0xSleepinRain

Trading the metagame

What is the current stage of the metagame?

1. RWA (U.S. policy promotion)
2. Is $NXPC GamFi the last hope?
3. DePAI, AI + data, including $GRASS and others, AI + computing power may not be that attractive.
4. ICM? It may need to be observed for a while, but it is indeed a brand new narrative on the chain.
5. Contract leverage, many coin prices are driven by leverage.

In the melee, there will only be 1-2 winners.

Overall, $NXPC is GameFi, but what sets this game apart from other GameFi projects is:
1. Its economic model has been validated over time;
2. The scale and quality of the game far exceed those of its predecessors.

It has now basically cleared all exchanges.

In the early stages, there is demand for the tokens (buying NFTs to accelerate gold mining efficiency), but there is a concern about opening too high, leading to insufficient market buying interest.

Overall, $NXPC is the GameFi model, but this game is different from other GameFi in the following ways:
1. Its economic model has been validated over time;
2. The scale and quality of the game far exceed those of its predecessors.

Now it has basically cleared all exchanges.

In the early stages, there is demand for the tokens (buying NFTs to increase gold mining efficiency), but we are concerned that if it opens too high, the market's willingness to buy may be insufficient.

Will the next chain for Binance Alpha's collaboration be $SUI?

The $PENDLE price is decent, but not very impressive; a steady happiness.

BTC is down, altcoins are strong, hasn't it been a long time since we've seen this situation?

Actually, everyone is waiting for a pullback or to short, but the market will rise instead.

Let's talk about $BERA

Two things.

First, $BERA has reached 4.4 again, which indicates a sustained upward trend. This is considered a key position. The rise from last night to now is related to @SmokeyTheBera's announcement of Pol v1.1.

It is equivalent to pushing the price of $BERA to this key position 'reasonably' through news impact.

Second, Pol v1.1 is a very critical proposal. It aims to solve some issues encountered by Berachain after launching the mainnet, such as the weak value capture ability of $BERA, etc.

How does it do this?

It actually converts 20% of the ecological bribes into $BERA, while the amount of $BGT incentives given to the ecosystem will not be affected. Berachain will add the acquired $BERA to the LPs of mainstream trading pairs like BERA-HONEY and BERA-WBTC.

In the future, this 20% fee rate will become a dynamic fee rate, pricing according to incentive efficiency—higher efficiency leads to lower fees.

It essentially transforms part of the bribes into liquidity owned by the protocol (also known as PoL). This liquidity will generate fee income for Berachain, reducing the circulation of $BERA in the secondary market. This income will also be used to repurchase $BERA.

This model of 'protocol asset accumulation + self-sustaining model' optimizes traditional DeFi liquidity mining.

On the downside, the bribes that $BGT can capture have decreased—after all, part of it flows to the Berachain protocol, so the yield of @InfraredFinance's iBGT will decrease. Therefore, the exchange rate of iBGT to BERA will drop.

However, if $BERA appreciates, iBGT will still rise. For those who hold U-based assets, this is acceptable, but for investors who hold BERA/iBGT coin-based assets, it is not as friendly.

In summary, I am quite satisfied with this update from Berachain. They have recognized previous issues and made corresponding adjustments—weakening $BGT to enhance $BERA. As the price of $BERA rises, ecological incentives will increase, and the bribes for BGT will also increase.

Using the value capture ability of $BERA as the ecological driver is a very correct choice.

If we talk about selecting standards for the Ethereum upgrade

$PROMPT EIP-7702
$OBOL EIP-7251

Can we simply choose like this?

Currently, there isn't much to expect from the market. At this stage, it's not about narratives; it's more about watching the main players showcase their abilities and following major entities, such as operating alongside Binance Alpha.

So in this market outlook, I mainly want to share some things I've seen and thought about recently.

1. The arbitrage space on-chain will gradually be weakened with the rise of AI Agents.

The main places for speculation still revolve around DeFAI-related tickers. The most crucial development we need to focus on right now is the EIP-7702 brought by the Ethereum Pectra upgrade. The narrative it involves is DeFAI. In simple terms, the new API built on EIP-7702 allows users to execute complex on-chain strategies without writing smart contracts, which is beneficial for DeFi Agents.

This could be a potential narrative, but whether it can be speculated upon remains to be seen.
My personal approach is to list all DeFAI projects from the Ethereum ecosystem (including BSC, Layer2) in my Watchlist to observe their current price changes.

