东京鸟人001
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大多数人不在车上，拉起来就是认真的。其实有不少人看回调了，这也为突破提供了不少可能性。尽管我也骂了不止一次，怕踏空，启动后第一时间买入了。
币姥爷
--
May 10, 2025
Yesterday's surge, I don't know how many people are happy, because from the situation in various communities, the market sentiment accompanying this wave of increase feels very similar to the time when Bitcoin was on the rise last year. Therefore, I have reason to doubt that most people are not on the ride. If this is the case, then Ethereum has the opportunity to experience a one-sided rise, surging 20 points in a day, followed by a $200 correction yesterday, and today it has again surpassed $2400. Up to this point, the signs of the main force are very obvious.
"Ethereum is truly the king of altcoins," based on yesterday's market performance, I believe everyone has a deeper understanding of this statement. So what if Bitcoin rises so much? It not only failed to drive the market up but instead drained liquidity. The rise of Ethereum, apart from driving the DeFi foundational protocols to surge, has also led many altcoins to start rising. Therefore, whether you hold Ethereum or not, you should be happy about Ethereum's increase.
With the market reaching this point, operations become much simpler. I was previously fully invested in Ethereum at around $2000, and with the options cost and segment profits, my holding cost should be even lower. Therefore, if you have been continuously increasing your position, regardless of whether you are fully invested or not, you can operate with ease. The first option is to continue to acquire positions at different resistance levels for swing trading, the second is to hold firm, waiting for the market to begin FOMO, and for those who once criticized to start regretting, then you can unload your positions.
As Bitcoin has already broken through $100,000, and the resistance at the upper high is $110,000, there is still a chance for a direct breakout. Once Bitcoin breaks through, the market in the second half of the year will officially start. For Ethereum, there are different resistances above, the first being $2600, to see if it can conquer them one by one, which is still a long way to go. Regarding whether the market for the second half of the year has already started, to be objective, I am not completely confident, but the market always rises amidst skepticism, which is also one of the historical experiences.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
Yesterday's surge, I don't know how many people are happy, because from the situation in various communities, the market sentiment accompanying this wave of increase feels very similar to the time when Bitcoin was on the rise last year. Therefore, I have reason to doubt that most people are not on the ride. If this is the case, then Ethereum has the opportunity to experience a one-sided rise, surging 20 points in a day, followed by a $200 correction yesterday, and today it has again surpassed $2400. Up to this point, the signs of the main force are very obvious.
"Ethereum is truly the king of altcoins," based on yesterday's market performance, I believe everyone has a deeper understanding of this statement. So what if Bitcoin rises so much? It not only failed to drive the market up but instead drained liquidity. The rise of Ethereum, apart from driving the DeFi foundational protocols to surge, has also led many altcoins to start rising. Therefore, whether you hold Ethereum or not, you should be happy about Ethereum's increase.
With the market reaching this point, operations become much simpler. I was previously fully invested in Ethereum at around $2000, and with the options cost and segment profits, my holding cost should be even lower. Therefore, if you have been continuously increasing your position, regardless of whether you are fully invested or not, you can operate with ease. The first option is to continue to acquire positions at different resistance levels for swing trading, the second is to hold firm, waiting for the market to begin FOMO, and for those who once criticized to start regretting, then you can unload your positions.
As Bitcoin has already broken through $100,000, and the resistance at the upper high is $110,000, there is still a chance for a direct breakout. Once Bitcoin breaks through, the market in the second half of the year will officially start. For Ethereum, there are different resistances above, the first being $2600, to see if it can conquer them one by one, which is still a long way to go. Regarding whether the market for the second half of the year has already started, to be objective, I am not completely confident, but the market always rises amidst skepticism, which is also one of the historical experiences.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
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This needs to catch up with Bitcoin, it requires vision
Brothers, the pomelo is about to take off this round, starting at least $10! I just added another 24,000 RMB to it! This round's dark horse is definitely it, no matter how much, you should buy some and hold it, don't miss this wealth $EOS #大的要来了
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The first priority in the crypto world is to learn to resist temptation; no matter how alluring or seductive it is, do not touch it, it's either AIDS or syphilis 🤭😂
币姥爷
--
April 14, 2025
Today, OM has taken over the headlines, not with a surge, but with a crash. In a few hours, the price of OM dropped from $6 to a low of $0.37, a decline of 94%, meaning it would need to increase by about 20 times just to break even. Of course, not everyone bought at the peak; however, anyone who tried to buy during the drop from $6 to $1 got burned. It is worth noting that even with such a significant drop, OM still has a market capitalization of $800 million, which means that this process has wiped out tens of billions of dollars in market value.
OM should be considered the star coin of this year, having started from under $1 and gradually risen, eventually entering the top 20 by market capitalization due to its concept and valuation. I had seen it before but didn't pay attention, because this is a common trick used by shady operators; a coin with no real application achieving a market cap of tens of billions of dollars is essentially highly manipulated. In this wave, the operators directly created a huge pit, making a fortune while leaving the retail investors suffering, and it's unlikely for them to recover their losses.
In the crypto world, one reason it's hard to make money is that there are too many traps. For coins like OM, the reason I glanced at it and moved on earlier is that, based on the instincts of seasoned investors, I judged it to be a strong operator coin, and retail investors participating would be at a definite disadvantage. However, objectively speaking, not all users in the crypto space are seasoned investors; many are tempted to buy into coins that are continuously rising. If you tend to chase after rising prices, you might have encountered situations similar to OM. I can only say that experience teaches us to be wiser and to accumulate enough knowledge to avoid being trapped next time.
Regarding the market, it has entered a slow upward stabilization phase over the past couple of days. For the upcoming market trends, I hope to see a gradual increase with some pullbacks along the way, but as long as the overall trend is upward, I still have a lot of confidence in the second half of the year. Whether in terms of sentiment or liquidity crisis, I feel that we've already passed the worst time. If there is a further significant crash, it would require other black swan events to occur. If you are willing to wait, that's fine, but I personally feel it's unnecessary.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
Today, OM has taken over the headlines, not with a surge, but with a crash. In a few hours, the price of OM dropped from $6 to a low of $0.37, a decline of 94%, meaning it would need to increase by about 20 times just to break even. Of course, not everyone bought at the peak; however, anyone who tried to buy during the drop from $6 to $1 got burned. It is worth noting that even with such a significant drop, OM still has a market capitalization of $800 million, which means that this process has wiped out tens of billions of dollars in market value.
OM should be considered the star coin of this year, having started from under $1 and gradually risen, eventually entering the top 20 by market capitalization due to its concept and valuation. I had seen it before but didn't pay attention, because this is a common trick used by shady operators; a coin with no real application achieving a market cap of tens of billions of dollars is essentially highly manipulated. In this wave, the operators directly created a huge pit, making a fortune while leaving the retail investors suffering, and it's unlikely for them to recover their losses.
