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https://update.10xresearch.com/p/why-the-140-000-bitcoin-target-isn-t-as-easy-as-it-sounds-0387
10xResearch
--
Why the $140,000 Bitcoin Target Isn’t as Easy as It Sounds
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin has delivered an impressive rally this year, but momentum may be fading just as the calendar turns to its weakest stretch.
Behind the headlines of ETF inflows and bullish price targets lies a more nuanced reality: capital appears to be peaking, not accelerating.
For five straight months, our seasonal model has accurately tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory—and it’s now flashing a very different signal.
A subtle shift in on-chain data, weakening market structure, and a void of fresh catalysts could all combine into a new phase.
The market doesn’t yet realize it, but time may be running out. What happens next could force even the most optimistic forecasts to reset.
Main argument
Over the past five months, our seasonal Bitcoin model has closely aligned with actual market performance.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to underperform in January following a strong fourth quarter—but in 2025, it rallied instead, driven by optimism around a crypto-friendly Trump presidency.
February, which typically sees a rebound, underperformed this year. However, since March, the model has reliably tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory.
For July, we projected a +9.1% gain (here), and Bitcoin is currently up +9.8%, underscoring the model’s effectiveness in capturing market seasonality.
Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point—not just driven by seasonal trends or market structure, but by a key on-chain indicator that may offer early insight into its next major move, as we detail below.
Read the full report: link in bio/comments
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin has delivered an impressive rally this year, but momentum may be fading just as the calendar turns to its weakest stretch.
Behind the headlines of ETF inflows and bullish price targets lies a more nuanced reality: capital appears to be peaking, not accelerating.
For five straight months, our seasonal model has accurately tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory—and it’s now flashing a very different signal.
A subtle shift in on-chain data, weakening market structure, and a void of fresh catalysts could all combine into a new phase.
The market doesn’t yet realize it, but time may be running out. What happens next could force even the most optimistic forecasts to reset.
Main argument
Over the past five months, our seasonal Bitcoin model has closely aligned with actual market performance.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to underperform in January following a strong fourth quarter—but in 2025, it rallied instead, driven by optimism around a crypto-friendly Trump presidency.
February, which typically sees a rebound, underperformed this year. However, since March, the model has reliably tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory.
For July, we projected a +9.1% gain (here), and Bitcoin is currently up +9.8%, underscoring the model’s effectiveness in capturing market seasonality.
Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point—not just driven by seasonal trends or market structure, but by a key on-chain indicator that may offer early insight into its next major move, as we detail below.
Read the full report: link in bio/comments
Why the $140,000 Bitcoin Target Isn’t as Easy as It Sounds
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin has delivered an impressive rally this year, but momentum may be fading just as the calendar turns to its weakest stretch.
Behind the headlines of ETF inflows and bullish price targets lies a more nuanced reality: capital appears to be peaking, not accelerating.
For five straight months, our seasonal model has accurately tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory—and it’s now flashing a very different signal.
A subtle shift in on-chain data, weakening market structure, and a void of fresh catalysts could all combine into a new phase.
The market doesn’t yet realize it, but time may be running out. What happens next could force even the most optimistic forecasts to reset.
Main argument
Over the past five months, our seasonal Bitcoin model has closely aligned with actual market performance.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to underperform in January following a strong fourth quarter—but in 2025, it rallied instead, driven by optimism around a crypto-friendly Trump presidency.
February, which typically sees a rebound, underperformed this year. However, since March, the model has reliably tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory.
For July, we projected a +9.1% gain (here), and Bitcoin is currently up +9.8%, underscoring the model’s effectiveness in capturing market seasonality.
Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point—not just driven by seasonal trends or market structure, but by a key on-chain indicator that may offer early insight into its next major move, as we detail below.
Read the full report: link in bio/comments
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin has delivered an impressive rally this year, but momentum may be fading just as the calendar turns to its weakest stretch.
Behind the headlines of ETF inflows and bullish price targets lies a more nuanced reality: capital appears to be peaking, not accelerating.
For five straight months, our seasonal model has accurately tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory—and it’s now flashing a very different signal.
A subtle shift in on-chain data, weakening market structure, and a void of fresh catalysts could all combine into a new phase.
The market doesn’t yet realize it, but time may be running out. What happens next could force even the most optimistic forecasts to reset.
Main argument
Over the past five months, our seasonal Bitcoin model has closely aligned with actual market performance.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to underperform in January following a strong fourth quarter—but in 2025, it rallied instead, driven by optimism around a crypto-friendly Trump presidency.
February, which typically sees a rebound, underperformed this year. However, since March, the model has reliably tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory.
For July, we projected a +9.1% gain (here), and Bitcoin is currently up +9.8%, underscoring the model’s effectiveness in capturing market seasonality.
Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point—not just driven by seasonal trends or market structure, but by a key on-chain indicator that may offer early insight into its next major move, as we detail below.
Read the full report: link in bio/comments
Why the $140,000 Bitcoin Target Isn’t as Easy as It Sounds
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin has delivered an impressive rally this year, but momentum may be fading just as the calendar turns to its weakest stretch.
Behind the headlines of ETF inflows and bullish price targets lies a more nuanced reality: capital appears to be peaking, not accelerating.
For five straight months, our seasonal model has accurately tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory—and it’s now flashing a very different signal.
A subtle shift in on-chain data, weakening market structure, and a void of fresh catalysts could all combine into a new phase.
The market doesn’t yet realize it, but time may be running out. What happens next could force even the most optimistic forecasts to reset.
Main argument
Over the past five months, our seasonal Bitcoin model has closely aligned with actual market performance.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to underperform in January following a strong fourth quarter—but in 2025, it rallied instead, driven by optimism around a crypto-friendly Trump presidency.
February, which typically sees a rebound, underperformed this year. However, since March, the model has reliably tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory.
For July, we projected a +9.1% gain (here), and Bitcoin is currently up +9.8%, underscoring the model’s effectiveness in capturing market seasonality.
Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point—not just driven by seasonal trends or market structure, but by a key on-chain indicator that may offer early insight into its next major move, as we detail below.
Read the full report: link in bio/comments
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin has delivered an impressive rally this year, but momentum may be fading just as the calendar turns to its weakest stretch.
Behind the headlines of ETF inflows and bullish price targets lies a more nuanced reality: capital appears to be peaking, not accelerating.
For five straight months, our seasonal model has accurately tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory—and it’s now flashing a very different signal.
A subtle shift in on-chain data, weakening market structure, and a void of fresh catalysts could all combine into a new phase.
The market doesn’t yet realize it, but time may be running out. What happens next could force even the most optimistic forecasts to reset.
Main argument
Over the past five months, our seasonal Bitcoin model has closely aligned with actual market performance.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to underperform in January following a strong fourth quarter—but in 2025, it rallied instead, driven by optimism around a crypto-friendly Trump presidency.
February, which typically sees a rebound, underperformed this year. However, since March, the model has reliably tracked Bitcoin’s trajectory.
For July, we projected a +9.1% gain (here), and Bitcoin is currently up +9.8%, underscoring the model’s effectiveness in capturing market seasonality.
Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point—not just driven by seasonal trends or market structure, but by a key on-chain indicator that may offer early insight into its next major move, as we detail below.
