BCL2025

As the title suggests
Isn't Erbing going to waterfall? Scary
#币安投票上币 #美国加征关税 #币安HODLer空投PARTI #Strategy增持比特币 #巨鲸动向

In the last moment before the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision (half a day before the announcement), Nick Timiraos from the 'New Federal Reserve News Agency' published an article. 1. Given the time of publication, only half a day was left for the market to react, indicating that the signal is extremely significant and sensitive. Due to the obscure nature of this article, it has not yet had a major impact on the market. 2. The title of this article is (The Federal Reserve is still on the sidelines, but its strategy is undergoing a significant shift). For Chinese readers, such a title may not mean much, but Nick rarely uses the word 'significant.' The significance mentioned in the article refers to two aspects: first, the 'dot plot' may lower the expected number of interest rate cuts this year. The wording states: In the Federal Reserve's new quarterly economic forecast, most officials expect to preset one or two rate cuts this year. At first glance, this seems to mean that the interest rate outlook has not substantially changed compared to the previous round of forecast data released in December last year, when most officials anticipated two rate cuts. The article does not directly mention the words 'dot plot,' so it has been overlooked by the majority, but it actually refers to the 'dot plot.' In December last year, the dot plot indicated that the median expectation among Federal Reserve officials was for two rate cuts in 2025, but the article suggests that this may be lowered to '1-2 times' — the 'dot plot' may indicate a median expectation of one rate cut, or it may still show two rate cuts, but the number of officials expecting a single rate cut is increasing compared to the past. This will be a bearish signal for the market, and the dollar index has already risen moderately. Second, the Federal Reserve's strategy is undergoing a significant shift. In the past, there were two conditions for the Federal Reserve to cut rates: it could lower rates due to declining inflation or due to sluggish economic activity. However, now, the decrease in inflation weakens the rationale for rate cuts because the impact of tariffs on inflation remains uncertain (tariffs are an uncertain factor facing the Federal Reserve, as they could suppress economic growth but also push prices higher). 3. The difficulty of this meeting is how to rescue the frequently declining U.S. stock market. We expect Powell might say, 'The economy is doing well, but we are ready to take action as needed.' On one hand, it alleviates market concerns about an economic recession; on the other hand, it provides some comfort to the market. Beyond that, it is hard to think of what else the Federal Reserve could do. Therefore, there are two important moments on Thursday morning (Beijing time): 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, the dot plot, and the summary of the economic forecast — which may be bearish for the market. 2:30 AM, Powell holds a press conference — which may try to express some confidence in the economy and support for the market.