In the crypto world, one reason it's hard to make money is that there are too many traps. For coins like OM, the reason I glanced at it and moved on earlier is that, based on the instincts of seasoned investors, I judged it to be a strong operator coin, and retail investors participating would be at a definite disadvantage. However, objectively speaking, not all users in the crypto space are seasoned investors; many are tempted to buy into coins that are continuously rising. If you tend to chase after rising prices, you might have encountered situations similar to OM. I can only say that experience teaches us to be wiser and to accumulate enough knowledge to avoid being trapped next time.
Regarding the market, it has entered a slow upward stabilization phase over the past couple of days. For the upcoming market trends, I hope to see a gradual increase with some pullbacks along the way, but as long as the overall trend is upward, I still have a lot of confidence in the second half of the year. Whether in terms of sentiment or liquidity crisis, I feel that we've already passed the worst time. If there is a further significant crash, it would require other black swan events to occur. If you are willing to wait, that's fine, but I personally feel it's unnecessary.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
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🪙 Grandpa Coin Prosperity
币姥爷
--
April 12, 2025
The trade war is not over yet. Now, the U.S. bond market is having issues, with either the EU or Japan frantically dumping U.S. ten-year treasury bonds, leading to a surge in long-term bond yields. There are voices in the market expressing pessimism about the U.S. If Trump's tariff negotiation strategy earned him an upper hand, then the action of capital markets selling U.S. ten-year treasury bonds is a vote of no confidence, providing a powerful counterattack against Trump's 'recklessness'.
The rise in U.S. ten-year treasury yields will trigger a series of chain reactions, the most direct and uncomfortable for the Trump administration being the increased interest expenses on U.S. government debt, which contradicts the goals of this trade war. Additionally, if long-term bond yields rise, it will attract capital inflow, thereby reducing liquidity in the market, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into recession, while indirectly negatively impacting risk markets, such as the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Therefore, in this context, I predict that the smoke of the trade war will gradually dissipate, but first, we need to save the bond market.
In fact, even if the trade war continues to escalate, the subsequent impact will directly transition to U.S. trade industries, essentially going underwater. However, our country’s re-export trade scale is also quite good, and with some edge-case trading, the actual impact is smaller than many think. Thus, emotionally speaking, the worst moment has passed, and there is a certain probability that a bottoming phase has already occurred. I believe we are now waiting for a corrective phase, followed by a new round of market movements.
Additionally, there is a noteworthy signal recently: cryptocurrencies are finding it increasingly difficult to experience one-sided declines. BABY, in particular, has seen its current price nearly double compared to the off-market price, with several points higher than the opening price. The last launched GUN did drop later, but it actually saw a small rally at the opening. This shows that when the valuation of cryptocurrency projects reaches a relatively 'reasonable' range at launch, the main players will act contrarily. In my view, driving down the valuation of projects will create more opportunities for the secondary market, which can be seen as a small bottoming signal.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
The trade war is not over yet. Now, the U.S. bond market is having issues, with either the EU or Japan frantically dumping U.S. ten-year treasury bonds, leading to a surge in long-term bond yields. There are voices in the market expressing pessimism about the U.S. If Trump's tariff negotiation strategy earned him an upper hand, then the action of capital markets selling U.S. ten-year treasury bonds is a vote of no confidence, providing a powerful counterattack against Trump's 'recklessness'.
The rise in U.S. ten-year treasury yields will trigger a series of chain reactions, the most direct and uncomfortable for the Trump administration being the increased interest expenses on U.S. government debt, which contradicts the goals of this trade war. Additionally, if long-term bond yields rise, it will attract capital inflow, thereby reducing liquidity in the market, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into recession, while indirectly negatively impacting risk markets, such as the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Therefore, in this context, I predict that the smoke of the trade war will gradually dissipate, but first, we need to save the bond market.
In fact, even if the trade war continues to escalate, the subsequent impact will directly transition to U.S. trade industries, essentially going underwater. However, our country’s re-export trade scale is also quite good, and with some edge-case trading, the actual impact is smaller than many think. Thus, emotionally speaking, the worst moment has passed, and there is a certain probability that a bottoming phase has already occurred. I believe we are now waiting for a corrective phase, followed by a new round of market movements.
Additionally, there is a noteworthy signal recently: cryptocurrencies are finding it increasingly difficult to experience one-sided declines. BABY, in particular, has seen its current price nearly double compared to the off-market price, with several points higher than the opening price. The last launched GUN did drop later, but it actually saw a small rally at the opening. This shows that when the valuation of cryptocurrency projects reaches a relatively 'reasonable' range at launch, the main players will act contrarily. In my view, driving down the valuation of projects will create more opportunities for the secondary market, which can be seen as a small bottoming signal.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
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Looking back at the end of the year, it is likely that this is the best bottom-fishing opportunity.
币姥爷
--
April 7, 2025
Alas, it ultimately couldn't hold up, the cryptocurrency market has collapsed again, Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000, and Ethereum is leading the mainstream down with a single-day plunge of 20%, falling below $1,500 and less than 10,000 RMB. This drop has only been seen during the 312 and 519 events, and it is truly a painful loss. Sometimes it is like this; having too strong a belief can lead to a higher buying cost. Although money was made on the way up, this is also a manifestation of path dependence. Currently, Bitcoin's performance remains the strongest, especially compared to the prices of altcoins. Therefore, if there is still significant capital looking to buy the dip, Bitcoin remains the safest choice.
In fact, every bear market tends to make one mistake, which is buying too eagerly, causing them to exhaust their ammunition too early. Conversely, during a bull market, one tends to sell before the market is completely crazy. The price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market always exceed expectations, but I think at this stage we should dream more about the bull market, envisioning the scene of holding low-priced chips and selling at the peak of the bull market. This is also the original intention for most people to enter the cryptocurrency market.
The biggest challenge right now lies in the liquidity crisis in the U.S. stock market, as Trump's tariff stick has caused the U.S. stock market to plummet close to a circuit breaker. Based on the futures market, tonight won't be any better. The lack of liquidity may trigger further declines in the U.S. stock market, and even gold has seen a pullback, which is the scariest part. People have already started to worry about a repeat of '312'. Now, stock markets around the world are reacting: the Nikkei index has dropped by 9%, Taiwan's stock market has hit a circuit breaker, Hong Kong stocks are down about 10%, and the A-share market is down by 6%... The panic of circuit breakers is spreading, and the short-term market outlook is not optimistic. As for the cryptocurrency market and Ethereum, it is difficult to predict how low this wave will go; Ethereum can drop by 20% in one day, which is terrifying during a liquidity crisis.
Many people may wonder, will there still be a bull market this year? My personal view is that there will be one. Aside from the inherent four-year cycle in the cryptocurrency market, this year is truly a bull market year. Another perspective is that Trump's tariff policy is not an end but a means. Once his goals are achieved, the policy will change, as such high tariffs cannot exist in the long term, and the stagnation of the U.S. stock market will not be accepted by the public. The second quarter may be one of the darkest months, but it could also be the darkest hour. Prepare for the worst and wait for the dawn.
Thank you for your support.
