静哥

#BTC
This article can serve as the third continuation of the previous two articles from September 2024 (Can BTC rise to 100,000?) and December 2024 (Will BTC drop to 75,000?).
This article will focus on technical analysis; friends who don't like technical analysis can skip it.
Continuing from the previous articles, under the condition of complying with the 'Wave Theory', the current decline belongs to the big fourth wave. After the big fourth wave ends, there will inevitably be a big fifth wave.
The difference of the big fifth wave (highest price - lowest price) ≈ the difference of the big third wave (highest price - lowest price)
Based on previous data, the difference for the big third wave is a normal 55,000, with an extreme of 60,000;

Recently, BTC has risen to the estimated price range, so the question is whether it will continue to rise in one go or take a break and fall back?

My personal view is a break - a fall back.
Referring to the previous article (Can BTC rise to 100,000?), the wave data of 123 mentioned indicates that the major third wave is complete, and the major fourth wave is about to begin;
Based on the previous retracement of the major second wave, the normal decline is 19,000 points, with an extreme of 25,000 points;
Therefore, the major fourth wave will decline to a normal 104,000 - 19,000 = 85,000, with an extreme of 104,000 - 25,000 = 79,000;

And
the first support price is around 87,000, and the second support price is around 75,000;

In the trading market, there are two kinds of people who trade based on news:
One type is speculators;
One type is investors;

Just like the recent market volatility, the source of the huge fluctuations is the Federal Reserve’s information and Trump’s speeches.
Therefore, many people often stay up late waiting for the Federal Reserve’s information to be released or waiting for key figures to speak.
Is it hard? Is it tiring? Do you feel sleepy?
It's not easy~

In fact, when you spend a long time in the financial market, you will not think this way anymore, because you will transition from a short-term speculator to a long-term investor.

I haven't talked about ETH for a long time, why? Because transitioning from POW to POS has hurt me~~
Let's talk about ETH today;
Many people feel that this wave of the bull market represented by #ETH is not as good as #BTC . Of course, some aspects are indeed not as good, but in terms of the rate of increase, the gap is not significant. After all, ETH has risen from the bottom by a maximum of 4 to 5 times; it just hasn't soared to new highs like BTC as the public expected.

Accompanied by the recent decline, the lowest point has reached around 1400. So, has ETH hit the bottom?
From the weekly level, ETH is still in a downtrend, but has now reached an extreme point, which means the current position belongs to its relative limit.

There are many related articles online, and they are all quite good. For most people, the most important thing is how to be the safest #出u .
It's actually very simple. You just need to ensure that the funds you receive are clean, and that is the safest.
So what funds are the cleanest and safest?

I think the borrowed funds taken from the bank are the cleanest, so as long as you only accept borrowed funds, you can ensure that the funds you receive are clean.
If you cannot confirm whether the funds are borrowed, you can request to verify the transaction records to determine.

One thing to note is: do not exchange cash offline!!!

#BTC
Recently, Bitcoin seems to be falling endlessly, accompanied by various negative news. Market panic is continuously rising, but don't panic; at least it currently aligns with the previously predicted script, with a pullback to 75,000.
So when will Bitcoin take off?
This is a predictive proposition, shared in a previous article. Comparing the timeline, the bottoming process should start in late April, with a rise beginning in May.
So,
① Do not panic, stay calm even if you're trapped;
② Focus on bottoming, focus on rising;
③ Think about what I should do?

The high-frequency trading strategy has basically failed.
The code ran for about half a month, and after multiple improvements, I finally found that such high-frequency trading is only suitable for one-way trading and not for both long and short trading.
If the overall direction is judged correctly, the overall will make a profit.
If the overall direction is judged incorrectly, the overall will be trapped.
So I decided to temporarily give up high-frequency long-short trading until there is a relatively perfect high-frequency strategy logic.
Or wait until a bear market, and then do one-way trading to go long.
In the past few days, I have optimized the original divergence strategy and will continue to run this strategy; although the trading frequency will be lower, it will be stable.

