乔阁部

The liquidity cycle drives the cryptocurrency market—quantitative easing boosts the rise, while quantitative tightening hits the brakes.
History tells us:
1) Bitcoin's market share rises during QT📈
2) Altcoin season begins in the middle of QE📊
3) We are about to start a new QE cycle✅

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has successfully completed the arc bottoming and retest✅
A breakout is imminent. Based on previous cycles, Bitcoin season + altcoin season will occur during this round of total market capitalization growth, something big is coming.

P1 The giant whale positions suddenly surged in the past two weeks, with purchase quantities reaching a new high for the year. It is estimated that they have insider knowledge about something; in any case, something big is coming.
P2 Panama 🇵🇦 begins Bitcoin strategic reserves.
P3 Arizona has just passed the Bitcoin strategic bill, becoming the first state in the U.S. to do so. According to the provisions of the bill, $3.1 billion, or 10% of state funds, will be allocated for Bitcoin reserves.

Where is the top of the pie? When does the altcoin season start?
The Puell Multiple can serve as a useful BTC prediction tool, determining whether the price is too high and needs to drop (when the indicator is in the red zone) or too low and needs to rebound (when the indicator is in the green zone).
Generally speaking, a BTC bull market is divided into four distinctive phases, with the fourth phase being the parabolic rise of Bitcoin 📈 and the irrational rise of altcoins, indicating that we are still far from the end of the bull market.

Bull Market Cycle Process:
Business cycle bottoms out➡️Liquidity increases➡️Bitcoin takes off➡️Altcoins take off (Altcoin Season)
Currently, the first two steps have been completed✅
The third step of Bitcoin taking off is in full swing🔥
Altcoin season will begin within three months🚀🚀🚀

BTC market share reached a new high of 61.83, while the RSI indicator has repeatedly dulled, and there are only two ways to correct the indicators
1️⃣ Bitcoin drops significantly, altcoins drop slightly📉
2️⃣ Bitcoin rises slightly, altcoins rise significantly📈
I lean towards the second path; the altcoin season is likely not far off.
#BitcoinMarket##Altcoins#

The big rebound has arrived as expected, Bitcoin rises first, and the altcoin season is on the way 🚀.
The liquidity indicator is calculated by dividing the M2 money supply by the dollar index. When M2/DXY rises, investors may expect the prices of risk assets to increase, as rising liquidity and a weak dollar reduce the cost of holding non-dollar assets.
When M2/DXY falls, it may indicate a tightening monetary environment, a stronger dollar, and favorable conditions for dollar assets.

The M2 data of China, the United States, Europe, and Japan 📊 is soaring, with global M2 reaching a historical high, which means a flood of global liquidity.
Bitcoin's correlation with liquidity exceeds eighty percent, and it is highly likely to break new highs after a period of fluctuation and consolidation. This process of rising will be accompanied by an increase in altcoins and will gradually evolve into an altcoin season in the mid to later stages. $
#Currency Surge# #Altcoins#

【In the next decade, there is no doubt that it will be a bull market for Bitcoin and gold】
🔥 Total national debt is 36.21 trillion dollars, equivalent to 270,000 dollars of debt per American household
🔥 7.6 trillion in debt maturing in 2024
When the debt snowball reaches a critical point, the Federal Reserve can only start the printing press, and the purchasing power of the dollar will accelerate its evaporation.
The paper currency credit system is shaking, and real hard currency is awakening. When the 36 trillion debt nuclear bomb explodes, will you choose to hold depreciating paper money or true value storage?$BTC

The altcoin season is here, but why might your altcoin not necessarily rise?
Currently, there are 36.5 million types of tokens in the market, expected to reach 70 million by the end of 2025.
• 2013-2014 Altcoins: About 500 types
• 2017-2018 Altcoins: About 3000 types
• 2021-2022 Altcoins: About 3.1 million types
Give up the fantasy and face the reality.
1️⃣ Will the altcoin season come?
It will definitely come, but only for quality targets.✅
2️⃣ What are quality targets?
Those with users, revenue, ecosystem, and future.✅

When will the Bitcoin bull market and altcoin season come? ✅
The sequence is 1️⃣ Economic cycle hits bottom 🔜 2️⃣ Massive liquidity increase 🔜 3️⃣ Bitcoin explodes 🔜 4️⃣ Altcoins explode
We are currently at the second step, liquidity is starting to increase, technically Bitcoin and altcoins have adjusted sufficiently, we just need to wait for the influx of funds. In June, a large amount of high-interest government bonds will mature in the USA 🇺🇸, Trump and the Federal Reserve should be unable to hold on.

