沙雕分析师

Stop daydreaming about the Shanzhai Season. The market has been bullish in recent years. The coins that should have been pulled have already been pulled. The ones that haven't been pulled will never be played. You thought that the various dog dealers had discussed and deliberately suppressed the price. The dog dealers were eager to pull it up to the sky and sell it to everyone at a high price. To put it bluntly, it can't be pulled up. The market doesn't allow it. Why can't it be pulled up? The reason is that the development of blockchain has stopped at Bitcoin so far. The so-called web3 is a complete scam. There is no application that can be implemented (Twitter founder and Musk have expressed this view a few years ago). This thing is a natural capital disk, pure speculation. After so many years of speculation, it has been seen that it has risen and then collapsed. The cycle repeats, and the quantitative change leads to qualitative change. Funds no longer trust these things. Ask yourself, is there any project that you believe in its future and believe that it can become the next Apple or Google? There is none. . Everyone wants to come in to make quick money and wait for others to take over for you. Now there are not many new people coming in to take over, and you are the one who takes over.

The biggest mistake of Ethereum is abandoning the mining mechanism, allowing Ethereum to lose its cost anchoring. The biggest promoter during the GPU mining era was the GPU manufacturers; Jensen Huang turned GPUs into both unlocked and locked hash rate versions. The original gameplay was that Ethereum increased mining difficulty, the GPU manufacturers released new generations of GPUs, and then mining farms bought in bulk. The GPU manufacturers made profits selling GPUs at high prices, which they then used to buy Ethereum, driving up the coin price. Mining farms increased their mining profits and continued to buy high-priced GPUs, and then off-site institutions saw profits to be made and entered the market to buy Ethereum, causing the coin price to continue to rise. GPU vendors, developers, mining farms, and off-site institutions all made money!
Later, Vitalik and the developers did the math and found that the Ethereum ecosystem chain was surprisingly the most profitable for Jensen Huang, that developers were not making as much money as those selling GPUs, which was unacceptable. So I changed to a certification system with low energy consumption. The business in this world is most afraid of monopolizing profits; Jensen Huang saw that you wanted to monopolize, but I have a huge pile of Ethereum in hand. Anyway, GPUs can’t be sold, so I’ll play with you. You drive the price up, and I’ll sell off, so everyone sees clearly that whenever Ethereum has a strong rebound, there are large sell orders. The huge amount of Ethereum that Jensen Huang accumulated during the mining era has not been sold off yet. If Ethereum still wants to skyrocket, what kind of spring and autumn dream is that?
The low-energy ecosystem chain is the biggest mistake made by Vitalik. Tencent launched Q coins with even lower energy consumption. Tencent might as well launch a blockchain project; after all, Ma’s Q coins could be unified for use in Tencent games. Isn’t this a ready-made ecosystem that is also super low in energy consumption? High energy consumption and GPU mining are Ethereum’s moat. If Vitalik digs up the moat, then it becomes a copycat coin. Tencent quickly put Q coins on the blockchain to ensure Ethereum doesn’t die.

Altcoins are laughable, Bitcoin hasn't moved much and altcoins have dropped again. In the past, when everything fell, altcoins fell even more; now, if the big brother gets a little hurt, altcoins are already in trouble. Please recognize reality, believing in altcoins is not enough to cover the losses.

In the regulated traditional futures market, the underlying assets must have a large spot market supply and demand to avoid price monopolies and ensure market liquidity. For example, energy commodities (crude oil, natural gas), metals (copper, gold), and financial assets (government bonds, stock indices) have become mainstream futures trading varieties due to their massive spot market scale. If the spot scale is insufficient (such as certain niche industrial products), it can easily be manipulated by capital, affecting market fairness. In this unregulated market, capital takes anything to enter contracts for short-term gains. May I ask, which of these counterfeit contracts is not controlled at will by the manipulators? Moreover, with so many contracts continuously draining liquidity from the spot market, manipulators find it easier to control the spot market, which in turn reflects in the contracts becoming increasingly unscrupulous, gradually exhausting market funds, depleting existing forces, and witnessing the disappearance of new forces. The contracts that have emerged are ultimately delisted one after another due to extremely poor liquidity. Consequently, both the reputation of the exchanges and users are lost. Therefore, it is advised not to touch counterfeits and especially not to engage in counterfeit contracts. Wait until almost all counterfeits and counterfeit contracts have been delisted before entering the market for the counterfeit season you are eagerly anticipating.