Read the full report: link in bio/comments
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/billions-keep-pouring-into-crypto-so-why-could-today-mark-a-major-reversal-4cc9
10xResearch
--
Billions Keep Pouring Into Crypto—So Why Could Today Mark a Major Reversal?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Crypto markets appear strong on the surface, but not everything is as it seems.
Treasury-backed inflows are making headlines, and Ethereum ETF demand is accelerating—but under the hood, cracks may be forming.
Volumes are shifting, funding dynamics are changing, and NAV premiums are quietly retreating.
While institutional names dominate the narrative, retail may be unknowingly stepping into a different game.
There’s a key reason MicroStrategy isn’t raising cash through new common share offerings—and it’s linked to a dynamic that has historically fueled Bitcoin’s rallies.
Our real-time indicators now suggest a high probability that today could set the tone for the remainder of the summer.
In the analysis below, we break down the signals that investors should watch closely, as the implications could be significant not just for Bitcoin but also for Ethereum and the broader altcoin market.
Read the full report: link in bio/comments
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Crypto markets appear strong on the surface, but not everything is as it seems.
Treasury-backed inflows are making headlines, and Ethereum ETF demand is accelerating—but under the hood, cracks may be forming.
Volumes are shifting, funding dynamics are changing, and NAV premiums are quietly retreating.
While institutional names dominate the narrative, retail may be unknowingly stepping into a different game.
There’s a key reason MicroStrategy isn’t raising cash through new common share offerings—and it’s linked to a dynamic that has historically fueled Bitcoin’s rallies.
Our real-time indicators now suggest a high probability that today could set the tone for the remainder of the summer.
In the analysis below, we break down the signals that investors should watch closely, as the implications could be significant not just for Bitcoin but also for Ethereum and the broader altcoin market.
Read the full report: link in bio/comments
Billions Keep Pouring Into Crypto—So Why Could Today Mark a Major Reversal?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Crypto markets appear strong on the surface, but not everything is as it seems.
Treasury-backed inflows are making headlines, and Ethereum ETF demand is accelerating—but under the hood, cracks may be forming.
Volumes are shifting, funding dynamics are changing, and NAV premiums are quietly retreating.
While institutional names dominate the narrative, retail may be unknowingly stepping into a different game.
There’s a key reason MicroStrategy isn’t raising cash through new common share offerings—and it’s linked to a dynamic that has historically fueled Bitcoin’s rallies.
Our real-time indicators now suggest a high probability that today could set the tone for the remainder of the summer.
In the analysis below, we break down the signals that investors should watch closely, as the implications could be significant not just for Bitcoin but also for Ethereum and the broader altcoin market.
Read the full report: link in bio/comments
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Crypto markets appear strong on the surface, but not everything is as it seems.
Treasury-backed inflows are making headlines, and Ethereum ETF demand is accelerating—but under the hood, cracks may be forming.
Volumes are shifting, funding dynamics are changing, and NAV premiums are quietly retreating.
While institutional names dominate the narrative, retail may be unknowingly stepping into a different game.
There’s a key reason MicroStrategy isn’t raising cash through new common share offerings—and it’s linked to a dynamic that has historically fueled Bitcoin’s rallies.
Our real-time indicators now suggest a high probability that today could set the tone for the remainder of the summer.
In the analysis below, we break down the signals that investors should watch closely, as the implications could be significant not just for Bitcoin but also for Ethereum and the broader altcoin market.
Read the full report: link in bio/comments
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/three-bitcoin-crypto-catalysts-left-this-week-then-what-fc18
10xResearch
--
Three Bitcoin/Crypto Catalysts Left This Week—Then What?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
This Bitcoin bull market has been anything but smooth, driven by sudden catalysts such as Fed policy shifts, ETF approvals, and political momentum.
But now, we’re approaching a moment where the biggest events on the calendar—corporate earnings, the White House digital asset report, and the FOMC meeting—are about to be behind us before everybody heads into the summer.
With August and September historically weak for crypto, traders face a dilemma: chase the rally, or prepare for a pause?
Main argument
This fifth Bitcoin bull market (see Crypto Titans book) has been characterized by bursts of momentum and sudden pauses, rather than a steady, high Sharpe ratio climb.
Each move has hinged on a clear catalyst: Fed rate expectations, Trump’s political traction, ETF breakthroughs, or regulatory interventions, such as the dismantling of crypto-friendly banks.
That’s why staying laser-focused on macro triggers and reacting quickly to breakouts remains critical.
In crypto, momentum is sparked by events, not driven by the calendar.
Bitcoin dropped to $115,000 heading into Friday’s option expiry—precisely the level we targeted a month ago when we sold the $115,000 strike July 26 call for a $1,560 premium (see report from June 24).
At the time, Bitcoin was trading at $104,000, and a rally was widely dismissed by the market, making this a strong contrarian setup.
The trade generated an 18% annualized yield in addition to Bitcoin’s price appreciation. We’ve already initiated a new trade ahead of the August month-end options expiry (see below - link in comments section).
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
This Bitcoin bull market has been anything but smooth, driven by sudden catalysts such as Fed policy shifts, ETF approvals, and political momentum.
But now, we’re approaching a moment where the biggest events on the calendar—corporate earnings, the White House digital asset report, and the FOMC meeting—are about to be behind us before everybody heads into the summer.
With August and September historically weak for crypto, traders face a dilemma: chase the rally, or prepare for a pause?
Main argument
This fifth Bitcoin bull market (see Crypto Titans book) has been characterized by bursts of momentum and sudden pauses, rather than a steady, high Sharpe ratio climb.
Each move has hinged on a clear catalyst: Fed rate expectations, Trump’s political traction, ETF breakthroughs, or regulatory interventions, such as the dismantling of crypto-friendly banks.
That’s why staying laser-focused on macro triggers and reacting quickly to breakouts remains critical.
In crypto, momentum is sparked by events, not driven by the calendar.
Bitcoin dropped to $115,000 heading into Friday’s option expiry—precisely the level we targeted a month ago when we sold the $115,000 strike July 26 call for a $1,560 premium (see report from June 24).
At the time, Bitcoin was trading at $104,000, and a rally was widely dismissed by the market, making this a strong contrarian setup.
The trade generated an 18% annualized yield in addition to Bitcoin’s price appreciation. We’ve already initiated a new trade ahead of the August month-end options expiry (see below - link in comments section).
Three Bitcoin/Crypto Catalysts Left This Week—Then What?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
This Bitcoin bull market has been anything but smooth, driven by sudden catalysts such as Fed policy shifts, ETF approvals, and political momentum.
But now, we’re approaching a moment where the biggest events on the calendar—corporate earnings, the White House digital asset report, and the FOMC meeting—are about to be behind us before everybody heads into the summer.
With August and September historically weak for crypto, traders face a dilemma: chase the rally, or prepare for a pause?
Main argument
This fifth Bitcoin bull market (see Crypto Titans book) has been characterized by bursts of momentum and sudden pauses, rather than a steady, high Sharpe ratio climb.
Each move has hinged on a clear catalyst: Fed rate expectations, Trump’s political traction, ETF breakthroughs, or regulatory interventions, such as the dismantling of crypto-friendly banks.
That’s why staying laser-focused on macro triggers and reacting quickly to breakouts remains critical.
In crypto, momentum is sparked by events, not driven by the calendar.
