必分析

This week, the U.S. Treasury market encountered the most severe single-week volatility since the 2019 repo market turmoil, with fluctuations even exceeding the levels observed during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Particularly noteworthy is that the severe volatility in the Treasury market has posed large-scale clearing risks for basis arbitrage strategies, a scenario reminiscent of the liquidity crisis in March 2020: at that time, numerous hedge funds were forced to sell other assets to raise liquidity, leading to a freeze in the repo market and multiple circuit breakers in U.S. stocks. So, is this abnormal volatility in the Treasury market a further manifestation of the risks posed by Trump's tariff policy, or does it herald the prelude to a larger-scale crisis?

On April 18, local time, at the podium in the White House that bears countless significant decisions and historical moments, the spotlight poured down like a scorching flame. President Trump stood tall and confident, delivering a speech that was as shocking as thunder. His gaze was piercing, his words fervent, and he hoarsely reiterated that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell must lower interest rates, as if he firmly believed that this measure was the miraculous remedy to save the American economy from disaster, capable of instantly raising the sails of hope for this giant ship called the American economy and steering it towards prosperity. Meanwhile, Trump smiled confidently, expressing that the possibility of reaching an agreement between the United States and Ukraine shone like brilliant stars, close at hand, as if a magnificent picture of mutual progress and win-win cooperation had already been perfectly outlined in his mind. However, just recently, at the podium of the Chicago Economic Club, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stood like a warrior holding the line, facing the tumultuous waves of the market. His gaze was firm, his attitude resolute, and he declared emphatically that the Federal Reserve would never be flustered by short-term market fluctuations nor take emergency measures. This statement, like a loud horn, instantly stirred up waves in the seemingly calm yet turbulent ocean of the financial world, tightening the hearts of countless investors and observers. Trump's reaction was as rapid and intense as a volcanic eruption. He glared fiercely and mercilessly launched a stormy criticism of Powell, his sharp words piercing like daggers into Powell's policy stance. By the 17th, Trump escalated his attacks like an angry lion, exerting tremendous pressure on Powell as if a mountain were pressing down, even boasting that he could immediately have Powell pack his bags, while asserting in an undeniable tone that the Federal Reserve must lower interest rates immediately, as if the Fed's interest rate policy were a toy he could manipulate at will.

Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chair Powell, even publicly stating a desire to fire him, mainly for the following reasons:
1. Differences in Monetary Policy
Dissatisfaction with Interest Rate Cuts: Trump has long criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike policies, believing that high rates hinder economic growth, especially placing pressure on manufacturing and exports. He has repeatedly called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the Fed under Powell has taken a relatively cautious stance in addressing inflation and economic growth, not fully meeting Trump's expectations for rate cuts.
Controversy Over Independence: Trump believes that the Federal Reserve should more directly align with the government's policy goals, especially by supporting economic growth through loose monetary policy. However, the Federal Reserve insists on independent decision-making and refuses to adjust policies due to political pressure, exacerbating the conflict between the two sides.

On April 17, 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Chicago Economic Club sparked heated discussions in the crypto market. Although he did not release any direct benefits such as interest rate cuts, his statements regarding cryptocurrency regulation sent positive signals—he clearly stated that there is room for adjustment in the regulatory policies for banks regarding cryptocurrencies, affirmed the trend of cryptocurrency mainstreaming, and emphasized the need to establish a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins. This statement conveys a policy intention to support industry innovation and development while maintaining financial security.
Banking regulation has shifted towards leniency.

After Experiencing a Market Value Surge to $20 Billion, the AI Agent Sector Quickly Retracted, but the Industry is Entering a New Phase: Infrastructure, Decentralized AI (DeAI), and Actual Applications Become the Core Driving Forces. In the Next Wave, Three Trends Are Worth Noting: One, From Bubble to Essence: Reconstruction of AI Agent Value
In the Fourth Quarter of Last Year, the AI Agent Sector Exploded with a 'Entertainment + Finance' Dual Engine, from Humorous Chatbots to Promising Wealth Trading Agents, to Investment DAOs (such as the '3,3' Mechanism), the Market Once Fell into Irrational Prosperity. Typical Cases Include:

Recently, the MEME market has stirred once again. Since mid-March, the price of Fartcoin has rebounded from the bottom, rising by as much as 349% in just one month, with its total market cap once approaching $985 million. Meanwhile, whale investors in the on-chain MEME sector have been active, pouring millions of dollars into Fartcoin, RFC, and other MEME tokens, driving up the market cap of related tokens.
Against this backdrop, on April 11th, the number of active addresses on the Solana chain surpassed 5.1 million, approaching the historical peak of January. This unusual movement in the MEME market raises the question of whether it signals a full return of the MEME bull market or merely a brief return of market funds in a dull market. PANews conducted an in-depth analysis of large holder addresses of recently significantly rising MEME tokens, attempting to uncover the truth behind.