#BTC The recent decline over the past few days has caused market panic to soar.
Some friends have private messaged me, and the two main concerns in the questions are:
1. Is the bull market still on?
2. How to build a position?
If you have read my previous articles, then you should not panic. This decline is currently in line with the previous technical analysis and belongs to the 'big fourth wave'.
So, the first question is, the bull is still here.
As for the second question, if you agree with the answer to the first question and also believe it belongs to the 'big fourth wave', then the second question is not a question anymore.

Recently, $BTC has been fluctuating at high levels, so how long will this fluctuation last?
My personal view is that the #BTC fluctuation cycle lasts about half a year.
According to the 'Wave Theory', if the large wave 4 exists, then its duration will be similar to that of the large wave 2;
The previous article mentioned large wave 2, and from the timeline, the duration of large wave 2 is half a year;
Large wave 4 ≈ Large wave 2 ≈ half a year

An article on technical analysis I wrote a few days ago (Will BTC drop to 75,000?)
Some netizens have been complaining, and I haven't seen them speak these past couple of days. I wonder if they've been liquidated? 🤣
Is anyone still alive willing to speak up?
When trading, it's important to be more rational and less emotional.
Wishing you good luck
#BTC #吐槽

Wrote an article yesterday (Will BTC drop to 75000?), and then there was some cursing.
Is it not normal to express different opinions?
Opening your mouth to curse, truly high morals~
As for those who curse,
1. Did not carefully read the article's content, it only provides future trend estimates derived from technical analysis, it did not say that a top pattern has appeared, and that shorting can be done now, etc.;
2. There’s nothing in the stomach, unlearned and unskilled, opening one’s mouth to talk about 'technical theory' is useless, that 'technical theory' is useless... I want to complain 'Dear, what do you use as a reference for trading coins? News? Data? Technology? Emotions?'

The US election is currently in full swing. If Trump loses the election, what will be the reaction? Will the market fall or rise?
 
first
If Trump loses the election, it will be bad news for BTC, which means it will fall.
Trump's current and previous remarks and statements:
①Have a very friendly attitude towards BTC;
② The team that supports him, most of them hold and are optimistic about BTC;
③ It is recommended that the United States establish a dedicated BTC strategic reserve agency in the future;
 
The financial market always moves in anticipation, that is, when the market has good or bad expectations about an event before it is confirmed, the market price will fluctuate in advance;

A few days ago, a netizen sent a private message asking, "Can BTC rise to 100,000?"
This article will discuss this issue.
My personal opinion: BTC can rise to 100,000.
 
I won’t talk about the fundamentals here. Friends who want to see fundamental analysis can look through the previous articles.
From a technical point of view.
BTC from 25,000 to 45,000 is small wave 1;
BTC from 45,000 to 39,000 is a small wave 2;
BTC from 39,000 to 73,000 is a small wave 3;
Small waves 1, 2, and 3 form big wave 1, with an increase of 73,000-25,000=48,000;
Currently, from 73,000 to 55,000, it is the big 2nd wave;
Then from the perspective of wave theory, there will definitely be a big wave 3, and the increase of big wave 3 will be almost the same as that of big wave 1, that is, an increase of 48,000 points.

BTC belongs to POW. Through dedicated mining machines, powered on and running, you can get BTC rewards by paying computing power.
Therefore, BTC has a cost, which is commonly known as the “shutdown price”.
Shutdown price = (unit electricity cost/H in the area where the mining machine is located multiplied by 24 hours) divided by the number of BTC obtained in 24 hours
 
at present
The “shutdown price” in low-electricity areas is around 32,000;
The "shutdown price" in areas with high electricity prices is around 55,000.
 
Some people think that because of the existence of the “shutdown price”, BTC will not fall below this price;
This is an illusion. In the past, BTC has fallen below the shutdown price.

After BTC rose to 73,000, it fluctuated sideways for half a year and is currently fluctuating around 60,000. So can BTC fall back to the 40000s?
I think the probability of falling to the 4-digit range again is not small, but the probability of falling to 40,000 will be relatively small.
The effective support prices below BTC are 49,000 and 41,000 respectively. It has reached around 49,000 in early August and is currently preparing for a second bottom.

When prices fluctuate, we not only need to predict future trends and ranges, but also formulate our strategies based on the predictions on how to achieve the desired returns.
If it falls to the 40s, I think that would be a good opportunity to enter the market;