The fundamentals have not improved, and ETFs and MicroStrategy are not the fundamental reasons for this round of Bitcoin's rise; it is essentially about manipulation. Therefore, Bitcoin will definitely drop, just like it has in countless times before, and at that time, altcoins will only drop even more, with most likely being delisted. The frightening thing is that Bitcoin has not really started to drop yet, while altcoins are nearly gone. Cryptocurrency has already ended; no belief can stop the tide of history.

In the past, I often heard people say that Chinese people trade among themselves, but I haven't seen much of that lately. In fact, most of the coins in this circle are issued by those American bastards, while Asians, especially Chinese users, make up the vast majority in this circle, and they also hold the largest share of capital (the largest number of users from the bankruptcy of the international giant FTX came from China). This is because Chinese people particularly like to make money and have a high savings rate, and they are the ones being cut. These scammers issue coins and manipulate the market at will, either smashing the spot market to sell off or biting into whichever side of the contract is profitable, cutting one batch after another into the market. There aren't many good things, and they are essentially no different from Trump.

In the bear market of 2018, everyone was still full of expectations for the future of cryptocurrency. Now, anyone with their eyes open knows that this is a financial scam. Back then, the market capitalization of various coins was still small, but now these scams have frighteningly large market capitalizations. To put it bluntly, it's all just a facade, and soon they will all go to zero, either in the style of EOS or in the style of OM.

100-10-1-0.1-0.01-0.00000

Directly state the conclusion, pancake 1000 dollars, ether 10 dollars, sol 1 dollar, ripple 0.0000000 dollars, casino closed, American Civil War.

The Background and Reasons for Livermore's Bankrupt Suicide

I. Background of the Stock Market Crash: The Great Depression of 1929 and the Deteriorating Economic Environment

1. The 1929 Stock Market Crash and Market Collapse
From October 24, 1929 ("Black Thursday") to October 29, 1929 ("Black Tuesday"), the U.S. stock market experienced an epic collapse due to excessive speculation and the bursting of leveraged bubbles, with the Dow Jones Index plummeting nearly 90%, plunging the U.S. economy into the Great Depression. Livermore made $100 million (equivalent to about $16.1 billion in 2023) by accurately shorting the market during this crisis, reaching the peak of his wealth.

2. Continued Economic Deterioration and Loss of Market Functionality
After the crash, the U.S. entered a prolonged economic downturn lasting over a decade: bank failures, factory shutdowns, and unemployment rates soaring to 25%, with the New York Stock Exchange temporarily closing and market liquidity drying up. In this environment, Livermore's reliance on "trend following" and "high-leverage speculation" strategies became ineffective, even accelerating his bankruptcy.

3. During the Great Depression, the total number of corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. reached 32,000, with about 60% of listed companies permanently disappearing, and 70% of individual stocks failing to recover; surviving companies took an average of 20 years to regain their former glory.

II. Direct Causes of Bankruptcy: Failure of Trading Strategies and Loss of Risk Control

1. The Fatal Combination of Leverage and Gambler's Mentality
Livermore long relied on high-leverage operations (up to over 10 times), pursuing a "one-shot kill" profit model. In the 1930s, he repeatedly misjudged market direction (such as failing to bottom-fish in 1931 and losing on shorting rebounds in 1932), leading to a rapid evaporation of wealth. By 1934, his assets were only $84,000, while his liabilities reached $2.5 million.

2. Tightening Regulatory Policies and Compressed Speculative Space
In 1934, the U.S. Securities Exchange Act was enacted, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strengthened regulation over market manipulation, insider trading, and leverage. Livermore's expertise in "dark operations" and "price manipulation" strategies were strictly restricted. For instance, the Chicago Trade Commission suspended his trading qualifications in 1934, further cutting off his chances for a turnaround.

