柴火大亨跟牛市的故事

On September 10, the Financial Times reported that Musk could face a summons from the UK Parliament over his role at Platform X.

The social media giant is in the spotlight of MPs who are pushing for the role of chair of a key Commons committee.

The new generation of iPhone still includes four models, with adjusted colors, narrower borders, a new "photo button", 8GB of memory as standard, and equipped with A18/A18 Pro chips, and the "highlight" is still in Apple's AI function......
The countdown to Apple’s annual fall conference has begun. The theme of this conference is “glowtime”. What highlights of the iPhone 16 and other new products are worth looking forward to?
At 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on Tuesday, Apple will hold a new product launch event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California, which will be broadcast live on Apple's website and YouTube.

#BTC走势分析 Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the Fed's rate cut rhythm this year is: 25bp+25bp+25bp. Rate cut trading has been largely preempted, and there may be a rebound risk in the short term, but the reversal point may still need to be observed.
(I) Rate cuts and rate cut trading: Rate cut trading precedes the rate cut cycle, and the "reversal" of trading needs to focus on the Fed's policy stance
Reviewing the 13 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve since the 1970s, the 10-year US Treasury bond interest rate tends to decline. Before the rate cut, the downward slope of the US Treasury bond interest rate was larger, and after the rate cut, the downward slope slowed down. When the rate cut was implemented, the US Treasury bond interest rate may rebound in the short term due to the interference of trading factors such as the "preemptive run" of the rate cut transaction and the increase in short net positions, and the rebound of the long-term US Treasury bond interest rate may be greater.

This does not mean that the industry will not grow strongly. The next wave of beneficiaries may come from new products and services created based on AI-based models. Goldman Sachs reported that the fundamentals of the technology industry are strong, but the concentration risk is high. It is recommended to seek diversified investments and not miss out on growth opportunities driven by AI technology in other industries.
After more than a year, the ChatGPT craze sparked by OpenAI seems to be cooling down rapidly, and the website's monthly traffic data seems to reflect this.


In a report released Thursday, Peter Oppenheimer, head of macro research and chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research in Europe, cited the latest data from the analysis agency Similarweb, showing that the total monthly visits to ChatGPT websites dropped sharply from spring to mid-summer. The report wrote:

In August, the U.S. labor market continued to weaken and employment fell short of expectations. Williams said the Fed had made "significant progress" toward its goals of maintaining price stability and achieving maximum employment, and it was appropriate to lower the federal funds rate now. Market expectations have increased for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this month, but Williams did not express any intention to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this month.
A rate cut this month is almost certain, but how much is still controversial. Market expectations for a sharp 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month have increased.
In August, the U.S. labor market continued to weaken, and employment fell short of expectations. On September 6, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report showing that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 in August, less than the expected 165,000. The July data was revised down significantly from 114,000 to 89,000.

The August non-farm payrolls report will not only be the final word on the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision, but will also provide key clues as to whether the U.S. is heading for a recession.
The August non-farm payrolls report to be released tonight may be one of the most important US non-farm reports in years. This report will not only "finalize" the Fed's September interest rate decision, but also provide key clues as to whether the world's largest economy is entering a recession.
At 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August non-farm report. According to the consensus expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg:
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 165,000 in August, a sharp rebound from 114,000 in July.

Last week, there were rumors that the office of former US President Trump's campaign team in West Palm Beach, Florida, was bugged. After receiving the alarm, local police arrived at the scene and closed the office for a search. Eventually, they found a plastic prank device that was sold online for $13.97.
According to a report by The New York Times on September 3, there were rumors last week that a bug was installed in the office of former US President Trump's campaign team in West Palm Beach, Florida. After receiving the alarm, the local police arrived at the scene and closed the office for a search. In the end, a plastic prank device was found, which was sold online for $13.97.

Put options increased significantly, with traders betting on a surge in U.S. bond yields
On September 5, the well-known financial blog ZeroHedge published an article stating that despite the poor performance of the JOLTS employment report, the market seemed to have misjudged its importance, mistakenly equating a lagging employment report with the latest data to be released. The JOLTS report usually lags behind the non-farm payrolls data by one month, and with the frequent revisions to the data recently, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics may once again create a "stronger labor market" by adjusting the data. In any case, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September to meet the political need to show a "strong economy" two months before the election.

JOLTS job openings unexpectedly weakened to the lowest level since early 2021, and expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September jumped to 50%. Citi said that if Friday's non-farm payrolls report confirms that the labor market is deteriorating, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and another 50 basis points in November.
The ratio of job openings to unemployed persons fell to 1.1:1, down from the pre-pandemic ratio of 1.2:1 and more similar to job market conditions in 2018.
The hiring rate rose slightly to 3.5% from 3.3%, but it is still low and comparable to 2014. Hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector was particularly sluggish, rebounding to 5.5% from an unusually low 4.5% in June. Government hiring fell sharply, from 1.7% in March to 1.4% in July.

The Bank of Canada said inflation pressures continue to ease, which is a reason to continue to cut interest rates. However, Macklem warned of the risks to future inflation, saying that as base effects fade, Canada's inflation may rise later this year, and the upward force of inflation may be stronger than expected.
On Wednesday, September 4, the Bank of Canada announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, in line with market expectations. This is the third consecutive interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. After this rate cut, the latest policy rate is 4.25%, compared with 4.5% in August.
In June this year, Canada became the first G7 country to cut interest rates, starting an easing cycle. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, from 5% to 4.75%, in line with market expectations. Since then, the European Central Bank has also chosen to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to join the interest rate cut in September.