加密刘妙手
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2.2 Years
公众号:加密刘妙手
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The price of Bitcoin will anchor your level in this real-world game. Now and in the future, Bitcoin will soon be a symbol of social status. In the future, ten coins can be called a
The rain is about to come and ten coins can be called the future. 128 days ago, I published a video talking about the Bitcoin halving, predicting that the price of the currency will rise to US$55,000 after the halving. That day was April 17, 2020, and Bitcoin’s closing price was $7,125. A few years have passed, and the halving will happen again soon. To be precise, it will happen at some point in April or May 2024. This is the fourth halving in the history of Bitcoin, and it is also the last chance for ordinary investors. It is like the entrance of an ancient city wall under the setting sun, leaving only a crack as thick as a thumb. When this door closes, the last chance to get on the bus disappears. Xiao Feng's biggest regret at that time was that he could not save A'Zhu, "I am a Khitan, how can I have great ambitions?" The golden bottle fell into the well, and there was no turning back. My biggest regret is that I have been focusing on starting a business for the past ten years, but before I have accumulated enough coins, the game is about to end. This is also a fate. How to define scarcity? An Arab scholar, Saefdeen Amos, wrote a book called "Bitcoin Standard" in 18 years. In this book, he talked about a "stock-production" model , simply put, is the relationship between inventory and annual output. When we say inventory, we are counting the total quantity of an item. Annual output is the total amount of this commodity produced in a year. Dividing the two, we have a ratio called SF. In the picture, you can see that the SF of gold is 62 and that of silver is 22. What does this mean? That is to say, it would take you 62 years to produce the same amount of gold as now, 22 years for silver, and 0.4 years for platinum. This all shows one thing: they are extremely scarce. We began to wonder, are these things becoming currency because they are scarce? In contrast, platinum and palladium have an SF value of 1 or less, indicating that they are not that scarce. It is indeed true that gold has a stronger preservation value than other metals inside and outside the watch. The SF values of the commodities we use in daily life, such as food, mobile phones, computers, and cars, are far less than 1, which means that they have never been scarce. Why? That’s because as long as someone wants a product, you can produce it. Once someone wants to stock up, the price will rise, and more companies will produce.Prices will definitely fall. This is common sense about supply and demand balance. Then we can easily draw a conclusion that if the SF of a commodity is higher, then it can maintain its value and the less it will be diluted. Look at gold. In 1972, it was US$46 an ounce. In 2020, it reached a new high of US$1,744 an ounce, a total increase of 37.9 times. So why don’t we create more gold to meet demand? The reason is that the amount of gold mined is limited by mining technology and cost. If it costs you more to do something than you earn in the end, you will definitely not do it. So, what is the SF value of Bitcoin? 19.5 million Bitcoins have been mined in the world. However, a research report said that in fact, more than 1.6 million of the 19.5 million Bitcoins have been permanently lost. Therefore, there are only about 17.9 million Bitcoins that can actually be used. Based on the current annual output of Bitcoin, its SF is about 54, which is similar to gold. In a few months, Bitcoin's SF will rise to 108, and the annual inflation will be only about 0.9%. This means that Bitcoin has become the scarcest asset in human history since gold. Halving is the underlying reason for changing the supply relationship of Bitcoin, not anything else. And this supply relationship determines the currency price. Some people get excited when they hear about Bitcoin ETF, as if as long as it is passed, the price of the currency will skyrocket, which is amazing. I suggest that you don’t read the headlines and hype in the media, but look at the inside of things. It doesn’t matter if the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF passes, nor does it matter when. What is important is that the expectation of "Bitcoin ETF passing", as a bait to mobilize market confidence, will gradually form momentum and unknowingly push the currency price to above $45K in the future. You think you are still in a bear market, but in fact the bear market ended quietly without you knowing it. And this potential energy will continue. It is not your water pipe. BlackRock and the ETFs that followed, like the Suez Canal (Arabic: ), connected old money to new pools. The amount of insurance funds from traditional finance is huge, exceeding many people's imagination. Bitcoin is not too expensive for them, but too cheap and the plate is too small. The mighty Suez Canal connects north-south two-way water transportation between Europe and Asia.Since then, ships no longer have to go around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa. Fleets depart from London, England or Marseille, France, and sail to Mumbai, India, returning laden with gold, silk and spices. King Darius I of the Persian Dynasty completed the last section of the Suez Canal in 500 BC. He erected a granite stone tablet in one of the river areas, which read: I am a Persian, I rose from Persia and conquered Egypt. I ordered this river to be opened, and it would start at the Nile and flow through Egypt, and end at the vast sea near Persia. This river will be completed, and Egyptian ships can follow it directly to Persia, as I wish. Cool and crazy, this is the charm of the channel. The passage of the Bitcoin ETF will affect not just the moment, but the next dozen years. After the legal currency entry and exit channels are clear, time will do the rest. By 2025, maybe we can really see $100K+ Bitcoin. Bitcoin gradually evolved into the land of Manhattan and became a marker of social class. People choose Bitcoin not because it transfers faster than other currencies, but because it is expensive. It is expensive because it condenses the core consensus in the entire encryption game. As a vehicle for storing value, it is also an object that can be shown off in social relationships and is sought after by everyone. Bitcoin demonstrates your strength, your stability, your loyalty and your belief. It is your courtyard house in the Second Ring Road in Beijing, the old house on Hengshan Road in Shanghai, and the villa in the Mid-Levels of Hong Kong. Its value is determined by the wealthy class with real purchasing power. For example, a single share of Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares is as high as US$530,000. Funds flock to it and it continues to prosper. It is difficult for retail investors to even buy one share. Climbing to heaven, so what. Ten coins can be called a lord. The Price Anchoring Game If a person does not understand how currency prices are anchored, he or she does not truly understand Bitcoin. Let me talk about land first, and then back to Bitcoin. Everyone has played "Monopoly", but I rarely see anyone express its essence. You need to know in your mind that the role of the Federal Reserve is similar to the bank in the board game "Monopoly". Its goal is not to win, but to provide enough funds to keep the game going. For the Fed, the right amount of assets is the amount of assets that best enables it to fulfill its responsibilities. Monopoly is actually a land speculation game. The core is to monopolize resources. At the end of the game, there is only one winner, and other players are burial objects.Victory does not come from competition, it comes from