$TRUMP Trump Coin is about to be unlocked in large quantities. Some people fantasize that the unlock will trigger a wave of selling. I also indulge in this fantasy; Trump's reputation has recently suffered, and he has been accused of using insider information to manipulate the market for personal gain. Therefore, he will need to tone down his approach and avoid any actions that could be perceived as 'manipulation.' Hence, I anticipate that the price of Trump Coin after unlocking will be determined by market supply and demand, which means it will likely fall.

No matter what, it won't affect the drop. Do scams and Ponzi schemes need a reason to collapse? A more headache-inducing question is, if a flash crash occurs in the future market, which coins can be bought? Because right now, any coin looks like a scam, and it's really hard to see which projects have a real chance of landing in the future and a healthy token incentive mechanism.

The latest hot events, several key opinion leaders (KOLs) seem to have coordinated as they simultaneously invested heavily in a meme coin on the Solana chain called $RFC, making a fortune. The small investors in the community were all amazed and knelt down to ask their mentors for buying strategies. Let me tell you their buying strategy: the RFC project team gave each of these KOLs hundreds of thousands to purchase the wallet they publicly disclosed. The address you see them making hundreds of times profit from is actually the project team's own address, do you understand? I can guarantee that this is exactly what happened because no project team would be foolish enough to help others make so much money, especially in such a poor market situation. If someone really did this, they could just issue a coin with the same name again. The project team hired them as actors, spent a small amount of money to promote the coin, and the KOLs made money and gained some traffic, a win-win situation. The only ones who get hurt are the unsuspecting investors. Remember, whenever you see KOLs promoting trashy imitation coins in various ways, please be cautious and do not fall for scams.

$OM 120th day 365-day moving average Breakthrough pullback point Breakthrough point Fibonacci Drawn all that can be drawn Is it useful?? Useful for the big players The more points they collect, the more goods they can sell A total of 100 million dollars traded in the 4-hour K chart, market value has dropped by more than 10 billion dollars

$OM Let me emphasize again that these coins have no value anchor, and the absolute controller has the pricing power. Once the dealer stops playing, no one on the left side can escape. It is certain that Ripple is also of this type. I now even doubt whether Bitcoin is the same. The price you see now is not the real market price but defined by a certain force. Suddenly, he doesn't want to play anymore.

$BETA has increased 2000 times to break even, you must hold on.

The good news can still rise quite a bit, which only indicates that it is not bearish enough, and quite a few people are still in fantasy. When the good news doesn’t even make a splash or even just a piece of news can cause a drop, that will be truly terrifying. These altcoins, whether they have already plummeted or are still struggling at high positions, whether they are delisted or not, the difference lies in those that have already been abandoned and those that will eventually be abandoned; fundamentally, there is no distinction.

If the decline is due to negative news and the rise is due to positive news, then what about this steep decline? Is it because the positive news is not as plentiful as the negative news, or that the positive news is not as strong as the negative news? Is there any specific standard for quantifying positive and negative news? The answer is that it is fundamentally impossible to measure. The most superficial positive news that everyone can access often hides deadly traps, and those who rely on this to judge future rises and falls are simply inexperienced novices. While positive and negative news can evoke temporary emotions, they do not affect the broader trend. I believe the trend is quite clear—no matter how erratic the behavior, the decline remains unaffected, and this has been the case for a long time, so it is highly likely to continue like this. A decline does not indicate a bottom; any rise from any position should be viewed as a rebound. If there truly is a bottom, it is likely to be a long period of turmoil and consolidation, giving you ample time to get on board.

It has long been said that this is a grand chess game, with the rise of Bitcoin serving as bait to create the illusion of a bull market. The 'local dogs' act as the vanguard, playing a role in supporting the high price of SOL and offloading it. In this process, they continuously introduce new so-called 'revolutionary' coins that are pegged to the market value of SOL. These opportunists rely on financial advantages to arbitrarily set prices and create hotspots, maintaining a fleeting prosperity while slowly throwing away worthless and consensus-less tokens to the public. In the end, they pack up and leave, while you still fantasize that one day they will surprise you. It's truly a grand joke.

These things are all appearances, most likely a large fund account (left hand) buying a lot, and countless small accounts (right hand) selling off. There is a small probability that it has become the sole shareholder through stock manipulation. 🙄