Bitcoin dropped to $115,000 heading into Friday’s option expiry—precisely the level we targeted a month ago when we sold the $115,000 strike July 26 call for a $1,560 premium (see report from June 24).
At the time, Bitcoin was trading at $104,000, and a rally was widely dismissed by the market, making this a strong contrarian setup.
The trade generated an 18% annualized yield in addition to Bitcoin’s price appreciation. We’ve already initiated a new trade ahead of the August month-end options expiry (see below - link in comments section).
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
This Bitcoin bull market has been anything but smooth, driven by sudden catalysts such as Fed policy shifts, ETF approvals, and political momentum.
But now, we’re approaching a moment where the biggest events on the calendar—corporate earnings, the White House digital asset report, and the FOMC meeting—are about to be behind us before everybody heads into the summer.
With August and September historically weak for crypto, traders face a dilemma: chase the rally, or prepare for a pause?
Main argument
This fifth Bitcoin bull market (see Crypto Titans book) has been characterized by bursts of momentum and sudden pauses, rather than a steady, high Sharpe ratio climb.
Each move has hinged on a clear catalyst: Fed rate expectations, Trump’s political traction, ETF breakthroughs, or regulatory interventions, such as the dismantling of crypto-friendly banks.
That’s why staying laser-focused on macro triggers and reacting quickly to breakouts remains critical.
In crypto, momentum is sparked by events, not driven by the calendar.
Bitcoin dropped to $115,000 heading into Friday’s option expiry—precisely the level we targeted a month ago when we sold the $115,000 strike July 26 call for a $1,560 premium (see report from June 24).
At the time, Bitcoin was trading at $104,000, and a rally was widely dismissed by the market, making this a strong contrarian setup.
The trade generated an 18% annualized yield in addition to Bitcoin’s price appreciation. We’ve already initiated a new trade ahead of the August month-end options expiry (see below - link in comments section).
What Happens When MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Yield Hits a Wall?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin has delivered a staggering 66% average annual return over the past decade, outpacing nearly every stock on the planet.
Out of the entire S&P 500, only Nvidia has kept pace, which begs a provocative question: Should companies even bother operating if they can’t outperform Bitcoin?
MicroStrategy seems to think not, and their $43 billion capital raise strategy is turning heads.
But here’s what most investors miss: MicroStrategy’s model depends on high volatility and inflated NAV premiums, and both are vanishing.
As volatility compresses, so does their ability to raise capital, issue debt, or generate BTC per share yield.
The story unfolding now may signal a major shift in how Bitcoin-holding companies survive, scale, or stumble.
Main argument
From a Bitcoin maximalist standpoint, one could argue that unless a company can consistently outperform Bitcoin’s long-term returns (+66% per annum), it should abandon traditional operations altogether and function purely as a Bitcoin-holding vehicle with minimal overhead.
This is essentially the direction MicroStrategy has taken, especially now that the original 2020 rationale — zero interest rates and rampant money printing — no longer applies.
But Bitcoin, as always, continues to evolve—and so does the narrative surrounding it.
Out of the entire S&P 500, only Nvidia has delivered a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) that rivals Bitcoin’s staggering ~66% average return.
The vast majority of companies posted more modest 10–20% yearly returns, far below Bitcoin’s performance.
The implication is clear: if a company consistently fails to outperform Bitcoin, perhaps its most rational strategy is to cease operations altogether and simply hold Bitcoin instead.
Please see our report: link in the bio/on our website.
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin has delivered a staggering 66% average annual return over the past decade, outpacing nearly every stock on the planet.
Out of the entire S&P 500, only Nvidia has kept pace, which begs a provocative question: Should companies even bother operating if they can’t outperform Bitcoin?
MicroStrategy seems to think not, and their $43 billion capital raise strategy is turning heads.
But here’s what most investors miss: MicroStrategy’s model depends on high volatility and inflated NAV premiums, and both are vanishing.
As volatility compresses, so does their ability to raise capital, issue debt, or generate BTC per share yield.
The story unfolding now may signal a major shift in how Bitcoin-holding companies survive, scale, or stumble.
Main argument
From a Bitcoin maximalist standpoint, one could argue that unless a company can consistently outperform Bitcoin’s long-term returns (+66% per annum), it should abandon traditional operations altogether and function purely as a Bitcoin-holding vehicle with minimal overhead.
This is essentially the direction MicroStrategy has taken, especially now that the original 2020 rationale — zero interest rates and rampant money printing — no longer applies.
But Bitcoin, as always, continues to evolve—and so does the narrative surrounding it.
Out of the entire S&P 500, only Nvidia has delivered a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) that rivals Bitcoin’s staggering ~66% average return.
The vast majority of companies posted more modest 10–20% yearly returns, far below Bitcoin’s performance.
The implication is clear: if a company consistently fails to outperform Bitcoin, perhaps its most rational strategy is to cease operations altogether and simply hold Bitcoin instead.
Please see our report: link in the bio/on our website.
Why Ethereum’s Rally Stalled: Technicalities or Just Technicals?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Ethereum's recent rally wasn't just about momentum—it was fueled by one of DeFi's most leveraged trades unraveling in real time.
As borrowing costs surged and key players pulled liquidity, a cascading unwind began, destabilizing the stETH peg and pressuring ETH’s price action.
Technical indicators flashed extreme overbought levels just as retail euphoria reached its peak, creating the perfect storm.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains stuck below its $122,000 ceiling, suggesting a potential shift in volatility regime.
But with funding rates repricing lower and altcoin strength fading, are we heading into a deeper consolidation, or just the calm before another breakout?
The interplay of on-chain mechanics, ETF flow dynamics, and macro signals could set the stage for what comes next.
Main argument
We identified the breakout in Ethereum and Ripple (XRP) early in our July 9 Trading Signals report (here).
We turned bearish on both by July 22 (here), as prices became significantly overbought and approached major multi-year resistance levels.
Ethereum, in particular, had rallied back to the key highs of May and December 2024 and was testing the upper boundary of a long-term down-trending wedge dating back to 2021, converging with multiple 2024 peak levels.
At the same time, technical reversal signals, including RSI and Stochastics, reached some of the most overbought readings ever recorded for Ethereum, underscoring the likelihood of a pullback.
Recognizing these stretched conditions ahead of time was essential.
From the July 9 signal, Ethereum gained +44%, but since our bearish call on July 22, it has already declined by -4%.
But is this the dip to buy or the beginning of a deeper pull-back?
Please see our report for a complete analysis: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/why-ethereum-s-rally-stalled-technicalities-or-just-technicals-9f00
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Ethereum's recent rally wasn't just about momentum—it was fueled by one of DeFi's most leveraged trades unraveling in real time.
As borrowing costs surged and key players pulled liquidity, a cascading unwind began, destabilizing the stETH peg and pressuring ETH’s price action.
Technical indicators flashed extreme overbought levels just as retail euphoria reached its peak, creating the perfect storm.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains stuck below its $122,000 ceiling, suggesting a potential shift in volatility regime.
But with funding rates repricing lower and altcoin strength fading, are we heading into a deeper consolidation, or just the calm before another breakout?
The interplay of on-chain mechanics, ETF flow dynamics, and macro signals could set the stage for what comes next.
Main argument
We identified the breakout in Ethereum and Ripple (XRP) early in our July 9 Trading Signals report (here).