monopoly. Ask, where does the financial revenue of a central empire come from? Answer, it is no different from Monopoly. It is nothing more than: state-owned enterprises, public land monopoly, financial system. For a centralized government, this game only cares about two points: 1) How to control the entire society with a top-down bureaucratic system; 2 ) How to feed this bureaucracy through commissions from the land, tax and financial systems. Countries all over the world are similar, and there is not much difference between ancient and modern times. Take the Tang Dynasty as an example. The government implemented a land equalization system. Every male born was allocated 80 acres of public land and 20 acres of Yongye land (private land). When a person is in his prime, he cultivates wasteland, collects grain, and performs labor. The annual harvest is handed over to the government in proportion. After death, the cultivated land is recovered. At the same time, the emperor also allowed local governments and yamen to own operational land and funds. The system eventually collapsed as land became increasingly concentrated in the hands of bureaucratic and aristocratic powers. For example, during the reign of Emperor Gaozong of the Tang Dynasty, a man named Wang Fangyi occupied a lot of land, probably dozens of hectares. By the time of Emperor Zhongzong of the Tang Dynasty, Princess Taiping owned a lot of fields spread across fertile areas. These lands were rented to poor farmers for cultivation, and most of the harvest was given to the powerful, and the government had to take another one. Many people hid in the countryside to escape hard labor. The government first registered the names of these fugitives in a book, and then simply ordered the fugitives to pay taxes. They either sold their land or houses, or transferred them to their neighbors. This cycle continued until there was no escape. What should I do if the game fails? Another round. Therefore, dynasties changed, peasants revolted, and the redistribution of resources was completed. The same is true in modern times. Most of the asset values promoted by East Asian countries are tied to land. These are the rules of the game set by the government, and the carrier is the house. The United States advocates capital efficiency, so the national game they play is the stock market, and the purchasing power represented by the national 401K pension is the reservoir. These are all different price-anchored games, and there are countless similar copies scattered around the world, such as Rolex, Hermès Birkin bags, Yu-Gi-Oh cards, limited edition blind box figures... all of them are like this. New York, USA, is developed enough and the building density is high enough, right? However, there are still more than 25,000 pieces of idle and under-used land, a total of 25,000 pieces (the light colors in the picture are vacant lands).There is even a proposal to impose a 3.5% tax on these lands, bringing in an additional $429.9 million to the city. Beijing, the most populous city in northern China, has an area of 16,000 square kilometers, but only 2,000 square kilometers of actual built-up area. Its land development rate is only 12.5%, even stingier than Hong Kong (25%). It is actually easy for Beijing to build large villas per capita. According to China's planning standard of 10,000 people per square kilometer, the city can accommodate 160 million people after it is fully developed. That being the case, why haven’t any of these governments built buildings to shelter the poor people in the world? Because in this game, land is the means of production, and the monopoly must maintain its scarcity in order for the game to continue. What is price anchoring? This is called price anchoring. To win, you have to understand Bitcoin's place in the crypto game...
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Article Review
Review of yesterday's article:
Yesterday's article was titled 'Conflict between Tops and Bottoms', with a price of 85800 at that time, and today's highest price is: 95000.
An increase of 9200 USD.
The bullish target of the head and shoulders pattern mentioned at the hourly level yesterday has been achieved.
The price target mentioned yesterday was 95000, and the highest price today is 95000.
Important point mentioned yesterday:
1,
The daily level downtrend that started from 110000 has come to a pause around 78250, with a significant amount of bulls entering the market and gradually taking over.
2,
The arc top still has an unachieved first segment equal distance drop target after the breakout, or during the process of achieving the target price around 72350.
Yesterday's article was titled 'Conflict between Tops and Bottoms', with a price of 85800 at that time, and today's highest price is: 95000.
An increase of 9200 USD.
The bullish target of the head and shoulders pattern mentioned at the hourly level yesterday has been achieved.
The price target mentioned yesterday was 95000, and the highest price today is 95000.
Important point mentioned yesterday:
1,
The daily level downtrend that started from 110000 has come to a pause around 78250, with a significant amount of bulls entering the market and gradually taking over.
2,
The arc top still has an unachieved first segment equal distance drop target after the breakout, or during the process of achieving the target price around 72350.
See original
Yesterday's Article Review:
Yesterday's article title was "Continuous Decline", with a price of 85000 at that time.
Today's lowest price is: 78258, a decline of 6742 USD.
Important points mentioned yesterday:
1,
The daily level continues to close with bearish candles, extending the downtrend while initiating the preliminary phase of a larger down cycle.
The overall decline is increasing, and selling pressure continues to strengthen.
2,
Panic sentiment is gradually spreading, selling sentiment is continuously strengthening, and buying sentiment is weakening.
3,
After the box was broken, market sentiment and buying and selling forces continued to trend heavily in one direction.
4,
Once the major trend moves out, it is difficult to reverse. Currently, the daily level will continue to spread in a downtrend continuation market stage into the larger down cycle market.
5,
Only with significant support appearing at the 12-hour and daily levels or a continuous series of bullish candles can there be a possibility of an end.
6,
In the overall downtrend, the bullish K-lines that appear during pullbacks on the four-hour level are all weak rebound candlesticks.
While rising with a weak rebound trend, strong resistance is also appearing.
This indicates that market selling sentiment continues to strengthen while buying power in smaller cycles is gradually weakening.
7,
After breaking below the top box bottom of 88000 at the one-hour level, the continuous decline has occurred.
The rebound performance after the price reached the bottom of 82222 is also not ideal.
Currently, a clear high-pressure line has appeared (not a range).
8,
Pressure line: around 85350, indicating strong pressure and gradually decreasing volatility.
Focus on testing and validating pressure near 85350,
and whether there are significant reversals and confirming candlesticks in the pressure zone.
9,
The unilateral decline cycle at the daily level triggered by a significant pullback at the weekly level,
and in an environment where there is no strong buying power entering and buying strength is gradually depleting.
The trading strategy can only be to trade on the high side and short, and to extend.
Yesterday's article title was "Continuous Decline", with a price of 85000 at that time.
Today's lowest price is: 78258, a decline of 6742 USD.
Important points mentioned yesterday:
1,
The daily level continues to close with bearish candles, extending the downtrend while initiating the preliminary phase of a larger down cycle.
