Investment must strictly adhere to the boundaries of cognition:
Act decisively within the circle of competence, and when beyond understanding, either cautiously avoid or seek knowledge with an empty cup. Avoid forcibly confronting cognitive blind spots, as blindly over-investing often harbors risks.
This principle permeates fields such as finance and industry, fundamentally serving as an eternal interpretation of "reverence for the market."
Ethereum ($ETH) shows signs of breakthrough on the chart. If seeking a higher certainty entry point, one can wait for a pullback opportunity; if looking for aggressive actions, one can chase the upward trend after the 15-minute candlestick closes above the $1532 area.
1. Fluctuations in Trade Relations: On Wednesday afternoon, Eastern Time, Trump announced a suspension of the full implementation of new tariffs on most countries, reducing tariffs to 10% for the majority of countries within 90 days, effective immediately. However, tariffs on China will be raised to 125%. Following this news, U.S. stocks surged significantly during the session, with all three major indices closing sharply higher. The Asia-Pacific stock markets also opened strongly on April 10th. According to a report from the U.S. 'War Zone' website on April 9th, the Chief of Naval Operations announced that the U.S. military will soon conduct large-scale joint operations in the Pacific. The trade war and military actions are proceeding in tandem, and future developments need to be closely monitored.
2. Cryptocurrency Updates - Voting Results for New Tokens: The voting event for new tokens has concluded, and $UXLINK received the highest number of votes among many participating tokens, making it highly likely to be listed; otherwise, the voting would lose its significance.
- Second Round of Token Removal Voting Begins: The process for the second round of token removal voting has started, with $GPS being listed for two consecutive periods, making it likely to be removed. Additionally, tokens like $FTT and $BSW are also on the list, with their former glory seemingly lost, leading to the lament that many projects in the crypto space, aside from Bitcoin, appear to be scams.
- New Token Listings and Airdrops: Babylon is set to be listed on Binance, with users holding $BNB between March 7th and 13th eligible for an airdrop, and it will officially launch at 6 PM on April 10th.
- Market Reaction to the SOL Chain: After the $RFC incident, the SOL chain has shown signs of recovery, and market participants are embarking on a new journey to seek potential projects (Golden Dog).
Market bull and bear cycles, economic laws repeat themselves.
This cycle has brought five major growths: 1. Completely abandon leveraged operations 2. Eliminate borrowed funds entering the market 3. Strictly adhere to investment targets within capability 4. Insist on the principle of being bearish without shorting 5. Focus on independent investment rhythm
Deeply understand the investment wisdom of Buffett and Munger — "slow is fast", good investment habits will ultimately yield continuous benefits.
Bitcoin (BTC) encountered resistance at $82,600 (EMA20 moving average) in yesterday's daily line rebound and has not yet reclaimed this level as of now. After adjusting technical indicators, $84,000 has become a key turning point—only with a daily closing price above this level can the bearish pattern be reversed. At higher levels, $90,000 faces pressure from a weekly trend line, forming a double resistance zone.
Considering the market breathing window brought by the 90-day tariff negotiation buffer period, there is a significant possibility that BTC will reclaim $84,000 and challenge $90,000 in the future. Strategically, it is recommended to build long positions on dips and wait to set up short positions as the price approaches the strong resistance at $90,000.
Despite last night's short squeeze of 600 million, the current long-short ratio shows that 52% of people are still shorting, indicating that more people believe this is just a simple rebound and are not optimistic about Bitcoin's future.
The price of Bitcoin is continuing to plummet significantly. Is this a second bottom? Many investors are eagerly awaiting a further decline in price, hoping for new lows to appear. However, the so-called 'bottom' that everyone is waiting for may either never materialize or, once it does, the actual low could be much lower than expected.
Given this situation, I have decided to go long directly. With the current price in the range of 76200 - 76000, I will first establish a primary position. The additional buy point is set at 75200, and I will strictly set a stop loss—bold moves! The initial target looks toward a rebound to the range of 78500 - 79800.
1. How will the policies related to Trump be adjusted going forward? Will they gradually ease or remain tough? In response to these policies, will China adopt a resolute stance of confrontation, or is there a possibility of resolving issues through negotiation?
2. If the China-U.S. trade war enters phase 2.0, what significant changes will occur in the direction of market capital flows? Will these changes be clearly manifested, bringing new variables to the economic trend?
3. Once signs of economic recession appear, how forcefully will the Federal Reserve intervene to rescue the market? To what extent will large-scale economic stimulus plans affect market trends and the process of economic recovery?
4. At what price level will Bitcoin (BTC) show strong, large-scale support? When will there be a rapid and powerful rebound after a significant drop, providing investors with clear signals of a market bottom?
5. On April 21, the nostalgic version of "Crossfire" will soon be launched. In what new form will this game, which carries the youthful memories of many players, return, and what waves will it create in the gaming market?
