GDP by 0.7%.
- Imports are projected to fall by over $800 billion (25%) in 2025, with a potential 10% hit to GDP in Q2 2025, as estimated by High Frequency Economics ([CNBC: Stock Market Today](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/stock-market-today-live-updates-trump-tariffs.html)).
- Stock markets have seen massive losses, with U.S. stocks losing $6.6 trillion in value over April 3-4, 2025, following the tariff announcements ([Forbes: Stocks Lose $9.6 Trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2025/04/06/stocks-lose-96-trillion---how-to-limit-the-next-plunges-pain/)).
- Consumer impact includes an estimated $1,200 loss in purchasing power per American household, according to the Yale Budget Lab ([NYTimes: Trump Tariff Math](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/opinion/trump-tariff-math-formula.html)).
- GDP growth projections have been revised downward, with the Federal Reserve lowering its forecast from 2.1% to 1.7% for 2025, and the OECD predicting 2.2% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026 ([Economist: Checks and Balance Newsletter](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/04/05/checks-and-balance-newsletter-the-view-as-liberation-day-unfolded)).
- Global Economic Impact:
- Countries with large trade surpluses face significant tariff hikes, impacting their economies. For example, Poland expects a 0.4% GDP loss (~$2.64 billion), and Thailand anticipates a 1% reduction in GDP growth, as reported in [CNBC: Trump Tariffs Live Updates](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/trump-tariffs-live-updates.html).
- Retaliatory measures have intensified trade wars, with China imposing up to 34% tariffs on U.S. goods starting April 10, 2025, and the EU announcing €26 billion in countermeasures on March 12, 2025 ([Reuters: China Imposes Tariffs](https://www.reuters.com/world/china-impose-tariffs-34-all-us-goods-april-10-2025-04-04/), [Guardian: EU Retaliates](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/12/eu-retaliates-against-trump-tariffs-with-26bn-countermeasures)).
#### Market Reactions
The tariff announcements have triggered significant market volatility:
- U.S. Stock Markets:
- Dow futures fell by 1,070 points (2.3%), S&P 500 futures by 3.4%, and Nasdaq-100 futures by 4.2% following the April 2 announcement, as reported in [CNBC: Stock Market Today](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/stock-market-today-live-updates-trump-tariffs.html).
- Individual companies saw sharp declines: Nike (-7%), Apple (-7%), Tesla (-6%), Nvidia (-4.5%), and retailers like Five Below (-15%) and Dollar Tree (-11%), reflecting broader market fears.
- Global Markets:
- Europe's Stoxx 600 index dropped 1.6%, with banks down 3.2% and tech down 2.6%. Specific companies like Puma (-9%), Adidas (-8.6%), Volvo Cars (-9%), and Maersk (-7.4%) were hit hard, as noted in [CNBC: EU Preparing Countermeasures](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/eu-preparing-further-countermeasures-to-us-tariffs-if-negotiations-fail-ec-president-von-der-leyen.html).
- Currency markets saw volatility, with Singapore's Monetary Authority ready to curb fluctuations, and Malaysia noting a 2024 trade surplus of $24.8 billion with the U.S. but not considering reciprocal tariffs.
Global Reactions and Retaliatory Measures
International responses have been varied, with many countries expressing concern and preparing countermeasures:
- European Union: Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck suggested Trump might "buckle under pressure" if Europe bands together, while Italy's PM Giorgia Meloni called the tariffs "wrong" and may adopt responses. France slammed them as an "imperialist posture," as reported in [CNBC: Trump Will Buckle Under Pressure](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trump-will-buckle-under-pressure-if-europe-bands-together-over-tariffs-german-economy-minister.html).
- Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed to fight the tariffs "with force," and the Canadian Senate passed a resolution 51-48 to end them, as noted in [Reuters: US Senate Vote](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-vote-protesting-trumps-tariff-moves-draws-some-republican-support-2025-04-02/).
- China: Described the tariffs as "bullying" and pledged "resolute counter-measures," with shares of PDD Holdings (Temu parent) dropping 8.45% in after-hours trading, according to [CNBC: China Pledges Countermeasures](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/china-pledges-countermeasures-against-sweeping-us-tariffs-donald-trump.html).
- India: Examining implications while continuing talks to increase bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, as per [PIB Press Release](https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2118182).
- United Kingdom: PM Keir Starmer called for "cool heads," emphasizing preparedness and ongoing economic prosperity deal talks, reported in [CNBC: UK Escapes Worst](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/uk-escapes-worst-of-trumps-tariff-wrath-but-says-levies-are-threat.html).
- Australia: PM Anthony Albanese called the decision "not the act of a friend," ruling out counter-levies.
- Norway: PM Jonas Gahr Støre called it "bad news, serious," vowing to negotiate to mitigate impacts on companies and jobs, as per [NRK: Trump Tariffs Norway](https://www.nrk.no/urix/donald-trump-signerer-presidentordre-om-tollauke_-innforer-15-prosent-toll-mot-noreg-1.17367525).
- South Africa: Seeks a new bilateral trade agreement and expresses concern, according to [The Presidency: New US Tariffs](https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/presidency-notes-new-us-tariffs?fbclid=IwY2xjawJbGfdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHdzPnxuZtEqxJysppqLTd40Laww3JdMC06eGOdE0wpPyVsag8ES_XOWm1g_aem_iY_raP7eNwxOfH5z1Dv1LQ).
#### Detailed Table of Reciprocal Tariff Rates
For clarity, here is a table of reciprocal tariff rates by country or territory, effective April 9, 2025, as per [Wikipedia: Tariffs in the Second Trump Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration):
| Country or Territory | Rate |
|------------------------------------------|------|
| Algeria | 30% |
| Angola | 32% |
| Bangladesh | 37% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 35% |
| Botswana | 37% |
| Brunei | 24% |
| Cambodia | 49% |
| Cameroon | 11% |
| Chad | 13% |
| China | 34% |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 11% |
| Equatorial Guinea | 13% |
| European Union | 20% |
| Falkland Islands (United Kingdom) | 41% |
| Fiji | 32% |
| Guyana | 38% |
| India | 26% |
| Indonesia | 32% |
| Iraq | 39% |
| Israel | 17% |
| Ivory Coast | 21% |
| Japan | 24% |
| Jordan | 20% |
| Kazakhstan | 27% |
| Laos | 48% |
| Lesotho | 50% |
| Libya | 31% |
| Liechtenstein | 37% |
| Madagascar | 47% |
| Malawi | 17% |
| Malaysia | 24% |
| Mauritius | 40% |
| Moldova | 31% |
| Mozambique | 16% |
| Myanmar | 44% |
| Namibia | 21% |
| Nauru | 30% |
| Nicaragua | 18% |
| Nigeria | 14% |
| North Macedonia | 33% |
| Norway | 15% |
| Pakistan | 29% |
| Philippines | 17% |
| Serbia | 37% |
| South Africa | 30% |
| South Korea | 25% |
| Sri Lanka | 44% |
| Switzerland | 31% |
| Syria | 41% |
| Taiwan | 32% |
| Thailand | 36% |
| Tunisia | 28% |
| Vanuatu | 22% |
| Venezuela | 15% |
| Vietnam | 46% |
| Zambia | 17% |
| Zimbabwe | 18% |
| All other countries and territories | 10% |
Conclusion
Trump's tariffs in 2025 represent a bold but controversial shift toward protectionism, with a universal 10% tariff and higher reciprocal rates up to 50%. While aimed at reducing trade deficits and protecting U.S. interests, they have triggered significant market volatility, economic uncertainty, and retaliatory actions from trading partners. The evidence suggests potential inflation, reduced GDP growth, and recession risks, with global responses ranging from negotiation to countermeasures. This analysis underscores the complex interplay of trade policies in an interconnected world, with ongoing developments likely to shape economic landscapes in the coming months.
#TrumpTariffs $BTC

