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唯一途径。公众号：诸葛说加密
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Btc Today's Analysis (1.14)
Yesterday's analysis pointed out that the four-hour chart has broken the low of 91000, which means that the daily downtrend structure we have been emphasizing has formed. At the same time, the daily up/down structure within the weekly downtrend structure has also been completed, thus confirming the weekly pullback downtrend structure. From an overall structural perspective, the market may welcome a rebound at any time. However, 96000 is still a key point that needs to be closely monitored in the past two days. If it can effectively break through this point and pull back above 89100 without breaking it, it is expected to initiate a major upward wave.
However, it is important to note that the strength of this weekly pullback is relatively weak, and it has not even touched the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.38. Additionally, there are no panic selling signals at the daily level. Therefore, a relatively simple observation strategy can be adopted: focus on the resistance level above at 96000 and the support level below at 89100.
However, it is important to note that the strength of this weekly pullback is relatively weak, and it has not even touched the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.38. Additionally, there are no panic selling signals at the daily level. Therefore, a relatively simple observation strategy can be adopted: focus on the resistance level above at 96000 and the support level below at 89100.
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Bitcoin Q1 2025 Trend Forecast: Key Factors and Risk Analysis
In early 2025, the price trend of Bitcoin is attracting significant attention, with mixed market predictions. Some believe that Bitcoin may reach a high of $128,000 by the end of February, while others are more cautious, predicting a drop to $74,000. This divergence mainly stems from one key factor: the cryptocurrency policy of the Trump administration.
Trump's Policy: Opportunities and Challenges
After Trump took office, his policy attitude toward cryptocurrencies will directly affect the market trend of Bitcoin. If Trump fulfills his campaign promises and adopts policies favorable to the development of cryptocurrencies, such as easing regulations and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, it will greatly boost market confidence and drive the price of Bitcoin to rise significantly.
Trump's Policy: Opportunities and Challenges
After Trump took office, his policy attitude toward cryptocurrencies will directly affect the market trend of Bitcoin. If Trump fulfills his campaign promises and adopts policies favorable to the development of cryptocurrencies, such as easing regulations and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, it will greatly boost market confidence and drive the price of Bitcoin to rise significantly.
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Market Counter-Reaction Under Strong Non-Farm Data: Interpreting the Logic Behind It
Recently released U.S. non-farm employment data showed strong performance, significantly exceeding market expectations. Logically, this should be seen as a positive signal for economic improvement, which would benefit the stock market and other financial markets. However, the actual market performance showed a divergence, not rising as expected, but instead showing a downward trend. There is a deeper logic behind this phenomenon:
* Change in expectations and monetary policy: The strong non-farm data reflects a robust U.S. economic fundamental, which means that in the short term, the Federal Reserve may not need to take more aggressive easing measures, such as rapid large-scale interest rate cuts. Previously, the market widely expected the Federal Reserve to adopt an accommodative monetary policy, which equates to injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market (commonly referred to as 'flooding the market'). In an environment of abundant liquidity, funds often chase high-quality assets that can outperform inflation, thus driving up asset prices. However, the strong economic data has weakened market expectations for large-scale monetary easing, leading to a change in the flow of funds, which may be one of the reasons for the market decline. In other words, the market is not reacting negatively to positive economic fundamentals but is responding to the failure of the 'flooding the market' expectations.
* Change in expectations and monetary policy: The strong non-farm data reflects a robust U.S. economic fundamental, which means that in the short term, the Federal Reserve may not need to take more aggressive easing measures, such as rapid large-scale interest rate cuts. Previously, the market widely expected the Federal Reserve to adopt an accommodative monetary policy, which equates to injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market (commonly referred to as 'flooding the market'). In an environment of abundant liquidity, funds often chase high-quality assets that can outperform inflation, thus driving up asset prices. However, the strong economic data has weakened market expectations for large-scale monetary easing, leading to a change in the flow of funds, which may be one of the reasons for the market decline. In other words, the market is not reacting negatively to positive economic fundamentals but is responding to the failure of the 'flooding the market' expectations.
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Recently, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has shown a sideways oscillation pattern, with intense market competition between bulls and bears. Although there are rumors that some large traders (commonly referred to as 'main forces') have started to position themselves for long positions, considering the overall market environment and technical analysis, we believe there is still a downside risk in the future market, especially the potential for a correction in the latter half of the month.
