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The ONE Altcoin Korean Traders Could Soon Chase

👇1-11) Crypto retail traders have been in hibernation since the Trump inauguration, but this could change soon as many seem to be overlooking what the underlying data is signaling.

A major shift may already be underway — even as, in the short term, the $94,000–$95,000 resistance zone we previously highlighted continues to cap Bitcoin’s rally.

👇2-11) Two of our reversal indicators have turned bearish, and the stochastics oscillator has risen to 95%, further suggesting short-term downside risk.

However, this may represent a consolidation phase before a potential breakout above $100,000.

This consolidation phase will be short - in the meantime, we are betting on THIS altcoin…

👇3-11) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-one-altcoin-korean-traders-could-soon-chase

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Bitcoin: A Smash Move Is Coming

👇1-13) In our February 4 report, with Bitcoin trading near $100,000, we identified a Diamond Top pattern formation and warned of an impending correction.

A break below the critical $95,000 support — our key technical trigger — confirmed the pattern.

👇2-13) By February 25, Bitcoin had not only breached $95,000 but also the short-term holder realized price, triggering a wave of liquidations.

As the technical structure shifted into an ascending broadening wedge, we outlined further downside risk with a target of $73,000.

Bitcoin ultimately fell to $74,400, within less than $1,400 of our projected level.

👇3-13) By April 13, with Bitcoin trading at $85,322, we shifted back to a bullish stance.

Although we did not capture the exact low, the technical setup pointed clearly to a +10% rally.

Having been vocal bears at $95,000 — and bulls from $85,000 — our alpha over Bitcoin during the past two months reached +11%.

It is critical to consistently compound such outperformance, particularly by eliminating the left-tail risks that have historically challenged Bitcoin investors.

This underscores the value of these Market Updates, driven by market structure, on-chain data, technicals, and sentiment analysis.

👇4-13) Bitcoin has rallied back to the $94,000–$95,000 zone — exactly where we expected (see our video) — but has stalled at this critical resistance.

👇5-13) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-a-smash-move-is-coming

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Bitcoin Smashes $95K as Altcoins Surge on Institutional FOMO, DeFi Boom, and Regulatory Tailwinds

Crypto markets surged broadly this week, led by Bitcoin’s breakout above $95,000 amid easing macro risks, record ETF inflows, and a weaker dollar.

Altcoins followed strongly, fueled by rising institutional interest, ecosystem growth, DeFi momentum, and positive regulatory signals.

Crypto Trends Chart Book: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why.

Full report: https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-trends-chart-book-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-084e

👇1-12) #Bitcoin surged past $95,000, driven by eased U.S.-China trade tensions, record Bitcoin ETF inflows, a weaker dollar, easing Fed crypto rules, and tightened supply from corporate buying.

👇2-12) @solana rose 6.7% this week, supported by institutional buying, DeFi growth, a major short squeeze, and meme coin activity within its ecosystem.

👇3-12) @Ripple XRP gained modestly following CME’s launch of XRP futures and growing banking integration, although legal risks continued to cap enthusiasm.

👇4-12) #Stellar XLM rallied 18.1% after partnering with South Asia’s largest retailer, rising trading volumes, and tailwinds from relaxed U.S. crypto banking rules.

👇5-12) Polkadot climbed 10.1% despite the SEC delaying ETF decisions, with optimism persisting around eventual approval and broader crypto market openness.

👇6-12) @SuiNetwork SUI skyrocketed 64.3% amid explosive DEX growth, stablecoin expansion, and speculation around major partnerships like Pokémon and Mastercard.

👇7-12) @RaydiumProtocol RAY gained 27.9% on new trading incentives tied to meme coin pools and broader DeFi momentum on Solana’s blockchain.

👇8-12) @aave jumped 21.5%, helped by a strong Bitcoin rally, a $50 million buyback plan, GHO stablecoin growth, and rising total value locked.

👇9-12) @realDonaldTrump token soared 86% after a dinner announcement with Trump, despite political controversy, fueling speculation and renewed investor interest.

Full report on our website...

Bitcoin/SP500: Pay-to-Play Is Back

👇1-22) No, the title doesn't refer to Trump’s private crypto meetings—where a select few seem to benefit disproportionately by having insider access, or to those suspiciously timed upside call option purchases ahead of tariff truce announcements, or even to closed-door sessions where Treasury Secretary Bessent drops subtle hints that send markets surging shortly after.

👇2-22) Instead, it points to trading strategies that now make sense to consider, as a broader market shift is underway—one that’s likely to catch many investors off guard.