1. Recently, a major security incident broke out in the blockchain field: the star project ZKsync in the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem encountered a serious security vulnerability, where the admin accounts of three key airdrop distribution contracts in its core smart contract were successfully compromised by unidentified attackers. The attackers exploited this vulnerability to illegally mint approximately 111 million ZK tokens, disrupting the economic order of the ZKsync ecosystem and impacting confidence in the entire cryptocurrency market. The project team and security team are currently responding urgently, fully investigating the source of the attack and assessing the damages.

A night of terror in the crypto world: The 'rollercoaster' collapse of the MANTRA (OM) token
In the early hours of April 14, the crypto community was once again swept by a sudden storm. The star project of the RWA sector, MANTRA (OM) token, experienced extreme fluctuations from cloud nine to the bottom within just a few minutes, leaving countless investors stunned and fearful.
While most people are still asleep, the price of the OM token plummeted like a kite with a broken string, sharply dropping from a high of $6 to the abyss near $0.5. In just a few hours, over $5.5 billion in market value evaporated, as if a sudden financial tsunami had swallowed countless dreams of wealth. This collapse not only caught investors off guard but also caused a stir within the crypto community.

In this cryptocurrency world that seems to be paved with gold but is actually fraught with undercurrents, you can easily experience what it means to 'fall from cloud nine to the depths.' Here, the fluctuations of numbers are faster than heartbeats, and the market reversals are quicker than flipping pages. One moment you might be cheering for the continuously rising numbers in your account, and the next moment you could be struck dizzy by a sudden crash, filled with confusion of 'What’s wrong with this world?' and panic of 'What should I do?'. The cryptocurrency world is such a magical place that can take you from heaven to hell in just a few minutes.

The cryptocurrency market is currently shrouded in a strong atmosphere of panic, with market sentiment indicators remaining low. According to Alternative data cited by BlockBeats on April 8, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index for that day dropped to 24 points (a slight decrease from the previous day's 23 points), and the market sentiment status is still marked as 'Extreme Fear'.

It should be noted that this panic index is set within a range of 0 to 100, and its comprehensive assessment system covers six core dimensions: market volatility accounts for 25%, trading activity accounts for 25%, social media sentiment heat accounts for 15%, market research data accounts for 15%, Bitcoin market share accounts for 10%, and Google search trend analysis accounts for 10%.

There are signs that the true identity information of Satoshi Nakamoto may have fallen into the hands of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and a crypto lawyer has filed a lawsuit determined to uncover this mystery.
Satoshi Nakamoto, as the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, has had his true identity remain a significant puzzle in the cryptocurrency field since Bitcoin's inception. Over the years, countless speculations and hypotheses have emerged, but the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto has never been confirmed. Recently, there have been reports that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security may have obtained information regarding Satoshi Nakamoto's identity, which has caused a stir in the cryptocurrency community.

On March 29, 2025, Vitalik published two blog posts in succession, from which we can glimpse his current thoughts and insights. It is worth noting that Vitalik does not seem to show excessive concern about the price fluctuations of Ethereum (ETH).

1. We should talk less about public goods funding and more about open-source funding.

https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2025/03/29/pubos.html
2. The year wheel model of culture and politics.
https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2025/03/29/treering.html
The original link comes from Jinse Finance.

At the beginning of 2024, the global stablecoin market exhibited rapid growth, successfully breaking through the $235 billion mark with an increase of 80.7%. In this market wave, USDT and USDC shone as two dazzling stars, maintaining a dominant market position with an 86% contribution to growth. However, a perplexing phenomenon has emerged: the $100 billion incremental capital settled on Ethereum and Tron has not driven the altcoin market to explode in sync as in previous cycles. Relevant data indicates that during this round of cycles, for every $1 increase in stablecoins, only $1.5 of altcoin market capitalization growth can be leveraged, representing a significant shrinkage of 82% compared to the previous bull market.