As of April 8, 2025, XRP, the cryptocurrency tied to Ripple Labs, continues to hold a prominent spot in the crypto market, currently ranked among the top digital assets by market capitalization. With its price hovering around $1.94 as of recent data, XRP has experienced a rollercoaster ride of volatility and growth over the past year, boasting a remarkable 216.4% increase. However, short-term fluctuations—like a 10% drop in the last week—have left investors and analysts speculating about its next move. What lies ahead for XRP in the coming months? Let’s explore the key factors, technical trends, and potential scenarios shaping its trajectory.
The Current State of XRP
XRP’s price action in early April 2025 reflects a market grappling with both opportunity and uncertainty. Trading at approximately $1.94 with a market cap of $113 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $7.46 billion, XRP remains a heavyweight in the crypto space. Its recent performance shows a 1.6% uptick in the last 24 hours, yet a broader weekly decline suggests consolidation or a potential turning point. This volatility is not new for XRP, which has historically oscillated between periods of stagnation and explosive rallies—its all-time high of $3.40 from January 2018 still looms as a psychological benchmark.
The ongoing Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit, a saga that began in December 2020, remains a critical influence. While Ripple scored a partial victory in July 2023—when a judge ruled that XRP sales on public exchanges weren’t securities offerings—the case drags on with appeals filed by both parties in early 2025. The next significant date, April 16, 2025, marks Ripple’s deadline to file its appeal brief, potentially bringing closure or further clarity. This legal overhang, combined with macroeconomic conditions and crypto market sentiment, sets the stage for XRP’s next move.
Technical Analysis: Reading the Charts
From a technical standpoint, XRP’s current price sits at a crossroads. Analysts note it’s testing key support around $1.86–$1.90, with resistance near $2.17 (its recent 7-day high). A break above this resistance could signal bullish momentum, potentially targeting $2.50 or even $3.00—a level not seen in over seven years. Conversely, a drop below $1.86 might see it slide toward $1.65, a lower support zone.
- Bullish Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently neutral, suggesting XRP isn’t overbought and has room to climb. A “W breakout” pattern on monthly charts, as highlighted by some crypto enthusiasts, hints at a potential surge to $5 or higher if momentum builds. Rising trading volume could confirm this breakout.
- Bearish Risks: A head-and-shoulders pattern forming on shorter timeframes warns of a possible dip to $1.06 if market makers exert downward pressure. Broader market sell-offs, tied to global economic concerns or a stronger U.S. dollar, could amplify this risk.
#### Key Drivers: Adoption and Regulation
XRP’s unique value proposition—near-instant, low-cost cross-border payments—continues to underpin its long-term potential. RippleNet, the payment network leveraging XRP, boasts over 300 financial institution partners, including heavyweights like Santander and SBI Holdings. Recent developments, such as the integration of Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD and approval from the Dubai Financial Services Authority for regulated crypto payments, bolster its utility. If Ripple captures even a fraction of the $150 trillion annual cross-border payment market, XRP’s demand could soar.
The SEC case remains the elephant in the room. A favorable resolution—say, the SEC dropping its appeal or a settlement—could unleash institutional FOMO (fear of missing out), potentially driving XRP past its previous highs. Rumors of XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from firms like Bitwise and 21Shares add fuel to this fire; approval by late 2025 could mimic Bitcoin’s ETF-driven rally in 2024. On the flip side, a prolonged legal battle or unfavorable ruling might cap gains, keeping XRP range-bound.
Predictions: Three Scenarios for XRP’s Next Move
Based on current trends and catalysts, here are three plausible paths for XRP in Q2 2025:
1. Bullish Breakout ($3.00–$5.00)
A positive legal outcome by mid-April, coupled with altcoin season momentum, could propel XRP toward $3.00 quickly, with $5.00 in sight if ETF approvals materialize. This scenario assumes strong institutional buying and a breakout above $2.17 resistance, supported by Ripple’s expanding payment network. Historical precedent—like the 100% rally post-2023 ruling—suggests this is feasible.
2. Sideways Consolidation ($1.80–$2.20)
If the SEC case drags on without resolution and broader market conditions remain tepid, XRP might trade sideways. This range reflects indecision, with support holding at $1.86 and resistance capping gains at $2.17. This scenario is likely if regulatory uncertainty persists and adoption grows steadily but not explosively.
3. Bearish Correction ($1.06–$1.65)
A negative legal twist or a crypto market downturn could push XRP lower. A drop to $1.06 aligns with bearish technical patterns, while $1.65 offers a stronger support base. This would test investor resilience, especially if macroeconomic headwinds—like a global trade war or recession fears—intensify.
The Bigger Picture
XRP’s next move hinges on a delicate balance of legal clarity, market dynamics, and real-world adoption. Its edge over competitors—transactions settling in 3-5 seconds for fractions of a cent—positions it as a leader in payments, but it faces stiff competition from stablecoins and emerging blockchain networks. The potential inclusion in a U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve, as floated by some policymakers, could further legitimize XRP, though such developments remain speculative.
For traders, the short-term play is watching $1.86 support and $2.17 resistance, with April 16 as a key date. For long-term holders, XRP’s fundamentals—rooted in Ripple’s vision to disrupt a multi-trillion-dollar industry—suggest staying the course.
Whether it surges to $5, consolidates, or corrects, XRP’s journey in 2025 will be one to watch closely. What’s your prediction—bullish breakout or cautious retreat? The market’s next chapter is unfolding now.
$XRP
$BTC

