BuddyKing

Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has broken below a key high‑timeframe support range the same zone that formed the early‑April bottom. As I mentioned in my recent updates, that breakdown was my signal to hedge 50% of my spot exposure to reduce short‑term downside risk. That decision continues to serve its purpose.

Where We Are Now
Price is now approaching a major high‑timeframe support range one that acted as strong resistance throughout 2024 and aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci POI. This confluence makes it a potential bounce zone where a local bottom could form.
However, I’m not rushing to unwind hedges just yet.
Before scaling out, I want to see clear evidence of strength, such as:
- A durable bounce off this high‑timeframe support
- A reclaim of the previously lost support range that defined the early‑April bottoming structure
Until those conditions are met, patience remains the priority.
Why the Current Strategy Still Makes Sense
For weeks, I emphasized that as long as BTC struggled to reclaim the $92K high‑timeframe support range, the best approach was:
- Maintain a diversified portfolio across multiple sectors
- Keep a moderate cash allocation
- Hedge spot exposure if a breakdown occurred
This conservative framework allowed us to participate in upside while preserving a safety net in case of a structural failure—exactly what we’re seeing now.
My Strategy Going Forward
I’m keeping things simple and disciplined:
- No changes to allocations for now
- Maintain exposure to defensive sectors
- Keep hedges active
- Begin scaling out of hedges only if BTC confirms a bottom in the $66K–$68K range
This approach allows defensive positions to offset weakness in risk assets, while hedging continues to reduce downside volatility.
The Real Question Isn’t “Are We in a Bear Market?”

Whether this is a bear market or a deep correction is less important than the bigger picture:
How do we protect the profits accumulated throughout the bull cycle?
For the last two years, the focus was on maximizing gains. Over the last few months, my focus has shifted toward capital preservation.
That’s why I’ve consistently emphasized:
- Diversification
- Avoiding leverage
- Maintaining a conservative, risk‑aware outlook
This environment rewards discipline, not aggression.

By February 2026, the global economy still feels fragile. Inflation hasn’t fully gone away, government debt keeps growing, and political tensions remain high. In times like this, investors look for assets that don’t depend too much on governments or policies. That’s why gold and Bitcoin continue to matter.

Gold: Stability in Uncertain Times
Gold is trading close to $4,950 per ounce, and its strength isn’t a surprise. When confidence in currencies and governments weakens, gold usually benefits.
Central banks are buying more gold, which says a lot. These are the same institutions that control money, yet they are choosing to hold gold instead. That shows how cautious the world has become.
With a market value above $34 trillion, gold stands far above stocks and other assets. While equities move up and down with earnings and news, gold moves with long-term trust in the financial system.
Over the past 20 years, gold has steadily climbed, especially during crises. In 2026, it’s less about quick profits and more about protecting wealth.

Bitcoin: A Different Kind of Hedge
Bitcoin is trading around $75,500 after recent price swings. Volatility is still part of the story, but that hasn’t changed its long-term direction. with a market cap near $1.5 trillion, $BTC is much smaller than gold, but it has grown fast for a young asset. Its value comes from its design: limited supply, no central control, and global access.

Bitcoin reacts quickly to news and regulation, which makes it risky in the short term. But over time, adoption by institutions and everyday users has made it harder to ignore.

Gold vs Bitcoin
Gold and Bitcoin are not the same, and they don’t solve the same problem.
Gold protects against inflation and economic stress. Bitcoin protects against loss of trust in financial systems.
$XAU is steady and slow. Bitcoin is fast and unpredictable.
That’s why many investors now hold both. Gold adds stability, while Bitcoin adds growth potential.
Looking Ahead
If global risks increase, gold could continue moving higher, even if slowly. Bitcoin could see bigger moves, especially if regulation becomes clearer and adoption grows but price swings will remain.

In 2026, the real lesson isn’t choosing one over the other. It’s understanding why each exists and how they fit together in a world that feels less certain every year.

@Vanarchain
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$BTC recently broke out of an expanding wedge pattern a move that initially looked bullish only to sharply reverse and crash back toward recent lows. For many traders, this kind of price action triggers fear, confusion, and rushed decisions.but moments like this are exactly when patience matters most.

What Just Happened in the Market
The recent drop wasn’t random. Bitcoin swept the equal lows from December 1st and December 18th, areas where a large amount of stop-loss liquidity was resting. Markets often move aggressively into these zones, not because trend has changed immediately, but because liquidity needs to be taken before the next phase begins.

In simple terms:
price moved where traders were most vulnerable.because of this, a short-term stabilization or bounce toward the $87,000 area is a very realistic outcome. That move would not signal strength it would simply reflect the market rebalancing after grabbing liquidity.

The Bigger Picture Still Controls Direction
While short-term bounces can happen, they don’t override the broader trend.
On higher timeframes, Bitcoin remains under bearish pressure. Momentum has weakened, volatility is expanding, and price is still trading near what appears to be the upper range of this market cycle. Historically, conditions like this favor distribution, not sustained upside.
That’s why, after any potential relief bounce, a deeper move toward $75,000 remains a high-probability scenario.
This distinction is critical for traders:
Lower timeframes create noise
Higher timeframes define trend
Ignoring that difference is how traders get trapped.

Could This Be a Fakeout?

There is always an alternative scenario.
Bitcoin has now swept equal lows, and $ETH continues to hover near its three major support zones. In isolation, this could support a fake breakdown and recovery.
However, given the current macro environment, declining risk appetite, and overall market structure, this bullish outcome appears less likely at this stage. The market is behaving more like a transition into a bear phase than a reset for continuation.
My Approach as a Trader
I’ve learned often the hard way that trading panic rarely ends well. Entering positions during emotional volatility usually means poor risk-to-reward and unclear invalidation.
For that reason, I’m choosing to wait.
I want to see how price behaves after today’s close, how liquidity settles, and whether the market confirms stabilization or continuation. If a trade sets up with clear structure and risk defined, I’ll act. If not, I’ll stay sidelined.
Waiting is not inactivity.
It’s risk management.
A Final Reminder for Traders
Not every crash is an opportunity.
Not every bounce is bullish.
And you don’t need to trade every move to be successful.
The market will always offer another setup but capital, once lost, is much harder to recover.
Sometimes the best trade is simply protecting your position and letting the market show its intent.
#USIranStandoff