👇3-22) The U.S. stock market is approaching a key technical level—one that initially acted as support in late February but turned into resistance in late March after momentum from the 90-day tariff truce announcement faded.

While relatively straightforward trade agreements with countries like India, Israel, South Korea, and Japan were expected, negotiations with China remain contentious.

Trump continues to suggest progress is being made, while Chinese officials deny that meaningful talks are even underway.

👇4-22) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-sp500-pay-to-play-is-back

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Tide Turns: Bitcoin $$$ Inflows Reignite Rally - $100,000 Possible

👇1-10) As anticipated, Bitcoin has resumed its bullish trend.
The next key resistance zone lies in the $94,000–$95,000 range, which aligns with our target for this move.

However, whether this level can be decisively broken will depend heavily on broader market sentiment and the performance of risk assets.
👇2-10) This week highlights the core value of our research: identifying shifts in risk/reward and signaling when markets transition from bearish to bullish and vice versa.
We reinforced this view with a technical analysis video released two days ago (here), which reemphasized and predicted this Bitcoin breakout.
👇3-10) This is the week when several key trade deals are expected to be finalized.
Yet, Trump appears to be backing down on two major fronts—softening his tariff rhetoric after China called his bluff and easing his push for Powell’s resignation.
These developments are contributing to a broader risk-on sentiment, which was already anticipated by our trend-following indicators.
👇4-10) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/tide-turns-bitcoin-inflows-reignite-rally-100-000-possible
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Bitcoin Mining Stocks - A Compelling Trade ???

👇1-13) We have rarely recommended a bullish stance on publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies, and as the cycle progressed, we've largely avoided them.

However, with many of these stocks now down 50% or more, we’ve received many questions about whether current levels present attractive entry points, especially as Bitcoin shows signs of recovery, and the U.S. dollar weakens.

Bitcoin continues to serve as a potential macro hedge.

👇2-13) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-mining-stocks-a-compelling-trade

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Bitcoin Breakout? 6 Charts Making the Bullish Case

👇1-6) Bitcoin appears to be breaking out of a downtrend channel, closely resembling the classic Falling Wedge pattern.

This formation is characterized by two converging, downward-sloping trendlines and typically signals a bullish continuation or reversal, particularly when it forms during a corrective phase within a broader uptrend.

A key feature of this pattern is a gradual decline in volume throughout the wedge, followed by a sharp increase upon breakout, confirming the move.

👇2-6) Full report: https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-breakout-6-charts-making-the-bullish-case

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Bitcoin FOMO Trading Is Dead - Here’s How to Still Make Money

👇1-15) Despite a +113% return in 2024, most of Bitcoin’s gains came during just two months (February +44% and November +37%).

We were strongly bullish during those two months (here) but adopted a more cautious stance over the summer—tactically, this was the right call.

Given Bitcoin’s historical tendency to perform better between October and March, and to consolidate between April and September, it makes sense to adopt a more conservative, seasonally aware approach during this part of the year.

👇2-15) In 2024, a simple buy-and-hold strategy likely outperformed most actively traded approaches, supported by strong demand from newly launched Bitcoin ETFs, primarily driven by Wall Street’s marketing push.

With $35 billion in inflows, ETF demand landed within our projected $20–40 billion range for the first year.

Bitcoin’s strong performance was also fueled by U.S. government stimulus to boost asset prices, create a feel-good environment ahead of the Presidential election, and a dovish Fed stance amid falling inflation expectations.

The three key drivers of last year’s rally—a dovish Fed, government stimulus, and strong ETF demand—have notably reversed.

👇3-15) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-fomo-trading-is-dead-here-s-how-to-still-make-money

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Is Bitcoin’s On-Chain Data Starting to Turn Bullish?

👇1-15) Several of our on-chain indicators have been signaling a Bitcoin correction since February.

At the same time, the technical breakdown from an ascending broadening wedge confirmed the move (see February 25 report), the on-chain data provided early conviction of a more sustained decline.

The break below the short-term realized price triggered a wave of liquidations, initiating the sharp drop from $95,000.

We’re now approaching a critical juncture where it’s important to reassess these on-chain metrics to determine whether they are nearing a bullish reversal or still firmly in bearish territory.

👇2-15) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/is-bitcoin-s-on-chain-data-starting-to-turn-bullish

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Not Money Supply: The Real Liquidity Metric That Drives Bitcoin

👇1-14) As anticipated, Fed Chair Powell confirmed that the Federal Reserve will likely remain on hold for an extended period.

The introduction of larger-than-expected tariffs will push inflation higher while slowing growth. Powell emphasized the need for more data before considering any changes to interest rates.