Alas, it ultimately couldn't hold up, the cryptocurrency market has collapsed again, Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000, and Ethereum is leading the mainstream down with a single-day plunge of 20%, falling below $1,500 and less than 10,000 RMB. This drop has only been seen during the 312 and 519 events, and it is truly a painful loss. Sometimes it is like this; having too strong a belief can lead to a higher buying cost. Although money was made on the way up, this is also a manifestation of path dependence. Currently, Bitcoin's performance remains the strongest, especially compared to the prices of altcoins. Therefore, if there is still significant capital looking to buy the dip, Bitcoin remains the safest choice.
In fact, every bear market tends to make one mistake, which is buying too eagerly, causing them to exhaust their ammunition too early. Conversely, during a bull market, one tends to sell before the market is completely crazy. The price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market always exceed expectations, but I think at this stage we should dream more about the bull market, envisioning the scene of holding low-priced chips and selling at the peak of the bull market. This is also the original intention for most people to enter the cryptocurrency market.
The biggest challenge right now lies in the liquidity crisis in the U.S. stock market, as Trump's tariff stick has caused the U.S. stock market to plummet close to a circuit breaker. Based on the futures market, tonight won't be any better. The lack of liquidity may trigger further declines in the U.S. stock market, and even gold has seen a pullback, which is the scariest part. People have already started to worry about a repeat of '312'. Now, stock markets around the world are reacting: the Nikkei index has dropped by 9%, Taiwan's stock market has hit a circuit breaker, Hong Kong stocks are down about 10%, and the A-share market is down by 6%... The panic of circuit breakers is spreading, and the short-term market outlook is not optimistic. As for the cryptocurrency market and Ethereum, it is difficult to predict how low this wave will go; Ethereum can drop by 20% in one day, which is terrifying during a liquidity crisis.
Many people may wonder, will there still be a bull market this year? My personal view is that there will be one. Aside from the inherent four-year cycle in the cryptocurrency market, this year is truly a bull market year. Another perspective is that Trump's tariff policy is not an end but a means. Once his goals are achieved, the policy will change, as such high tariffs cannot exist in the long term, and the stagnation of the U.S. stock market will not be accepted by the public. The second quarter may be one of the darkest months, but it could also be the darkest hour. Prepare for the worst and wait for the dawn.
Thank you for your support.
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Lying flat, completely cleared out the garbage coins, just relax with Bitcoin
币姥爷
--
March 28, 2025
In addition to wallet launches, Binance is also aggressively listing new coins. Yesterday at 5 AM, four spot trading pairs were launched all at once, which I see as various garbage from the BSC ecosystem. Perhaps realizing this, aside from TUT which had a brief surge, the others basically peaked right after the news came out. Memes are just a game of passing the baton back and forth. Whether the market can rise later if it improves is very difficult to judge. Whether to continue pushing the price depends on whether the main forces have finished unloading their holdings, and whether there will be more foolish buyers willing to take over.
Additionally, the coins recently listed by Binance have had very low market caps after going live, mostly in the tens of millions of dollars. The Kilo that was launched by the wallet yesterday seems to still be backed by Binance, and it does have a product. Although there may not be many users, having a circulation of over 20 million compared to the hundreds of millions in market cap during a bull market at launch, I can only say that investors have learned their lesson. They are all clear that with so many altcoins coming up, buying them basically means providing liquidity for those VCs and project parties to exit. We would rather not make this money than let them succeed.
I don’t know if it’s influenced by Binance’s aggressive listing of coins, but the overall market has started to decline, with Ethereum dropping back to the $1900 mark, and Bitcoin also coming down to this small support level of $85,000. The reason everyone is blaming Binance is that such a dense listing of coins can drain the market’s liquidity and attention. There is also speculation that Binance believes we are about to enter a deep bear market, hence the frenzy of cashing out. In this regard, I don’t think we should panic too much; such baseless speculation is just something to observe. We are already in a bear market, at least in terms of market sentiment and capital activity, it is definitely a bear market. Liquidating positions at this time is quite foolish.
As for Ethereum, it is indeed too weak. The exchange rate has dropped to 0.022, which is a fourfold decrease from the peak, meaning the exchange rate must rise four times to catch up to Bitcoin. Rationally speaking, if one is to allocate assets next, it’s better to include Bitcoin, or BNB, or SOL for a balanced allocation. I remain optimistic about Ethereum’s future, but due to the lack of innovative projects launching on Ethereum recently, there have been no hot topics, and naturally, there hasn’t been much capital activity. This situation seems likely to continue for a while.
Let’s hold on together.
In addition to wallet launches, Binance is also aggressively listing new coins. Yesterday at 5 AM, four spot trading pairs were launched all at once, which I see as various garbage from the BSC ecosystem. Perhaps realizing this, aside from TUT which had a brief surge, the others basically peaked right after the news came out. Memes are just a game of passing the baton back and forth. Whether the market can rise later if it improves is very difficult to judge. Whether to continue pushing the price depends on whether the main forces have finished unloading their holdings, and whether there will be more foolish buyers willing to take over.
Additionally, the coins recently listed by Binance have had very low market caps after going live, mostly in the tens of millions of dollars. The Kilo that was launched by the wallet yesterday seems to still be backed by Binance, and it does have a product. Although there may not be many users, having a circulation of over 20 million compared to the hundreds of millions in market cap during a bull market at launch, I can only say that investors have learned their lesson. They are all clear that with so many altcoins coming up, buying them basically means providing liquidity for those VCs and project parties to exit. We would rather not make this money than let them succeed.
I don’t know if it’s influenced by Binance’s aggressive listing of coins, but the overall market has started to decline, with Ethereum dropping back to the $1900 mark, and Bitcoin also coming down to this small support level of $85,000. The reason everyone is blaming Binance is that such a dense listing of coins can drain the market’s liquidity and attention. There is also speculation that Binance believes we are about to enter a deep bear market, hence the frenzy of cashing out. In this regard, I don’t think we should panic too much; such baseless speculation is just something to observe. We are already in a bear market, at least in terms of market sentiment and capital activity, it is definitely a bear market. Liquidating positions at this time is quite foolish.
As for Ethereum, it is indeed too weak. The exchange rate has dropped to 0.022, which is a fourfold decrease from the peak, meaning the exchange rate must rise four times to catch up to Bitcoin. Rationally speaking, if one is to allocate assets next, it’s better to include Bitcoin, or BNB, or SOL for a balanced allocation. I remain optimistic about Ethereum’s future, but due to the lack of innovative projects launching on Ethereum recently, there have been no hot topics, and naturally, there hasn’t been much capital activity. This situation seems likely to continue for a while.
Let’s hold on together.
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Eos countless old leeks being cut down by the sickle~ no matter what disguise, choose to avoid
币姥爷
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March 20, 2025
In the past two days, there has been a significant event: the project EOS, which previously raised 4.2 billion USD, has been renamed Vaulta. This also signifies that EOS has abandoned its dream of a public blockchain and is now turning towards Web3 banking, where XRP is the leading player. This project, known to every seasoned investor seven years ago, which was expected to rise above 1000 after three waves, is coming to an end in this manner, which is quite lamentable.
