Alpha狙击手

$ETH started to show strength in early May – since then, we have witnessed a surge of over 50%, marking the best monthly performance so far this year.

If you observe the current price trend, you'll find it remarkably similar to the previous movements of $BTC:

A strong impulse rise 🚀

Then entering a narrow channel for consolidation

And now it is building momentum for the next wave of increase 👀

From a capital flow perspective, funds usually first pour into $BTC, then rotate to $ETH. This reinforces the judgment that '$ETH is about to experience a significant breakthrough.'

📈 If we continue to consolidate within the current channel for a while, breaking through the $3000 level will be a high-probability event.

The current trend of ETH is slightly different from BTC, which is actually a strong signal. It is firmly standing above the key area of the fixed range trading volume distribution chart, showing solid support and strength.

If there is a clear upward or downward breakout, we may see larger fluctuations. This is because the price is likely to absorb liquidity at both ends before truly making a directional choice.

Looking ahead, the next two to three months could be crucial for altcoins. Many cryptocurrencies are preparing to break historical highs, and one of the most potential coins currently is BNB. I will share a complete analysis in the next tweet.

Global stablecoin leader Circle recently announced the expansion of its IPO issuance scale to 150 million shares, with the share pricing range raised to $18-20, aiming to raise a maximum amount of $3 billion (including the green shoe option). This adjustment is due to strong demand from institutional investors — during the roadshow, the order volume reached 8 times the issuance scale, with market enthusiasm far exceeding expectations.
Core business and fundraising purposes
USDC ecosystem: The stablecoin USDC has a market value exceeding $25 billion, accounting for 40% of the stablecoin market share
Cross-border payments: Network coverage in 100+ countries, supports real-time exchange of 50+ fiat currencies
Institutional DeFi: Collaborating with Coinbase, BlackRock, Fidelity, etc. to expand compliant DeFi solutions

TC failed to hold above the 100-day moving average after retesting, and has now fallen below that moving average again.

However, the price remains above the upward trend line and the point of control (POC) level.

If the triangle pattern is broken and successfully retested, a bullish signal will be confirmed; conversely, if it is rejected and falls below the triangle, completing the retest, a bearish trend will be confirmed.

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Price struggles below the resistance zone of $3.28 trillion to $3.31 trillion. This is a key level preventing the continuation of the bull market.

⚠️ Head and Shoulders Pattern:

A bearish head and shoulders pattern is clearly visible; a breakout of the neckline indicates potential downside risk.

Left Shoulder: Formed in early May
Head: Peak in mid-May
Right Shoulder: Possible lower high in late May
Neckline Support: Approximately $3.17 trillion to $3.20 trillion area
🔻 Failure Scenario:

If the neckline is (decisively) broken, price may move towards the ($3.04 trillion support zone)

BTC is currently oscillating within a symmetrical triangle pattern. The price recently rebounded from the support trend line and is now attempting to break through the 100-day moving average.
If it successfully breaks through and backtests the 100-day moving average, it may attempt to hit the triangle's resistance trend line.

If the breakout is confirmed and backtests the upper edge of the triangle, it will constitute a strong bullish signal. Before that, BTC may continue to consolidate within the triangle.

On the downside risk, if it breaks and backtests the triangle's support level, it may trigger a downward trend.

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🔹Entry Price @ 0.956
🔹Stop Loss Level: 0.890** Now

🔹Entry Price @ 0.956
🔹Stop Loss Level: 0.890

Has regained an important support level on a higher time frame (HTF), currently undergoing a backtest

Regarding the invalidation zone, if the 4-hour close is below 0.923 (-3%), the trade is invalid, and we can close the position
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#BTC-ETF：
Net outflow: -7,157 BTC ($745.93 million)🔴
BlackRock outflow of 4,113 BTC ($428.65 million), currently holding 660,842 BTC ($6.888 billion)

#ETH-ETF：
Net inflow: +26,572 ETH ($6.665 million)🟢
BlackRock inflow of 27,241 ETH ($6.832 million), currently holding 1,417,021 ETH ($355 million)

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$BTC is being sold off every time it rebounds, and the few spot buy orders trying to push the price up are ultimately absorbed.
But this wave of selling seems to be far from over.

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A bullish shark pattern is forming. High-risk short-term trading, use low leverage

Entry point: 2435 - 2482

Target: 2508 - 2540 - 2600 - 2800

Stop loss: 2415

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BTC has rebounded from the potential reversal area and POC level of the bullish bat pattern, and is currently attempting to break through the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
If it successfully breaks through and confirms the retest of EMA100, it will establish a bullish reversal trend; conversely, if it is blocked here, it may indicate that the price will decline again.

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🔹Descending Channel Pattern (Bullish)

🔹The price is expected to break above the trendline soon.

🔹Current price is $0.67

🔹We have a resistance zone at $0.70.

🔹Once the price breaks out and closes above this area.

🔹We can consider long trades.

🔹Target price is above $0.76
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
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BTC has fallen below the horizontal trend line after a false breakout. This may indicate that the market is about to experience a rebound.

The price has simultaneously breached the POC support level and is currently undergoing a retest from below. If the retest below POC is successful, it will confirm the bearish trend.

However, if BTC can regain a stable position above POC with increased volume, it suggests that bullish momentum may return to the market.

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If we successfully hold it, we will operate accordingly. But if it falls and closes below, we will stop loss promptly and wait for a clearer entry opportunity to re-enter.

The market is currently in a manipulation phase... We remain cautious before breaking through the historical high area. There is no need to force trades.

Strictly adhere to stop loss discipline. Protect principal safety. Let the market prove the direction itself.

High-quality trading opportunities will eventually appear; we just need to wait for a real breakthrough or confirmed rebound. Stay focused and patient.

Let's catch the next wave of market movement soon.

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BTC encountered resistance and fell back at the dashed trend line, currently trading above the channel support trend line, with the 50-day moving average also providing support.

If it breaks through and retests the dashed trend line, it will confirm a bullish trend, while breaking down and retesting the channel support will indicate a bearish trend.