We turned bearish on both by July 22 (here), as prices became significantly overbought and approached major multi-year resistance levels.
Ethereum, in particular, had rallied back to the key highs of May and December 2024 and was testing the upper boundary of a long-term down-trending wedge dating back to 2021, converging with multiple 2024 peak levels.
At the same time, technical reversal signals, including RSI and Stochastics, reached some of the most overbought readings ever recorded for Ethereum, underscoring the likelihood of a pullback.
Recognizing these stretched conditions ahead of time was essential.
From the July 9 signal, Ethereum gained +44%, but since our bearish call on July 22, it has already declined by -4%.
But is this the dip to buy or the beginning of a deeper pull-back?
Please see our report for a complete analysis: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/why-ethereum-s-rally-stalled-technicalities-or-just-technicals-9f00
The $5 Trillion Shock That Set Bitcoin—and Retail Traders—on Fire
The $5 Trillion Shock That Set Bitcoin—and Retail Traders—on Fire
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin’s recent rally may look like a typical retail-driven move, but the spark came from something far more systemic.
While Asian traders have dominated price action, a quiet policy shift in Washington may have added fuel to the fire.
Volumes have exploded, funding rates are stretched, and obscure tokens like STRIKE are seeing billions in daily flows.
Yet most traders are missing what truly lit the fuse—and what could keep Bitcoin climbing long after summer ends.
The numbers point to a powerful macro force that aligns almost perfectly with Bitcoin’s breakout.
If you want to understand what’s really driving this market and how far it could go, keep reading.
Main argument
Retail speculation in crypto is running at full throttle, but the initial spark came from elsewhere.
Even if trading volumes ease over the summer, there’s still plenty of explosive fuel waiting on the horizon.
The Asian time zone has overwhelmingly driven the latest crypto rally.
While Bitcoin is up +16% overall, Asian trading hours alone contributed +25% to that gain, meaning Europe (-6%) and the U.S. (-3%) saw net declines due to profit-taking.
Although some of this may be due to treasury-related news emerging after U.S. market hours, the more likely explanation is heightened enthusiasm and aggressive buying from Asian traders.
A similar pattern is evident in Ethereum, which is up 63% over the past month—an impressive move, but nearly all of it (+96%) occurred during Asian trading hours.
In contrast, Europe (-26%) and the U.S. (-7%) again showed signs of selling into strength.
This dynamic is particularly noteworthy as retail traders have piled into leveraged long positions via perpetual futures.
With funding rates now at their highest levels since the December 2024 peak, there's a growing risk of an unwinding of leveraged long positions, especially if the cost of holding these positions exceeds daily price gains.
Since the rally began just two weeks ago on July 9, open interest has surged by $6.0 billion for Bitcoin, $8.0 billion for Ethereum, and $2.2 billion for Solana.
Funding rates have also climbed sharply to 19%, 13%, and 18%, respectively, placing them in the 92nd, 71st, and 81st percentiles historically.
But there is a way to navigate this consolidation as we explain below.
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-5-trillion-shock-that-set-bitcoin-and-retail-traders-on-fire-b65b
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin’s recent rally may look like a typical retail-driven move, but the spark came from something far more systemic.
While Asian traders have dominated price action, a quiet policy shift in Washington may have added fuel to the fire.
Volumes have exploded, funding rates are stretched, and obscure tokens like STRIKE are seeing billions in daily flows.
Yet most traders are missing what truly lit the fuse—and what could keep Bitcoin climbing long after summer ends.
The numbers point to a powerful macro force that aligns almost perfectly with Bitcoin’s breakout.
If you want to understand what’s really driving this market and how far it could go, keep reading.
Main argument
Retail speculation in crypto is running at full throttle, but the initial spark came from elsewhere.
Even if trading volumes ease over the summer, there’s still plenty of explosive fuel waiting on the horizon.
The Asian time zone has overwhelmingly driven the latest crypto rally.
While Bitcoin is up +16% overall, Asian trading hours alone contributed +25% to that gain, meaning Europe (-6%) and the U.S. (-3%) saw net declines due to profit-taking.
Although some of this may be due to treasury-related news emerging after U.S. market hours, the more likely explanation is heightened enthusiasm and aggressive buying from Asian traders.
A similar pattern is evident in Ethereum, which is up 63% over the past month—an impressive move, but nearly all of it (+96%) occurred during Asian trading hours.
In contrast, Europe (-26%) and the U.S. (-7%) again showed signs of selling into strength.
This dynamic is particularly noteworthy as retail traders have piled into leveraged long positions via perpetual futures.
With funding rates now at their highest levels since the December 2024 peak, there's a growing risk of an unwinding of leveraged long positions, especially if the cost of holding these positions exceeds daily price gains.
Since the rally began just two weeks ago on July 9, open interest has surged by $6.0 billion for Bitcoin, $8.0 billion for Ethereum, and $2.2 billion for Solana.
Funding rates have also climbed sharply to 19%, 13%, and 18%, respectively, placing them in the 92nd, 71st, and 81st percentiles historically.
But there is a way to navigate this consolidation as we explain below.
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-5-trillion-shock-that-set-bitcoin-and-retail-traders-on-fire-b65b
Buy or Sell Coinbase? And What $195 Billion in Bitcoin Inflows Tells Us about the Next 5 Months?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin just posted its strongest breakout since 2024—fueled by a sharp surge in inflows, call buying, and one of the largest short liquidations in years.
But with implied volatility fading and the options market now aggressively pricing in a $140K year-end target, are traders too far ahead of themselves?
Retail volume is exploding in Korea, and altcoins are ripping—but the inflow math may be telling a different story.
Meanwhile, Coinbase is now trading at a 22% premium to Bitcoin, near the top of its historical range.
Is this the time to stay long, hedge, or fade the rally?
The capital flow data, trend model shifts, and derivatives signals in this report reveal what’s likely next—and where the risk/reward is most asymmetric.
Main argument
On June 24 (here), we turned bullish Bitcoin as it approached the end of a six-week consolidation.
Anticipating a July breakout, we recommended going long Bitcoin at $104,000 while selling the $115,000 July 25 call, expecting a +10% move and viewing the call sale as an attractive yield enhancement.
At the time, the call offered an 18% annualized yield, in addition to Bitcoin exposure.
That option, originally priced at $1,560, is now trading around $2,990 with just three days to expiry.
While the call has moved against us by $1,400, the long Bitcoin leg is up $13,400, resulting in a net gain of $12,000 (so far).
And with consolidation likely to occur into the July 25 option expiry, the call option could still lose value, ultimately capturing the yield we initially targeted.
See our report:
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/buy-or-sell-coinbase-and-what-195-billion-in-bitcoin-inflows-tells-us-about-the-next-5-months-7253
Why this report matters
Bitcoin just posted its strongest breakout since 2024—fueled by a sharp surge in inflows, call buying, and one of the largest short liquidations in years.
But with implied volatility fading and the options market now aggressively pricing in a $140K year-end target, are traders too far ahead of themselves?
Retail volume is exploding in Korea, and altcoins are ripping—but the inflow math may be telling a different story.
Meanwhile, Coinbase is now trading at a 22% premium to Bitcoin, near the top of its historical range.
Is this the time to stay long, hedge, or fade the rally?