The overall decline is increasing, and selling pressure continues to strengthen.
2,
Panic sentiment is gradually spreading, selling sentiment is continuously strengthening, and buying sentiment is weakening.
3,
After the box was broken, market sentiment and buying and selling forces continued to trend heavily in one direction.
4,
Once the major trend moves out, it is difficult to reverse. Currently, the daily level will continue to spread in a downtrend continuation market stage into the larger down cycle market.
5,
Only with significant support appearing at the 12-hour and daily levels or a continuous series of bullish candles can there be a possibility of an end.
6,
In the overall downtrend, the bullish K-lines that appear during pullbacks on the four-hour level are all weak rebound candlesticks.
While rising with a weak rebound trend, strong resistance is also appearing.
This indicates that market selling sentiment continues to strengthen while buying power in smaller cycles is gradually weakening.
7,
After breaking below the top box bottom of 88000 at the one-hour level, the continuous decline has occurred.
The rebound performance after the price reached the bottom of 82222 is also not ideal.
Currently, a clear high-pressure line has appeared (not a range).
8,
Pressure line: around 85350, indicating strong pressure and gradually decreasing volatility.
Focus on testing and validating pressure near 85350,
and whether there are significant reversals and confirming candlesticks in the pressure zone.
9,
The unilateral decline cycle at the daily level triggered by a significant pullback at the weekly level,
and in an environment where there is no strong buying power entering and buying strength is gradually depleting.
The trading strategy can only be to trade on the high side and short, and to extend.
See original
2.27 continued to fall
Daily level:
The daily level continued to close in the negative yesterday, closing in the negative for three consecutive days and completely falling below the daily level box
As the downward trend continues, the downward cycle begins, and the overall decline increases, and the selling force continues to strengthen.
The view of the falling relay mentioned yesterday was verified again, and the market will gradually move towards a new falling cycle.
Panic sentiment gradually spreads, selling sentiment continues to strengthen, and buying sentiment continues to weaken
After the box is broken, market sentiment and buying and selling forces continue to initiate and continue in a one-sided trend.
Once a major trend emerges, it is difficult to reverse. At present, the daily level will continue to spread from the market stage of falling relay to the market cycle of the large falling cycle.
The daily level continued to close in the negative yesterday, closing in the negative for three consecutive days and completely falling below the daily level box
As the downward trend continues, the downward cycle begins, and the overall decline increases, and the selling force continues to strengthen.
The view of the falling relay mentioned yesterday was verified again, and the market will gradually move towards a new falling cycle.
Panic sentiment gradually spreads, selling sentiment continues to strengthen, and buying sentiment continues to weaken
After the box is broken, market sentiment and buying and selling forces continue to initiate and continue in a one-sided trend.
Once a major trend emerges, it is difficult to reverse. At present, the daily level will continue to spread from the market stage of falling relay to the market cycle of the large falling cycle.
See original
Yesterday's Article Review:
Yesterday's article was titled "Continuation of Decline," with a price of 89000.
Today's lowest price is: 82222, a decline of around 6000 points.
Important points mentioned at the daily level yesterday:
1,
The daily level first showed a price performance where the decline was hindered.
2,
However, it should be noted that the daily level only showed a hindrance to the decline.
3,
There was no continuous positive movement at the daily level or sustained buying activity.
4,
While the decline has not yet ended, the market remains in a continuation phase of the downward trend.
5,
Market sentiment remains strongly influenced by panic selling.
6,
It is still necessary to note that the trend has not ended, and the market phase is in a continuation of the decline, along with the significant correction at the weekly level mentioned the day before yesterday.
7,
The rebound at the four-hour level is merely a result of profit-taking and the liquidation of low-position orders, leading to a weak rebound.
8,
During the weak rebound, there was insufficient buying power, and a pressure zone at the four-hour level appeared:
89200-90000.
9,
The four-hour level is still in an adjustment phase. During the adjustment, focus on testing the pressure levels; a breakout and stabilization would confirm an initial rebound.
10,
The one-hour level is in a range consolidation phase after the trend has emerged and the correction has ended, consistent with the four-hour level, requiring close attention to the testing of the upper pressure zone.
Yesterday's article was titled "Continuation of Decline," with a price of 89000.
Today's lowest price is: 82222, a decline of around 6000 points.
Important points mentioned at the daily level yesterday:
1,
The daily level first showed a price performance where the decline was hindered.
2,
However, it should be noted that the daily level only showed a hindrance to the decline.
3,
There was no continuous positive movement at the daily level or sustained buying activity.
4,
While the decline has not yet ended, the market remains in a continuation phase of the downward trend.
5,
Market sentiment remains strongly influenced by panic selling.
6,
It is still necessary to note that the trend has not ended, and the market phase is in a continuation of the decline, along with the significant correction at the weekly level mentioned the day before yesterday.
7,
The rebound at the four-hour level is merely a result of profit-taking and the liquidation of low-position orders, leading to a weak rebound.
8,
During the weak rebound, there was insufficient buying power, and a pressure zone at the four-hour level appeared:
89200-90000.
9,
The four-hour level is still in an adjustment phase. During the adjustment, focus on testing the pressure levels; a breakout and stabilization would confirm an initial rebound.
10,
The one-hour level is in a range consolidation phase after the trend has emerged and the correction has ended, consistent with the four-hour level, requiring close attention to the testing of the upper pressure zone.
See original
I won’t say much, tonight I will stop profit at 1500 points for my short position
Since February 15, I have been posting articles and videos saying that it is a bearish trend
And I have been saying that the trend has not changed. I also said yesterday that the weekly trend is coming
If you understand my articles and videos, even if you don’t short, at least you won’t go long
I can only say that there are causes for rises and falls, and there are consequences for gains and losses
https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cart/20825899670481?r=715131951&l=zh-CN&uco=-cf-HsDff_AgSEezQXsuog&uc=app_square_share_link&us=copylink $BTC
Since February 15, I have been posting articles and videos saying that it is a bearish trend
And I have been saying that the trend has not changed. I also said yesterday that the weekly trend is coming
If you understand my articles and videos, even if you don’t short, at least you won’t go long
I can only say that there are causes for rises and falls, and there are consequences for gains and losses
https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cart/20825899670481?r=715131951&l=zh-CN&uco=-cf-HsDff_AgSEezQXsuog&uc=app_square_share_link&us=copylink $BTC
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February 26 downside relay
Daily level:
The daily level closed yesterday with a negative line with a shadow line and a body almost twice as large as the
Represents a new round of downward trend that started from 96500 the day before yesterday
For the first time, the price performance of the decline was blocked
But it should be noted that this is only a decline.
