乔阁部

A very paradoxical phenomenon: the cryptocurrency concept stocks in the US stock market and A-shares are rising like altcoins 📈, while the real altcoins in the crypto world are plummeting 📉. It's somewhat like the degree itself has become worthless, but properties in good school districts are still being speculated on.
What expectations does this reflect in the capital market? Will altcoins rise, or will concept stocks fall?

The counterfeit season index has reached its lowest level in two years.
Interestingly, the lowest values of this index in previous years are:
- June 2019
- June 2020
- July 2021
- June 2022
- June 2023
- June 2024
Now it is: June 25, it seems that there is some kind of pattern where the counterfeit season index hits new lows every mid-year, and it has been too long since the last counterfeit season.

Bloomberg's forecast predicts that the approval rate for most cryptocurrency spot ETFs will rise to 90% by 2025! This means that almost all applications are highly likely to be approved, but Sui and TRX may become exceptions due to timing issues.
In the future, there will be more and more micro-strategies and crypto concept stocks in the stock market, and the crypto space will gradually introduce stocks on the blockchain. The current liquidity in the crypto space is indeed too poor, and there is a real need to bring in some funds from the traditional market.

In this cycle, how long has the altcoin season been delayed?
🟦 = Bitcoin halving
🟩 = Days between halving and BTC.D correction
🟥 = Days between BTC.D and BTCUSD cycle peak
In the first two cycles, Bitcoin's dominance was maintained for 230-237 days before the altcoin season began, with the decline (altcoin season) lasting about 300 days. In this cycle, 426 days post-halving, BTC.D remains strong.
There are approximately 100 days left until the peak of the October cycle. Is this enough time for an altcoin season to lower BTC.D?

1️⃣Coinbase officially announces entry into the cryptocurrency stock market!
2️⃣Ondo quickly partners with Solana, Jupiter, and 1inch to form the "Stock on Chain Alliance" to accelerate its layout.
3️⃣Including the recently announced Bybit, over 10 exchanges/wallets are already working on or planning to tokenize US stocks!
✅If successful, the biggest beneficiaries should be SOL and BASE chains, as currently only these two public chains have sufficient performance and foundation.

Microstrategy for Altcoins? Altcoins are being recognized by the US stock market.
Including today’s official announcement of a massive $50 million purchase of HYPE as reserves for $EYEN, the US stock market has quietly formed five 'Altcoin version Microstrategy' companies:
$EYEN → HYPE version Microstrategy
$SRM → TRX version Microstrategy
$DFDV → SOL version Microstrategy
$SBET → ETH version Microstrategy
$MSTR → BTC Microstrategy
These five, along with stablecoin giant $Circle and trading platform $Coinbase, make up the hottest sector focus in the current US stock cryptocurrency market! Is the altcoin sector effect emerging?

When will the next peak and trough of Bitcoin arrive?
The Bitcoin H-Clock is a cyclical calendar model that has accurately predicted Bitcoin's market phases in previous cycles.
The model predicts that the upcoming cycle peak will occur on October 14, 2025, while the subsequent trough will be on October 26, 2026.
The calendar indicates that the peak will occur 542 days after the last halving, while the bottom will be reached 521 days before the next halving.

Will altcoin season come?
Bitcoin and altcoins are significantly positively correlated with the global 🌎 M2 money supply.
Altcoins have only started to significantly underperform Bitcoin this year; this gap will gradually close as the market evolves. Currently, the recovery of large-cap altcoins (ETH, SOL, TRX) has been confirmed and is underway, while mid and small-cap altcoins still need to wait.

Is it the season of Bitcoin or altcoins?
From a macro perspective, global liquidity continues to be released 📉➕ the US dollar index continues to decline 💵, which is positive for global risk assets. This is also why assets like US stocks, A-shares, gold, and Bitcoin are performing strongly at the moment.
Holding both Bitcoin and altcoins is a wise choice; Bitcoin is great, but in the medium term, altcoins may perform even better.

1️⃣ The price fluctuations of altcoins have not translated into an increase in altcoin inflows to exchanges, and there is not much new selling pressure in the market.
2️⃣ Before previous local peaks of altcoins, the inflow quantity of altcoins surged.
✅ At the current price, there is strong consensus on altcoin holdings and low willingness to sell; this indicator can also be used to monitor the seasonal peaks of altcoins.

Israel's strikes against Iran have triggered market risk aversion, but the volatility remains quite small.
Long-term holders have shown no signs of distribution, but rather have accumulated quite a bit of retail investor chips, indicating that Bitcoin is likely to see another wave of increases. 📈
At the same time, ETH staking data remains stable, and SOL whales also show no signs of distribution, while the consensus in the altcoin season is equally strong.