Bitcoin's Next Move: Analyzing Trends and Predictions for April 2025
As of April 8, 2025, Bitcoin remains the flagship cryptocurrency, captivating investors, traders, and enthusiasts alike with its volatile yet transformative journey. With its price history marked by dramatic rallies and steep corrections, the question on everyone’s mind is: What’s Bitcoin’s next move? While no one can predict the market with absolute certainty, we can analyze current trends, market dynamics, and expert sentiment to paint a clearer picture of where Bitcoin might be headed in the near term.
The Current Landscape
Bitcoin’s price in early April 2025 reflects a market still digesting the aftermath of its 2024 performance. After hitting an all-time high late last year—driven by institutional adoption, macroeconomic shifts, and renewed retail interest—Bitcoin has entered a phase of consolidation. Analysts point to several factors shaping its current trajectory: global economic uncertainty, regulatory developments, and the ongoing evolution of blockchain technology.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy continues to play a pivotal role. With inflation concerns lingering and interest rates fluctuating, Bitcoin’s narrative as a "digital gold" hedge against fiat depreciation is being tested. Meanwhile, regulatory clarity—or lack thereof—in major markets like the United States, Europe, and Asia is keeping traders on edge. Add to this the upcoming Bitcoin halving cycle (the next one isn’t until 2028, but its long-term effects still loom large), and the stage is set for a complex interplay of forces.
Technical Analysis: What the Charts Say
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action offers some clues. As of today, it’s hovering around a key support level—let’s assume $75,000 for illustrative purposes, though the exact figure depends on real-time data. This level has historically acted as a springboard for upward momentum or, conversely, a breakdown point leading to deeper corrections.
- Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds above this support and breaks through its 50-day moving average (currently trending slightly above), it could signal a push toward $85,000 or even retest its all-time high. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral, suggesting room for upward movement without being overbought. A surge in trading volume, coupled with positive news—like a major ETF approval or corporate adoption—could ignite a rally.
- Bearish Case: On the flip side, a failure to maintain support could see Bitcoin slide toward $65,000 or lower, especially if macroeconomic headwinds intensify (e.g., a stronger U.S. dollar or stock market sell-off). A drop below the 200-day moving average would likely trigger panic selling among short-term holders.
Market Sentiment and External Catalysts
Sentiment in the crypto community is a mixed bag. Optimists point to growing adoption—think Tesla doubling down on its Bitcoin holdings or emerging markets embracing it as a remittance tool. The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and layer-2 solutions like the Lightning Network also bolsters Bitcoin’s utility, potentially driving demand.
However, bears argue that regulatory crackdowns could stifle growth. China’s renewed crypto ban enforcement and murmurs of stricter rules in the EU could dampen enthusiasm. Additionally, environmental concerns around Bitcoin mining energy consumption remain a PR challenge, even as the industry shifts toward renewable energy sources.
Predictions: Where Could Bitcoin Go Next?
Based on current trends, here are three plausible scenarios for Bitcoin’s next move in Q2 2025:
1. Breakout to New Highs ($90,000–$100,000)
A catalyst—say, a G20 nation endorsing Bitcoin as a reserve asset—could spark a parabolic run. Institutional FOMO (fear of missing out) would kick in, driving prices to new psychological milestones. Historical patterns post-consolidation support this possibility, though it hinges on sustained bullish momentum.
2. Sideways Consolidation ($70,000–$80,000)
More likely in the short term, Bitcoin could trade in a tight range as the market awaits clearer signals. This would reflect indecision among traders, with neither bulls nor bears gaining the upper hand—a classic “wait-and-see” phase.
3. Correction to $60,000 or Below
If global risk-off sentiment spikes (e.g., a recession scare), Bitcoin could face a sharp pullback. While long-term holders might weather the storm, leveraged positions would liquidate, amplifying the drop. This scenario aligns with Bitcoin’s correlation to equities during turbulent times.
Conclusion: Eyes on the Horizon
Bitcoin’s next move remains a tug-of-war between optimism and caution. For traders, the key is adaptability—watching support and resistance levels, monitoring volume, and staying attuned to news cycles. For long-term investors, the bigger picture still holds: Bitcoin’s value proposition as a decentralized, scarce asset endures, even amidst short-term noise.
As we progress through 2025, one thing is certain: Bitcoin’s journey will continue to captivate and confound. Whether it surges to six figures or retraces to test resolve, its role in reshaping finance is undeniable. What’s your take—bullish, bearish, or somewhere in between? The market’s next chapter is waiting to be written.
#TrumpTariffs $BTC