👇2-14) He also dismissed the marginal impact that DOGE-related savings might have on discretionary spending, instead shifting focus toward addressing government debt and deficits.

These remarks suggest that monetary policy will remain restrictive and offer limited support for Bitcoin until inflation declines meaningfully, which is unlikely before the summer.

👇3-14) Overlaying Bitcoin with the Global Money Supply (M2 from 28 central banks), shifted forward by 13 weeks, has provided a remarkably accurate projection of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past 18 months.

While the chart is visually compelling, we believe Bitcoin is more likely to respond to a different, more relevant liquidity metric.

👇4-14)  Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/not-money-supply-the-real-liquidity-metric-that-drives-bitcoin…

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Video: Bitcoin: No Longer 'Long Only'
Please find our latest video, which has an incredible number of charts in quick succession. If you have any feedback or suggestions, please let us know at [email protected].

The link to the written report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-no-longer-long-only

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVv3b0hhfS0

Bitcoin: No Longer 'Long Only' ???

👇1-13) Year-to-date, Bitcoin ETF inflows stand at just +$225 million—and they could turn negative at any moment as the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade war continues to ripple through financial markets.

Bitcoin ETFs are on track for their third consecutive month of outflows.

As we highlighted in early February, much of the initial ETF inflows were driven not by outright demand but by arbitrage-focused hedge funds.

👇2-13) Recent flow data has primarily confirmed this view.
However, a new class of buyers has also emerged—one that has had a meaningful impact on the market.

The key question now is whether this buyer is returning—and if so, does that justify a broadly bullish outlook?

👇3-13) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-no-longer-long-only

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A (Short-Term) Constructive Turn in Bitcoin?

👇1-12) Trump has continued to scale back his tariff threats, with each retreat reinforcing the perception that China’s assertive response caught him off guard.

He’s lending credibility to critics who argue that the trade standoff may be more theatrical than strategic.

👇2-12) Despite the political noise, consumer confidence remains subdued, and recession risks persist—especially if inflation resurges and credit spreads widen.

This suggests the market could be entering a prolonged corrective phase, during which the Federal Reserve will likely stay on hold.

👇3-12) However, stronger-than-expected retail spending data—reflecting pre-tariff announcement behavior—due next week could temporarily boost sentiment.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s technical outlook has improved, with several indicators turning more constructive.

👇4-12) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/a-short-term-constructive-turn-in-bitcoin

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What Widening U.S. Credit Spreads Mean for Bitcoin: Risk or Opportunity?

See also our YouTube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4bFuT0GmdU

👇1-15) The marginal buyer of Bitcoin may increasingly be U.S. investors concerned about a sharply weakening dollar as global capital continues to exit U.S. financial markets. This dynamic is the flip side of running (and attempting to reverse) a persistent trade deficit—its consequences now becoming evident not just in the declining value of the dollar and rising bond yields but also through stress in the credit markets and continued pressure on U.S. equities.

👇2-15) As we highlighted in yesterday’s report, it remains premature to adopt a bullish stance. With capital flowing out of the U.S., the euro appears to be emerging as a relatively safer haven in the current environment. The 90-day tariff truce was a clear attempt to stabilize spiking U.S. Treasury yields—but with yields now threatening to retest their recent highs, the move seems to have backfired, highlighting the market’s skepticism and the limits of such short-term interventions.

👇3-15) As measured by the ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread, credit spreads continue to widen, indicating that recessionary concerns may be seeping deeper into the economy. Historically, this has posed a headwind for Bitcoin. Short-term risks remain elevated, while the longer-term implications can be bullish—especially as Bitcoin has tended to benefit from the monetary easing that typically follows Fed rate cuts. But expecting a bullish impulse is too early.

👇4-15) If we look at the last two instances when the year-over-year change in credit spreads began to widen, as it is now, Bitcoin tended to struggle both in terms of time (with recoveries taking 4–6 months) and price (with further downside before a bottom was reached). This pattern suggests that while a longer-term opportunity may emerge.

👇4-15) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/what-widening-u-s-credit-spreads-mean-for-bitcoin-risk-or-opportunity
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What Widening U.S. Credit Spreads Mean for Bitcoin: Risk or Opportunity?

👇1-15) The marginal buyer of Bitcoin may increasingly be U.S. investors concerned about a sharply weakening dollar as global capital continues to exit U.S. financial markets.

This dynamic is the flip side of running (and attempting to reverse) a persistent trade deficit—its consequences now becoming evident not just in the dollar's declining value and rising bond yields but also through stress in the credit markets and continued pressure on U.S. equities.