Another AI narrative is MCP, but currently, nothing particularly impressive has emerged; basically, there's been one standout project, and the project teams have come to realize this and started to join in.

2. Every major breakthrough in AI comes not from new algorithms, but from unlocking new data sources. Each significant advancement in AI is backed by the large-scale use of a completely new training data source (this perspective is someone else's, but I strongly agree with it).

From this angle, the future directions are "embodied intelligence's sensor data capture" and "large-scale training with video data." Although the crypto market isn't currently speculating on embodied intelligence narratives, I believe that narratives related to physical world sensors and data have the potential for explosive growth in the future. Essentially, this is DePAI (DePin + AI). The narrative related to AI + video will have to wait until a significant event occurs in Web2.

Narratives are not isolated; they are interconnected. Narratives must be layered and progressive (for example, stablecoins + RWA + PayFi).

Additionally, I previously saw an article discussing the differences between AI Agents, Workflows, and MCPs, which was very well articulated. I'll find an opportunity to share that with everyone.

3. While Bitcoin may not directly challenge the dominance of the US dollar, in the context of globalization fragmentation caused by tariffs, Bitcoin could become an alternative due to enhanced liquidity, institutional participation, and improved market efficiency.

From the current environment, it's not too difficult for MicroStrategy to raise funds, and there aren't any major risks in the short term.

In the long run, dollar-cost averaging into $BTC is definitely the optimal solution for market participants.

It's hard to imagine that in such a short time, Binance Alpha has already evolved into a product that can occupy mainstream market mindshare.

Previous Binance⬇️
Not to mention whether it can provide users with quality asset options, it has been profiting from project teams through listing requirements, Launchpool (mainly to give large $BNB holders a reason to continue holding), etc., draining the market.

However, with the continued decline in liquidity and the political uncertainty brought by Trump, large financing projects, even with fast tracking through all CEXs, cannot achieve a high valuation at TGE.

The emergence of Binance Alpha and its product iteration is more of a compromise attempt in response to community voices and B-end project teams' requests for listings/cooperation.

Key points are as follows:
1. Binance does not list every project, but what if those project teams are willing to offer benefits? And once listed on Binance, the community often criticizes the sell-off; how to balance this?

Thus, Binance Wallet IDO was born.

First, these project tokens will quickly go through Binance Alpha after TGE, equivalent to a listing observation area, allowing Binance a large operational space, and community negative feedback is not very strong. After all, users can earn Alpha Points, making tens or even hundreds of dollars each time, which is quite nice.

Secondly, those who previously wanted to list on Binance can throw their projects here, giving project teams at least a glimmer of hope for listing, and the community won't criticize, achieving a win-win compromise.

Finally, for project teams, with tokens in the observation area, the market cap is still low, and the operational space is large. Who knows, with some effort, Binance's spot market may rise. For instance, recently well-performing $AIOT (which is also one of my holdings) has adopted a low circulation high FDV model, with a very low market cap at TGE and low operation costs, allowing for significant price increases. Higher market trading volumes increase the likelihood of being listed on Binance.

You can check @ai_9684xtpa's on-chain analysis for specifics.

2. Through Binance Wallet IDO + Binance Alpha + Binance contracts, a strategy is formed to capture users and maintain user stickiness using wealth opportunities and expectation management for its wallet products. Mainly, if Binance lists contracts, they can earn fees, which is quite nice.

From my personal experience, I used to never use Binance Wallet products, but now I also start participating in “exam score brushing,” striving for every IDO quota. From the fact that I rush to check if my Alpha Points pass every time an IDO announcement is made, there is no doubt that I have become Pavlov's dog.

Low market cap at opening also provides space for value discovery, rather than meeting at the peak after Binance Launchpool.

3. For project tokens, every token that has been through Binance Wallet IDO + Binance Alpha + Binance contracts is a good shell. After all, these tokens have a stronger market mindshare capture ability than ordinary tokens.
For example, I think $BID is a very good shell; the team has been doing things and closely collaborating with the Bittensor ecosystem. If some shady group is willing to collaborate with the project team, who knows, they might pull off a dawn.

Although they are all good shells, how to select them? Then we can only investigate one by one, focusing on trading volume and contract positions. This is a labor-intensive task, but at least it is logical, and the probability of making money is higher.

