🔼 On the charts — there is an amazing symmetry between the current cycle and the past altseason.
➡️ In 2024, altcoins gained +101% after 13 weeks of consolidation and sideways movement below the trend line — the surge occurred literally 5 weeks after exiting stagnation.
✏️ Right now — we are again in 13 weeks of consolidation at support, the historical pattern is repeating almost tick for tick: sideways movement, decline in interest, but the trend is not breaking.
✏️ Similar movements have been observed after capitulations in Bitcoin bear markets (for example, a -40% crash in three days in 2014, after which a sharp rebound began).
✏️ If the cycle repeats — we are in for a new impulse, just like a year ago.
✏️ Market psychology remains unchanged: when everyone is tired of waiting and believing — that’s when the moment for upward movement arrives.
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🪙 Elon Musk announced support for Bitcoin with his new political party America Party!
✏️ In response to a question on social media X, he stated: "Traditional (fiat) money is hopeless, so yes." This statement highlights his commitment to introducing cryptocurrency into the political arena.
✏️ The creation of America Party was a reaction to the recent conflict with Donald Trump over the $3.4 trillion bill, which Musk characterized as "an abominable atrocity." In response, Trump noted that third parties in the US have not been successful and are unlikely to change anything.
The U.S. House of Representatives has declared the week starting July 14 as "Cryptocurrency Week," during which lawmakers will consider three key bills:
CLARITY Act — a proposal to create clear rules for digital assets;
Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act — a ban on the issuance of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) to protect the financial privacy of citizens;
GENIUS Act — a Senate bill regulating stablecoins and the infrastructure of cryptocurrency markets.
📈 The increase in the global money supply (M2) reached 8.77% year-on-year — the highest since the end of 2021.
➡️ Historically, spikes in liquidity have coincided with bull runs in $BTC (for example, 2020–2021, 2017).
👀 Despite the volatility, the long-term trend for $BTC remains upward: the market expects that the next wave of M2 growth could drive the price to $120,000.
❗ Israel has attacked Iran's nuclear facilities — markets in shock
Last night, Israel carried out about 300 strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. The goal is to stop Tehran's nuclear program.
Statements from the parties: — Iran: "The Israeli regime should expect severe retaliation" — Israel: "The operation will last as long as necessary" — USA: "We will protect Israel if Iran responds" — Trump
At the same time, the USA denies involvement in the attack.
📉 Markets: — BTC falls to $103k — Altcoins are down — Gold is heading to ATH — Oil is rising, $74
◾️ Crypto reacts, like other risk assets ◾️ The region is escalating — this threatens the global economy