Blockchain is an emerging track, which also means there are enormous risks. Even in the top ten by market capitalization, each cycle of bull and bear will bring changes, and the former EOS is one of them. In such a high-risk investment track, I believe the most important thing is to invest in the track itself rather than a single project. Of course, there will inevitably be some phenomenal projects that emerge, but that does not mean you can catch them, after all, that is a one in ten thousand chance.
In terms of market trends, Ethereum rose to 2000 USD yesterday. Although it did not continue to break through the 2100 USD resistance, this is still a rare increase recently. Currently, it seems that the trend is to maintain the 2000 point level. If it can successfully hold this level, even if it remains volatile, it is a good sign. Next, we will see how it breaks through the 2100 point.
For friends who have stabilized at 1800, the most hoped-for scenario is a substantial rebound in Ethereum. Although objectively speaking, the probability of a violent short-term surge is low, I feel that from an emotional perspective, we may have already passed the worst moment. Whether it is volatility or slight increases, they are all positive signals, so let's be patient a little longer.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
In the past two days, there has been a significant event: the project EOS, which previously raised 4.2 billion USD, has been renamed Vaulta. This also signifies that EOS has abandoned its dream of a public blockchain and is now turning towards Web3 banking, where XRP is the leading player. This project, known to every seasoned investor seven years ago, which was expected to rise above 1000 after three waves, is coming to an end in this manner, which is quite lamentable.
Blockchain is an emerging track, which also means there are enormous risks. Even in the top ten by market capitalization, each cycle of bull and bear will bring changes, and the former EOS is one of them. In such a high-risk investment track, I believe the most important thing is to invest in the track itself rather than a single project. Of course, there will inevitably be some phenomenal projects that emerge, but that does not mean you can catch them, after all, that is a one in ten thousand chance.
In terms of market trends, Ethereum rose to 2000 USD yesterday. Although it did not continue to break through the 2100 USD resistance, this is still a rare increase recently. Currently, it seems that the trend is to maintain the 2000 point level. If it can successfully hold this level, even if it remains volatile, it is a good sign. Next, we will see how it breaks through the 2100 point.
For friends who have stabilized at 1800, the most hoped-for scenario is a substantial rebound in Ethereum. Although objectively speaking, the probability of a violent short-term surge is low, I feel that from an emotional perspective, we may have already passed the worst moment. Whether it is volatility or slight increases, they are all positive signals, so let's be patient a little longer.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
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Completely cut losses on ETH, if I buy again I’m just a puppy, never made money on it. 😂
币姥爷
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The key drop, success or failure hinges on this
March 11, 2025
The situation I was most worried about happened unexpectedly at dawn, with BTC dropping to a low of 76,600, almost touching the important support level of 75,000. Ethereum fared worse, directly breaking below 1,800 points, shattering the lowest support level of 2,000 points that had held for over a year. Of course, this drop may not be due to the cryptocurrency market itself; the direct cause was the crash of US stocks last night, with the Nasdaq dropping 4% in one day and Tesla falling by 15%, effectively halving from its relative high. Users in the US stock market are also engulfed in a wave of panic, and this decline in US stocks directly caused the overall drop in the cryptocurrency market to exceed 10%.
The situation I was most worried about happened unexpectedly at dawn, with BTC dropping to a low of 76,600, almost touching the important support level of 75,000. Ethereum fared worse, directly breaking below 1,800 points, shattering the lowest support level of 2,000 points that had held for over a year. Of course, this drop may not be due to the cryptocurrency market itself; the direct cause was the crash of US stocks last night, with the Nasdaq dropping 4% in one day and Tesla falling by 15%, effectively halving from its relative high. Users in the US stock market are also engulfed in a wave of panic, and this decline in US stocks directly caused the overall drop in the cryptocurrency market to exceed 10%.
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Trump's dollar hegemony needs a blockchain to assist in completing his imperial ambitions, so it seems that Aunty hopes are quite high.
币姥爷
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The market shows a unanimous bearish sentiment.
February 10, 2025
The market is further dipping; let's first look at Bitcoin and Ethereum. They are still holding onto important support lines, with BTC at 75,000-80,000, this previous high point, and Ethereum at 2,000, which has been hit multiple times over the past year but has never dropped below. For the current phase of the market, these two levels are a watershed, or even a lifeline. A significant drop below makes the bottom of the market unpredictable, while holding above would mark the starting point for the second half of the year's rally. Everyone is clear in their hearts; no one can be sure if it will drop below, but the choices made at this moment will greatly influence your returns.
The market is further dipping; let's first look at Bitcoin and Ethereum. They are still holding onto important support lines, with BTC at 75,000-80,000, this previous high point, and Ethereum at 2,000, which has been hit multiple times over the past year but has never dropped below. For the current phase of the market, these two levels are a watershed, or even a lifeline. A significant drop below makes the bottom of the market unpredictable, while holding above would mark the starting point for the second half of the year's rally. Everyone is clear in their hearts; no one can be sure if it will drop below, but the choices made at this moment will greatly influence your returns.
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The concubine feels like a helpless person!
币姥爷
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Yesterday it was a bull, today it has returned to its original form! Let's be family together～
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Watching the market as wealth shrinks significantly is truly unpleasant! If you can hold on, keep your spirits high! Perhaps it's best to avoid looking at the market! The coins you hold are fine, and the prices will eventually come back.
币姥爷
--
February 28, 2025
The market has continued to decline, and this wave of decline is mainly driven by BTC. Although altcoins seem to have not followed the decline, on one hand, it is because they have already dropped significantly before, with many of them having their values halved at high positions, and some have dropped by 90%. Further declines would be impolite. The main force behind BTC is no longer completely the big players in the crypto circle; after the ETF, various capital, including Wall Street, has entered the game. Of course, this is also a characteristic of every bull market, which brings new buying power, but this time it is capital that is buying.
You may have noticed that BlackRock has frequently transferred coins to exchanges recently, mainly BTC + ETH. In fact, this is not BlackRock selling coins themselves, but rather the ETF selling coins. The coins of the ETF are managed by BlackRock, and with the recent price drop, it is certain that ETF players are choosing to sell, so BlackRock must sell the coins accordingly, which is essentially helping clients sell coins. Previously, the price of BTC was driven up by ETF buying; if the ETF is offloading, it will definitely fall. Let’s clarify the logic first.
Understanding this point, I can only say that the downward trend of BTC has not stopped, just like the previous rise had some inertia. BTC had been oscillating between 90,000 and 100,000. If it can maintain this oscillating range, then this 'halftime break' wouldn’t be so uncomfortable. However, it has indeed broken down, and now we can only continuously look for support, hoping that the support level can hold. The market's relatively subjective support is around 75,000, which is a dense area of chips during the upward process.
As for altcoins, I haven't built up my positions much, mainly focusing on ETH, and I have added some AI. ETH has definitely suffered a considerable loss, but the selling pressure from Ethereum's ETF is relatively small. In any case, the price drop during historical trends is an opportunity for long-term holders; however, being in this situation inevitably leads to panic. Personally, due to relatively reasonable cost control, I am not panicking, but I also need to rely on faith to hold on. If position management is decent, I would suggest buying more as the price drops. Overall, this price represents the third bottom test for ETH, and the probability of holding is still there. If it breaks down, then we will wait for the market in the second half of the year; it is not the first time experiencing this.
