VanEck's application is pending at the SEC. If approved: • Institutional inflow may increase • Liquidity will rise • Price target $40+? • Sets a precedent for altcoin ETFs
If the ETF is approved, the main target is $40+
In case of rejection or postponement, it may pull back to $19-20.
Today is report day for both the FED and major tech stocks (Nvidia & Tesla).
Volatility is inevitable.
🔹 Either ATH or 2900! 🔹 Ethereum will eventually fill the 2900 GAP. 🔹 If there is no closing above 3900 and Powell speaks hawkishly, our course could be 2900.
- The rising trend from below (yellow dashed line) has worked as a clear and strong support.
- The reactions from this trend line have led to a sharp upward break in the price.
- The consolidation area formed within the orange circle is characterized as an accumulation zone.
- The price has increased by approximately 55% with the rally starting from the 2.20 USDT level, rising to levels around 3.41 USDT.
This level also overlaps with past horizontal resistance → an important selling pressure area.
Possible Correction Scenario:
- As shown on the chart, there is a potential for the price to enter a correction from the 3.41 levels and pull back to the 2.2201 USDT area.
- This level overlaps with both the horizontal support area (green box) and the rising trend line below → double support.
Main Scenario (Correction Expectation):
If the price cannot exceed the 3.41 level in the short term, a strong correction towards the 2.22 USDT levels can be expected.
This movement indicates a decrease of approximately 35%.
A reassessment for long positions can be made in this area.
Alternative Scenario (Ongoing Rally): If it stays above the 3.41 level and a substantial closing occurs, the new target could be in the range of 3.80 – 4.00 USDT.
The U.S. House of Representatives has officially adopted the crypto bill CLARITY.
What is the CLARITY Crypto Act? It is a proposal aimed at providing legal clarity for digital assets in the U.S.
🔹 Tokens may initially be considered securities 🔹 However, if they decentralize within 3 years, this status will be lifted 🔹 Reduces SEC pressure, encourages innovation
Bitcoin spot ETFs trade on traditional exchanges in the US (for example, NYSE, Nasdaq). These exchanges:
Operate during the week, closed on weekends.
However, since the Bitcoin spot price trades 24/7, if significant movement occurs over the weekend, when the ETFs open on Monday, this difference is seen as a "gap."
Meaning of Gaps: Technical analysts argue that these gaps tend to close. That is, the price usually returns to the point where the gap started.
Therefore:
🟠If there is an upward gap → The price may pull back at some point and fill that gap.
🟠If there is a downward gap → The price may tend to rise to fill the gap.
In the Short Term: The price is at the level of 122,145.
If a profit realization occurs in this area:
The first target may be 115,210 (gap closure).
This point can also be seen as an “opportunity for long.”
In the Medium-Long Term: If a macro selling wave begins (for example, if funds flow into ETFs slows down, interest rate hikes, etc.):
The old gap at the level of 92,300 may be a target.
This is a much deeper correction scenario.
To summarize:
Sell positions can be tested from the 122K level, with a target around 115.2K (stop-loss above 124K).
After gaps close, buying opportunities can be sought during pullbacks.