Crypto子棋

I always feel that the current market is very strange, or rather inexplicable! Perhaps it's the aftereffect of 1011, liquidity is depleted, market confidence is lacking, and it feels like something is always missing!

The profit-making effect is too poor, intermittent market trends, and each time the duration is very short, compared to previous bull markets, it's simply much worse.

It's rare to see bulls now, and unfortunately, I am one of them.

Mainly, I don't really believe that the bull market will end so hastily, and I don't really believe that there will be no big market trends before the end of the year, so I have been persisting. Fortunately, I have faith in spot trading, and I play short-term in contracts, it's just a matter of patience, and what I lack the least is patience. Everything will be left to time!

Only in despair is there hope. Everyone is eagerly waiting for interest rate cuts and balance sheet reductions. However, once the results were confirmed, we instead faced a severe drop. Who can stand this!

This has led to market fear, even the US stock market is showing a slight decline. The current drop does not mean that there can't be a rise later on. Perhaps you are feeling quite uncomfortable now, but in a week, you might feel much better. This is a very common occurrence.

This drop has not broken through the previous low, rebounding near 108000. The support here is very strong, and I remain confident about the future. A crisis is also an opportunity. The macro policy trend is good, so why fear short-term declines? Perhaps it will come soon!

November has always been a very crucial month, and I remain confident that there will definitely be a big wave before the Chinese New Year!

ZEC is really strong!!!

It ignores the risk of decline, while BTC is falling, it is still rising, feels good...

The cow keeps on

This is the process of a long bull and a slow bull

It just lowers its head to graze

But you are always worried that it will die

Stabilizing around 108000, there is still something to see if it doesn't stabilize, then it will need to adjust for a while

Don't let the fears and greed in your heart triumph over your reason and goals!

Feeling comfortable, as long as I strictly follow the indicators, the win rate is really high. I used to lose money because I was operating blindly, not following the indicators...

Today it was indicated that ZEC reached a temporary bottom, so I decisively jumped in, it's quite good...

What's going on? You won't just go up directly, will you? Come on, drop a little, I'm just testing my position!

I haven't filled my position enough yet, don't just go up, wait for me...

Just wait, if it goes up, then forget it. If it doesn't go up, then follow the strategy and strictly execute the trading plan!

From the trends of BTC and ETH, the short-term upward momentum is weak, as it has already risen for several consecutive days and needs one to two days of adjustment. ETH is expected to stabilize around 4100 below.

Last night, the US stock market's new high not breaking through indicates short-term weakness, and the second peak during the night is produced in this way. However, the adjustment period will be relatively short, especially with the interest rate cut expectations on Wednesday night.

BTC has small support around 113600, and we need to wait for further confirmation.

From the 4H perspective, BTC has a demand for a pullback. The daily chart has already shown multiple consecutive bullish days. Tonight, U.S. stocks are expected to open higher, but BTC has not been able to keep up in time, indicating some short-term weakness that requires a pullback to gather strength!

In the afternoon, indicators suggested that BTC showed signs of a peak around 115400. Referring to ETH's movement at that time, I decisively chose to take profits, while my current BTC position is mainly held because the entry price is low, and the subsequent pullback is limited, so I am temporarily not considering taking profits.

BTC's first key pullback level is around 113000. I want to emphasize again that I am firmly optimistic about the subsequent trend. A pullback is an opportunity. I only play short-term contracts, setting profit-taking and stop-loss levels. Everyone must pay attention and not blindly follow the trend!

It has been two weeks since 1011, and during these two weeks, my position has changed significantly. Let me report to everyone!

Started with $200,000, now $260,000, a return of 30%
Breakdown: Contract profit of $50,000, net profit of $10,000 from the 'mad dog' (so embarrassing)

The overall contract strategy is currently positive, recognizing trends and using timely take-profit and stop-loss strategies, I am quite satisfied with the win rate at the moment.

I'm still a novice in the 'mad dog' area, will continue to work hard. Today U402 increased 30 times, very comfortable, but unfortunately bought too little...

I have a unique trading system, and as long as I strictly follow it, the win rate will increase by at least 80%.

The reason I kept losing before was that I wanted to take shortcuts, to follow the trend, thinking that as long as the trend remained unchanged, everything would be fine. Therefore, I didn't take profits or cut losses. As a result, the trend didn't change; it was just the artificial 1011 that left me bankrupt. I've learned my lesson!

Moving forward, I won't get caught up in whether the trend is intact; I will focus solely on profits. Everything is about making money, accumulating small amounts to achieve more!

I have faced multiple liquidations and returned to the peak many times; I believe this time will be no exception...

What has passed must be let go of, start anew, with a mindset of returning to zero!

As long as the market is good these two months, I will have the chance to earn it back. I hope the brothers affected by 1011 can regain their strength soon, and we can meet at the peak.

Every day I use the money earned from contracts to make up for the losses from trading dogs!

I really am sick, when I focus on contracts I lose on contracts, when I focus on dogs, I lose on dogs……

But the time for me to make big money should be coming soon, the market in November is brewing, the main upward trend is about to arrive!

Shanzhai MEME has no value at all and will eventually go to zero.

This is a liquidity game; once the liquidity exits, it should end, unless there is a second wave, but the possibility is mostly low.

Buy when no one is interested and sell when there is a lot of noise.

If there is a chance for a second wave, then buy when no one is interested, and if not, you must sell when there is a lot of noise. Never chase the market out of FOMO, and don’t try to bottom-fish when there is no second opportunity, or it will surely end badly!

This is my profound realization after losing everything to zero!