There is no sign of continued positive trend on the daily chart and no signs of buying coming in gradually.
Therefore, I personally think that the decline has not ended yet and the market is still in the market stage of the downward relay in the downward trend.
The market sentiment is still full of panic, but the market is currently in a consolidation phase, so the sentiment will be alleviated to a certain extent.
The daily level closed yesterday with a negative line with a shadow line and a body almost twice as large as the
Represents a new round of downward trend that started from 96500 the day before yesterday
For the first time, the price performance of the decline was blocked
But it should be noted that this is only a decline.
There is no sign of continued positive trend on the daily chart and no signs of buying coming in gradually.
Therefore, I personally think that the decline has not ended yet and the market is still in the market stage of the downward relay in the downward trend.
The market sentiment is still full of panic, but the market is currently in a consolidation phase, so the sentiment will be alleviated to a certain extent.
See original
One-hour level:
The pressure range of the one-hour level is consistent with the four-hour level: around 89200-90000
The pressure level is obvious and has been verified for many times. After encountering a weak rebound in the relay stage of the decline, there was obvious selling pressure
The panic sentiment still persists, but the continuous testing of the pressure area shows that there are continuous buying orders entering the market
It’s just that the main force is still in the process of waiting and watching, so the current market stage is in the stage of relaying down
However, the small level is in the stage of consolidation after the trend has come out and the callback has ended
Consistent with the hourly level, focus on the testing of the upper pressure range
The pressure range of the one-hour level is consistent with the four-hour level: around 89200-90000
The pressure level is obvious and has been verified for many times. After encountering a weak rebound in the relay stage of the decline, there was obvious selling pressure
The panic sentiment still persists, but the continuous testing of the pressure area shows that there are continuous buying orders entering the market
It’s just that the main force is still in the process of waiting and watching, so the current market stage is in the stage of relaying down
However, the small level is in the stage of consolidation after the trend has come out and the callback has ended
Consistent with the hourly level, focus on the testing of the upper pressure range
See original
Four-hour level:
After the four-hour level fell to the lowest point of 86020, it fell to a new low again
But the new low was not broken and three positive candlesticks appeared after the rebound
It is worth noting that the real body of these three positive candlesticks is not large and is getting smaller and smaller, and it is impossible to form a combination engulfing the previous negative candlestick
That is to say, the buying power here is not strong, it is just a weak rebound caused by the settlement of profit-taking orders and the settlement of low-level orders
After the three positive candlesticks closed, there was an obvious pressure level, and the upper shadow line gradually became longer
That is to say, there was a lack of buying power at the same time as the weak rebound, and the 4-hour level pressure level range appeared: around 89200-90000
The four-hour level is still in the adjustment stage. During the adjustment, focus on the test of the pressure level. If it breaks and stabilizes, it will be a preliminary rebound confirmation.
After the four-hour level fell to the lowest point of 86020, it fell to a new low again
But the new low was not broken and three positive candlesticks appeared after the rebound
It is worth noting that the real body of these three positive candlesticks is not large and is getting smaller and smaller, and it is impossible to form a combination engulfing the previous negative candlestick
That is to say, the buying power here is not strong, it is just a weak rebound caused by the settlement of profit-taking orders and the settlement of low-level orders
After the three positive candlesticks closed, there was an obvious pressure level, and the upper shadow line gradually became longer
That is to say, there was a lack of buying power at the same time as the weak rebound, and the 4-hour level pressure level range appeared: around 89200-90000
The four-hour level is still in the adjustment stage. During the adjustment, focus on the test of the pressure level. If it breaks and stabilizes, it will be a preliminary rebound confirmation.
See original
Daily level:
The daily level closed yesterday with a negative line with a shadow line and a body that is almost twice as long
Representing a new round of downward trend that started from 96500 the day before yesterday
For the first time, the price performance of the decline being blocked appeared
But it should be emphasized that it is only the decline being blocked here
There is no continuous positive trend at the daily level and the performance of buying gradually continuing to enter
So, I personally think that the decline has not ended and the market is still in the market stage of the downward relay in the downward trend
The market sentiment is still a strong panic, but the market is currently in the consolidation stage, so the sentiment will be alleviated to a certain extent
But it is still necessary to pay attention to the trend has not ended, and it is currently in the market stage of the downward relay, and the large weekly level correction mentioned yesterday still exists
The daily level closed yesterday with a negative line with a shadow line and a body that is almost twice as long
Representing a new round of downward trend that started from 96500 the day before yesterday
For the first time, the price performance of the decline being blocked appeared
But it should be emphasized that it is only the decline being blocked here
There is no continuous positive trend at the daily level and the performance of buying gradually continuing to enter
So, I personally think that the decline has not ended and the market is still in the market stage of the downward relay in the downward trend
The market sentiment is still a strong panic, but the market is currently in the consolidation stage, so the sentiment will be alleviated to a certain extent
But it is still necessary to pay attention to the trend has not ended, and it is currently in the market stage of the downward relay, and the large weekly level correction mentioned yesterday still exists
See original
I have been saying that we can only short for a month now
I don't know if there are any fated people seeing this
Yesterday's order is consistent with the ideas in the articles and videos
Since February 15th, I have been emphasizing that we can only look for short opportunities, there are no conditions or reasons to go long
The downward trend that started from 11000 has already developed, and we are currently undergoing a large-scale weekly level correction
The downward trend has not yet ended, do not trade against the trend, if we can't hold above 89000 these days, it will continue to fall, and it will break through directly
In short, there are four words: it has not finished falling, no more chatter, if we can save one, that is one
$BTC 昨天91000的时候已经说的很明白了，还没跌完！
I don't know if there are any fated people seeing this
Yesterday's order is consistent with the ideas in the articles and videos
Since February 15th, I have been emphasizing that we can only look for short opportunities, there are no conditions or reasons to go long
The downward trend that started from 11000 has already developed, and we are currently undergoing a large-scale weekly level correction
The downward trend has not yet ended, do not trade against the trend, if we can't hold above 89000 these days, it will continue to fall, and it will break through directly
In short, there are four words: it has not finished falling, no more chatter, if we can save one, that is one
$BTC 昨天91000的时候已经说的很明白了，还没跌完！
See original
A friend in the crypto world has been in seclusion for three years, sharing a trading method with a win rate of 98%!