From a macro perspective, this may bring uncertainty to the cryptocurrency market. Technically, the fact that the price of Ethereum has consistently failed to effectively break through key resistance levels indicates that the selling pressure from above remains heavy.
It is worth noting that the current market sentiment is quite complex. On one hand, some investors may be inclined to buy on dips due to the influence of rumors about 'main forces going long'; on the other hand, sideways consolidation is often a precursor to a trend change. If negative catalysts appear in the market, it could easily trigger a rapid decline. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of a 'downward spike' occurring in the evening or early morning hours, meaning a rapid price drop that touches lower support levels and then quickly rebounds.
Considering various factors, we believe the following price levels are worth paying close attention to:
* First support level: around $3200, as this is a recent area of high trading volume, and a drop below this level could trigger further selling.
* Second support level: around $3149, this price level is [can be explained based on chart analysis regarding the importance of this level, such as previous lows, Fibonacci retracement levels, etc.].
* Strong support level: around $3095, if the price drops to this area, we need to be wary of a greater correction risk.
$ETH
From a macro perspective, this may bring uncertainty to the cryptocurrency market. Technically, the fact that the price of Ethereum has consistently failed to effectively break through key resistance levels indicates that the selling pressure from above remains heavy.
It is worth noting that the current market sentiment is quite complex. On one hand, some investors may be inclined to buy on dips due to the influence of rumors about 'main forces going long'; on the other hand, sideways consolidation is often a precursor to a trend change. If negative catalysts appear in the market, it could easily trigger a rapid decline. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of a 'downward spike' occurring in the evening or early morning hours, meaning a rapid price drop that touches lower support levels and then quickly rebounds.
Considering various factors, we believe the following price levels are worth paying close attention to:
* First support level: around $3200, as this is a recent area of high trading volume, and a drop below this level could trigger further selling.
* Second support level: around $3149, this price level is [can be explained based on chart analysis regarding the importance of this level, such as previous lows, Fibonacci retracement levels, etc.].
* Strong support level: around $3095, if the price drops to this area, we need to be wary of a greater correction risk.
$ETH
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Dogecoin Deflation Plan Ignites the Market: Will the Future Be Rewritten?
Recently, Dogecoin co-founder Billy Markus released a shocking message on social media: Dogecoin is expected to achieve deflation through community consensus. This news quickly sparked heated discussions in the cryptocurrency circle.
It is well known that Dogecoin has always been characterized by its unlimited total supply and fixed annual inflation rate. However, Marcus proposed that by initiating a proposal on GitHub and gaining support from the community and miners, Dogecoin could achieve deflation. He even compared Dogecoin to Bitcoin, pointing out that their design philosophies are very similar, with only some parameters differing.
It is well known that Dogecoin has always been characterized by its unlimited total supply and fixed annual inflation rate. However, Marcus proposed that by initiating a proposal on GitHub and gaining support from the community and miners, Dogecoin could achieve deflation. He even compared Dogecoin to Bitcoin, pointing out that their design philosophies are very similar, with only some parameters differing.
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ETH Technical Analysis: Inverted V Shape Emerges, Market Outlook Uncertain
Recently, the price trend of ETH has shown a clear inverted V shape, attracting widespread attention in the market.
The emergence of this shape suggests that bearish forces may gain the upper hand. However, as the 20-day moving average remains on an upward trend, and the RSI indicator has not yet fully fallen into the oversold area, the reliability of this shape still requires further observation.
Bearish Perspective:
* Heavy Pressure: The ETH price is currently being suppressed by the 20-day moving average around $3435, and the MACD indicator shows that momentum is gradually weakening, with bearish sentiment dominating.
* Downside Risk: If the price breaks below the 20-day moving average and further falls below the neckline position, it may accelerate downwards to seek support around $2825.
Bullish Perspective:
* Hope for Reversal: Although the shape is bearish, bulls still have a chance to reverse the situation. If the price can strongly break above the 20-day moving average and hold above this level, a rebound trend may begin, targeting $3744.
* Key Support: The 20-day moving average is the focal point of contention between bulls and bears; once breached, the bears will further expand their advantage.