Thank you for your attention and likes. Let’s hold on together.
The market has continued to decline, and this wave of decline is mainly driven by BTC. Although altcoins seem to have not followed the decline, on one hand, it is because they have already dropped significantly before, with many of them having their values halved at high positions, and some have dropped by 90%. Further declines would be impolite. The main force behind BTC is no longer completely the big players in the crypto circle; after the ETF, various capital, including Wall Street, has entered the game. Of course, this is also a characteristic of every bull market, which brings new buying power, but this time it is capital that is buying.
You may have noticed that BlackRock has frequently transferred coins to exchanges recently, mainly BTC + ETH. In fact, this is not BlackRock selling coins themselves, but rather the ETF selling coins. The coins of the ETF are managed by BlackRock, and with the recent price drop, it is certain that ETF players are choosing to sell, so BlackRock must sell the coins accordingly, which is essentially helping clients sell coins. Previously, the price of BTC was driven up by ETF buying; if the ETF is offloading, it will definitely fall. Let’s clarify the logic first.
Understanding this point, I can only say that the downward trend of BTC has not stopped, just like the previous rise had some inertia. BTC had been oscillating between 90,000 and 100,000. If it can maintain this oscillating range, then this 'halftime break' wouldn’t be so uncomfortable. However, it has indeed broken down, and now we can only continuously look for support, hoping that the support level can hold. The market's relatively subjective support is around 75,000, which is a dense area of chips during the upward process.
As for altcoins, I haven't built up my positions much, mainly focusing on ETH, and I have added some AI. ETH has definitely suffered a considerable loss, but the selling pressure from Ethereum's ETF is relatively small. In any case, the price drop during historical trends is an opportunity for long-term holders; however, being in this situation inevitably leads to panic. Personally, due to relatively reasonable cost control, I am not panicking, but I also need to rely on faith to hold on. If position management is decent, I would suggest buying more as the price drops. Overall, this price represents the third bottom test for ETH, and the probability of holding is still there. If it breaks down, then we will wait for the market in the second half of the year; it is not the first time experiencing this.
Thank you for your attention and likes. Let’s hold on together.
See original
CoinGrandpa is always one step ahead of the market!
币姥爷
--
February 27, 2025
Indeed, the weak rebound of the market indicates a short-term pullback again. It is worth noting that the main force behind this decline is BTC, along with mainstream coins including ETH, while altcoins not only did not follow the decline but some sectors even rebounded strongly. The only altcoin sector I invested in - AI new coins - is already profitable. This also indicates that as long as the coins we choose are not problematic, it is relatively easy to generate profits after gradually building positions during the decline to lower costs. Holding onto them a bit longer during a bull market can lead to substantial gains.
As for BTC, it has remained at a high level without much decline, which may be the biggest concern. After all, altcoins have generally halved after months of decline, and if BTC drops by several tens of thousands of dollars, some altcoins' market capitalizations still have room for further exploration. However, when everyone in the market is worried, I believe we should actually hold our ground, right? Additionally, I looked at the US stock market, which is currently testing support at a daily low level, meaning the US stocks have not broken down, and the probability of BTC breaking down is not high.
Moreover, last year’s market had BTC moving independently. After the ETF approval, the capital primarily from Wall Street focused on BTC, so even if there is a sell-off, it might not drag down altcoins too much, as the main forces have changed. In fact, the recent situation where altcoins are not following the decline somewhat illustrates this. The reason I bought some AI coins to play with, besides considering their popularity and concept, is mainly due to their price and market capitalization, which have dropped 80-90% from their relative highs, providing a sufficiently high safety cushion and showing some characteristics of a bottom.
Last year, when the market was in a FOMO state, I advised everyone to stay calm, only sell and not buy, selling in batches. Many people said they would miss out on a great bull market. Now, I am telling everyone to buy in batches at the bottom, and being stuck in left-side trading by one or two dozen points is quite normal, but many still feel that the price will go lower. To be honest, I can't predict the bottom position, just as I can't predict the top; I can only say that it is suitable to sell when it's the right time to sell, and now it’s the same in reverse, only that it’s time to buy at the right price.
Thank you for your attention and likes. Let’s hold on together for the arrival of the bull market. For more questions, you can join 币安聊天群 for discussion.
Indeed, the weak rebound of the market indicates a short-term pullback again. It is worth noting that the main force behind this decline is BTC, along with mainstream coins including ETH, while altcoins not only did not follow the decline but some sectors even rebounded strongly. The only altcoin sector I invested in - AI new coins - is already profitable. This also indicates that as long as the coins we choose are not problematic, it is relatively easy to generate profits after gradually building positions during the decline to lower costs. Holding onto them a bit longer during a bull market can lead to substantial gains.
As for BTC, it has remained at a high level without much decline, which may be the biggest concern. After all, altcoins have generally halved after months of decline, and if BTC drops by several tens of thousands of dollars, some altcoins' market capitalizations still have room for further exploration. However, when everyone in the market is worried, I believe we should actually hold our ground, right? Additionally, I looked at the US stock market, which is currently testing support at a daily low level, meaning the US stocks have not broken down, and the probability of BTC breaking down is not high.
Moreover, last year’s market had BTC moving independently. After the ETF approval, the capital primarily from Wall Street focused on BTC, so even if there is a sell-off, it might not drag down altcoins too much, as the main forces have changed. In fact, the recent situation where altcoins are not following the decline somewhat illustrates this. The reason I bought some AI coins to play with, besides considering their popularity and concept, is mainly due to their price and market capitalization, which have dropped 80-90% from their relative highs, providing a sufficiently high safety cushion and showing some characteristics of a bottom.
Last year, when the market was in a FOMO state, I advised everyone to stay calm, only sell and not buy, selling in batches. Many people said they would miss out on a great bull market. Now, I am telling everyone to buy in batches at the bottom, and being stuck in left-side trading by one or two dozen points is quite normal, but many still feel that the price will go lower. To be honest, I can't predict the bottom position, just as I can't predict the top; I can only say that it is suitable to sell when it's the right time to sell, and now it’s the same in reverse, only that it’s time to buy at the right price.
Thank you for your attention and likes. Let’s hold on together for the arrival of the bull market. For more questions, you can join 币安聊天群 for discussion.
👍👍👍👍
币姥爷
--
Three tests of the bottom, I choose to be greedy
February 25, 2025
Brothers, this market needs no further words. As an old veteran in the crypto space, I am accustomed to it. My own position has rapidly reached 80-90% in these few days, and it is basically close to being fully invested. In recent days, Ethereum has been affected by a hacking incident, almost breaking its all-time high, but due to the overall trend still being volatile, and today it seems we have come to a triple bottom test, including BTC breaking below 90,000, which is an important support level. Coupled with the decline of altcoins over the past few months, I choose to strike again at this position, although it is a pity that I was a bit hasty a couple of days ago and bought at a higher price.