In the crypto world, there is a friend in Beijing who was in debt of 60 million due to a contract liquidation three years ago, after which he chose to go into seclusion for self-improvement.
Now, not only has he paid off his debt, but he also possesses a wealth that others envy, with a monthly income reaching seven figures and an annual income exceeding eight figures!
Recently, we were fortunate enough to meet.
He shared with me the trading methods he acquired during his three years of seclusion. I have organized this information and verified it through thousands of trading practices, discovering that its win rate astonishingly reaches 98%! Now, I am willing to share this valuable experience with those destined to receive it.
A common problem among retail investors worldwide is: holding onto losses stubbornly and being eager to sell as soon as there is a slight profit.
They often do not look at trends or trading volumes, only at the limited profits in their accounts. However, the correct approach should be to operate in the opposite way: hold onto profits and let them run;
when at a loss, decisively cut losses to control them. My profit-taking and stop-loss principles are: when profits reach 15%, if the profit falls back to 10%, take profit;
if the loss exceeds 5% of the principal after purchase, then stop loss. With such a strategy, even if your win rate is only 50%, after 100 operations, the return can reach an astonishing 300%!
But the difficulty lies in human greed and fear. Knowing and doing must be unified; remember that trends are king and act in accordance with the trend. Once a trend is established, there is no need for excessive analysis; you must follow.
Follow the money, do not speculate, do not predict, do not assume. If you are unable to judge the trend, just look at the moving averages.
Moving averages divide the market into bullish and bearish: bullish moves up, bearish moves down. For short-term, look at the daily moving average; if there is a breakout with volume, follow it; for medium to long-term, look at the weekly moving average; if there is a breakout with volume, enter the market, and if it breaks down, exit.
Acting in accordance with the trend means not going against it. When the market is bad, firmly stay out of positions; when the trend of the coin is down, do not easily try to catch the bottom. Do not fantasize that you can buy coins that rise against the market, nor should you expect that buying will start a rebound. The probability of such situations is too low. The core of trading is to only engage in high-probability events and abandon low-probability ones.
Daring to admit mistakes and timely controlling losses is fundamental to your survival in the market. Its importance far exceeds the inability to profit today. No matter what method you use, mastering one is enough. You must use this method thoroughly, expertly, and completely.
In the crypto world, there is a friend in Beijing who was in debt of 60 million due to a contract liquidation three years ago, after which he chose to go into seclusion for self-improvement.
Now, not only has he paid off his debt, but he also possesses a wealth that others envy, with a monthly income reaching seven figures and an annual income exceeding eight figures!
Recently, we were fortunate enough to meet.
He shared with me the trading methods he acquired during his three years of seclusion. I have organized this information and verified it through thousands of trading practices, discovering that its win rate astonishingly reaches 98%! Now, I am willing to share this valuable experience with those destined to receive it.
A common problem among retail investors worldwide is: holding onto losses stubbornly and being eager to sell as soon as there is a slight profit.
They often do not look at trends or trading volumes, only at the limited profits in their accounts. However, the correct approach should be to operate in the opposite way: hold onto profits and let them run;
when at a loss, decisively cut losses to control them. My profit-taking and stop-loss principles are: when profits reach 15%, if the profit falls back to 10%, take profit;
if the loss exceeds 5% of the principal after purchase, then stop loss. With such a strategy, even if your win rate is only 50%, after 100 operations, the return can reach an astonishing 300%!
But the difficulty lies in human greed and fear. Knowing and doing must be unified; remember that trends are king and act in accordance with the trend. Once a trend is established, there is no need for excessive analysis; you must follow.
Follow the money, do not speculate, do not predict, do not assume. If you are unable to judge the trend, just look at the moving averages.
Moving averages divide the market into bullish and bearish: bullish moves up, bearish moves down. For short-term, look at the daily moving average; if there is a breakout with volume, follow it; for medium to long-term, look at the weekly moving average; if there is a breakout with volume, enter the market, and if it breaks down, exit.
Acting in accordance with the trend means not going against it. When the market is bad, firmly stay out of positions; when the trend of the coin is down, do not easily try to catch the bottom. Do not fantasize that you can buy coins that rise against the market, nor should you expect that buying will start a rebound. The probability of such situations is too low. The core of trading is to only engage in high-probability events and abandon low-probability ones.
Daring to admit mistakes and timely controlling losses is fundamental to your survival in the market. Its importance far exceeds the inability to profit today. No matter what method you use, mastering one is enough. You must use this method thoroughly, expertly, and completely.
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2.25 has not fallen yet
Weekly level:
Last week's weekly level closed with a star-shaped positive line
It is a star line of adjustment type game in the weekly downward trend starting from 110000
K-by-K weekly analysis:
The weekly line opened on January 20th is a rising resistance candlestick after the price reached the high point of 110,000.
The weekly lines from January 27 to February 17 are all high-level callback-type downward trend K-lines.
This week's weekly line continued to move negative after opening, and formed a strong entity engulfing the left and right adjustment K-lines in front
This means that the sharp weekly correction continues the downward trend while going further.
The MACD dead cross at the weekly level continues while the volume column remains unchanged for 5 weeks
Last week's weekly level closed with a star-shaped positive line
It is a star line of adjustment type game in the weekly downward trend starting from 110000
K-by-K weekly analysis:
The weekly line opened on January 20th is a rising resistance candlestick after the price reached the high point of 110,000.
The weekly lines from January 27 to February 17 are all high-level callback-type downward trend K-lines.
This week's weekly line continued to move negative after opening, and formed a strong entity engulfing the left and right adjustment K-lines in front
This means that the sharp weekly correction continues the downward trend while going further.
The MACD dead cross at the weekly level continues while the volume column remains unchanged for 5 weeks
See original
There is a very foolish method for trading cryptocurrencies that has almost 100% profitability. From now on, start serious research on cryptocurrency trading. There is a senior around me who used to run a supermarket, and then he got involved in the crypto world. Since then, he started researching cryptocurrency trading seriously and achieved a turnaround in his life, now his assets have reached eight figures. The method he uses is actually very simple, with just 4 steps: selecting the coin, buying, position management, and then selling. Every detail will be explained clearly to you!