Trading Strategy:
* Conservative Strategy: Wait for a clear breakout or breakdown of the 20-day moving average before taking corresponding trading actions; stop-loss and take-profit orders can be set to control risk.
* Aggressive Strategy: For short-term traders, attempting a light position near the 20-day moving average on price pullbacks can be considered, but close attention to market changes is necessary.
Summary:
ETH is currently at a critical turning point, with market sentiment being complex and variable. Investors should closely monitor the breakout situation of the 20-day moving average and the neckline position, and make reasonable trading decisions based on comprehensive judgments with other technical indicators.
$ETH
Recently, the price trend of ETH has shown a clear inverted V shape, attracting widespread attention in the market.
The emergence of this shape suggests that bearish forces may gain the upper hand. However, as the 20-day moving average remains on an upward trend, and the RSI indicator has not yet fully fallen into the oversold area, the reliability of this shape still requires further observation.
Bearish Perspective:
* Heavy Pressure: The ETH price is currently being suppressed by the 20-day moving average around $3435, and the MACD indicator shows that momentum is gradually weakening, with bearish sentiment dominating.
* Downside Risk: If the price breaks below the 20-day moving average and further falls below the neckline position, it may accelerate downwards to seek support around $2825.
Bullish Perspective:
* Hope for Reversal: Although the shape is bearish, bulls still have a chance to reverse the situation. If the price can strongly break above the 20-day moving average and hold above this level, a rebound trend may begin, targeting $3744.
* Key Support: The 20-day moving average is the focal point of contention between bulls and bears; once breached, the bears will further expand their advantage.
Trading Strategy:
* Conservative Strategy: Wait for a clear breakout or breakdown of the 20-day moving average before taking corresponding trading actions; stop-loss and take-profit orders can be set to control risk.
* Aggressive Strategy: For short-term traders, attempting a light position near the 20-day moving average on price pullbacks can be considered, but close attention to market changes is necessary.
Summary:
ETH is currently at a critical turning point, with market sentiment being complex and variable. Investors should closely monitor the breakout situation of the 20-day moving average and the neckline position, and make reasonable trading decisions based on comprehensive judgments with other technical indicators.
$ETH
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The US non-farm payrolls data for December significantly exceeded market expectations, triggering a chain reaction in the global capital market.
The market had hoped that the US dollar would temporarily pull back, but this hope was dashed. Data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in December increased by 256,000, far higher than the expected 165,000, and even exceeded the 210,000 in the previous month. This shows that the US economy has not shown signs of slowing down, but has shown an accelerated growth trend, and the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut has been further delayed. Financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have adjusted their forecasts for the timing of interest rate cuts.
After the data was released, the US dollar index continued to climb, once hitting a high of 109.9, and is expected to break through the 110-point mark in the short term, setting a new high in recent years. Against the backdrop of a stronger US dollar, global asset markets are generally under pressure, including the US stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, cryptocurrency and commodities.
The current market performance is closely related to the recent international political situation, especially the tough stance of the United States in the economy and military, which may create conditions for the return of an important political figure. Before January 20, the market may face significant fluctuations, and then it may gradually recover from the lows to welcome the new round of market brought by the return of the politician.
As far as the cryptocurrency market is concerned, it may experience relatively large fluctuations from now to January 20. Although some assets have rebounded from oversold levels, the market outlook in the short term remains unclear. Whether cryptocurrencies can develop independently in the future is worthy of close attention by investors. During this period, risk and position management are particularly important to prevent major losses during the market adjustment period.
$BTC $ETH #非农数据大幅超出预期
The market had hoped that the US dollar would temporarily pull back, but this hope was dashed. Data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in December increased by 256,000, far higher than the expected 165,000, and even exceeded the 210,000 in the previous month. This shows that the US economy has not shown signs of slowing down, but has shown an accelerated growth trend, and the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut has been further delayed. Financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have adjusted their forecasts for the timing of interest rate cuts.
After the data was released, the US dollar index continued to climb, once hitting a high of 109.9, and is expected to break through the 110-point mark in the short term, setting a new high in recent years. Against the backdrop of a stronger US dollar, global asset markets are generally under pressure, including the US stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, cryptocurrency and commodities.
The current market performance is closely related to the recent international political situation, especially the tough stance of the United States in the economy and military, which may create conditions for the return of an important political figure. Before January 20, the market may face significant fluctuations, and then it may gradually recover from the lows to welcome the new round of market brought by the return of the politician.