The capital flow data, trend model shifts, and derivatives signals in this report reveal what’s likely next—and where the risk/reward is most asymmetric.
Main argument
On June 24 (here), we turned bullish Bitcoin as it approached the end of a six-week consolidation.
Anticipating a July breakout, we recommended going long Bitcoin at $104,000 while selling the $115,000 July 25 call, expecting a +10% move and viewing the call sale as an attractive yield enhancement.
At the time, the call offered an 18% annualized yield, in addition to Bitcoin exposure.
That option, originally priced at $1,560, is now trading around $2,990 with just three days to expiry.
While the call has moved against us by $1,400, the long Bitcoin leg is up $13,400, resulting in a net gain of $12,000 (so far).
And with consolidation likely to occur into the July 25 option expiry, the call option could still lose value, ultimately capturing the yield we initially targeted.
See our report:
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/buy-or-sell-coinbase-and-what-195-billion-in-bitcoin-inflows-tells-us-about-the-next-5-months-7253
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/what-84-billion-in-defi-really-reveals-about-ethereum-s-next-move-e99d
10xResearch
--
What $84 Billion in DeFi Really Reveals About Ethereum’s Next Move
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Ethereum just experienced a breakout month, but the real story may be just beginning.
While media headlines focus on ETFs and speculation, the quiet rise in DeFi activity and internal smart contract calls reveals a deeper shift underway.
Institutional positioning is rising, as treasury firms replicate the MicroStrategy playbook, and a staggering $3 billion has flowed into Ethereum ETFs in just weeks.
Meanwhile, Asia is driving most of the repricing, and Ethereum’s share of the crypto market is surging.
With the GENIUS Act implementation looming and on-chain metrics flashing bullish, this could be a structural turning point.
What’s powering this move—and is it sustainable?
Main argument
Our bullish July call on Bitcoin was out of consensus, and it played out.
In our July 9 Trading Strategy report (here), we flagged Ethereum’s setup: “increasing probability of a breakout, with bullish reversal indicators suggesting an imminent move. A break above $2,635 would confirm a bullish descending broadening wedge.”
At the time, ETH was trading at $2,606. Simultaneously, our Trading Signals alert (here) highlighted “two notably bullish breakouts: Ethereum and Ripple”, trading at $2,603 and $2.30, respectively, now at $3,724 and $3.44.
With gas fees remaining low, Ethereum’s rally unfolded as a classic technical breakout.
Although Bitcoin’s market capitalization is nearly five times larger than Ethereum’s, Ethereum has seen a more aggressive buildup in speculative positioning.
Over the past three weeks, Ethereum’s open interest surged by $11 billion—up 79%—compared to Bitcoin’s $6.7 billion increase.
During this period, Ethereum’s funding rate spiked from 5% to 15% as leveraged futures positions accumulated, with open interest rising from $8 billion in mid-April to $25 billion.
Despite Ethereum’s sharp rally, funding rates remain relatively subdued, indicating that the surge is being fueled in part by spot buying rather than driven solely by leveraged speculation.
Below we explain what this means for Ethereum’s next move (see link in comment section.
Why this report matters
Ethereum just experienced a breakout month, but the real story may be just beginning.
While media headlines focus on ETFs and speculation, the quiet rise in DeFi activity and internal smart contract calls reveals a deeper shift underway.
Institutional positioning is rising, as treasury firms replicate the MicroStrategy playbook, and a staggering $3 billion has flowed into Ethereum ETFs in just weeks.
Meanwhile, Asia is driving most of the repricing, and Ethereum’s share of the crypto market is surging.
With the GENIUS Act implementation looming and on-chain metrics flashing bullish, this could be a structural turning point.
What’s powering this move—and is it sustainable?
Main argument
Our bullish July call on Bitcoin was out of consensus, and it played out.
In our July 9 Trading Strategy report (here), we flagged Ethereum’s setup: “increasing probability of a breakout, with bullish reversal indicators suggesting an imminent move. A break above $2,635 would confirm a bullish descending broadening wedge.”
At the time, ETH was trading at $2,606. Simultaneously, our Trading Signals alert (here) highlighted “two notably bullish breakouts: Ethereum and Ripple”, trading at $2,603 and $2.30, respectively, now at $3,724 and $3.44.
With gas fees remaining low, Ethereum’s rally unfolded as a classic technical breakout.
Although Bitcoin’s market capitalization is nearly five times larger than Ethereum’s, Ethereum has seen a more aggressive buildup in speculative positioning.
Over the past three weeks, Ethereum’s open interest surged by $11 billion—up 79%—compared to Bitcoin’s $6.7 billion increase.
During this period, Ethereum’s funding rate spiked from 5% to 15% as leveraged futures positions accumulated, with open interest rising from $8 billion in mid-April to $25 billion.
Despite Ethereum’s sharp rally, funding rates remain relatively subdued, indicating that the surge is being fueled in part by spot buying rather than driven solely by leveraged speculation.
Below we explain what this means for Ethereum’s next move (see link in comment section.
What $84 Billion in DeFi Really Reveals About Ethereum’s Next Move
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Ethereum just experienced a breakout month, but the real story may be just beginning.
While media headlines focus on ETFs and speculation, the quiet rise in DeFi activity and internal smart contract calls reveals a deeper shift underway.
Institutional positioning is rising, as treasury firms replicate the MicroStrategy playbook, and a staggering $3 billion has flowed into Ethereum ETFs in just weeks.
Meanwhile, Asia is driving most of the repricing, and Ethereum’s share of the crypto market is surging.
With the GENIUS Act implementation looming and on-chain metrics flashing bullish, this could be a structural turning point.
What’s powering this move—and is it sustainable?
Main argument
Our bullish July call on Bitcoin was out of consensus, and it played out.
In our July 9 Trading Strategy report (here), we flagged Ethereum’s setup: “increasing probability of a breakout, with bullish reversal indicators suggesting an imminent move. A break above $2,635 would confirm a bullish descending broadening wedge.”
At the time, ETH was trading at $2,606. Simultaneously, our Trading Signals alert (here) highlighted “two notably bullish breakouts: Ethereum and Ripple”, trading at $2,603 and $2.30, respectively, now at $3,724 and $3.44.
With gas fees remaining low, Ethereum’s rally unfolded as a classic technical breakout.
Although Bitcoin’s market capitalization is nearly five times larger than Ethereum’s, Ethereum has seen a more aggressive buildup in speculative positioning.
Over the past three weeks, Ethereum’s open interest surged by $11 billion—up 79%—compared to Bitcoin’s $6.7 billion increase.
During this period, Ethereum’s funding rate spiked from 5% to 15% as leveraged futures positions accumulated, with open interest rising from $8 billion in mid-April to $25 billion.
Despite Ethereum’s sharp rally, funding rates remain relatively subdued, indicating that the surge is being fueled in part by spot buying rather than driven solely by leveraged speculation.
Below we explain what this means for Ethereum’s next move (see link in comment section.
Why this report matters
Ethereum just experienced a breakout month, but the real story may be just beginning.
While media headlines focus on ETFs and speculation, the quiet rise in DeFi activity and internal smart contract calls reveals a deeper shift underway.
Institutional positioning is rising, as treasury firms replicate the MicroStrategy playbook, and a staggering $3 billion has flowed into Ethereum ETFs in just weeks.