First step: Open the daily chart and only look at the daily level, focusing on the coins with a MACD golden cross, preferably selecting those with a golden cross above the zero axis, as this effect is the best!
Second step: Switch to the daily level; here you only need to look at one moving average called the daily moving average. Buy when above the line, sell when below the line.
Third step: After buying, if the coin price breaks above the daily moving average and the volume is also above the daily moving average, buy with your entire position. For the fourth step, selling, this is divided into three details: the first is when the overall wave increase exceeds 40%, sell 1/3 of the total position; the second is when the overall wave increase exceeds 80%, sell another 1/3, and when it breaks below the daily moving average, clear the entire position.
The fourth step is also the most important one. Since we are using the daily moving average as our buying basis, if the next day some unexpected situation occurs and it directly breaks below, then you must sell everything and not hold any illusions! Although the probability of breaking through using our coin selection method is very low, we still need to have risk awareness! After selling, wait for it to rise above the daily moving average again, and you can buy back in!
First step: Open the daily chart and only look at the daily level, focusing on the coins with a MACD golden cross, preferably selecting those with a golden cross above the zero axis, as this effect is the best!
Second step: Switch to the daily level; here you only need to look at one moving average called the daily moving average. Buy when above the line, sell when below the line.
Third step: After buying, if the coin price breaks above the daily moving average and the volume is also above the daily moving average, buy with your entire position. For the fourth step, selling, this is divided into three details: the first is when the overall wave increase exceeds 40%, sell 1/3 of the total position; the second is when the overall wave increase exceeds 80%, sell another 1/3, and when it breaks below the daily moving average, clear the entire position.
The fourth step is also the most important one. Since we are using the daily moving average as our buying basis, if the next day some unexpected situation occurs and it directly breaks below, then you must sell everything and not hold any illusions! Although the probability of breaking through using our coin selection method is very low, we still need to have risk awareness! After selling, wait for it to rise above the daily moving average again, and you can buy back in!
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Why do you always find yourself buying at the halfway point?
Brothers, let me educate you on the logic of market manipulators. If the coin you bought has been declining for several months and suddenly shows a big bullish candle at the bottom, remember not to chase the price, do not chase the price. Many people think they have finally found the opportunity to buy the dip, and they go all in, only to find out they've bought at the halfway point!
Let me explain why you shouldn't buy the dip when a big bullish candle appears, and the possible scenarios.
The first scenario is a bullish signal. If the market maker is preparing to pump the price at this position, they generally won't continue to create several big bullish candles. Even if they do create a bullish candle, there will usually be a pullback. The reason the market maker creates a bullish candle at this position is either that they are near their cost price, or they cannot acquire low-priced chips. They need to pump the price to allow those who are stuck to sell, so they can acquire more low-priced chips. Now think about it: if the market is pumped a bit and you've been stuck for months, would you sell? Clearly, many people would sell to break even, which will inevitably drive the price down. The market maker cannot support the price at this position. For the market maker, they need low-priced chips, which is why a big bullish candle at the bottom is likely to pull back. Typically, it will pull back more than 50% of the highest price, so at this time, absolutely do not chase the price.
The second scenario is to lure in buyers to sell off. If the market maker hasn’t finished selling their goods, or if the selling price is too low, they will lure in buyers by pumping the price, allowing those who chase the price to take the bait.
So in what situations can you buy the dip?
If a coin is in a rapid decline, and during this decline, there is a super high volume at the bottom, followed by a quick rebound within 15-30 minutes, forming a spike candle, it is a good time to boldly buy the dip. Why? The super high volume at the bottom during the decline indicates that the market maker is accumulating at this position. When there is a rapid decline, retail investors are afraid to buy, only wanting to sell. Only the market maker would sweep up the goods at this position. So why is there a quick rebound in 15-30 minutes? Because the market maker wants those chips and doesn't want to share the low-priced chips with retail investors, so they must quickly pull back.
This is the logic of buying the dip, hope it helps you!
Brothers, let me educate you on the logic of market manipulators. If the coin you bought has been declining for several months and suddenly shows a big bullish candle at the bottom, remember not to chase the price, do not chase the price. Many people think they have finally found the opportunity to buy the dip, and they go all in, only to find out they've bought at the halfway point!
Let me explain why you shouldn't buy the dip when a big bullish candle appears, and the possible scenarios.
The first scenario is a bullish signal. If the market maker is preparing to pump the price at this position, they generally won't continue to create several big bullish candles. Even if they do create a bullish candle, there will usually be a pullback. The reason the market maker creates a bullish candle at this position is either that they are near their cost price, or they cannot acquire low-priced chips. They need to pump the price to allow those who are stuck to sell, so they can acquire more low-priced chips. Now think about it: if the market is pumped a bit and you've been stuck for months, would you sell? Clearly, many people would sell to break even, which will inevitably drive the price down. The market maker cannot support the price at this position. For the market maker, they need low-priced chips, which is why a big bullish candle at the bottom is likely to pull back. Typically, it will pull back more than 50% of the highest price, so at this time, absolutely do not chase the price.
The second scenario is to lure in buyers to sell off. If the market maker hasn’t finished selling their goods, or if the selling price is too low, they will lure in buyers by pumping the price, allowing those who chase the price to take the bait.
So in what situations can you buy the dip?
If a coin is in a rapid decline, and during this decline, there is a super high volume at the bottom, followed by a quick rebound within 15-30 minutes, forming a spike candle, it is a good time to boldly buy the dip. Why? The super high volume at the bottom during the decline indicates that the market maker is accumulating at this position. When there is a rapid decline, retail investors are afraid to buy, only wanting to sell. Only the market maker would sweep up the goods at this position. So why is there a quick rebound in 15-30 minutes? Because the market maker wants those chips and doesn't want to share the low-priced chips with retail investors, so they must quickly pull back.
This is the logic of buying the dip, hope it helps you!
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Regarding the news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, things have really changed; don't be caught off guard anymore.
The Federal Reserve has issued its strongest and most shocking statement this year - even if inflation decreases, it may not lead to an interest rate cut.
This viewpoint was expressed by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a person of significant weight, whose every public statement stirs Wall Street's nerves.
