Recently, the market has become interesting. A big bullish candle in Btc has changed the market atmosphere; coins that were originally facing delisting are surging violently one by one, with Voxel, Bsw, and Nkn being the most prominent (it was initially thought they were all going to be delisted); now various coins are eager to try. Overall, the current market is more suitable for going long. Here, let's talk about Alpaca, which has announced it will be delisted, but it has contracts and a small market cap, making it easy to manipulate. The contracts are settled on the 30th, so there can be back-and-forth trading until the 28th. I tried it yesterday, and going long is still more cost-effective with spot purchases because the contracts do not follow the price when it reaches high points. This coin has high volatility, high risk, and high return, so it is only suitable for limited participation. Currently, one can buy the dip on coins they are optimistic about, and they can be ambushed before a significant surge. I chose Vine and plan to make a small ambush, adding more if it starts moving. Additionally, recently launched new coins have small market caps and mostly experience repeated fluctuations, so it is also possible to buy low and capitalize on price differences. For example, baby, which still seems likely to rise further.
Waking up in the morning and seeing a plummeting coin Om again, I checked the information and it seems to say that there are some issues with the core team and operations. Anyway, it has already collapsed, and the specific reasons for it are no longer important. After all, we are accustomed to similar situations, like the previous ones with auction, act, 1000sats, mask, etc. OM has dropped significantly and quickly. It could have been a good opportunity for a rebound, but unfortunately, it dropped late at night, and once the moment was missed, there was no chance to seize the rebound. Now, we can only wait for an opportunity to go short. Currently, there is a rebound, but trying to short around 1.3 doesn't feel solid, as according to Fibonacci retracement, an ideal short point would be around 2.7. However, whether it can rise again will depend on the completion of the time cycle. By the way, my recent trading strategy is to select a batch from the coins that were voted to be delisted (as shown in the image: Voxel, alpaca, bsw, flm, nkn, perp, gps), looking for rebound opportunities to go short, and in principle, I shouldn't chase shorts.
I mentioned on the 11th that there was an empty Vidt, and emphasized that leverage should be low. At that time, the spot price surged to around 0.27, and the contract price exceeded 0.25. After that, the price fell back for a wave and then surged above 0.3. Oh my, it actually broke through the new high. At this point, professionals are aware that this is the last lure for buyers. The reason is simple: if the project team had the strength to revive and grow bigger and stronger, it would not have fallen to the point of being delisted. Some may wonder why a coin that is about to be delisted dares to surge so much? I also pondered and guessed that perhaps the market was so weak that there was no one to take the sell-off, and a reverse surge could tempt purely technical players to take over. Additionally, the project team may have opened long positions, driving up prices to eliminate short sellers and make a profit first... Hehe... From the results, if you shorted at 0.25, those who couldn't hold on during the subsequent surge would be harvested, while those who held on and persisted until the end would be the winners. The cruelty of the trading market is like a battlefield; those who are indecisive and follow the crowd are like scattered soldiers on the battlefield, which is hard to achieve anything significant. Only those with clear goals and firm resolve can endure hardships and move forward step by step.
Recently, a batch of coins to be delisted experienced a rebound after a sharp decline. Initially, it was a pleasant situation, but then a troublesome VIDT appeared, with a rebound magnitude that was a bit exaggerated, moving not as a rebound but as a reversal. It has been delisted, and the final outcome will be zero, but after all, the market cap is small and easily manipulated. Therefore, every time there is a rise, it is still possible to short, but the leverage should be low.
Additionally, for coins like Troy and Nuls that have plummeted and then rebounded, according to the principle of the golden ratio, the magnitude is within theoretical limits, making it easier to short at the high points of the rebound.
The replacement coin Form has experienced high-level fluctuations and is likely to turn into a downtrend. The broad range is 2.6~1.7. If trading short, you can open a short position near the rebound at 2.0. If trading a larger wave, wait for the fluctuations and downtrend to complete, then open a short position upon a significant rebound.
We pay attention to the rising and falling rankings every day, after all, the top rank has great volatility and operability. But if the price rises too much, shorting can lead to problems, and if it falls too much, trying to catch a rebound can also be problematic. The key point is to first distinguish between bullish and bearish trends. Simply put, for example, in a bearish trend like Auction, after two waves of rebound, you can directly short. On the other hand, Fun has become a bullish trend; shorting at new highs can easily lead to being trapped, and even if a peak is reached, it will oscillate repeatedly, making it difficult to drop directly.
AUCTION has experienced a sharp decline with little rebound in strength. Previously, after a wave of sharp declines, we saw a rebound, and I opened a short position around 25, predicting a drop to 15. Then the price exceeded expectations when it started rising... Currently, the 4-hour chart shows a rebound of 4 candlesticks, indicating the end of a continuous downtrend, and a major fluctuation is likely to follow. The drop has been significant enough, so theoretically, one can open a short position near the rebound high or wait for further drops to seize the rebound. Additionally, there is absolutely no support for a rebound at 1000 Sats, so we continue to maintain a bearish outlook and should not try to catch the rebound. Act has already completed a rebound pattern.
Another batch of coins has been placed under observation, and then they plummeted. Looking at these coins, their market values are not large, currently under observation, and may eventually be delisted, ultimately heading further down the path to zero... So, you can choose two or three to short on the rebound, for example, Nkn, Perp, Voxel
Recently, cryptocurrencies that have suddenly plummeted have emerged one after another, indicating the fragility of the market. I've seen people say that the contract open interest is too large, and they are betting on breaking their opponents. But the problem is, why is it not pushing up to break the shorts, but instead pushing down? Overall, there's no need to chase the rebound... it's not about fear, but it's unnecessary. Just properly rebound and open shorts, and control stop losses and take profits. For situations with high volatility, lower the leverage and widen the stop-loss range a bit, so the win rate will increase.
