Crypto_Painter

The complexity of the crypto market and Web3 is rising sharply!

Just like the complex financial products packaged by Wall Street...

But it seems that the logic of making money has not changed at all from 200 years ago to now, still: Buy low - Sell high - Take free!

So before making any decisions, it's best to ask yourself:
Is it low? Is it high? Is it free?

[ETFs net inflow data] Monday's net inflow data is 62 million US dollars!

62.2M is a good start for this week, but one thing that still needs to be noted is that since April, the overall net inflow and outflow data of ETFs has shrunk as a whole, as shown in the figure;

Although I don't want to admit it, it seems that within the current price range, the customers behind ETFs have completed the basic position building.

Next step?

#BTCAnnual Average Investment Return Curve] The manifestation of marginal effect!

If you calculate the investment return rate of BTC one year after buying it at any time, you will see some interesting patterns in BTC history. The red curve in the figure always has an average bottom range (0.15-0.3), which gives us a new way to calculate the bottom, that is, from the peak of the bull market, the price drops by more than 70%, and there is a high probability that it will enter the bottom range;

Of course, this is a typical case of trying to find a sword by carving a boat, but it is in line with the rhythm of the bear market in BTC history; When the same method is used to judge the top, we will see a gradually moving downward peak of the top yield, which is affected by a downward trend line, which looks bad!

Note that the value of this indicator is the result-oriented data I mentioned earlier. It cannot be used to simply find patterns and predict the market. That will not help trading, but may lead to subjective bias;

And the effective conclusion we should be able to draw from this data is that as the price of BTC gradually rises, the increase rate of each round of bull market will be affected by the higher price. To some extent, this is a manifestation of marginal effect under a long-term bull trend.

That's all~

【Liquidity Analysis】Short liquidity shows what is called "endless";

In the past 7 days, as the price gradually stabilized and rebounded, we saw that short liquidity reappeared quickly after each liquidation. I seemed to see traders who were shorting mechanically repeating the cycle of "shorting" - "stop loss at local highs" - "stop loss" - "shorting again";

Short traders looked at the technical analysis, the macro analysis, and the trends of US stocks and gold, and believed that the price rebound should be in place, but the reality is that the price continued to rise a small step after the shock, causing his short position to lose again and again, which was painful;

As everyone knows, the main reason for the continuous shock and rise in prices is themselves! Due to the overall shrinking volume of spot transactions, the dominance of the market has returned to futures. Where there is a lot of liquidity, the price will go there, and the biggest enemy of the shorts happens to be other shorts who short with him;

I wonder if there are friends who have also suffered losses from shorting? If so, do you plan to continue to stick to it?

[Technical Analysis] I can't stand being tortured by this boring market of #BTC!

The rising wedge we are currently in has lasted for a whole week. A small rise this morning successfully broke through the swing high of 67,000 on the left, but the price did not show the expected large-volume breakthrough + long real demand column, but went out of 4 consecutive 1h-level sideways, and then failed to fall back and fell below the supply zone of 66,800-67,000 again;

Considering that this is a false breakthrough to capture liquidity, the wedge pattern is still valid. Although the price is still fluctuating upward, in terms of technical form, the rising wedge with shrinking volume is a bearish pattern before breaking through the upper edge of the wedge with large volume, especially when the price effectively falls below the lower edge of the wedge.

On the ASR indicator, the 1h price is testing the yellow pressure level. The small range of 66300-66800 can focus on observing whether there is a divergence between volume and price after the increase in volume;

If there is, it means that the supply in this area has increased, and the price may still fall back or even draw a gate;

If the volume is directly penetrated, the target will be in the orange range.

In short, since the US stock market has not opened yet and liquidity has not entered the market, it is now a chicken-pecking-chicken-pecking-chicken-pecking-ing. . .

Judging from the shrinking volume in the morning, the downward break last night was not a break below the lower edge, but a normal retracement. It can be seen that short-term traders in the market have different structural consensus on this pattern;
(Figure 1)

It can be seen that the power of the demand side is indeed stronger than the supply side, which should be largely attributed to the fact that miners completely stopped selling after the halving, and even transferred out from the exchange;
(Figure 2)

The actual significance of the halving is reflected for the first time!

Without considering any technical, news, or macro factors, what do you think of the current K-line at a glance? What do you think of the market?

[Daily Market Overview]#BTCclosed at $63452 on Monday. After being affected by the news last night, it fell further with the Nasdaq, but the price did not break a new low and was still fluctuating in the large range of 61000-73800;
(Figure 1)
Technical aspect:
By comparing the performance of the price rebounding after two pullbacks at the lower edge of the range, we can clearly see that demand is weakening;

The K-line color in the figure is drawn based on the VCI indicator. The higher the trading volume, the darker the color, and vice versa, the lighter the color, the lower the trading volume;

As shown on the left side of the above figure, when the price first touched the lower edge of the range, a long real positive line with volume appeared in a short period of time, indicating that the demand near the lower edge of the range was strong. The subsequent pullback showed 4 4h long lower shadows, indicating that the demand has not withdrawn and the supply has been consumed;

The rebound after the price pulled back to the lower edge of the range this time showed an overall shrinkage, which means that the demand at the lower edge of the range is not as strong as the first rebound. Subsequently, when the price continued to pull back to above 62000, no obvious price pattern appeared;

Therefore, from a technical point of view, when the price correction further touches the lower edge of the range, the probability of falling below the lower edge of the 61,000 range has increased significantly;

So one point is given to the shorts;

Liquidity level:
There is no obvious long liquidity magnetic area below the current market. For a week, the main liquidity magnetic area has been concentrated at 71,700, totaling 1.45 billion US dollars;
(Figure 2)
Considering that the funding rate of the current futures market is still at a very low level (less than 0.01% on average), the attraction of the short liquidity magnetic area above the market is much stronger;

However, one thing to note is that the main supplier that caused the price to fall before came from the spot, so there will be a situation where the short liquidity will fall without clearing. After all, the weight of the spot for pricing is higher than that of the futures;

If the negative news from the news is released, such as Israel has completed its military retaliation goals and Iran has endured it, then this part of the spot safe-haven supply will be weakened, and the market will return to the state dominated by futures, that is, the shock washing trend will go to where the liquidity is strong.