Logan is a highly influential technical official within the Federal Reserve system, having held several important positions in other departments of the Fed, notably as the head of the monetary policy division at the New York Fed, where she gained deep insights into market microstructure.
Logan is also regarded by Wall Street as the "crisis firefighter"; during the 2008 global financial crisis, her outstanding performance in the New York Fed's market group drew attention.
She truly came into the spotlight during the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 - as the head of open market operations at the New York Fed, she led the design of a series of unconventional liquidity support tools, including corporate bond purchases, with a daily operation scale reaching up to one trillion dollars.
The Federal Reserve previously stated two conditions for resuming rate cuts: a decrease in inflation or a worsening economic situation.
Logan's remarks can be seen as a cold shower for the market, making the prospect of an interest rate cut seem increasingly distant.
The occasion for Logan's remarks was at a banking conference hosted by Southern Methodist University, and it was close to the global market closing time, so it did not attract much attention from the market.
If it had appeared on CNBC's screen, the market would have reacted differently. Logan's original words were: even if we indeed get better data (which seems to be approaching 2%), I believe we should still be cautious.
Because if the labor market and overall economy are strong, even in that environment, it does not necessarily mean there is further room for interest rate cuts. My primary concern is to ensure... that the inflation rate reaches our 2% target.
From her speech, it seems there is no longer a necessity for rate cuts. It is particularly noteworthy that Logan was previously a "dove" official, but has now become "extremely hawkish."
Next week, more Fed officials will speak, and if we hear a few more such voices, then it could really signify a change.
The Federal Reserve has issued its strongest and most shocking statement this year - even if inflation decreases, it may not lead to an interest rate cut.
This viewpoint was expressed by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a person of significant weight, whose every public statement stirs Wall Street's nerves.
Logan is a highly influential technical official within the Federal Reserve system, having held several important positions in other departments of the Fed, notably as the head of the monetary policy division at the New York Fed, where she gained deep insights into market microstructure.
Logan is also regarded by Wall Street as the "crisis firefighter"; during the 2008 global financial crisis, her outstanding performance in the New York Fed's market group drew attention.
She truly came into the spotlight during the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 - as the head of open market operations at the New York Fed, she led the design of a series of unconventional liquidity support tools, including corporate bond purchases, with a daily operation scale reaching up to one trillion dollars.
The Federal Reserve previously stated two conditions for resuming rate cuts: a decrease in inflation or a worsening economic situation.
Logan's remarks can be seen as a cold shower for the market, making the prospect of an interest rate cut seem increasingly distant.
The occasion for Logan's remarks was at a banking conference hosted by Southern Methodist University, and it was close to the global market closing time, so it did not attract much attention from the market.
If it had appeared on CNBC's screen, the market would have reacted differently. Logan's original words were: even if we indeed get better data (which seems to be approaching 2%), I believe we should still be cautious.
Because if the labor market and overall economy are strong, even in that environment, it does not necessarily mean there is further room for interest rate cuts. My primary concern is to ensure... that the inflation rate reaches our 2% target.
From her speech, it seems there is no longer a necessity for rate cuts. It is particularly noteworthy that Logan was previously a "dove" official, but has now become "extremely hawkish."
Next week, more Fed officials will speak, and if we hear a few more such voices, then it could really signify a change.
See original
Looking back to before the bull market in 2021, on that day of March 12th!!!
Nearly 95% of all long investors were liquidated, and the market was filled with wails!!!
Even more exaggerated, those who thought about catching the bottom
were ruthlessly swallowed by the market and also faced liquidation
In the end, only those short sellers remained, only shorting, never going long
But who would have thought that after March 12th, the market would enter an infinite rally mode, capturing these short sellers as well
In the 24 hours following the dramatic drop on the night of March 12th, the total amount of liquidations across the network reached 3.28 billion USD
Equivalent to about 22.9 billion RMB, with over 110,000 people liquidated
And in the extreme market conditions on March 12th, not only were all long positions liquidated, but several major global exchanges also faced certain impacts.
Now, less than a month away from March 12th,
history seems to be replaying itself in a different way
This time, Bitcoin has hardly dropped, while altcoins are plunging more violently than ever, and contract leverage has been completely cleaned out
The massive expansion of altcoins in the past two years has led to a dispersion of funds, making it difficult to trigger a general rally
Thus, the requirements for cryptocurrency investors to choose their sectors will be higher
Some altcoins may never rise again
Until they exit the historical stage, while some altcoins will become more favored by funds, creating huge profits while capital chases hotspots
Currently, this washout process appears to be a quick clean-up before the New Year
Next, it is highly likely that a wave of bullish trends will follow
This will be the final big trend of this bull market.
Scaring away the indecisive long retail investors directly, setting the stage for the next big trend, just like the previous March 12th event
On February 3rd of this year, the market was too ruthless, one needle down was aimed at cleaning up leverage, then it quickly rebounded.
Once the leverage cleanup is complete, we will welcome the true upcoming bull market; missing this wave of the bull market means waiting another four years!
Looking back at the 94 event in 2017, the 312 event in 2020, and the 519 event in 2021.
The market completes one reshuffle after another. Few investors can hold on until the real bull market arrives. In reality, the true bull market has always been a harvest season for a select few.
Daily focus: BNX BNB CAKE
No matter what the trend is, Qige has thoughts on how to operate
Recognizing the trend, finding the right direction, not holding positions, not chasing highs or selling lows
Achieving unity of knowledge and action, only then can you have your own profits in this market
#BNBChainMeme热潮 $BTC
Nearly 95% of all long investors were liquidated, and the market was filled with wails!!!
Even more exaggerated, those who thought about catching the bottom
were ruthlessly swallowed by the market and also faced liquidation
In the end, only those short sellers remained, only shorting, never going long
But who would have thought that after March 12th, the market would enter an infinite rally mode, capturing these short sellers as well
In the 24 hours following the dramatic drop on the night of March 12th, the total amount of liquidations across the network reached 3.28 billion USD
Equivalent to about 22.9 billion RMB, with over 110,000 people liquidated
And in the extreme market conditions on March 12th, not only were all long positions liquidated, but several major global exchanges also faced certain impacts.