Meanwhile, Asia is driving most of the repricing, and Ethereum’s share of the crypto market is surging.
With the GENIUS Act implementation looming and on-chain metrics flashing bullish, this could be a structural turning point.
What’s powering this move—and is it sustainable?
Main argument
Our bullish July call on Bitcoin was out of consensus, and it played out.
In our July 9 Trading Strategy report (here), we flagged Ethereum’s setup: “increasing probability of a breakout, with bullish reversal indicators suggesting an imminent move. A break above $2,635 would confirm a bullish descending broadening wedge.”
At the time, ETH was trading at $2,606. Simultaneously, our Trading Signals alert (here) highlighted “two notably bullish breakouts: Ethereum and Ripple”, trading at $2,603 and $2.30, respectively, now at $3,724 and $3.44.
With gas fees remaining low, Ethereum’s rally unfolded as a classic technical breakout.
Although Bitcoin’s market capitalization is nearly five times larger than Ethereum’s, Ethereum has seen a more aggressive buildup in speculative positioning.
Over the past three weeks, Ethereum’s open interest surged by $11 billion—up 79%—compared to Bitcoin’s $6.7 billion increase.
During this period, Ethereum’s funding rate spiked from 5% to 15% as leveraged futures positions accumulated, with open interest rising from $8 billion in mid-April to $25 billion.
Despite Ethereum’s sharp rally, funding rates remain relatively subdued, indicating that the surge is being fueled in part by spot buying rather than driven solely by leveraged speculation.
Below we explain what this means for Ethereum’s next move (see link in comment section.
Has MicroStrategy Lost Its Convexity Edge Over Bitcoin?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
MicroStrategy once offered investors a powerful way to amplify Bitcoin gains—but that edge may be disappearing.
With competition intensifying and NAV premiums shrinking, investors are beginning to question the stock’s ability to outperform Bitcoin.
Recent data reveals that volatility has collapsed, premium appetite has faded, and performance no longer justifies the risk.
Meanwhile, a surprising divergence in Japan underscores how quickly sentiment can shift on Bitcoin proxy stocks.
Are institutional traders quietly exiting while retail investors still chase yesterday’s narrative?
Main argument
The "convexity edge over Bitcoin" refers to the potential for Bitcoin proxy stocks, such as MicroStrategy, to outperform Bitcoin itself—delivering amplified returns—due to their structural leverage, premium to NAV, or embedded optionality from instruments like convertible bonds.
MicroStrategy’s daily trading value has fallen from $15 billion to $5 billion based on its 30-day average, mirroring a sharp drop in its 30-day realized volatility, from 165% to just 58%.
It now trades at only a modest premium to Bitcoin’s realized volatility of 43%.
Elevated volatility was a key factor in raising additional cash through stock sales and the sale of convertible bonds, as the embedded equity option benefits from greater price swings.
This carries significant implications, which we explore in detail below.
Read our full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/has-microstrategy-lost-its-convexity-edge-over-bitcoin-c074
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
MicroStrategy once offered investors a powerful way to amplify Bitcoin gains—but that edge may be disappearing.
With competition intensifying and NAV premiums shrinking, investors are beginning to question the stock’s ability to outperform Bitcoin.
Recent data reveals that volatility has collapsed, premium appetite has faded, and performance no longer justifies the risk.
Meanwhile, a surprising divergence in Japan underscores how quickly sentiment can shift on Bitcoin proxy stocks.
Are institutional traders quietly exiting while retail investors still chase yesterday’s narrative?
Main argument
The "convexity edge over Bitcoin" refers to the potential for Bitcoin proxy stocks, such as MicroStrategy, to outperform Bitcoin itself—delivering amplified returns—due to their structural leverage, premium to NAV, or embedded optionality from instruments like convertible bonds.
MicroStrategy’s daily trading value has fallen from $15 billion to $5 billion based on its 30-day average, mirroring a sharp drop in its 30-day realized volatility, from 165% to just 58%.
It now trades at only a modest premium to Bitcoin’s realized volatility of 43%.
Elevated volatility was a key factor in raising additional cash through stock sales and the sale of convertible bonds, as the embedded equity option benefits from greater price swings.
This carries significant implications, which we explore in detail below.
Read our full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/has-microstrategy-lost-its-convexity-edge-over-bitcoin-c074
Revising Our Bitcoin 2025 Year-End Target: Data-Driven and Inflow-Based
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin just rallied on one of the most catalyst-heavy weeks of the year, from a $5 trillion debt ceiling hike to panic buying by Mega Whales.
But beneath the headlines, something more structural is unfolding.
Capital inflows in 2025 are tracking just below record pace, and with Bitcoin’s market cap now massive, only real money moves the needle.
Our regression model reveals a precise relationship between inflows and price, and this year’s data suggests a target that few are discussing.
Main argument
On December 16, 2024, we initially projected a 2025 year-end Bitcoin target of $160,000, which we later refined to a target range of $140,000 to $160,000 in our early 2025 outlook.
Now, with greater clarity on actual capital inflows into the Bitcoin network, we can update that estimate using annualized data.
This allows us to provide a more realistic and data-backed year-end price target, grounded in observable market dynamics.
Forecasting Bitcoin price targets is inherently challenging, given the potential for rapid, momentum-driven moves.
That said, our track record includes several out-of-consensus calls that proved highly accurate.
We called the bottom in October 2022 and projected a surge to $63,160 into the 2024 halving—Bitcoin traded at $63,491 on the halving day.
In January 2023, we predicted a year-end target of $45,000, which closely matched the final price of $43,613.
Our January 2024 forecast of $70,000 for year-end was also on track—until Trump’s election changed the macro landscape.
Now that Bitcoin is breaking into new all-time highs, traditional cycle models offer less guidance; what matters most is the scale and trajectory of real money inflows into the network.
So where will Bitcoin finish this year?
Please see our report - link in the bio to our website.
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin just rallied on one of the most catalyst-heavy weeks of the year, from a $5 trillion debt ceiling hike to panic buying by Mega Whales.
But beneath the headlines, something more structural is unfolding.
Capital inflows in 2025 are tracking just below record pace, and with Bitcoin’s market cap now massive, only real money moves the needle.
Our regression model reveals a precise relationship between inflows and price, and this year’s data suggests a target that few are discussing.
Main argument
On December 16, 2024, we initially projected a 2025 year-end Bitcoin target of $160,000, which we later refined to a target range of $140,000 to $160,000 in our early 2025 outlook.
Now, with greater clarity on actual capital inflows into the Bitcoin network, we can update that estimate using annualized data.
This allows us to provide a more realistic and data-backed year-end price target, grounded in observable market dynamics.
Forecasting Bitcoin price targets is inherently challenging, given the potential for rapid, momentum-driven moves.
That said, our track record includes several out-of-consensus calls that proved highly accurate.
We called the bottom in October 2022 and projected a surge to $63,160 into the 2024 halving—Bitcoin traded at $63,491 on the halving day.
In January 2023, we predicted a year-end target of $45,000, which closely matched the final price of $43,613.
Our January 2024 forecast of $70,000 for year-end was also on track—until Trump’s election changed the macro landscape.
Now that Bitcoin is breaking into new all-time highs, traditional cycle models offer less guidance; what matters most is the scale and trajectory of real money inflows into the network.
So where will Bitcoin finish this year?