👇2-15) As we highlighted in yesterday’s report, it remains premature to adopt a bullish stance.

With capital flowing out of the U.S., the euro appears to be emerging as a relatively safer haven in the current environment.

The 90-day tariff truce was a clear attempt to stabilize spiking U.S. Treasury yields—but with yields now threatening to retest their recent highs, the move seems to have backfired, highlighting the market’s skepticism and the limits of such short-term interventions.

👇3-15) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/what-widening-u-s-credit-spreads-mean-for-bitcoin-risk-or-opportunity

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Trump Played 5D Chess against Himself—and Still Managed to 'Win'

👇1-14) Treasury Secretary Bessent is no stranger to chess—he even named the hedge fund he managed before entering government after a key chess concept (Key Square).

He and other supporters had been cheering on Trump as the President appeared to be playing a high-stakes game against himself.

👇2-14) Each move was executed precisely, as if thinking five steps ahead—until he backed his opponent into a corner.

There could only be one winner, but just before Trump could outmaneuver himself, he abruptly folded—an unexpected twist that, paradoxically, many had anticipated.

The tariff calculations were wildly unrealistic, and the timeline was impossibly short.

👇3-14) While Bessent repeatedly denied that Trump was concerned about the stock market's sharp decline, it was, in fact, those losses that alarmed him.

He conveyed that concern directly to the President, a warning that soon echoed into the bond market as well.

As with much of the administration's approach, the pivot was riddled with contradictions.

👇4-14) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/trump-played-5d-chess-against-himself-and-still-managed-to-win

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Bitcoin, SP500 -> Fear THIS

👇1-20) In yesterday’s report, we warned that it was too early to buy the dip, flagging the overly optimistic China headlines as a potential trap for investors.

Going against the crowd is never easy—especially when sentiment remained upbeat just a day ago—but we emphasized this was not the moment to step in.

👇2-20) Our analysis of the VIX inversion further supported this view, signaling that more downside volatility was likely still ahead.

It was easy to be caught off guard by last week’s tariff announcement—especially given Trump’s past pattern of postponing tariffs on Mexico and Canada and media reports suggesting any new measures would be narrowly targeted.

👇3-20) The White House may have deliberately planted these misleading signals to keep investors unhedged and maximize (global) stock market damage.

While many still view this as a short-term risk, we warned yesterday that a deal with China was unlikely—and this now carries major implications for Bitcoin.

👇4-20) On Monday, the administration likely floated a fake “90-day truce”.

It claimed China’s willingness to negotiate to stem the sell-off as margin calls escalated and funds faced potential blow-ups.

This was the narrative Treasury Secretary Bessent pushed to soothe markets—arguing that China had no option but to accept Trump’s demands.

However, contrary to popular belief, significant risks remain for Bitcoin.

To understand those risks, its essential to understand what is going on.

👇5-20) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/fear-this

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Will China Bend the Knee Tonight?? SP500, Bitcoin...

👇1-13) The White House appeared to panic on Monday, releasing a flurry of headlines suggesting an emergency Fed meeting, a potential 90-day truce in tariff negotiations, and progress with talks involving 50—later revised to 70—countries, with deals like Japan’s expected to be announced soon.

But those headlines appeared primarily aimed at halting the stock market’s sharp decline.

👇2-13) Treasury Secretary Bessent was positioned as the calm macroeconomic voice, while Trump's aggressive tariff spokesperson, Lutnick, was noticeably dialed back.

Behind the scenes, Bessent reportedly flew to Florida on Sunday to urge Trump to address the tariff endgame publicly, fearing that without reassurance, the stock market could plunge even further.

There’s only one question that truly matters: Will China bend the knee and cave in—or escalate the fight?

👇3-14) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/will-china-bend-the-knee-tonight-sp500-bitcoin

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China’s Shockwave Is Coming—Will Bitcoin Break?

👇1-14) Although Bitcoin had been more resilient than equities—and we expected it to outperform other cryptocurrencies (here)—we also warned it was still at risk of a sharp drop (here).

While many traders remain optimistic and eager to find a silver lining in the market turmoil, growing pressure in China poses a serious threat.

With Beijing refusing to back down to Trump’s demands, the situation could escalate further, potentially triggering a broader selloff in Bitcoin and the crypto market.

👇2-14) The broader strategy isn’t about reducing U.S. debt servicing costs, as some optimists suggest while dismissing the recent market downturn as temporary.

Instead, Trump—alongside top advisor Peter Navarro—is implementing the hardline China strategy they were unable to execute fully during his first term.

👇3-14) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/china-s-shockwave-is-coming-will-bitcoin-break

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