As far as the cryptocurrency market is concerned, it may experience relatively large fluctuations from now to January 20. Although some assets have rebounded from oversold levels, the market outlook in the short term remains unclear. Whether cryptocurrencies can develop independently in the future is worthy of close attention by investors. During this period, risk and position management are particularly important to prevent major losses during the market adjustment period.
$BTC $ETH #非农数据大幅超出预期
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On the eve of the transfer of power, the US government's large-scale sale of Bitcoin has caused controversy
With only 11 days left before Trump's inauguration, the US government suddenly announced that it would sell nearly 70,000 bitcoins that had been seized and managed by the FBI. The sale was allegedly authorized by a federal judge starting December 30, 2024. At current market prices, the bitcoins are worth as much as $6.5 billion. The move sparked widespread speculation about the motives behind it, with some believing it was a strategic move by the outgoing government against its successor.
It is reported that the US government currently holds about 200,000 publicly known bitcoins, making it one of the largest bitcoin holders in the world. If the Biden administration (or its behind-the-scenes team) chooses to sell all of these bitcoins in the remaining ten days, it will severely limit the possibility of the new government holding the same amount of bitcoins in the future.
It is reported that the US government currently holds about 200,000 publicly known bitcoins, making it one of the largest bitcoin holders in the world. If the Biden administration (or its behind-the-scenes team) chooses to sell all of these bitcoins in the remaining ten days, it will severely limit the possibility of the new government holding the same amount of bitcoins in the future.
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The cryptocurrency market may face violent fluctuations tonight! Key US employment data is about to be released
Cryptocurrency investors please note: At 21:30 Beijing time on January 10, 2025, the United States will release the unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data for December. Both data are regarded as important indicators of the health of the US economy, and their results may have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.
The market generally expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2% in December. If the actual unemployment rate is lower than expected, it indicates that the US job market is strong and the economic situation is good, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy, such as raising interest rates. In this case, funds may flow from risky assets such as cryptocurrencies to traditional financial markets, causing the price of the currency to fall.
On the contrary, if the unemployment rate is higher than expected, it may suggest that the US economy is facing downward pressure, and the Federal Reserve may adopt a more relaxed monetary policy, which is good for the cryptocurrency market.
At the same time, the market expects that the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls will increase by 160,000 in December, lower than the previous value of 227,000. If the actual data exceeds expectations, it means that employment growth exceeded expectations and the US economy performed well, which may trigger market concerns about the Fed's further tightening of monetary policy, thereby putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market. On the contrary, if the data is lower than expected, it may indicate a weak job market and insufficient momentum for economic recovery, which may prompt the Fed to maintain or adopt a looser monetary policy, bringing potential upward momentum to the cryptocurrency market.
At present, both the long and short sides of the market remain cautious and wait for the data to be released. It is foreseeable that the cryptocurrency market may usher in significant fluctuations after the data is released. Investors should pay close attention to the data release and formulate corresponding trading strategies in advance to cope with potential market risks.
$BTC
#加密市场回调
Cryptocurrency investors please note: At 21:30 Beijing time on January 10, 2025, the United States will release the unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data for December. Both data are regarded as important indicators of the health of the US economy, and their results may have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.
The market generally expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2% in December. If the actual unemployment rate is lower than expected, it indicates that the US job market is strong and the economic situation is good, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy, such as raising interest rates. In this case, funds may flow from risky assets such as cryptocurrencies to traditional financial markets, causing the price of the currency to fall.
On the contrary, if the unemployment rate is higher than expected, it may suggest that the US economy is facing downward pressure, and the Federal Reserve may adopt a more relaxed monetary policy, which is good for the cryptocurrency market.
At the same time, the market expects that the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls will increase by 160,000 in December, lower than the previous value of 227,000. If the actual data exceeds expectations, it means that employment growth exceeded expectations and the US economy performed well, which may trigger market concerns about the Fed's further tightening of monetary policy, thereby putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market. On the contrary, if the data is lower than expected, it may indicate a weak job market and insufficient momentum for economic recovery, which may prompt the Fed to maintain or adopt a looser monetary policy, bringing potential upward momentum to the cryptocurrency market.