Seeing that Layer has risen again, I want to place an order to short it, without a stop loss. Overall, it should be a big fluctuation, and I can make a profit from the difference. I will place a short order at 1.52, but I'm worried that I won't be able to enter if I set it at 1.55.
Each new coin launch has to empty a wave, this time I thought it would be a back-and-forth fluctuation. I went short for a wave and then closed it, thinking I would wait for a rebound to open again. As a result, it kept falling, completely unreasonable……
ALCH quick rebound, there is significant resistance above 0.085, so it is possible to open a short position near the resistance level, with a stop loss at 0.096 and take profit around 0.06.
Just now, there was an upward shadow line, and I was slow to enter the short position; I can wait and see, perhaps there will be more fluctuations.
Recently, some coins have suddenly plummeted, such as Lina which was announced to be delisted earlier; holders saw the news and suffered significant losses. A few days ago, Auction also suddenly crashed; most recently, it is the Sats coin. My opinion is that even if such coins drop a lot, don’t try to catch the bottom. Sats is currently consolidating, and of course, it is not advisable to short; one should wait for a rebound before opening a short position.
For more than a month, I have mainly been shorting and have given up on bottom fishing in spot markets. After all, the overall market environment is not good. There are three types of shorting strategies: 1) Shorting new coins upon launch, generally speaking, there are more profitable trades than losses; 2) Shorting re-listed coins, most are profitable, with a few losses, such as the loss from the form after the bnX swap; 3) Coins with significant upward movements, recently Rare, Cake, and Banana have all been relatively smooth trades; of course, there are also coins like Ip that oscillate at high levels without much drop (but the Ip coin can't stay flat forever, it should break down eventually). In summary, currently, the best strategy is to short. If you hold coins waiting for a rise, you never know when they might crash.
Changed the computer, Windows 7 system, 64-bit processor. Reinstalled the client, but it doesn't work. It shows that it cannot locate kernel32.dll, as shown in the screenshot. I tried updating the dll file myself but was unsuccessful. Is it not supported on the Windows 7 system?
BNX will be replaced by Form and will resume spot trading today at 16:00. In the past, replacement coins were suspended for three days before resuming trading. This time, the Form clearly enjoys special treatment, going online quickly, which shows a sense of urgency. As the replacement coin goes back online, we are looking to short it. However, the announcement only mentions spot trading, and if the contracts go online later, it’s not advisable to chase shorts, as the project party has a high level of control and enjoys playing tricks. In short, the direction is short, and we need to find the oscillation highs for entry.
MUBARAK is online, reportedly a meme coin launched by CZ. Currently, only the contract is online, and there is no spot trading available. People have developed a habitual mindset that when a new coin is launched, they should short it. However, for varieties that only have contracts available, one should not be too hasty to short for two reasons: first, the new product has just been released, and the hype period is still ongoing; second, if Binance launches spot trading next, the speculative enthusiasm will likely increase. In summary, when encountering such varieties that only have contracts available, it is wise to cautiously look for long opportunities first, and then wait for the hype to subside before shorting; only then will it drop significantly.
The replacement of Ern to Epic will resume trading today at 16:00. As for the replacement coin, no need for repeated analysis; it is expected to drop after going live. Contract trading should be delayed in going live; as I said before, do not directly short the contract once it's live, wait for a high point in the fluctuation before trying to short.
Since ancient times, deep affection cannot be retained; it is always tricks that capture people's hearts. Recently, the market has been trending stagnant, as many people have been trapped, many have seen their funds shrink, and some have even exited the market. Thus, it is once again time to test the performance. Project parties perform like magic, with various tricks to attract the limited liquidity in the market.
Example 1: Bnx, suddenly surged, announced at a high point, then played with range fluctuations, seemingly saying, if you want to buy, pay a high price, if you love it, buy it or not, in short, very arrogant. In fact, it is just a token swap; no matter how beautifully the story is told, the essence remains the same. Example 2: Ern, only announced when the swap time was nearing, quickly surged, then played with large range fluctuations. Example 3: New token Red. Previously, new tokens were launched with no bottom line for harvesting, then when no one was left to take over, a new gameplay was adopted. What’s with the price limit restriction? It’s merely about low pre-market trading volume, creating a sense of scarcity and fostering a false impression of supply not meeting demand, making it impossible for retail investors to buy, brewing FOMO feelings. When officially launched, the trading volume suddenly increases, revealing its true nature. (Exchanges should base their operations on trust; playing tricks every time a new token is launched will only cause unease, rather than a sense of novelty.) Overall, there is still a chance for new token Red in pre-market trading; once the price limit is lifted, one can make a profit on the spread. When officially launched, still look for a high point to short.
Everyone loves to listen to stories, watch performances, and eat meat and drink wine. How happy it is! If you meet a stingy person, there is no wine or meat, only stories, and the stories are not told well, and the heat will be annoying. BNX rises quickly, and does not want to give everyone a chance. It only releases the story after the rise, and the story is incomplete and confusing. But after all, the story is told, the performance is over, and it’s time to leave. Here are two similar examples with different gameplay. One is Usual, where the story line is relatively clear at the beginning and the time node is also clear. The second is Zen, where the story is not released until halfway through the performance. Generally speaking, these two give everyone a chance. After the rising process is completed, the falling process begins. Old players know how to operate.
VINE's decline is not ordinary. It basically fell back to the high-volume area where it was initially listed. After sideways trading, it rebounded and still has explosive power.
If it continues to fluctuate upward, it can be bought on a small retracement and speculate on small waves.
Overall, the profit and loss ratio is still very cost-effective.