Therefore, before the negative impact of the news ends, the impact of futures liquidity on prices is not strong, so no score will be given for the time being;

On-chain data:
In recent days, the net inflow of miners has shrunk overall, but there has been a relatively continuous sell-off, with an average of 2,000 BTC spot transferred to the exchange every day;
(Figure 3)
In addition to miners, on-chain transfer data shows that retail investors are still continuing to buy BTC in small amounts (less than 1 coin), but their overall demand cannot even take over the supply from miners, so the current market demand is very weak from the perspective of funding sources;

Therefore, add one point to the shorts;

ETFs net inflow data:
Since last Friday, ETFs net inflow data has always remained negative;
(Figure 4)
In addition, a strange phenomenon appeared in all ETF data; The only net inflow party is BlackRock's ETF, while all other long-side ETFs maintain a value of 0. What is even more disturbing is that Grayscale's net outflow is always higher than BlackRock's net inflow, and the swap operations between the two ETFs are very frequent;

We can therefore speculate that the current multi-party ETFs (including BlackRock) have actually completely stopped buying and increasing their holdings, and part of the net inflows we see are likely to come entirely from Grayscale's outflows.

As shown in the above figure, if the net inflow and outflow data of BlackRock and Grayscale are subtracted by 73.4 at the same time, the ETF data we see will become that the net inflows of multi-party ETFs are all 0, and only Grayscale has a net outflow of 36.7;

ETF funds mainly come from US dollar cash. Under the current monetary policy and the postponement of interest rate cut expectations, there has indeed been a certain degree of liquidity depletion, so one point is given to shorts;

To sum up
Long: 42
Short: 42
Long-short difference: 0

The long-short difference drops to 0, which means that the current game between the long and short sides of the market has entered a zero boundary point of a change. The next focus should be on which side can have new reinforcements and bring decisive power.

That's all.

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Thank you for reading!

[Daily Market Overview]#BTCclosed at $71622 on Monday. The 4h price successfully broke through the previous supply zone with volume, but then encountered resistance near the orange line of the support and pressure indicator and entered a long period of shock and correction. Today, we will focus on whether this wave of market is a false breakthrough or the starting point of a new trend;

(Figure 1)
Technical aspect: The price broke through the upper edge of the triangle and penetrated the 71500 area with volume. Then the demand began to dry up. When the price stepped back to the 71500 support, it fell slightly. Since the volume did not shrink, it can be judged that there is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand at this position;

Today, we need to pay attention to whether the small-level rising trend line will fall, and whether 71500 (the white area in the figure) can be recovered; If it can be recovered, it can be confirmed that the big triangle has officially broken through, and the market still has the possibility of continuing to move to a new high. If it continues to fluctuate and fall, resulting in the small-level rising trend line being broken, then the price is likely to continue to move downward in a similar market situation, stepping back to the upper edge of the previous big triangle;

Considering that 71500 has indeed been broken, before a false breakthrough occurs, it is still necessary to give the bulls one point; Liquidity level: some short liquidity began to reappear near the local high point of 73,000 on the left, but not as much as the long liquidity below 68,800. At the same time, the overall funding rate began to rise, and the perpetual rate of OKX has reached 0.03%;

(Figure 2)
Based on this situation, the long liquidity below is more attractive, and the market begins to be unfavorable to the longs. The probability of stepping back to the upper edge of the big triangle mentioned in the technical aspect is high; Therefore, one point is given to the shorts;

(Figure 3)
On-chain data: miners' net inflow has shrunk significantly. As the halving time approaches, it can be guessed that most miners with computing power advantages have completed the replacement of mining machines, so the selling pressure from miners can be almost ignored;

(Figure 4)
Before the spot volume of miners transferred to the exchange increases significantly, the daily analysis will no longer conduct special analysis on miners' data; However, since there is a lot less supply, one point should be given to the longs; ETFs net inflow data: I have to say that it is a very bad data. There was a net outflow of US$224 million on Monday;

Although Grayscale is still the main supplier, it is worth noting that the large amount of funds that flowed out this time did not choose to switch positions to BlackRock or Fidelity, but actually flowed out of this market;Therefore, give one point to the bears!

To sum up
Long: 37
Short: 28
Long-short difference: 9

The long-short difference has not changed significantly, indicating that the bulls still have a certain degree of advantage. Considering that the price may still rise after the correction and stabilization.

If the analysis in this article is helpful to you, please like, forward and comment!

Thank you for reading!

I was invited by the Binance lady to come to the square to play!

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In the future, I will synchronize the content of Twitter to the square, share some data and indicators, do quantitative trading and technical analysis, and occasionally move the content of Douyin.

I wish you all good fortune!