Trump said I don't know CZ

But they all say CZ is a good person and has been persecuted, so I have pardoned him...

From the 4H and daily perspective, BTC has shown obvious signs of bottoming out in the past week. It has now broken through the downward trend line, and with the interest rate cut at the end of the month being almost certain, November is expected to welcome another wave of market movement!

The key point is whether the weekly chart can successfully repair to the upper key position in the next two weeks. Based on past experience, there is a high probability of market movement at the end of the year.

From the K-line trend, after reaching a high point in July, it has been fluctuating around 110,000 for nearly three months without any significant market movement. Given this, there should be a wave at the end of the year. Currently, we are waiting for a direction amid repeated fluctuations; if it breaks through smoothly, 13-15 will come in the blink of an eye.

A long bull market, whether slow or fast, will eventually arrive sooner or later. I believe that day will come much faster than I imagine!

You always shout that the bull market has left, but why do I not even know that the bull has not come? If the bull has not come, how can we talk about it leaving?

Talking about the bull market leaving is because of the cyclical time node, because it has once again broken through its ATH and has been oscillating at a high level. If we shout that the bull market has left just because of this, it would be too arbitrary.

If we extend the timeline, then I believe the bull market has actually started since October 2023. At that time, it was the main upward wave, with BTC rising from 25,000 all the way to 110,000, an increase of over four times. However, in the past year, BTC seems to have been consolidating at a high level and has not shown a main upward wave trend. If you say the bull market has left, then perhaps it left a year ago. From this perspective, it's unreasonable to say that the key positions of the bull and bear cycles do not have a main upward wave, which suggests that this cycle theory seems to have failed.

Since that's the case, how can we talk about the bull having left? Perhaps, this round of the bull and bear cycle has already failed. This cycle is characterized by a slow and steady rise in the long bull market, and we can no longer simply apply cyclical theory. Adding in interest rate cuts, halting tapering, tariff agreements, and easing geopolitical conflicts, there may be more to look forward to in the future.

I believe that after BTC goes through ETF, its subsequent trend should be more in line with gold. Here, let’s review the overall trend of gold after its ETF was introduced.

After the introduction of the gold ETF in 2005, gold prices showed a volatile upward trend that year, and in the following years, there was a significant rise.

The specific trend is as follows: In 2005: On February 10, the international gold price was $411.50 per ounce, then it climbed all the way up, reaching $447.30 per ounce on March 11, an increase of 8.70%. In the second half of the year, gold prices fluctuated, rebounding from $414.00 per ounce on June 2 to $443.60 per ounce on June 24. On October 12, the international gold price reached a highest point in 17 years at $480.25 per ounce, dropping to a seven-week low of $455.00 per ounce on November 4, and then rising again to $486.80 per ounce on November 17, setting a new high. On November 29, the international gold price broke through the $500.00 per ounce barrier, rising to $541.00 per ounce on December 12.

From 2006 to 2011: During the period from 2006 to 2011, gold prices generally showed a significant upward trend. In 2008, affected by the global financial crisis, the gold ETF holdings surged by 300%, and gold prices also soared accordingly. By 2011, gold prices reached around $1920 per ounce, showing a significant increase compared to 2005.

Play boldly when there is a market
Don't play when there is no market
Be cautious when there is intermittent market

It's the same with playing memes, the same with fakes, and even more so with contracts!

Remember not to charge blindly, don't chase after rising prices or panic sell, always keep an eye on it, otherwise, you may repeatedly deplete your capital and end up with less and less, and in the end, you'll find that when the market comes, your capital is gone...

Why do I still firmly believe that the bull market is not over even after experiencing two major crashes?

I won't repeat the points I've made before; you can check my previous updates. Another point supporting my view is that perhaps the main upward trend of the bull market we think we know has never started, which is abnormal according to past rhythms.

A year ago, the ATH of BTC was 109800, this time it is 126200 and fluctuating around the 110000 mark, which means it is consolidating at a high level near the previous high.

If BTC has only increased by 15% compared to the previous ATH, what kind of bull market is this? At most, it has just been a wide fluctuation over the past year.

And when consolidating at a high level near the ATH, there are only three possible outcomes: the first is a top turning bearish, the second is a sideways market, and the third is moving towards a main upward trend after consolidation. Everyone has their own judgment, but I still firmly believe there will be one more big wave.

Another reason is that this year does not seem to have the typical bull market we have seen in the past. Strictly speaking, there has only been one wave since the beginning of the year, which is the market from mid-April to around July for three months, and since then, it has been in wide fluctuations. It has been fluctuating for over three months now, and the bull market at the end of the year has not yet started. During this period, it has been fluctuating; since it has not started, how can we talk about a bull turning into a bear? Where has there been such a bull turning into a bear in history? Moreover, there are still policy expectations in play.

I believe that the main upward trend of this big cycle has not yet started, whether early or late, though it may be delayed, it will arrive. Be patient and wait; if you fear a bear market, manage your position well. Currently, I am operating with half of my position, treating it rationally and leaving myself some room.

110,000 comrades, even after the precise strike of 922 1011

My viewpoint has never changed...

The main upward wave has not started; this is the process of a long bull slowly rising!

From the 4H perspective, BTC has already hit the bottom and is breaking through the downtrend line. Next, we can expect a rebound or even the start of a main upward trend!

November is highly anticipated, with continuous interest rate cuts and Powell stating that the reduction of the balance sheet will stop in a few months. This will release significant liquidity into the market. At the same time, the China-U.S. tariff war is expected to reach a handshake agreement. Historically (excluding bear markets), the end of the year has seen major market movements, and this time there is no reason for me not to believe in its arrival.