I'm skeptical of the dozens of "new payment rails for agents" startups emerging BUT I'm rooting for the stablecoin-based ones regardless b/c I would like to see micropayments enabled at scale
At first glance, Coinbase acquiring Circle doesn't make sense - Coinbase already receives the majority of interest revenue and is the dominant USDC distributor
So, what would be the reasons Coinbase could be interested in an acquisition?
1) Their distributor deal may be nearing renegotiation and they're set to receive less revenue. Coinbase could issue their own stablecoin, but USDC may have brand stickiness with consumers + network effects in DeFi
2) There's unrealized upside in components of the Circle's nascent payment network and Coinbase thinks they could somehow supercharge it
3) Maybe Coinbase sees a way to build stronger distribution partnerships. If Coinbase owns the full stablecoin stack, they might be willing to sacrifice some of their own interest revenue in order to give other exchanges good deals and grow overall USDC supply
4) It might be offensive defense - acquire Circle so another competitor doesn't