Brothers, this market needs no further words. As an old veteran in the crypto space, I am accustomed to it. My own position has rapidly reached 80-90% in these few days, and it is basically close to being fully invested. In recent days, Ethereum has been affected by a hacking incident, almost breaking its all-time high, but due to the overall trend still being volatile, and today it seems we have come to a triple bottom test, including BTC breaking below 90,000, which is an important support level. Coupled with the decline of altcoins over the past few months, I choose to strike again at this position, although it is a pity that I was a bit hasty a couple of days ago and bought at a higher price.
See original
Can Pi be shorted? I'm not sure right now, but by the time the bull market completely ends, it shouldn't be a big issue to short many air coins, right?
币姥爷
--
February 19, 2025
In one more day, PI will be launched on various exchanges. To be honest, it is still difficult to understand that so many exchanges are gradually accepting the fact that PI is going live. From the perspective of exchanges, it's understandable for the sake of traffic, and even Binance might eventually yield to this huge wave of traffic. Anyway, the launch on exchanges is a done deal, and discussing it further is pointless. For us, we can see if there are arbitrage opportunities, because in my view, most of those holding PI do not understand trading, which provides potential opportunities for arbitrage.
As for this wave of traffic, it is uncertain whether it is a blessing or a curse for the crypto world, because unlike Trump and Libra, these coins have major holders with large stakes, and coming into the crypto space is purely for profit, which will drain liquidity from the crypto market. However, the PI coin will bring a large number of older individuals to the exchanges, and whether their pensions will be affected by PI is another matter. Anyway, it is not easy for PI to take from the crypto community. Even if it seeks to absorb funds, most of it would come from the pensions of older individuals, which does not concern us. But conversely, once a large number of older individuals enter the exchanges, it may bring some funds into the crypto space, as they might buy platform tokens or altcoins, which could also be a major consideration for exchanges launching PI.
In terms of market conditions, it has recently been fluctuating slightly around this position, with Bitcoin around 95,000 and Ethereum mainly in the 2,600-2,700 range, while other altcoins haven't experienced significant fluctuations. From historical data, if this is a bottoming out fluctuation, this duration is not long enough; normally it would continue to fluctuate for a while longer, from a few weeks to 1-2 months. Therefore, if you want to build a position, you should do so without pressure; normally, the market won’t turn sharply upwards.
On the other hand, if you are determined to buy at the bottom, you should buy now. You can buy less and buy slowly, but you must buy. Even if the upcoming fluctuations may present lower prices, why? This actually involves the issue of execution in a bear market. If you do not actively buy at this price, you will be even less inclined to act if it drops further. When you continuously validate your judgment as correct, you will remain obsessed in a bear market until the bull market starts, and then you will want to build a position again. Therefore, I have always advocated that one should be more active in a bear market and maintain a calm mindset in a bull market.
Thank you.
In one more day, PI will be launched on various exchanges. To be honest, it is still difficult to understand that so many exchanges are gradually accepting the fact that PI is going live. From the perspective of exchanges, it's understandable for the sake of traffic, and even Binance might eventually yield to this huge wave of traffic. Anyway, the launch on exchanges is a done deal, and discussing it further is pointless. For us, we can see if there are arbitrage opportunities, because in my view, most of those holding PI do not understand trading, which provides potential opportunities for arbitrage.
As for this wave of traffic, it is uncertain whether it is a blessing or a curse for the crypto world, because unlike Trump and Libra, these coins have major holders with large stakes, and coming into the crypto space is purely for profit, which will drain liquidity from the crypto market. However, the PI coin will bring a large number of older individuals to the exchanges, and whether their pensions will be affected by PI is another matter. Anyway, it is not easy for PI to take from the crypto community. Even if it seeks to absorb funds, most of it would come from the pensions of older individuals, which does not concern us. But conversely, once a large number of older individuals enter the exchanges, it may bring some funds into the crypto space, as they might buy platform tokens or altcoins, which could also be a major consideration for exchanges launching PI.
In terms of market conditions, it has recently been fluctuating slightly around this position, with Bitcoin around 95,000 and Ethereum mainly in the 2,600-2,700 range, while other altcoins haven't experienced significant fluctuations. From historical data, if this is a bottoming out fluctuation, this duration is not long enough; normally it would continue to fluctuate for a while longer, from a few weeks to 1-2 months. Therefore, if you want to build a position, you should do so without pressure; normally, the market won’t turn sharply upwards.
On the other hand, if you are determined to buy at the bottom, you should buy now. You can buy less and buy slowly, but you must buy. Even if the upcoming fluctuations may present lower prices, why? This actually involves the issue of execution in a bear market. If you do not actively buy at this price, you will be even less inclined to act if it drops further. When you continuously validate your judgment as correct, you will remain obsessed in a bear market until the bull market starts, and then you will want to build a position again. Therefore, I have always advocated that one should be more active in a bear market and maintain a calm mindset in a bull market.
Thank you.
See original
My assets have shrunk a lot recently, so much so that I dare not look at my account! 😂, but I told myself that even if I want to sell, this is not the time, hold on! I am not the only one who has shrunk.
币姥爷
--
February 19, 2025
In one more day, PI will be launched on various exchanges. To be honest, it is still difficult to understand that so many exchanges are gradually accepting the fact that PI is going live. From the perspective of exchanges, it's understandable for the sake of traffic, and even Binance might eventually yield to this huge wave of traffic. Anyway, the launch on exchanges is a done deal, and discussing it further is pointless. For us, we can see if there are arbitrage opportunities, because in my view, most of those holding PI do not understand trading, which provides potential opportunities for arbitrage.
As for this wave of traffic, it is uncertain whether it is a blessing or a curse for the crypto world, because unlike Trump and Libra, these coins have major holders with large stakes, and coming into the crypto space is purely for profit, which will drain liquidity from the crypto market. However, the PI coin will bring a large number of older individuals to the exchanges, and whether their pensions will be affected by PI is another matter. Anyway, it is not easy for PI to take from the crypto community. Even if it seeks to absorb funds, most of it would come from the pensions of older individuals, which does not concern us. But conversely, once a large number of older individuals enter the exchanges, it may bring some funds into the crypto space, as they might buy platform tokens or altcoins, which could also be a major consideration for exchanges launching PI.
In terms of market conditions, it has recently been fluctuating slightly around this position, with Bitcoin around 95,000 and Ethereum mainly in the 2,600-2,700 range, while other altcoins haven't experienced significant fluctuations. From historical data, if this is a bottoming out fluctuation, this duration is not long enough; normally it would continue to fluctuate for a while longer, from a few weeks to 1-2 months. Therefore, if you want to build a position, you should do so without pressure; normally, the market won’t turn sharply upwards.
On the other hand, if you are determined to buy at the bottom, you should buy now. You can buy less and buy slowly, but you must buy. Even if the upcoming fluctuations may present lower prices, why? This actually involves the issue of execution in a bear market. If you do not actively buy at this price, you will be even less inclined to act if it drops further. When you continuously validate your judgment as correct, you will remain obsessed in a bear market until the bull market starts, and then you will want to build a position again. Therefore, I have always advocated that one should be more active in a bear market and maintain a calm mindset in a bull market.
Thank you.