At present, both the long and short sides of the market remain cautious and wait for the data to be released. It is foreseeable that the cryptocurrency market may usher in significant fluctuations after the data is released. Investors should pay close attention to the data release and formulate corresponding trading strategies in advance to cope with potential market risks.
$BTC
#加密市场回调
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This morning, USD0++ had a big problem. The price suddenly collapsed. The reason was that Usual changed the rules. The 1:1 redemption promised before was no longer valid.
Now there are two ways to exchange USD0++: one is to deduct part of your profit, but still exchange it at 1:1; the other is to exchange it directly at the price of 0.87, which means a loss of 13%.
Now those big investors who have a lot of USD0++ are panicking and selling them quickly. The price of USD0++ dropped to 0.946 in an instant.
What's more, this 0.87 floor price is similar to the liquidation line of 0.86 on Morpho. It feels like a reminder to those big guys who use revolving loans: "Be careful!"
Now everyone is watching how Usual will deal with the 13% price difference next week.
If the deducted profit is not much, such as only 0.5%, then USD0++ may soon return to 0.995.
But no matter what, this is actually a good thing for USUAL and USUALx holders - after all, USUAL has fallen a lot (down 58%), and this rule change may make it rise again.
However, Usual's operation this time was a bit too hasty. It would have been better if they had told everyone in advance so that everyone could be mentally prepared.
$USUAL
Now there are two ways to exchange USD0++: one is to deduct part of your profit, but still exchange it at 1:1; the other is to exchange it directly at the price of 0.87, which means a loss of 13%.
Now those big investors who have a lot of USD0++ are panicking and selling them quickly. The price of USD0++ dropped to 0.946 in an instant.
What's more, this 0.87 floor price is similar to the liquidation line of 0.86 on Morpho. It feels like a reminder to those big guys who use revolving loans: "Be careful!"
Now everyone is watching how Usual will deal with the 13% price difference next week.
If the deducted profit is not much, such as only 0.5%, then USD0++ may soon return to 0.995.
But no matter what, this is actually a good thing for USUAL and USUALx holders - after all, USUAL has fallen a lot (down 58%), and this rule change may make it rise again.
However, Usual's operation this time was a bit too hasty. It would have been better if they had told everyone in advance so that everyone could be mentally prepared.
$USUAL
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U.S. Government Sells Bitcoin, Causing Price to Drop
Recently, the U.S. government announced the sale of 69,370 Bitcoins originating from the 'Silk Road', with a total value exceeding $6.7 billion. This move immediately triggered severe turbulence in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin prices dropped sharply, once falling below the $93,000 mark, leading to mass liquidation of leveraged long positions.
It is worth noting that this sell-off occurred on the eve of Trump's inauguration, contrasting sharply with his previous advocacy for establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which has heightened market uncertainty, increased risk aversion among investors, and led to a mass exit of short-term holders.
It is worth noting that this sell-off occurred on the eve of Trump's inauguration, contrasting sharply with his previous advocacy for establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which has heightened market uncertainty, increased risk aversion among investors, and led to a mass exit of short-term holders.
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Recently, the price of USUAL has dropped significantly, raising concerns in the market about its potential to go to zero. Here, we find it necessary to clarify: USUAL will not go to zero.
Its stablecoin USD0 has a mandatory insurance mechanism, which can effectively resist the risks of price fluctuations. At the same time, USUAL's strategy of investing USD0 in U.S. Treasury bonds can continuously generate returns, fundamentally safeguarding its value.
In light of USUAL's recent market performance, we advise investors who have incurred significant losses to operate cautiously and avoid blind selling. Holding long-term and earning interest is a viable strategic choice. Interest income can, to some extent, dilute investment costs.
USUAL itself does not have a risk of going to zero, and investors may consider trading time for space. We remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the market, and if favorable factors emerge in the future, USUAL still has profit potential.
Its stablecoin USD0 has a mandatory insurance mechanism, which can effectively resist the risks of price fluctuations. At the same time, USUAL's strategy of investing USD0 in U.S. Treasury bonds can continuously generate returns, fundamentally safeguarding its value.
In light of USUAL's recent market performance, we advise investors who have incurred significant losses to operate cautiously and avoid blind selling. Holding long-term and earning interest is a viable strategic choice. Interest income can, to some extent, dilute investment costs.
