BtcFerit

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BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, AVAX, DOGE and HYPERLIQUID! Weekly Crypto Analysis (Is a Rise Coming?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-24rEdfIJwc

WHY IS THE HORMUZ STRAIT IMPORTANT?

Approximately 20% of the oil transported by sea worldwide passes through here.

15-20 million barrels of oil are distributed worldwide through this strait daily.

It is the lifeline of exports for Gulf countries, primarily Iran and Saudi Arabia.

MARKET IMPACTS

1. Sharp Increase in Oil Prices

Brent and WTI oil prices can quickly rise by 10-30%.

With the increase in energy costs, inflationary pressures rise globally.

2. Panic Sales in Stock Markets

Sectors that are particularly energy-dependent (aviation, transportation, industry) will drop sharply.

Due to global uncertainty, there will be an exit from risky assets.

3. Shift to Gold and Safe Havens

Demand for safe havens like gold, silver, Swiss Franc, and US bonds increases.

IMPACT ON BITCOIN

Scenario 1: Wave of Risk Aversion (Short-term Decline)
Initially, a need for liquidity arises in an environment of uncertainty and panic.

Investors may sell volatile assets like Bitcoin to generate cash.

In this case, the #Bitcoin price may decline in the short term.

Scenario 2: Inflation and Search for Alternative Systems (Medium-Long Term Increase)

The wave of inflation triggered by the oil shock reduces trust in fiat currencies.

The increase in global tensions may highlight Bitcoin's “digital gold” feature.

Especially in developing countries, individuals may turn to Bitcoin against capital flight.

SUMMARY👇

💥 20% of the world’s oil passes through this strait.

📈 Oil = increases by 30%
📉 Stock Markets = Sharp decline
🏃‍♂️ Flight to safe havens (Gold, Dollar, Bonds)

Bitcoin = Drops in the initial shock, then may shine with its digital gold role.

Geopolitical risks = New financial realities.

https://youtube.com/live/TwJ4aUhM7IM?feature=share

XAU (GOLD) What Happens?

Geopolitical crises, such as the Iran-Israel war, especially when occurring in the Middle East, usually have an upward effect on gold prices.

Previously:

1. US-Iran Tension (2020 - the assassination of Qasem Soleimani)

Gold rose by more than 4% within a week.

2. Israel-Gaza Wars (2021, 2023)

Short-term spikes in gold prices were observed.

3. April 2024 - After Iran's attack on Israel

Gold surpassed 2400 $ , reaching an all-time high.

When Does It Drop?

If the war is short-lived and does not escalate to major economies, although the initial reaction may be upward, there could be a pullback due to profit-taking later.

If signals of peace emerge or a diplomatic solution comes to the forefront, the gold price may drop.

Start of war 📈 Rise
Threat to energy supply 📈 Rise
Weakening of the dollar 📈 Rise
Peace / diplomacy 📉 Drop
Short-term conflict 📉 Correction

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Markets close on Friday night, the US launches an operation against Iran.

At that time, every peak is suitable for shorting.

DOGE 1D ANALYSIS

TECHNICAL LEVELS

🔻 SUPPORTS:
0.17005: Currently testing horizontal support (important threshold area).

0.14292 – 0.14282: Potential downside target. Identified as the main bounce point on the chart.

🔺 RESISTANCES:
Around 0.20: Important short-term resistance.

0.25758: Previous peak level and resistance area.

0.29341: Looks like a Fibonacci or horizontal resistance level.

0.35327: Main target area (marked as "major target" on the chart).

FORMATIONS and STRUCTURES

🔸 Ascending Trend Line (About to Break):
The ascending trend support line shown with a yellow dashed line is being tested.

If it breaks, there is potential for a drop to 0.14292.

🔸 Potential "Higher Low" Scenario:
If the price creates a new low above the March-April bottom, this could be a higher low (bullish structure).

In this case, the market may transition back to a bullish structure.

PROBABILITY SCENARIOS

📉 1. Bear Scenario (Downward Break):
If the 0.17 support breaks → a drop is expected down to 0.14292.

An immediate reaction may occur after "liquidity gathering / drop trap" in this area.

📈 2. Bull Scenario (Bounce and Trend Reversal):
Strong upward reversal from 0.14292 → if broken at 0.20, the targets can be 0.25758, then 0.29341 and 0.35327.

Such rapid increases usually occur with short squeeze + momentum traders' purchases.

THINGS TO NOTE

This scenario only works if supported by volume. Breakouts without volume can be fake-outs.

The overall trend of BTC and ETH directly affects DOGE. You should also follow them in parallel.

Especially around 0.14, a "stop hunt" may occur. Pay attention to this area in positions.

LIVE BITCOIN TRANSACTIONS AND LIQUIDATIONS

https://www.youtube.com/live/J-DFb_9thOM?si=oe3b2jwQLBFZ61_g

How will the Iran-Israel war affect gold prices?

A war between these two regional powers would shake not only the Middle East but also global financial markets.

The first effect can be seen in gold prices. Why?

🛡️ Gold = Safe Haven

Throughout history, during geopolitical crises, investors move away from risky assets and turn to gold.

A scenario like an Iran-Israel war increases global uncertainty → investors seek refuge in gold → prices rise rapidly.

⛽ Oil & Inflation Impact

If Iran enters into conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is put at risk → oil supply faces difficulties → prices surge → global inflationary pressure increases.

