Why does the ancient giant whale frequently awaken after I get in the car? Why do institutional buyers stop buying after I go long? Why did Trump suddenly urge for interest rate cuts after I stopped loss? Did my position cause repeated inflation in the U.S. economy? Please stay tuned for tonight's large-scale cryptocurrency documentary — I am the weather vane in the crypto circle
GN! Tonight, just like every day, I played the dog, $SOL is rising But it's obvious there's still no market, everyone is still in pvp, there's really no infrastructure dog
GM! I've been playing memes every day these past few days, and I've found that the contracts are a bit more fun 🧧
With memes, you also need to pay attention to the narrative, the market makers, check the top 10, look at the positions, and engage with the community. Although the odds of making a small investment into a large return are not bad, it's still quite difficult. I'll have to learn more.
What signal does the 14-year-old BTC whale's liquidation send?
Yesterday, the "ancient whale" completely liquidated his 80,000 BTC held for 14 years, transferring all to Galaxy Digital at an average transfer price of approximately \$118,834. The initial cost of this batch of coins was only $130,000, resulting in a staggering profit of 72,000 times, as shocking as any legendary story.
We can interpret several signals from this event:
1️⃣ Old money exits, new funds take over? Galaxy Digital serves as a bridge between traditional finance and Web3. Their willingness to take large orders at this price indicates that institutions still hold a positive outlook on BTC's long-term value. You could say the whale is gone, but you could also say institutions are taking the baton.
2️⃣ Sentiment may be affected in the short term Whale liquidations are often interpreted as a "top" signal, which may cause sentiment fluctuations in the coming days. But don’t forget: this recent surge was driven by ETF funds, not retail investors.
3️⃣ From a historical perspective, this may just be the midpoint of a new cycle In 2013, there was the "Bitcoin Pizza Guy", in 2021, it was MicroStrategy's purchase, and this year, it's these old addresses starting to move. Each bull market is accompanied by some “generational transition” nodes, and we may be standing at the beginning of the next story.
Personal summary: This is neither a bearish nor a bullish signal. It resembles a **completion of an era's cycle**—the old whale sheds its historical mission, and new capital is ready to continue the narrative.
> Do you think the whale's liquidation signals the top of the bull market? Or is it a signal that new forces are taking over?
Some say ETH is finally going to break even, should we sell now?
Some are calling for ETH to soar to 6000, 8000, or even 10,000; while others say the bull market is nearing its end and it will drop back to 800 next year. How should we view this?
At this point, the most important thing is how you define 'breaking even': is it getting back your principal for safety? Or believing that long-term will yield big gains?
Currently, the biggest variable facing ETH is not the technical aspects, but the larger environment — macro policies, ETFs, and Layer 2 competition will all affect its performance.
If you believe there is more potential ahead, then hold on; but if you are anxious every day and can't sleep well, perhaps cashing out could be a form of victory.
After all, there is more than one way to make money; what matters is living with peace of mind.
Recently, someone has mentioned interest rate cuts again, but it's different from before. Now the market's reaction to rate cuts has become a bit distorted.
In the past, when everyone heard 'interest rate cut,' they thought money would increase, risk assets would rise, and the stock and cryptocurrency markets would all be excited. But now, if a cut actually happens, it may instead be interpreted as - the economy is not doing well, the Federal Reserve can't hold on any longer, and is starting to inject liquidity.
In other words, interest rate cuts are no longer viewed as 'preventive good news,' but have turned into 'life-saving bad news.' The market is now more afraid of economic problems than high interest rates.
So, if we do see interest rate cuts, there may be a short-term rise, but in the long term, we still need to look at the fundamentals and liquidity expectations. It may not be the kind of market that soars with every cut like before.