In one more day, PI will be launched on various exchanges. To be honest, it is still difficult to understand that so many exchanges are gradually accepting the fact that PI is going live. From the perspective of exchanges, it's understandable for the sake of traffic, and even Binance might eventually yield to this huge wave of traffic. Anyway, the launch on exchanges is a done deal, and discussing it further is pointless. For us, we can see if there are arbitrage opportunities, because in my view, most of those holding PI do not understand trading, which provides potential opportunities for arbitrage.
As for this wave of traffic, it is uncertain whether it is a blessing or a curse for the crypto world, because unlike Trump and Libra, these coins have major holders with large stakes, and coming into the crypto space is purely for profit, which will drain liquidity from the crypto market. However, the PI coin will bring a large number of older individuals to the exchanges, and whether their pensions will be affected by PI is another matter. Anyway, it is not easy for PI to take from the crypto community. Even if it seeks to absorb funds, most of it would come from the pensions of older individuals, which does not concern us. But conversely, once a large number of older individuals enter the exchanges, it may bring some funds into the crypto space, as they might buy platform tokens or altcoins, which could also be a major consideration for exchanges launching PI.
In terms of market conditions, it has recently been fluctuating slightly around this position, with Bitcoin around 95,000 and Ethereum mainly in the 2,600-2,700 range, while other altcoins haven't experienced significant fluctuations. From historical data, if this is a bottoming out fluctuation, this duration is not long enough; normally it would continue to fluctuate for a while longer, from a few weeks to 1-2 months. Therefore, if you want to build a position, you should do so without pressure; normally, the market won’t turn sharply upwards.
On the other hand, if you are determined to buy at the bottom, you should buy now. You can buy less and buy slowly, but you must buy. Even if the upcoming fluctuations may present lower prices, why? This actually involves the issue of execution in a bear market. If you do not actively buy at this price, you will be even less inclined to act if it drops further. When you continuously validate your judgment as correct, you will remain obsessed in a bear market until the bull market starts, and then you will want to build a position again. Therefore, I have always advocated that one should be more active in a bear market and maintain a calm mindset in a bull market.
Thank you.
See original
The crypto world has been ruined by meme coins. In contrast, it becomes ever more apparent how precious and correct the value investment represented by Auntie is. Hope for a promising future!
币姥爷
--
2025年2月16日
昨天阿根廷总统发Libra被大家骂惨了，但是骂归骂，据说人家割了1个多亿美金走，并且根据后续扒料，割的人并非阿根廷总统，而是中国人团队代为运营的。属实的话，就是中国人看到了Trump发币带来的巨大机会，然后通过关系攀上阿根廷总统，然后利用他的名声发币，我猜次是和他谈好了，发一条推特，给几百万美金广告费，然后删掉就可以。
现在币圈真的是被玩坏了，在特朗普发币揭开币圈的遮羞布之后，各路狗庄正变得肆无忌惮起来，不仅没有道德的约束，似乎法律的监管也突然消失了。要说以前，好歹整个白皮书，或者搞点虚假官网和账号运营几个月，现在倒好，直接发个CA出来，币的名字很简单，不是人名，就是狗名。这些币，不仅吸走了币圈的流动性，还破坏了好不容易建立起来的信任感，我们都应该抵制。
关注一下价值走向方面，以太坊基金会最近拿了4.5万枚ETH参与DeFi协议，这些ETH分别部署到AAVE、Compound和Spark（MakerDAO），毫无疑问，这几个是目前DeFi项目的基础协议，也是支柱性的协议，其代币就是我认可的主流币，可以作为价值投资。包括最近的UNI似乎也要发链了，这些TVL和日交易都很不错的协议，未来一定会重新拿回币圈的话语权。
这几天大盘的价格比较稳定，不过山寨还在小幅度的阴跌，按照计划，我把之前冲高出掉的AI板块山寨又接回来了，逻辑我也说过了，价格合理，炒作预期还在。另外我觉得，可以趁着大盘行情低迷，继续建仓可长期价投的项目，我自己还是选择ETH和DeFi项目，DeFi以以太坊链的为主，其他链的项目稍微考虑下BSC。
感谢关注和点赞。点击加入我的币安聊天群。
昨天阿根廷总统发Libra被大家骂惨了，但是骂归骂，据说人家割了1个多亿美金走，并且根据后续扒料，割的人并非阿根廷总统，而是中国人团队代为运营的。属实的话，就是中国人看到了Trump发币带来的巨大机会，然后通过关系攀上阿根廷总统，然后利用他的名声发币，我猜次是和他谈好了，发一条推特，给几百万美金广告费，然后删掉就可以。
