Will the Fed Cut Rates in July 2025? Powell Says "No Urgency."
🇺🇸 💰Will the Fed cut rates in July? Unlikely, according to Powell’s recent tone.
💵On June 24, Jerome Powell stated there’s "no urgency" to lower interest rates. The Fed prefers to wait and assess, as the U.S. economy remains resilient and inflation risks—especially due to tariffs—linger.
Despite previous projections hinting at two cuts in 2025, many analysts now expect the first rate cut around September or later, not in July.
Political pressure is rising: Donald Trump and several Republicans are pushing Powell to lower rates, claiming the current policy is hurting growth.
Meanwhile, internal Fed voices like Waller and Bowman are more dovish, widening the split inside the Fed.
📊 Market pricing (as of June 26) shows a high probability of rate holds for the upcoming FOMC meeting (July 30), with current rates at 4.25–4.50%.
Metaplanet has acquired 1,234 BTC for ~$132.7 million at ~$107,557 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 315% YTD 2025. As of 6/26/2025, we hold 12,345 $BTC C acquired for ~$1.20 billion at ~$97,036 per bitcoin. $MTPLF
Exploring Alternative Theories In addition to traditional indicators, some traders use unconventional and speculative methods to predict Bitcoin’s price movements. Here are a few examples: 1. Lunar Phases Indicator: Some believe that new moons are bullish and full moons are bearish. Although widely debated, a few traders combine it with other technical tools. 2. Gann Theory: Based on W.D. Gann’s work, this method combines time, price, and geometry to identify market trends. Gann angles are often used to find support and resistance levels, but it remains a speculative approach. 3. Astrological Financial Indicators: Traders analyze planetary alignments and zodiac signs, claiming they influence market behavior. This approach remains more belief-based than scientific. 4. Day of the Week Effect: Some patterns suggest that specific days (like Mondays) tend to be bearish, while weekends might be more volatile. This can be linked to market liquidity and structure. 5. Social Media and Sentiment Indicators: Monitoring activity on platforms like Twitter, Reddit, and Google Trends can reveal shifts in sentiment. Sudden spikes in searches may signal upcoming price movements. 6. Fear and Greed Index: This index measures market sentiment, helping traders assess whether fear (buying opportunities) or greed (selling signals) is dominant. 7. Pi Cycle Top Indicator: A tool that uses specific moving averages (350 and 111 days, adjusted by Pi) to predict Bitcoin’s cycle tops. While it has worked in past cycles, it's not a guarantee for future trends. 8. Solar Cycle Effect: Another theory suggests that solar activity impacts financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Like the lunar phases, this is not scientifically proven. These indicators, though intriguing, should be used cautiously. They are often secondary tools in a broader strategy, complementing more traditional technical and fundamental analysis methods.
Bitcoin: A Perfect Storm of Supply and Demand is Brewing
The Bitcoin market is showing signs of a significant bullish trend, fueled by a confluence of fundamental factors. Decreasing Selling Pressure: Bitcoin miners, who are responsible for securing the network, are holding onto their newly mined coins rather than selling them immediately. This reduction in selling pressure is tightening the supply of Bitcoin available on the market. Accumulation by Whales and Institutions: Large-scale investors and institutions are continuing to accumulate Bitcoin, demonstrating their long-term confidence in the cryptocurrency. This increased demand is further exacerbating the supply shortage. Exchange Outflows: Bitcoin is being withdrawn from exchanges at an increasing rate, indicating that investors are choosing to hold their assets in cold storage rather than trading them. This behavior suggests a strong belief in Bitcoin's future value. Economic Fundamentals: The global economic climate, characterized by rising inflation and uncertainty, is driving investors towards Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional assets. Conclusion: The combination of decreasing supply and increasing demand is creating a perfect storm for Bitcoin. As the scarcity of Bitcoin becomes more pronounced, the upward pressure on its price is likely to intensify. However, it's important to remember that the cryptocurrency market remains volatile, and investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions. * Keywords: Bitcoin, supply and demand, cryptocurrency, whales, institutions, bullish, market analysis
The graph shows a comparison between the growth of Bitcoin and the combined balance sheets of the Big 4 central banks. The orange line represents Bitcoin's price, while the blue line represents the central bank balance sheets. the graph shows a potential correlation between Bitcoin's growth and central bank liquidity, it's important to consider other factors and interpret the data with caution. The statement regarding increased liquidity injections cannot be confirmed based on the information provided in the graph.