Bitcoin's current volatility is extremely low (even lower than most stocks), and this is the fourth time volatility has dropped to such a low level during this cycle. Each time this has happened, the market has been bullish.
There are two more pieces of evidence indicating that the bull market is still ongoing:
1. This kind of low volatility trend only occurs before the parabolic rise of a bull market.
2. The volatility during this bull market has never approached the peak volatility of previous cycles.
Bitcoin has just broken through the descending flag pattern, whether it can hold this level will depend on the next few days, and the altcoin season will begin after Bitcoin breaks out first.
$BTC

Global liquidity has just formed a golden cross and is breaking upwards after several years of contraction.
1️⃣ The first round of bull market after the liquidity golden cross, Bitcoin rose by 139%
2️⃣ The second round of bull market, Bitcoin rose by 2200%
3️⃣ The third round of bull market, Bitcoin rose by 1190%
4️⃣ How much can Bitcoin rise in the fourth round of bull market?
Compared to large-cap stocks, liquidity expansion is more beneficial for small-cap stocks ✅
Compared to Bitcoin, liquidity expansion is more beneficial for altcoins ✅
Bitcoin is already the sun in the morning, bright but not yet hot, the altcoin season is still at dawn 🌅$BTC

In 2011, the Bitcoin bear market yield was -92.9%, with a peak of 31U and a low of 2.2U.
In 2014, the Bitcoin bear market yield was -86.7%, with a peak of 1240U and a low of 164U.
In 2017, the Bitcoin bear market yield was -83.7%, with a peak of 19878U and a low of 3234U.
In 2021, the Bitcoin bear market yield was -77.5%, with a peak of 69000U and a low of 15476U.
Each bear market's low point is higher than (or close to) the previous bull market's high point, and this previous bull market's high point was approximately 69000.✅✅✅$BTC

After gold completes its final parabolic rise📈, Bitcoin will follow with a larger parabolic rise📈.
The function of "digital gold" in combating inflation has not disappeared, just delayed✅. At the same time, the gains of quality altcoins are also likely to exceed those of Bitcoin, and the altcoin season will unfold in tandem with this parabolic rise, expected to last over three months.
#BitcoinMarket# #Altcoins#

Global liquidity has surged in the past 12 weeks, reaching an all-time high. If Bitcoin and altcoins continue to follow this liquidity, then the following will happen:
1️⃣ BTC will experience a sustained surge period of 2 months (from May to the end of June)
2️⃣ Followed by a month of consolidation (around July)
3️⃣ Then another surge (starting at the end of July), which could be the altcoin season
#Altcoins# #BitcoinMarket#

When the dollar index rises, risk assets often fall.📉
When the dollar index falls, risk assets often rise.📈
Considering the enormous debt of the United States and Trump's turmoil, the future of a strong dollar💲 does not look optimistic. At this time, holding stablecoins may not be a good choice; selling USDT and buying BTC would be a more rational choice.
(ps: At this moment, there is a large amount of stablecoins off-market, just needing a relatively stable environment to enter.)

#When will the altcoin season come?
We should always be prepared for an altcoin explosion.
1️⃣BTC's market dominance has once again reached the peak area seen in the past year and a half.
2️⃣Stoch RSI is also in the overbought region, and a bearish crossover is imminent.
Good news for altcoins📈

Endless declines, where is the bottom for Bitcoin? 📉
Bitcoin is currently approaching two very strong support areas. 1️⃣ Actual transaction price is $70,730
2️⃣ Real market average price is $64,480

These two positions have historically played a key support role, including:
🔸 The big drop in May 2021
🔸 The bottom in January 2022, deeply trapped in a bear market
🔸 Precise support between 2023 and 2024

📉 The crypto market spends 80% of its time in sideways fluctuation, with real bull runs often concentrated in 1-2 months of explosive growth each year, while the rest of the time is spent brewing opportunities for a trend change.
This is the essence of crypto investing – enduring loneliness to embrace prosperity! The longer the market remains sideways, the stronger the momentum. Altcoins that stay sideways longer and undergo deeper corrections can be expected to have larger surges when they do explode.
The bigger the waves, the more valuable the fish! #AltcoinSeason# #Altcoins#