现在币圈真的是被玩坏了，在特朗普发币揭开币圈的遮羞布之后，各路狗庄正变得肆无忌惮起来，不仅没有道德的约束，似乎法律的监管也突然消失了。要说以前，好歹整个白皮书，或者搞点虚假官网和账号运营几个月，现在倒好，直接发个CA出来，币的名字很简单，不是人名，就是狗名。这些币，不仅吸走了币圈的流动性，还破坏了好不容易建立起来的信任感，我们都应该抵制。
关注一下价值走向方面，以太坊基金会最近拿了4.5万枚ETH参与DeFi协议，这些ETH分别部署到AAVE、Compound和Spark（MakerDAO），毫无疑问，这几个是目前DeFi项目的基础协议，也是支柱性的协议，其代币就是我认可的主流币，可以作为价值投资。包括最近的UNI似乎也要发链了，这些TVL和日交易都很不错的协议，未来一定会重新拿回币圈的话语权。
这几天大盘的价格比较稳定，不过山寨还在小幅度的阴跌，按照计划，我把之前冲高出掉的AI板块山寨又接回来了，逻辑我也说过了，价格合理，炒作预期还在。另外我觉得，可以趁着大盘行情低迷，继续建仓可长期价投的项目，我自己还是选择ETH和DeFi项目，DeFi以以太坊链的为主，其他链的项目稍微考虑下BSC。
感谢关注和点赞。点击加入我的币安聊天群。
Translate
感觉ai agent 题材可以长期炒作……所以即使被套也不可怕，大资金涌入的时候，它还是会飞
币姥爷
--
2025年2月11日
币安卖币的消息传得沸沸扬扬，根据公开披露的自有资金数据，币安将自有加密资产转为配置稳定币，其中BTC、ETH、SOL几乎是清仓式减持，只有BNB少量减持16%。回头看，币安的这个减持操作，几乎都卖在高点，至于是否会成为今年的高点，目前还不得而知 ，不过币安掌握了二级市场的一手数据，得出卖币的结论还是值得参考的，只是现在的价格已经跌下来，某种程度上来说，也有可能是币安的清仓式减持，助推了2月3日的暴跌。
回顾一下23暴跌行情，二次回踩的价格是最佳入场良机。不过，并非所有币都给了二次回踩的机会，像BTC、ETH、BNB等都没有再次跌至插针价，这说明当时是有非理性的卖单，也就是爆仓清算单下砸造成的。而从山寨的价格来看，二次探底基本上完成了，比如这几天走势强势的AI板块，二次探底基本上在7-8号两天完成了，随后到今天强势反弹，龙头AI16Z已经翻倍有余。
二次探底的价格可以作为抄底的入场点，这个纯属经验之谈，或者说大概率赚钱的操作，但其实并不绝对，比如说ETH就没有给到插针低点的机会，而有的山寨也会跌破，一个是错过机会，一个是被套。另外，为什么选择AI概念还有币安新上的破发币？核心逻辑是这个热点还没有充分炒作，主力资金继续拉盘的概率较大，换句话说就是次新币拉盘比老币要容易。
至于接下来的行情，我不认为会直接马上上攻，但23暴跌的阴霾正在逐渐散去，还是需要震荡行情来消化，继续暴跌的概率并不大，反而可能阴跌来调整。无论如何，现在手上的筹码，在我看来都比较珍贵，整体的话以坚持持有为主，可以拿一些涨幅大的做波段，比如我说的swarms、ai16z，这几天拉的多，如果入场点不错都翻倍了，那就卖一些，不要舍不得。
感谢关注和点赞。
币安卖币的消息传得沸沸扬扬，根据公开披露的自有资金数据，币安将自有加密资产转为配置稳定币，其中BTC、ETH、SOL几乎是清仓式减持，只有BNB少量减持16%。回头看，币安的这个减持操作，几乎都卖在高点，至于是否会成为今年的高点，目前还不得而知 ，不过币安掌握了二级市场的一手数据，得出卖币的结论还是值得参考的，只是现在的价格已经跌下来，某种程度上来说，也有可能是币安的清仓式减持，助推了2月3日的暴跌。
回顾一下23暴跌行情，二次回踩的价格是最佳入场良机。不过，并非所有币都给了二次回踩的机会，像BTC、ETH、BNB等都没有再次跌至插针价，这说明当时是有非理性的卖单，也就是爆仓清算单下砸造成的。而从山寨的价格来看，二次探底基本上完成了，比如这几天走势强势的AI板块，二次探底基本上在7-8号两天完成了，随后到今天强势反弹，龙头AI16Z已经翻倍有余。
二次探底的价格可以作为抄底的入场点，这个纯属经验之谈，或者说大概率赚钱的操作，但其实并不绝对，比如说ETH就没有给到插针低点的机会，而有的山寨也会跌破，一个是错过机会，一个是被套。另外，为什么选择AI概念还有币安新上的破发币？核心逻辑是这个热点还没有充分炒作，主力资金继续拉盘的概率较大，换句话说就是次新币拉盘比老币要容易。
至于接下来的行情，我不认为会直接马上上攻，但23暴跌的阴霾正在逐渐散去，还是需要震荡行情来消化，继续暴跌的概率并不大，反而可能阴跌来调整。无论如何，现在手上的筹码，在我看来都比较珍贵，整体的话以坚持持有为主，可以拿一些涨幅大的做波段，比如我说的swarms、ai16z，这几天拉的多，如果入场点不错都翻倍了，那就卖一些，不要舍不得。
感谢关注和点赞。
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Hahaha I have two
如果你不能持有一个币10年，那么你一分钟都不要持有。我算看清了，这轮牛市韭菜不可能发财了。要我推荐我现在只买三个币，然后卸载软件，或者一直定投，不管牛熊。十年以后在看，而不是天天盯着当韭菜。那三个币呢就是 om sui bgb . 不知道大家怎么看#还有山寨季？ $OM
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作为三个流量比较大的之一SWARMS，关注的时候才0.2，研究差不多了就0.5了，币姥爷，那三个还能追吗？还是挖掘新的？龙头肯定是三个中一个
币姥爷
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2025年1月7日
英伟达市值超越苹果，成为全球第一市值的上市公司，这也意味着AI继续受到资本的青睐。其实不仅仅是互联网圈，币圈何尝不是，当下的最大热门板块非Ai Agent莫属，今天币安再次上线了SWARMS的合约，到目前为止SWARMS、Ai16Z和Virtuals的三大框架格局暂时形成，接下来很可能进入到具体的应用层面。
在与一些朋友交流之后，发现目前大家对Ai Agent的后续还是比较看好，暂且不论项目的技术是否真的能对AI起到什么实质性的影响（真正的AI革命还的Web2大厂来完成），不过AI板块的炒作已经有点势不可挡。目前几个头部项目的市值已经进入10亿俱乐部，而应用类的项目还没有集中爆发，这个值得我们接下来重点关注。
如何去找到潜在的AI Alpha项目，除了媒体平台上比较零散的消息，可以到Ai16Z、Virtuals官网看到，同时一些Web3钱包也有专门的AI专区推荐。在找到单个项目之后，可以进入项目官网研究，看看有没有具体的产品，去使用体验产品，进入社区感受下活跃度和流量，以此判断该项目是否值得投资。以上，是我目前总结的AI项目研究的方法论，后续实操的感受再继续分享。
行情方面，要稍微说说，因为大饼突破10万了 ，尽管市场没什么波澜，但大饼的再次突破，也给山寨的补涨带来点想象的空间。不过，这一波的上涨，我会建议大家逢高把山寨的仓位进一步降低，尤其3月份和上个月都没有怎么涨的币，对山寨季的预期要降低，因为接下来如果Ai Agent如同DeFi Summer一样，会有大量的新山寨项目井喷，资金肯定无暇顾及老山寨。
感谢关注和点赞。
英伟达市值超越苹果，成为全球第一市值的上市公司，这也意味着AI继续受到资本的青睐。其实不仅仅是互联网圈，币圈何尝不是，当下的最大热门板块非Ai Agent莫属，今天币安再次上线了SWARMS的合约，到目前为止SWARMS、Ai16Z和Virtuals的三大框架格局暂时形成，接下来很可能进入到具体的应用层面。
在与一些朋友交流之后，发现目前大家对Ai Agent的后续还是比较看好，暂且不论项目的技术是否真的能对AI起到什么实质性的影响（真正的AI革命还的Web2大厂来完成），不过AI板块的炒作已经有点势不可挡。目前几个头部项目的市值已经进入10亿俱乐部，而应用类的项目还没有集中爆发，这个值得我们接下来重点关注。
如何去找到潜在的AI Alpha项目，除了媒体平台上比较零散的消息，可以到Ai16Z、Virtuals官网看到，同时一些Web3钱包也有专门的AI专区推荐。在找到单个项目之后，可以进入项目官网研究，看看有没有具体的产品，去使用体验产品，进入社区感受下活跃度和流量，以此判断该项目是否值得投资。以上，是我目前总结的AI项目研究的方法论，后续实操的感受再继续分享。
行情方面，要稍微说说，因为大饼突破10万了 ，尽管市场没什么波澜，但大饼的再次突破，也给山寨的补涨带来点想象的空间。不过，这一波的上涨，我会建议大家逢高把山寨的仓位进一步降低，尤其3月份和上个月都没有怎么涨的币，对山寨季的预期要降低，因为接下来如果Ai Agent如同DeFi Summer一样，会有大量的新山寨项目井喷，资金肯定无暇顾及老山寨。
感谢关注和点赞。
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