Now, less than a month away from March 12th,
history seems to be replaying itself in a different way
This time, Bitcoin has hardly dropped, while altcoins are plunging more violently than ever, and contract leverage has been completely cleaned out
The massive expansion of altcoins in the past two years has led to a dispersion of funds, making it difficult to trigger a general rally
Thus, the requirements for cryptocurrency investors to choose their sectors will be higher
Some altcoins may never rise again
Until they exit the historical stage, while some altcoins will become more favored by funds, creating huge profits while capital chases hotspots
Currently, this washout process appears to be a quick clean-up before the New Year
Next, it is highly likely that a wave of bullish trends will follow
This will be the final big trend of this bull market.
Scaring away the indecisive long retail investors directly, setting the stage for the next big trend, just like the previous March 12th event
On February 3rd of this year, the market was too ruthless, one needle down was aimed at cleaning up leverage, then it quickly rebounded.
Once the leverage cleanup is complete, we will welcome the true upcoming bull market; missing this wave of the bull market means waiting another four years!
Looking back at the 94 event in 2017, the 312 event in 2020, and the 519 event in 2021.
The market completes one reshuffle after another. Few investors can hold on until the real bull market arrives. In reality, the true bull market has always been a harvest season for a select few.
Daily focus: BNX BNB CAKE
No matter what the trend is, Qige has thoughts on how to operate
Recognizing the trend, finding the right direction, not holding positions, not chasing highs or selling lows
Achieving unity of knowledge and action, only then can you have your own profits in this market
#BNBChainMeme热潮 $BTC
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Sister Mu finally said something a normal investor would say!
I remember a few years ago, Sister Mu frequently spoke grandly in public, and every time she mentioned predicting Bitcoin's future price, she would casually say it could be several million dollars each, or even over ten million dollars each!
At that time, I really admired her; she was always talking nonsense!
The estimate of 300,000 to 500,000 dollars, we at Bishi have been predicting since 2022 that there is a high probability it will reach this price range between 2029-2031!
Moreover, there will be an unprecedented 'bull market' for Bitcoin afterwards! As for how to define this 'bull market', it varies from person to person, and I don't want to explain too much, so I keep emphasizing that the crypto space still has a 6-8 year period of dividends. If as of today you haven't achieved results in the crypto space, you must stop and ask yourself why you haven't gotten results? Because this question is worth deep consideration!
What I fear the most is that in 2029-2031, if Bitcoin really reaches 300,000 to 500,000 dollars, or even higher, and those of you today still haven't obtained the corresponding results, then it can only be said that everyone is still on the path of accompanying the exam!
Those who are awakened and love to learn are continuously achieving results in the crypto space, but many people are still stuck in the cycle of spending three years here and three years there, patching things up and accompanying the exam for another three years, which is truly the saddest part!
So, family, let me share a piece of advice: enhance industry awareness, respect candlestick analysis, stay away from greed (sham coins), and return to value (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin). In the future, 2029-2031, you will thank the decisions you made today!$BTC $ETH $BNB
I remember a few years ago, Sister Mu frequently spoke grandly in public, and every time she mentioned predicting Bitcoin's future price, she would casually say it could be several million dollars each, or even over ten million dollars each!
At that time, I really admired her; she was always talking nonsense!
The estimate of 300,000 to 500,000 dollars, we at Bishi have been predicting since 2022 that there is a high probability it will reach this price range between 2029-2031!
Moreover, there will be an unprecedented 'bull market' for Bitcoin afterwards! As for how to define this 'bull market', it varies from person to person, and I don't want to explain too much, so I keep emphasizing that the crypto space still has a 6-8 year period of dividends. If as of today you haven't achieved results in the crypto space, you must stop and ask yourself why you haven't gotten results? Because this question is worth deep consideration!
What I fear the most is that in 2029-2031, if Bitcoin really reaches 300,000 to 500,000 dollars, or even higher, and those of you today still haven't obtained the corresponding results, then it can only be said that everyone is still on the path of accompanying the exam!
Those who are awakened and love to learn are continuously achieving results in the crypto space, but many people are still stuck in the cycle of spending three years here and three years there, patching things up and accompanying the exam for another three years, which is truly the saddest part!
So, family, let me share a piece of advice: enhance industry awareness, respect candlestick analysis, stay away from greed (sham coins), and return to value (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin). In the future, 2029-2031, you will thank the decisions you made today!$BTC $ETH $BNB
See original
Bitcoin Market Analysis February 13 Downtrend Channel
Daily level:
The daily level closed with an engulfing bullish candle yesterday.
This is a strong rebound formed after the decline triggered by yesterday's CPI news.
However, it should be emphasized that the resistance level at the daily chart above is forming.
Resistance area: around 98500-98200.
The lower shadow lows in the daily level downtrend are gradually moving down.
This represents that during a whole downtrend, the selling pressure is gradually increasing.
Buying pressure is starting to gradually weaken.
Today, the daily level has continued to move down after opening.
The overall downtrend continues, and market sentiment remains a continuous selling sentiment.
Four-hour level:
The four-hour level has formed a standard downtrend channel.
The daily level closed with an engulfing bullish candle yesterday.
This is a strong rebound formed after the decline triggered by yesterday's CPI news.
However, it should be emphasized that the resistance level at the daily chart above is forming.
Resistance area: around 98500-98200.
The lower shadow lows in the daily level downtrend are gradually moving down.
This represents that during a whole downtrend, the selling pressure is gradually increasing.
Buying pressure is starting to gradually weaken.
Today, the daily level has continued to move down after opening.
The overall downtrend continues, and market sentiment remains a continuous selling sentiment.
Four-hour level:
The four-hour level has formed a standard downtrend channel.
See original
One Hour Level:
The one hour level is consistent with the four hour level.
The downward channel is obvious and standard, while the upper pressure area is once again validated.
In the downtrend, focus on the support and resistance interchange position around 96500 within the channel.
Pay attention to the pullback situation after breaking down; if there is no pullback or recovery,
then the downward trend starting from the upper edge of the channel is likely to continue the trend of a downward continuation market phase.
The one hour level is consistent with the four hour level.
The downward channel is obvious and standard, while the upper pressure area is once again validated.
In the downtrend, focus on the support and resistance interchange position around 96500 within the channel.
Pay attention to the pullback situation after breaking down; if there is no pullback or recovery,
then the downward trend starting from the upper edge of the channel is likely to continue the trend of a downward continuation market phase.
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