BlockBeats news, on April 8, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cryptocurrency special working group announced the agenda and list of panel members for its roundtable meeting on April 11, themed 'Dilemma: Tailoring Regulatory Measures for Cryptocurrency Trading.'

The roundtable meeting will be held at the headquarters of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from 1 AM to 5 AM Beijing time on April 12. The event will be open to the public and will be live-streamed on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's website.#加密货币 #美联储 #比特币

Every day, we analyze sentiments and opinions from various sources and summarize them into a simple number: the fear and greed index for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

Now---23, extreme fear, yesterday - fear, last week - fear,

1. The dangers of emotional decision-making
Greed during market uptrends (FOMO effect): When prices continue to rise, investors are prone to blindly chase higher prices due to 'fear of missing out' (FOMO), leading to buying at high levels.
Panic during market downturns: When prices plummet, investors may sell assets in panic, missing out on rebound opportunities.

1. Mainstream asset dynamics
Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a technical rebound, with a daily increase exceeding 5%, currently priced at $28,500. This rebound is mainly attributed to two catalysts:
Tether increased its BTC holdings by $700 million in the first quarter, with total holdings reaching $8 billion, accounting for 12.3% of its total reserves. The continuous accumulation of USDT is interpreted as a strategic optimism towards the long-term value of crypto assets, forming market confidence support.
The recovery of the US tech sector (Nasdaq up 1.8%) has boosted risk appetite, and the linkage effect between traditional finance and the crypto market has re-emerged.
2. On-chain hotspot tracking
BN ecosystem dual stars shine

As Ethereum's price dips to the $1,800 mark, the market is quietly brewing a wave of three transformations:

1. Staking Revolution: The total staking amount across the network has approached 27% of the circulating supply, which means that nearly a quarter of the funds in the crypto space are undergoing a paradigm shift from liquid speculation to value lockup. While retail investors are still questioning the PoS mechanism, institutional funds have strategically positioned themselves through liquid staking protocols like Lido and Rocket Pool. Behind this silent transfer of chips is a profound insight by actuaries into protocol economics—once the Shanghai upgrade fully unlocks withdrawals, staking derivatives will form a self-reinforcing yield flywheel.

The tokenization of U.S. Treasury Bonds is a milestone event in the digital transformation of traditional financial assets, reshaping the underlying logic of the crypto market. This process not only brings the trillion-dollar treasury market onto the blockchain track but also promotes the deep integration of traditional finance and decentralized finance (DeFi). Based on current technological evolution and policy trends, investors can focus on the following four major areas while establishing a dynamic risk management framework.
1. Blockchain infrastructure upgrade track
Tokenization of government bonds imposes higher requirements on the underlying architecture, requiring support for high-frequency trading, cross-chain interoperability, and compliant settlement. Technological evolution will present three major directions:

1. Market Status: Rapid growth driven by legalization.
Legalization Milestone
As of June 1, 2023, trading cryptocurrencies in Hong Kong has officially been legalized, with the Securities and Futures Commission implementing a licensing system for virtual asset service providers (VASP), allowing licensed platforms to offer services for mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum to retail clients.
Key Data: The first batch of 6 Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs will be listed in April 2024, with the first-day subscription scale reaching USD 248 million, of which the Huaxia Bitcoin ETF absorbed HKD 950 million, becoming the largest virtual asset ETF by market value in Hong Kong.

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I. Current state of the cryptocurrency market: Structural transformation under three driving forces
Sovereign capital reconstructs market logic
Shift in US strategy: The Trump administration included Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve (45% share), directly pushing its market value close to $2 trillion. This decision upgraded cryptocurrency from a 'speculative tool' to a core asset in the 'digital gold' narrative, with institutions increasing holdings through ETFs to form a long-term value anchor.

Global regulatory divergence: The EU enforces compliance (MiCA regulations), China promotes e-CNY squeezing private cryptocurrencies, and Russia allows cross-border settlements, forming a triangular pattern of 'US-led innovation, balanced regulation in Central Europe, and emerging economies utilizing tools.'