Bitcoin's recent crash is reminiscent of the market downturn on March 12 following the global emergency surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic.Bitcoin rose over 1,000% after the COVID crash; could repeat a similar move if the Fed begins cutting rates.Investors should pay close attention to Bitcoin ETF flows, health of crypto companies and signs of potential market bottom.
In a memo to investors on Monday, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan noted that the recent crypto market crash has provided an "opportunity" for Bitcoin (BTC) to replicate a similar move to its rise post-COVID lockdown.
Why Bitcoin's recent downturn provides "opportunity"
Bitcoin suffered its heaviest loss since the FTX crash within the past few days after declining about 20% between Friday and Monday morning. The move took the crypto market loss since the beginning of August to over half a trillion dollars.
A series of bearish events — lower than expected Non-farm Payroll (NFP) data, geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the Japanese hiking interest rate, and Kamala Harris's increased odds on Polymarkets — coupled with a low liquidity weekend exacerbated the impact on the market

The crash wasn't limited to crypto as the entire capital market nosedived, with the Japanese stock market suffering the most.
Hougan highlighted that the last time the capital market faced such a selloff was on March 12, following a global emergency on the COVID-19 impact. Bitcoin took a 37% hit, declining from $7,911 to $4,971. However, an external crisis doesn't change Bitcoin's fundamentals. The quantitative easing programs and rate cutting by banks saw Bitcoin rise quickly by more than 1,000% to $57,322 within a year, noted Hougan.
"At the same time, Covid supercharged the reasons for bitcoin's long-term rise. It showed that central banks would bail out the economy at the first sign of trouble. It demonstrated the limitations of centralized institutions. And it reminded us that the future is more online and digital," said Hougan.
Similarly, market participants, including Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, have begun anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its September meeting. Polymarket shows that the odds of a 50+ basis points rate cut have surpassed 55%. Hougan highlighted a few metrics to watch ahead of a potential market pullback:
Watch if the crypto market has found its bottom as over 1 billion in liquidations could signify a potential bottom is on the horizon. According to Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant's founder and CEO, Bitcoin is still above the average cost basis of mining companies. A decline below this level confirmed a bearish market in previous market downturnsBTC Cost-basis ComparisonPay attention to the overall health of crypto companies as the 2022 market crash reveals that sharp market declines "could take down firms with overleveraged balance sheets."Observe flows across crypto ETFs to see if ETF investors join the crowd by selling off their holdings or serve as a backstop for the market bleed. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted that Bitcoin ETFs could see overall net inflows when issuers' flow data comes in later.
Meanwhile, Capula Management, the fourth largest fund in the EU, has reported investing $500 million in Bitcoin ETFs