Please see our report - link in the bio to our website.
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Join us at Token2049 for another 10x Research’s exclusive side event—your prime opportunity to network with fellow traders!
Get your Token2049 conference tickets with an extra 10% off
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Until Friday, July 18, you can save US$600 (60%) on 1–2 October passes—and stack an extra 10% off with our exclusive code 10XRESEARCH10.
After July 18, prices go up, but you’ll still enjoy the 10% discount when you book through our link or use our promo code (10XRESEARCH10).
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10xResearch
--
Asian Retail Traders Panic - Will This Bitcoin and Altcoin Rally Last?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
As Bitcoin ripped from $110K to $123K, it wasn’t just whales driving the move but a wave of panic buying in Asia’s late hours, leaving traders scrambling for answers.
At the same time, Ethereum’s open interest swelled by $5 billion—an institutional stamp of approval or a sign of overreach?
Funding rates across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have exploded into double digits, resurrecting memories of past blow-offs.
Looming behind it all is a $1.5 billion altcoin unlock, poised to either spark fresh momentum or trigger a violent correction.
Main argument
Altcoins, especially Ethereum, are surging, and everyone’s asking the same questions: what’s driving the move, and how long can it last?
Our tactical altcoin model turned bullish on July 10 (here). A day earlier, on July 9, our Trading Signals (here) identified trend reversals in both Ethereum and Ripple—moves that were followed by respective gains of 20% and 27%.
Our Ethereum Technical Analysis chart book further reinforced this outlook, published the same day as part of our Trading Strategy series (here).
Back in January, we advised hedging long Bitcoin positions with short altcoin trades, as the projected $57 billion in annual token unlocks signaled persistent selling pressure across the altcoin market.
Our analysis also highlighted a structural shift in Bitcoin’s investor base, from retail to institutional buyers, including ETFs and corporations, while retail participation remained muted.
But there are periods when altcoins pump, and we have pointed this out in our July 7 report (here): “When they [unlocks] exceed $1.5 billion [per week], we often see a brief altcoin rally the week prior, as market makers attempt to generate upward momentum. If this pattern holds, the upcoming $1.5 billion unlock could trigger a short-term rebound in altcoins”.
Indeed, that’s why we anticipated a sharp rally—and it’s played out just as expected.
The real question now is whether this surge has run its course or if there’s still more upside ahead. See our full report in the com-ments section...
Why this report matters
As Bitcoin ripped from $110K to $123K, it wasn’t just whales driving the move but a wave of panic buying in Asia’s late hours, leaving traders scrambling for answers.
At the same time, Ethereum’s open interest swelled by $5 billion—an institutional stamp of approval or a sign of overreach?
Funding rates across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have exploded into double digits, resurrecting memories of past blow-offs.
Looming behind it all is a $1.5 billion altcoin unlock, poised to either spark fresh momentum or trigger a violent correction.
Main argument
Altcoins, especially Ethereum, are surging, and everyone’s asking the same questions: what’s driving the move, and how long can it last?
Our tactical altcoin model turned bullish on July 10 (here). A day earlier, on July 9, our Trading Signals (here) identified trend reversals in both Ethereum and Ripple—moves that were followed by respective gains of 20% and 27%.
Our Ethereum Technical Analysis chart book further reinforced this outlook, published the same day as part of our Trading Strategy series (here).
Back in January, we advised hedging long Bitcoin positions with short altcoin trades, as the projected $57 billion in annual token unlocks signaled persistent selling pressure across the altcoin market.
Our analysis also highlighted a structural shift in Bitcoin’s investor base, from retail to institutional buyers, including ETFs and corporations, while retail participation remained muted.
But there are periods when altcoins pump, and we have pointed this out in our July 7 report (here): “When they [unlocks] exceed $1.5 billion [per week], we often see a brief altcoin rally the week prior, as market makers attempt to generate upward momentum. If this pattern holds, the upcoming $1.5 billion unlock could trigger a short-term rebound in altcoins”.
Indeed, that’s why we anticipated a sharp rally—and it’s played out just as expected.
The real question now is whether this surge has run its course or if there’s still more upside ahead. See our full report in the com-ments section...
Asian Retail Traders Panic - Will This Bitcoin and Altcoin Rally Last?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
As Bitcoin ripped from $110K to $123K, it wasn’t just whales driving the move but a wave of panic buying in Asia’s late hours, leaving traders scrambling for answers.
At the same time, Ethereum’s open interest swelled by $5 billion—an institutional stamp of approval or a sign of overreach?
Funding rates across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have exploded into double digits, resurrecting memories of past blow-offs.
Looming behind it all is a $1.5 billion altcoin unlock, poised to either spark fresh momentum or trigger a violent correction.
Main argument
Altcoins, especially Ethereum, are surging, and everyone’s asking the same questions: what’s driving the move, and how long can it last?
Our tactical altcoin model turned bullish on July 10 (here). A day earlier, on July 9, our Trading Signals (here) identified trend reversals in both Ethereum and Ripple—moves that were followed by respective gains of 20% and 27%.
Our Ethereum Technical Analysis chart book further reinforced this outlook, published the same day as part of our Trading Strategy series (here).
Back in January, we advised hedging long Bitcoin positions with short altcoin trades, as the projected $57 billion in annual token unlocks signaled persistent selling pressure across the altcoin market.
Our analysis also highlighted a structural shift in Bitcoin’s investor base, from retail to institutional buyers, including ETFs and corporations, while retail participation remained muted.
But there are periods when altcoins pump, and we have pointed this out in our July 7 report (here): “When they [unlocks] exceed $1.5 billion [per week], we often see a brief altcoin rally the week prior, as market makers attempt to generate upward momentum. If this pattern holds, the upcoming $1.5 billion unlock could trigger a short-term rebound in altcoins”.
Indeed, that’s why we anticipated a sharp rally—and it’s played out just as expected.
The real question now is whether this surge has run its course or if there’s still more upside ahead. See our full report in the com-ments section...
Why this report matters
As Bitcoin ripped from $110K to $123K, it wasn’t just whales driving the move but a wave of panic buying in Asia’s late hours, leaving traders scrambling for answers.
At the same time, Ethereum’s open interest swelled by $5 billion—an institutional stamp of approval or a sign of overreach?
Funding rates across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have exploded into double digits, resurrecting memories of past blow-offs.
Looming behind it all is a $1.5 billion altcoin unlock, poised to either spark fresh momentum or trigger a violent correction.
Main argument
Altcoins, especially Ethereum, are surging, and everyone’s asking the same questions: what’s driving the move, and how long can it last?
Our tactical altcoin model turned bullish on July 10 (here). A day earlier, on July 9, our Trading Signals (here) identified trend reversals in both Ethereum and Ripple—moves that were followed by respective gains of 20% and 27%.
Our Ethereum Technical Analysis chart book further reinforced this outlook, published the same day as part of our Trading Strategy series (here).
Back in January, we advised hedging long Bitcoin positions with short altcoin trades, as the projected $57 billion in annual token unlocks signaled persistent selling pressure across the altcoin market.
Our analysis also highlighted a structural shift in Bitcoin’s investor base, from retail to institutional buyers, including ETFs and corporations, while retail participation remained muted.