USUAL itself does not have a risk of going to zero, and investors may consider trading time for space. We remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the market, and if favorable factors emerge in the future, USUAL still has profit potential.
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Once the price of Bitcoin falls below the key support level of $92,000, it is expected to trigger forced liquidations of longs amounting to up to $1.15 billion.
Conversely, if the price successfully breaks through the resistance line of $96,000, it could lead to the liquidation of approximately $1.024 billion in short positions. The current price is nearing the lower range, and investors should not panic excessively due to short-term declines and misjudge the end of the bull market.
Looking back at the previous market cycle, Bitcoin's price retraced from a high of $108,366 to around $91,500, when the market was generally optimistic about breaking through $110,000.
However, when the price hit $91,500, market sentiment turned pessimistic, fearing a drop below $90,000. But ultimately, the price rebounded to around $102,700.
Recently, the price has again dipped to around $92,500, indicating that the market adjustment is nearing its end. Additionally, from a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin's long-term value remains solid. It is advisable for the bullish camp to maintain confidence; the dawn of victory is approaching.
For Bitcoin, consider adding positions when the price retraces to around $92,000. For Ethereum, if the price falls back to around $3,200, it may also be worth considering increasing positions.
$BTC
$ETH
Conversely, if the price successfully breaks through the resistance line of $96,000, it could lead to the liquidation of approximately $1.024 billion in short positions. The current price is nearing the lower range, and investors should not panic excessively due to short-term declines and misjudge the end of the bull market.
Looking back at the previous market cycle, Bitcoin's price retraced from a high of $108,366 to around $91,500, when the market was generally optimistic about breaking through $110,000.
However, when the price hit $91,500, market sentiment turned pessimistic, fearing a drop below $90,000. But ultimately, the price rebounded to around $102,700.
Recently, the price has again dipped to around $92,500, indicating that the market adjustment is nearing its end. Additionally, from a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin's long-term value remains solid. It is advisable for the bullish camp to maintain confidence; the dawn of victory is approaching.
For Bitcoin, consider adding positions when the price retraces to around $92,000. For Ethereum, if the price falls back to around $3,200, it may also be worth considering increasing positions.
$BTC
$ETH
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Rational Examination of $ACT: Investment Should Avoid Blindly Chasing Up and Selling Down
Recently, the price fluctuation of $ACT has drawn market attention, with most people only focusing on its decline from hundreds of times its historical high to the current 0.3 yuan. However, we need to take a more comprehensive view of this phenomenon. Take Pepe as an example; its price also experienced a significant pullback, shrinking to one-seventh of its peak.
Some investors who lack a deep understanding of the market often become arrogant based on just a few simple guesses, even claiming to surpass Buffett, which is clearly absurd.
The primary market and secondary market each have their own operational logic. One of the important roles of the secondary market is to help us filter out higher quality projects that are more sustainable.
Some investors who lack a deep understanding of the market often become arrogant based on just a few simple guesses, even claiming to surpass Buffett, which is clearly absurd.
The primary market and secondary market each have their own operational logic. One of the important roles of the secondary market is to help us filter out higher quality projects that are more sustainable.
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Fed Officials' Speeches Draw Attention, Cryptocurrency Market Awaits Guidance
On the evening of January 9, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is closely watching the movements of two key figures from the U.S. Federal Reserve (referred to as the "Fed"). At 22:00 that evening, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Harker, who has a vote in the 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), will deliver a speech at an event regarding the economic outlook for 2025.
Shortly after, just five minutes later, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Collins, who also has a vote in the 2025 FOMC, articulated his views on the economic outlook. According to Jinshi Data, the significance of both speeches reached three and a half stars, indicating that they could have a significant impact on the market.
Shortly after, just five minutes later, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Collins, who also has a vote in the 2025 FOMC, articulated his views on the economic outlook. According to Jinshi Data, the significance of both speeches reached three and a half stars, indicating that they could have a significant impact on the market.
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ETH Today Analysis
Has the recent significant market decline left some novice investors feeling confused? Here, I once again emphasize the importance of controlling risks, especially avoiding blindly chasing prices. I have reminded you many times before not to go long easily.
The market is changing rapidly, and trying to buy at the bottom is likely to face greater risks. Since the day before yesterday, I have continued to emphasize that there is a risk of a market correction.