The crypto prices today have taken an alarmingly bearish turn, raising significant concerns among market participants. Bitcoin’s (BTC) price dipped as low as the $60K level, although it neared $62K as the day longed. Further, Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana prices tanked 4%-7%, in alignment with the broader market trend, News.Az reports citing CoinGape.
The global crypto market cap saw a 4.76% decline to $2.19 trillion today. However, the total crypto market volume increased by 10.72% to $95.22 billion.

Here’s a brief look at the leading cryptocurrencies by market cap and their price movements today, August 3.
BTC price cracked 4.31% in the past 24 hours to trade at $61,684.14. Its 24-hour bottoms and tops were recorded as $60,452.02 and $65,468.82, respectively.

After nearing the $65K mark as the U.S. employment data came in higher than expected, the coin has regained a bearish movement, sparking speculations. It’s worth noting that the bankrupt firm Genesis moved a whopping $1.5 billion in BTC and ETH amid creditor repayment plans, aligning with the current price movement.

Bitcoin’s dominance saw a 0.23% increase over the past day to 55.48%, hinting at the altcoin market’s comparatively poor performance.

However, the Bitcoin ETFs saw notable outflows as of August 2, worth $237 million, aligning with the waning price movement. Also, the buying interest for the flagship crypto saw a considerable decrease.

Nonetheless, as the day longed, BTC price gained momentum towards the $62K mark, reaching $61,892.29.

Ethereum Price

Meanwhile, the ETH price showed signs of a pullback, falling 5.91% to $2,978.99. Its 24-hour bottoms and peaks were recorded as $2,911.93 and $3,179.4, respectively.

As mentioned above, Genesis’ creditor repayment-related transfer falls in line with the coin’s volatile movement. Meanwhile, ETH ETFs recorded over $54 million in outflows as of August 2, further validating the coin’s slumping action.

Peter Schiff‘s remarks amid this waning momentum has further sparked investor concerns. The Bitcoin critic claimed ETH is going to $2k amid rising outflows in ETF.

Solana Price

The SOL price witnessed a 6.76% dip in value and was trading at $153.22 at press time. Solana’s 24-hour lows and highs were recorded as $149.07 and $167.41, respectively.

Despite the recent steep fall of the Solana coin, on-chain metrics have offered bullish support for a potential $200 target retest.

XRP Price

The crypto XRP price saw a 4.08% fall in value and is currently trading at $0.5631. XRP’s 24-hour bottoms and tops were recorded to be $0.5446 and $0.5817, respectively. This waning momentum comes against the backdrop of hundreds of millions of XRP unlocked from escrow via Ripple.

DOGE & SHIB Prices

Simultaneously, Dogecoin price witnessed a 4.45% decrease today, reaching $0.1124. Similarly, Shiba Inu’s price experienced a 5.60% decline to $0.00001465.

Further, Pepe coin, WIF, and FLOKI tumbled 8%-13% over the past day, aligning with the broader market trend.