But there are periods when altcoins pump, and we have pointed this out in our July 7 report (here): “When they [unlocks] exceed $1.5 billion [per week], we often see a brief altcoin rally the week prior, as market makers attempt to generate upward momentum. If this pattern holds, the upcoming $1.5 billion unlock could trigger a short-term rebound in altcoins”.
Indeed, that’s why we anticipated a sharp rally—and it’s played out just as expected.
The real question now is whether this surge has run its course or if there’s still more upside ahead. See our full report in the com-ments section...
Will This $7 Trillion Debt Shock Make Bitcoin the Only Winner?
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin just hit fresh all-time highs, but this rally isn’t driven by hype—it’s fueled by something far deeper.
The narrative has shifted, and very few are seeing what’s really happening beneath the surface.
While most focus on Fed cuts or ETF flows, a more powerful force is quietly reshaping the entire macro landscape (see Quiet Summer Explosion? report from July 3).
Massive deficit spending, a new $5 trillion debt ceiling hike, and an upcoming crypto policy report from Trump’s task force are converging fast.
Two major catalysts—July 22 and the July 30 FOMC meeting—could redefine Bitcoin’s role in the financial system.
Main argument
While many had written off the possibility of a summer Bitcoin rally, we stayed focused, tracking the newsflow and analyzing the data in real time.
What followed was a textbook breakout, fueled by July seasonality, a decisive shift from call selling to aggressive call buying, coupled with a wave of short liquidations.
On the surface, there are many reasons why Bitcoin is rallying—but only one truly matters.
The narrative has completely shifted: no one is talking about blockchain use cases or Bitcoin’s technological promise anymore.
Instead, Bitcoin has become a macro asset—a hedge against unchecked deficit spending.
What if the $7 trillion shift in U.S. debt isn’t a warning—but Bitcoin’s biggest opportunity yet?
Read our full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/will-this-7-trillion-debt-shock-make-bitcoin-the-only-winner-85d3
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin just hit fresh all-time highs, but this rally isn’t driven by hype—it’s fueled by something far deeper.
The narrative has shifted, and very few are seeing what’s really happening beneath the surface.
While most focus on Fed cuts or ETF flows, a more powerful force is quietly reshaping the entire macro landscape (see Quiet Summer Explosion? report from July 3).
Massive deficit spending, a new $5 trillion debt ceiling hike, and an upcoming crypto policy report from Trump’s task force are converging fast.
Two major catalysts—July 22 and the July 30 FOMC meeting—could redefine Bitcoin’s role in the financial system.
Main argument
While many had written off the possibility of a summer Bitcoin rally, we stayed focused, tracking the newsflow and analyzing the data in real time.
What followed was a textbook breakout, fueled by July seasonality, a decisive shift from call selling to aggressive call buying, coupled with a wave of short liquidations.
On the surface, there are many reasons why Bitcoin is rallying—but only one truly matters.
The narrative has completely shifted: no one is talking about blockchain use cases or Bitcoin’s technological promise anymore.
Instead, Bitcoin has become a macro asset—a hedge against unchecked deficit spending.
What if the $7 trillion shift in U.S. debt isn’t a warning—but Bitcoin’s biggest opportunity yet?
Read our full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/will-this-7-trillion-debt-shock-make-bitcoin-the-only-winner-85d3
The Quiet Bitcoin Signal That Triggered $1 Billion in Crypto Liquidations
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin just hit our July price target ($116,000)—but what’s unfolding beneath the surface is even more critical.
A fresh uptrend signal has triggered, catching many traders off guard and prompting the highest liquidations since 2021.
ETF inflows are accelerating, funding rates have spiked, and volatility metrics are flashing setups not seen in months.
Meanwhile, trend-following funds are stepping in, potentially overpowering more cautious, discretionary players.
But here’s what most aren’t seeing: the structure of the rally, the silent shifts in positioning, and the overlooked signals that point to where Bitcoin might go next.
Main argument
Bitcoin has now reached our July price target of $116,000, a level we projected based on seasonal trends that indicated a 9% rally (here)
.
While we initially anticipated a broader summer consolidation, our stance turned decisively more bullish over the past two weeks as upside positioning remained sparse, creating the conditions for a sharp move higher.
A fresh trading signal, triggered by Bitcoin making a new short-term high, suggests the rally may have further to run.
Historically, similar signals have delivered a median gain of +20%, with 6 out of 10 instances producing positive returns. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could climb as high as $133,000 by September (here).
In our June 30 report, “Why Bitcoin Traders Are Quietly Rotating From Puts to Calls,” we wrote: “While Bitcoin may seem range-bound on the surface, underlying pressures are building.
Volatility is compressing, institutional flows are diverging, and the options market is sending signals that traders can’t ignore.
With steady ETF inflows, a more dovish Fed, and reduced tariff risks, the macro landscape is shifting faster than many realize.
The recent options expiry may have removed some of the constraints that have kept Bitcoin in a tight range, as traders shift from buying puts to selling calls.
This repositioning appears to be recalibrating Bitcoin’s center of gravity—softening upside resistance and setting the stage for a more directional, albeit gradual, move higher.”
At the time, Bitcoin was trading around $107,000—nearly 10% lower than its current value, which caught many traders off guard.
Implied volatility had fallen to its lowest levels since the brief lull in summer 2023, allowing traders to buy upside convexity at relatively low premiums.
Get the full report in your inbox.. link in the bio...
Why this report matters
Bitcoin just hit our July price target ($116,000)—but what’s unfolding beneath the surface is even more critical.
A fresh uptrend signal has triggered, catching many traders off guard and prompting the highest liquidations since 2021.
ETF inflows are accelerating, funding rates have spiked, and volatility metrics are flashing setups not seen in months.
Meanwhile, trend-following funds are stepping in, potentially overpowering more cautious, discretionary players.
But here’s what most aren’t seeing: the structure of the rally, the silent shifts in positioning, and the overlooked signals that point to where Bitcoin might go next.
Main argument
Bitcoin has now reached our July price target of $116,000, a level we projected based on seasonal trends that indicated a 9% rally (here)
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While we initially anticipated a broader summer consolidation, our stance turned decisively more bullish over the past two weeks as upside positioning remained sparse, creating the conditions for a sharp move higher.
A fresh trading signal, triggered by Bitcoin making a new short-term high, suggests the rally may have further to run.
Historically, similar signals have delivered a median gain of +20%, with 6 out of 10 instances producing positive returns. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could climb as high as $133,000 by September (here).
In our June 30 report, “Why Bitcoin Traders Are Quietly Rotating From Puts to Calls,” we wrote: “While Bitcoin may seem range-bound on the surface, underlying pressures are building.
Volatility is compressing, institutional flows are diverging, and the options market is sending signals that traders can’t ignore.
With steady ETF inflows, a more dovish Fed, and reduced tariff risks, the macro landscape is shifting faster than many realize.
The recent options expiry may have removed some of the constraints that have kept Bitcoin in a tight range, as traders shift from buying puts to selling calls.
This repositioning appears to be recalibrating Bitcoin’s center of gravity—softening upside resistance and setting the stage for a more directional, albeit gradual, move higher.”
At the time, Bitcoin was trading around $107,000—nearly 10% lower than its current value, which caught many traders off guard.
Implied volatility had fallen to its lowest levels since the brief lull in summer 2023, allowing traders to buy upside convexity at relatively low premiums.
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