Daily Chart: 1) The daily chart structure is still downward, with lower lows being formed. 2) BTC currently plundered 76 after a rebound, for this rebound in the short term, first look at the D1 bearish order block test, if rejected, continue to look down. 3) If the D1 bearish order block is broken, then pay attention to the range—H test.
4) For regular investment and long-term players, I still believe that investing in large amounts below 80k is advisable.
Hourly Chart 1) Last night there was indeed buying volume. I took a quick look, from the 5th to the 7th, BTC sold 1.2 billion, and on the night of the 6th to the 7th, it dumped around 700 million, then last night bought around 300 to 400 million. 2) BTC is currently highly controlled, still experiencing a plundering and volatile market. Here it is still pushing for a rebound, but the rebound first needs to consider the bearish order block test above. This is also the intraday liquidation position.
3) Here chasing the rise is unrealistic, for me, I am still paying attention to the liquidation of short positions near 82, after which a rejection of distribution presents a short opportunity. 4) If it comes down, first look for buying opportunities near 75.
Market bull and bear cycles, economic development rises and falls. In this cycle, I have deeply summarized and practiced the following investment principles:
1. Completely abandon leveraged trading and avoid high-risk operations. 2. Invest only with my own funds, eliminating potential crises brought by borrowed investments. 3. Choose investment targets only in areas I am familiar with and confident in. 4. Even when bearish on the market, do not easily participate in short selling. 5. Always adhere to my own investment rhythm and not blindly follow trends.
I increasingly understand the essence of Buffett and Munger's investment philosophy - "slow is fast." Cultivating good investment habits will benefit me in the long run.
Trump's determination to launch a tariff war is firmer than expected. His tough measures aim to secure maximum benefits for the United States in subsequent trade negotiations, but have triggered a significant decline in global stock markets and the cryptocurrency market.
From the market perspective, I had previously anticipated that Bitcoin would break below the 80,000 - 90,000 fluctuation range, moving downward toward the key support level of 73,000 USD. Moving forward, we need to focus on this support level. Based on the daily trend, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will find temporary support here. At that time, we will further analyze and predict the subsequent market direction based on the strength of the rebound.
Looking at the history of the cryptocurrency market, every crash hides opportunities for wealth. These crashes are often triggered by significant internal and external events:
In 2017, the "9・4" domestic cleanup action was launched; In 2018, the FT platform collapsed; In 2020, the global stock market circuit breaker triggered the "3・12" crisis in the crypto market; In 2021, domestic prohibition of virtual currency-related businesses; In May 2022, the LUNA coin crashed, and in November, the FTX exchange went bankrupt; In 2023, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched a comprehensive crackdown on the crypto industry, and Binance founder CZ was sentenced; In April 2025, a tariff war broke out.
Before these crises erupted, the market was generally already in a downward channel. When the events occurred, panic spread rapidly, accelerating the market decline. After each crisis, mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin often experience a secondary or even tertiary bottoming out, but they do not break below the previous lows, usually completing the bottoming process within 1 to 3 months, followed by a new round of strong upward momentum, with highs continuously refreshed, and many altcoins achieving astonishing gains.
Current market operation suggestions: If you are already in a position, hold core assets and do not panic, avoid over-focusing on market conditions, and go out to relax. For those who have formulated a regular investment plan, stick to investing more during significant drops and less during minor dips, and strictly follow the plan.
From the current market conditions and external environment, the possibility of a significant market movement is relatively low. Unless there are continuous major positive news from the United States, everyone should remain cautious in their operations, observing more and acting less. It may also be worth considering shorting when prices are at a high level.
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a pullback mode in the minor market. Friends who want to go long can enter in the range of 82000 - 82500. Everyone should prepare in advance for going long.
The trend of Bitcoin is obvious; it's about to take off. As long as it breaks 90,000 this year, it will rise above 120,000 afterwards, a sure bull market
I. Daily Chart 1) The daily chart is currently in a chaotic fluctuation, where a converging triangle is forming. The tariff announcement will be made at 4 AM tomorrow, net waiting for a directional choice. 2) For the liquidity below, first look at 811 for liquidity grabbing, then at 765. Above, first watch 87; if it breaks and stabilizes above the range—H 875, there is a probability of continuing to test 90 upward.
II. Hourly Chart 1) Look at the yellow range; this is the current fluctuation zone. 2) After liquidity grabbing at the bottom of the range, it moved upward, causing H1 results to be disrupted and is currently in an upward fluctuation. 3) Last night after testing the range—H and being rejected downward, it retraced to the range—Eq. If there had been no spike down last night, this would have been a buying opportunity; however, due to the spike, it's best to watch H1 for bullish order block. 4) Summary: Currently, the market is really in a situation where both directions are possible, waiting for news to provide further momentum. The hourly level is still in an upward fluctuation; if it maintains the Eq position, there is a probability of continuing upward to grab range—H.
The bull market cycle for Bitcoin is about to start, the target of 200,000 remains unchanged this year, and it is expected to rise above 100,000 in the first half of the year