Before yesterday's close, I expected the price to pull back to around 3400 to seek short opportunities, but due to the weak bullish power in the market, it failed to effectively reach this price. Currently, the market has fallen below the key support level of 3310 and is moving towards 3220 (which is also the downside target I shared with the community yesterday). This area may be an important liquidation line for some investors.
The market is changing rapidly, and trying to buy at the bottom is likely to face greater risks. Since the day before yesterday, I have continued to emphasize that there is a risk of a market correction.
Before yesterday's close, I expected the price to pull back to around 3400 to seek short opportunities, but due to the weak bullish power in the market, it failed to effectively reach this price. Currently, the market has fallen below the key support level of 3310 and is moving towards 3220 (which is also the downside target I shared with the community yesterday). This area may be an important liquidation line for some investors.
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Discussion on the PEPE coin "halving"
According to the news released by the official account of PEPE coin named Pepecoin (PEP) on the X platform (formerly Twitter), PEPE coin is expected to be "halved" in about the next 28 days.
"Halving" refers to the halving of the block reward of a certain cryptocurrency, which usually leads to a slowdown in the issuance of new coins, which may affect its supply and demand relationship. "Halving" is generally considered an important event in the cryptocurrency market and may have a certain impact on prices, but the specific influencing factors are complex and need to be considered comprehensively, including market environment and other factors.
If the PEPE coin is really "halved", it will have an important impact on all holders and will also be the focus of many holders. This may have a certain positive impact on the PEPE coin and other meme coins, and may even lead other meme coins to follow suit. The future trend of the PEPE coin is worth paying attention to. The authenticity of this news needs further verification, and readers are advised to search for relevant information on the X platform for confirmation.
"Halving" refers to the halving of the block reward of a certain cryptocurrency, which usually leads to a slowdown in the issuance of new coins, which may affect its supply and demand relationship. "Halving" is generally considered an important event in the cryptocurrency market and may have a certain impact on prices, but the specific influencing factors are complex and need to be considered comprehensively, including market environment and other factors.
If the PEPE coin is really "halved", it will have an important impact on all holders and will also be the focus of many holders. This may have a certain positive impact on the PEPE coin and other meme coins, and may even lead other meme coins to follow suit. The future trend of the PEPE coin is worth paying attention to. The authenticity of this news needs further verification, and readers are advised to search for relevant information on the X platform for confirmation.
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Elon Musk's X platform may launch a payment function "X Money", which has triggered heated discussions in the market
Can Dogecoin become the preferred payment method? Every move of Musk has attracted much attention. The launch of "X Money" quickly detonated the market, especially Dogecoin (DOGE), which has become a popular payment candidate. Does this mean that Dogecoin will return to its peak?
The focus is on several potential highlights of X Money:
* X Money aims to integrate multiple payment functions, allowing users to seamlessly pay, transfer, trade, and even small rewards on the X platform, thereby subverting the traditional payment experience.
* Based on Musk's long-term favor for Dogecoin, the market generally believes that DOGE is very likely to become the core payment option of X Money, realizing its transformation from a "meme coin" to a practical cryptocurrency.
* In addition to cryptocurrency payments, X Money may also expand more functions based on Web3 and blockchain technology, such as NFT purchases, on-chain transactions, etc., which may become the focus of future development.
The impact on the market is:
* Once the news is confirmed, the market sentiment of Dogecoin will further rise, which may lead to large short-term price fluctuations, but it is also necessary to be vigilant about high risks.
* The success of X Money may promote the popularity of cryptocurrency payments and may lead other social platforms to follow suit, thereby accelerating the mainstream application of cryptocurrency payments.
* This will also intensify market competition. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and even emerging Layer 2 solutions, may participate in this competition, thus reshaping the market landscape.
My opinion is:
* If Dogecoin is eventually established as a payment option, it will be a major event in the cryptocurrency field and may trigger a round of rising prices in the short term.
* From a technical point of view, however, whether the processing speed and transaction costs of Dogecoin can support large-scale applications remains to be further verified.
* Investors should pay close attention to the latest developments of X Money and the price fluctuations of related cryptocurrencies in order to make wise investment decisions.
$DOGE
Can Dogecoin become the preferred payment method? Every move of Musk has attracted much attention. The launch of "X Money" quickly detonated the market, especially Dogecoin (DOGE), which has become a popular payment candidate. Does this mean that Dogecoin will return to its peak?