From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin still maintains a standard pattern similar to previous bull markets, with almost no obvious differences. A small-scale oscillation pullback is expected here, which may last more than a month.
Although there has been a decline, the on-chain and exchange transaction volumes for Bitcoin are very low, and there are no signs of major distribution yet. It is highly likely that new highs will be created in this round, and the final "sweet spot" will be the period with the largest increase.
Ignore the volatility and hold for the long term.✅

🚨 Liquidity Exhausted? Data shows that the on-chain and exchange liquidity of Bitcoin is nearing exhaustion.
Compared to the previous two peaks (March & November 2024), Bitcoin's current trading volume is extremely sluggish.
🔹 On-chain turnover: During peak periods, the daily turnover was 150,000 - 160,000 BTC (7d SMA), now it is only 85,000, already halved!
🔹 Exchange spot: During peak periods, the daily trading volume was 210,000 - 260,000 BTC, now it is only 60,000, already a knee chop!
✅ After the price rise, there is a volume increase at high levels, and it has not completely dropped back to the original resistance level, which is an extremely strong performance, indicating that the main force is currently reluctant to sell, rather than eager to distribute.

🔥Seasonal benefits for counterfeit goods, Bloomberg's James latest assessment: Probability ranking for cryptocurrency spot ETF approval👇

$LTC 90% ✅
$SOL 90% ✅
$XRP 85% 🚀
$DOGE 80% 📈
$HBAR 80% 📈
$ADA 75% 🤔
$DOT 75% 🤔
$AVAX 75% 🤔
$SUI 60% ❓
$TRX Uncertain ❓

From the E/B ratio, the progress of altcoins is still very early. ✅
As the king of altcoins, ETH rose 7.18% yesterday, while BTC rose 3.02% yesterday. Over the past two months, ETH has shown significant excess returns compared to BTC.
However, on a monthly basis, the long-term deep adjustment of two years is the reason we are more optimistic about ETH and altcoins achieving excess returns in the upcoming period. $ETH

Bitcoin's movement is very similar to the previous three bull markets. Although the bull market is nearing its end, in terms of increase, it has only achieved about half of its potential. ✅
The increase at the end of a bull market is usually much higher than in the mid-phase, so we remain bullish on Bitcoin and also optimistic about altcoin season. 📈
When considering both stability and returns, in the short term, there is no better asset than Bitcoin on the market. 🏦

1️⃣ People are always too focused on short-term fluctuations and fail to see long-term trends. The primary upward wave of Bitcoin at the monthly level is still on the rise, yet countless times there have been claims that the bull market has ended, that it has peaked, and that Bitcoin is a scam.
2️⃣ You must stand high enough to part the clouds and see the rainbow. When December 2030 arrives (most likely even earlier), BTC's historical mission will officially be completed, and from then on, its market value will surpass that of gold, with volatility approximately equal to that of gold.
3️⃣ We have always firmly held a bullish view on Bitcoin and have consistently promoted it. Hold onto your Bitcoin, as the quality altcoins at the current price are the same.

A normal altcoin season pattern is
1️⃣ Liquidity turning point 📈
2️⃣ Altcoins explode after liquidity rises 🚀
This round of altcoin space and time adjustments have been completed. Although ETH and SOL have already doubled from the bottom and are in a strong consolidation, the main reason for the delay in a large-scale explosive altcoin season is primarily constrained by liquidity.
My strategy is: hold high-quality altcoin spot and wait for liquidity to explode.

In this round of the bull market, Bitcoin is sure to exceed 150,000💵
1️⃣ Official endorsement from the U.S. has yet to unleash its full potential. Bitcoin is increasingly integrating into the mainstream financial sector, with Wall Street just entering; a long-term bull market is expected in the future.
2️⃣ A global wave of interest rate cuts is here, with only the Federal Reserve holding firm! Interest rates in multiple countries have dropped to 2-3%, and the U.S. dollar index has fallen to a 22-year low. A weak dollar = strong risk assets, and a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is already imminent.
Among global mainstream assets, gold has surged significantly, U.S. Treasuries are being ignored, and the U.S. stock market has been in a bull market for ten years; the only viable option for new funds is to flow into cryptocurrency.

No deep bear under liquidity.
ETH and SOL need a small correction after doubling at the bottom to clear high leverage, making subsequent rises healthier and more sustainable. In the cryptocurrency space, such adjustments are considered strong adjustments. Under the conditions of excessive liquidity and the depreciation of the dollar 💵, there is no possibility of a deep bear in the overall crypto market; any pullback is an opportunity to get on board.