High inflation expectations increase demand for gold. Gold = protection against inflation.

💵 Dollar & Interest Balance

A war environment may make the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) more cautious.

If interest rates do not rise, non-yielding gold becomes attractive.

If the dollar weakens, this also supports gold prices.

What Does History Tell Us?

1979 Iranian Revolution: Gold +120% (in 12 months)

1990 Gulf Crisis: Gold +10%

2020 Soleimani Tensions: Gold +4% (in 2 days)

📊 War can cause sudden jumps in gold prices.

Conclusion:

The possibility of an Iran-Israel war is a strong catalyst for gold prices:

✅ Increase in geopolitical risk
✅ Oil and energy shocks
✅ Inflation expectations
✅ Search for a safe haven

All of these push gold upwards.

Gold analysis on my Telegram channel, the link is in the profile.

Pahlavi will become the President of Iran.

🚨

The Israeli Air Force conducted an airstrike against Iran.

Which branch will they tweet ''They slaughtered the bulls'' from?

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Technical Details:
🔸 Rising Trend Support (Broken):

The rising trend line (yellow dashed line) that the price has formed since March has recently been broken downwards.

This breakdown could be a precursor to a trend change.

🔸 Retest Level (1.2900 USDT):

The chart indicates that after the trend is broken, the price may retest the old support (new resistance) before continuing to decline.

This level can be considered an ideal entry point for short positions.

🔸 Potential Decline Target:

The target price is approximately 0.3445 USDT, which represents a decline of about 73.58% from the current level.

This level corresponds to the previous horizontal support area and could be an important psychological level.

Possible Scenario:
The price recovers to the 1.2900 level.

If this level acts as resistance and is rejected,

the downward momentum could accelerate towards a drop to the 0.3445 level.

Strategic Notes:
For those considering short positions: entry around the 1.2900 level, stop-loss above the trend line or at the last peak (around 1.60).

For those considering long positions: caution is advised as the trend has broken. A drop to around 0.3445, which is a support area for long-term buying, can be anticipated.

Warning:
This scenario is a prediction and does not guarantee certainty. Price movements may vary according to news flows, overall market conditions, and liquidity. Risk management must be implemented.

Let's take a look at what could happen on the Hyperliquid Liquidation Map.

There are large long positions between 111k and 102k. (High leverage trades over 1M)

The largest of these and nearly 60% of total whale transactions are liquidation clusters in the 106k–102k range.

If the price drops to this area, long positions will be liquidated in a chain reaction.

A significant portion of short positions is located in the regions above 118k and 130k.

This chart shows that the market is ready and waiting for liquidity hunters. Just keep in mind that the path to blowing up LONGs is closer...

More information and how to trade in this situation 👇

https://t.co/9iHe9ZgJjF

#bitcoin #btc

BTC/USDT Technical Analysis – 1D

The trend is strong, but signs of fragility are increasing...

🔹 Price Action Summary:
BTC tested the resistance of 108.468$ with a sharp rise at the beginning of May.

It was rejected at this level and the price is currently consolidating around 107.500$ .

In daily candles, upward momentum is weakening. If RSI and volume analyses do not accompany this, such regions may serve as warnings before a breakout.

⚠️ Possible Downward Scenarios:
1. Dropping below 107.006$ (Beginning of Weakness)
This level is a short-term support and a previous high-volume trading area.

If it breaks below, a rapid drop to $103.194 may be observed due to stop-loss triggers.

2. Loss of 103.194$ (Trend Weakens)
This level is both structural support and a previous consolidation area.

A daily close below this: may signal the beginning of a downward trend.

Target: $94.569

3. Testing 94.569$ and 84.569$ (Major Support Test)
These may be buying zones for medium-term investors.

However, a drop to these levels may indicate that the market has entered a controlled liquidation process by major players.

4. 76.233$ (Worst Case Scenario – Including Macro Risks)
If a catalyst is needed such as macro negative news flow, ETF cancellation, regulation, or global crisis, this area could be a structural bottom.

To summarize:

The upward trend has not been broken, but each new high is coming with weaker momentum.

Volume divergence, RSI divergence, and the possibility of liquidity hunting should be considered.

If we see closures below 107K, positions should be protected, and a hedge or gradual selling strategy should be implemented.

OF COURSE, THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE 💚

🐋 A Famous Whale Just Opened a $1 Billion Short Position on 107,077 BTC — What Does This Mean for the Market?

🔻 1. Short-Term FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt)
Market Reaction: When news like this spreads, it often triggers panic among retail investors.

Selling Pressure: Fear-driven selling and liquidation of overleveraged long positions could push the price down sharply.

🔄 2. Possibility of a Short Squeeze
If the price doesn’t drop and instead goes up:
The whale might be forced to close their short position.
This could trigger a short squeeze — where short-sellers buy back to cover, fueling a rapid price increase.

🤔 3. Whale’s Intention: Hedge or Manipulation?

It could be a hedge: Maybe the whale holds a large BTC position and is just protecting downside risk.

Or manipulation: The whale might be trying to push the price down to accumulate more at lower levels.
📊 Watch On-Chain and Technical Indicators

Track liquidity zones, support/resistance levels, open interest, and funding rates.

These help determine if the market truly follows the whale or if it’s a decoy move.
TL;DR

✅ Short-term: Likely bearish sentiment and fear.
⚠️ Mid-term: Risk of a powerful short squeeze.
📉 or 📈: The outcome depends on how the market digests this move.