The focus is on several potential highlights of X Money:
* X Money aims to integrate multiple payment functions, allowing users to seamlessly pay, transfer, trade, and even small rewards on the X platform, thereby subverting the traditional payment experience.
* Based on Musk's long-term favor for Dogecoin, the market generally believes that DOGE is very likely to become the core payment option of X Money, realizing its transformation from a "meme coin" to a practical cryptocurrency.
* In addition to cryptocurrency payments, X Money may also expand more functions based on Web3 and blockchain technology, such as NFT purchases, on-chain transactions, etc., which may become the focus of future development.
The impact on the market is:
* Once the news is confirmed, the market sentiment of Dogecoin will further rise, which may lead to large short-term price fluctuations, but it is also necessary to be vigilant about high risks.
* The success of X Money may promote the popularity of cryptocurrency payments and may lead other social platforms to follow suit, thereby accelerating the mainstream application of cryptocurrency payments.
* This will also intensify market competition. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and even emerging Layer 2 solutions, may participate in this competition, thus reshaping the market landscape.
My opinion is:
* If Dogecoin is eventually established as a payment option, it will be a major event in the cryptocurrency field and may trigger a round of rising prices in the short term.
* From a technical point of view, however, whether the processing speed and transaction costs of Dogecoin can support large-scale applications remains to be further verified.
* Investors should pay close attention to the latest developments of X Money and the price fluctuations of related cryptocurrencies in order to make wise investment decisions.
$DOGE
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Is Bitcoin over?
Bitcoin price is experiencing significant downward pressure after falling below the important support level of $100,000. However, based on the current technical analysis, I believe its downside is limited and we can start focusing on potential entry opportunities.
Around US$95,000 is exactly at the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 of the previous increase, which has a strong supporting effect. Although the correction is relatively large, it is still within a reasonable range. This area was also an important support and resistance transition area in the previous trend.
Therefore, consider opening a long position near this price. If the price rebounds to around $98,400, you may consider taking profits.
$BTC
Bitcoin price is experiencing significant downward pressure after falling below the important support level of $100,000. However, based on the current technical analysis, I believe its downside is limited and we can start focusing on potential entry opportunities.
Around US$95,000 is exactly at the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 of the previous increase, which has a strong supporting effect. Although the correction is relatively large, it is still within a reasonable range. This area was also an important support and resistance transition area in the previous trend.
Therefore, consider opening a long position near this price. If the price rebounds to around $98,400, you may consider taking profits.
$BTC
See original
The recent weakness in the cryptocurrency market is not due to its own inherent structural problems, but is closely related to the overall decline of the Nasdaq index.
This external shock rippled through the entire financial ecosystem, causing crypto assets to move lower in tandem with traditional tech stocks. Through in-depth analysis of on-chain data, it can be found that the main driving force of this round of decline came from the significant correction of Nasdaq, which severely hit market confidence and changed market dynamics.
As cryptocurrencies play an increasingly important role in the global financial system, their relevance to traditional financial markets is becoming increasingly close. When major stock indexes such as the Nasdaq suffer sharp declines, it often triggers widespread market panic, prompting investors to retreat from risky assets such as stocks and digital assets.
This massive selling pressure has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, although its intrinsic value has not fundamentally changed. In short, the cryptocurrency market is going through a storm caused by external factors, and investors need to maintain patience and a long-term investment perspective
$BTC
#加密市场回调
This external shock rippled through the entire financial ecosystem, causing crypto assets to move lower in tandem with traditional tech stocks. Through in-depth analysis of on-chain data, it can be found that the main driving force of this round of decline came from the significant correction of Nasdaq, which severely hit market confidence and changed market dynamics.
As cryptocurrencies play an increasingly important role in the global financial system, their relevance to traditional financial markets is becoming increasingly close. When major stock indexes such as the Nasdaq suffer sharp declines, it often triggers widespread market panic, prompting investors to retreat from risky assets such as stocks and digital assets.
This massive selling pressure has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, although its intrinsic value has not fundamentally changed. In short, the cryptocurrency market is going through a storm caused by external factors, and investors need to maintain patience and a long-term investment perspective
$BTC
#加密市场回调
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