4. With users gained and stickiness established, Binance Alpha has also expanded another route, collaborating with public chain ecosystems—similar to OKX Web3 Wallet and project cooperation for benefits. Here, the collaboration with Sonic $S is mentioned. The airdrop of $S and Sonic ecosystem assets will be launched for active traders on Binance Alpha.

First, it expands the richness of the public chain supported by its Wallet products; second, it uses others' incentives to attract new users for its own products. In the future, there will definitely be more dAPPs and public chains joining Binance's model.

User experience may temporarily not be as good as competitors, but with incentives and influence in place, users will naturally be compelled to use it. As incentives rise, users will also increase. The product will then have time to iterate on user experience. At the same time, with more users, there will be more feedback, making it easier to improve user experience.

That's all. This is my general impression of Binance Alpha.

It's hard to imagine that in a very short time, Binance Alpha has evolved into a product capable of occupying mainstream market mindshare.

The previous Binance⬇️
Not to mention whether it can provide users with quality asset choices, it has been consistently earning money from project parties through coin listing requirements, Launchpool (mainly to give large $BNB holders a reason to continue holding), etc., draining the market.
However, with the continuous decline in liquidity and the political uncertainty brought by Trump, large financing projects cannot achieve a high valuation at TGE even after passing through all CEXs quickly.

The emergence of Binance Alpha and the iteration of products are more of a compromise attempt to respond to community calls and B-end project parties for coin listings/cooperation.

Key points are as follows:
1. Binance doesn't list just any project, but what if those project parties are willing to give discounts? Plus, once listed on Binance, there's a tendency for community backlash against selling, how to find a balance?

Thus, Binance Wallet IDO came into being.

Firstly, these project tokens will quickly pass through Binance Alpha after TGE, equivalent to a coin observation area, where Binance has a large operational space and community backlash is not very strong. After all, users can earn Alpha Points, making a few dozen to over a hundred dollars each time is quite enjoyable.

Secondly, those who previously wanted to list on Binance can all throw their projects here; at least the project parties see hope for listing, and the community won't complain, providing a win-win compromise.

Finally, for project parties, tokens in the observation area have low market value, a large operational space, and with some effort, they might even pump up on Binance's spot market. For example, recently, $AIOT (which is also one of my holdings) has performed well by creating a low circulation high FDV model, with very low market value at TGE and low operating costs, leading to significant price hikes. High market trading volume also increases the chances of being listed on Binance.

For specific details, you can check @ai_9684xtpa's on-chain analysis.

2. Through the combination of Binance Wallet IDO + Binance Alpha + Binance contracts, they use wealth opportunities and expectation management to capture users for their wallet products and maintain user stickiness. Mainly, once Binance lists a contract, they can also earn transaction fees, which is quite advantageous.

From my personal experience, I used to never use Binance Wallet products, but now I am also participating in the "college entrance examination score brushing", striving for each IDO quota. The fact that I check whether my Alpha Points pass every time an IDO news is announced shows that I have undoubtedly become Pavlov's dog.

With a low opening market value, it allows for value discovery instead of only meeting at the peak after Binance Launchpool.

3. For project tokens, each token that has gone through Binance Wallet IDO + Binance Alpha + Binance contracts is a good shell. After all, these tokens have a stronger market mindshare capture ability than general tokens. For example, I think $BID is a very good shell; the team has been active and closely cooperating with the Bittensor ecosystem. If there are groups willing to collaborate with the project parties and stir things up, it might even lead to a dawn.

Although they are all good shells, how to choose? That can only be checked one by one, focusing on trading volume and contract holding. This is a labor-intensive task, but at least there is logic to follow, and the probability of making money is higher.

4. With users and stickiness established, Binance Alpha has expanded another path by collaborating with public chain ecosystems—similar to OKX Web3 Wallet and project collaborations. This refers to the cooperation with Sonic $S. The $S and Sonic ecosystem asset airdrop will be launched for active traders on Binance Alpha within Sonic.

Firstly, it expands the richness of its Wallet product supporting public chains, and secondly, it uses others' incentives to attract new users for its own products. In the future, more dAPPs and public chains will certainly join this Binance model.

Although the user experience is currently not as good as competitors, once incentives and influence are established, users will naturally be compelled to use it. With increased incentives, user numbers will rise. The product will then have time to iterate on user experience. Meanwhile, with more users, there will also be more feedback, making it easier to improve user experience.

That's all. This is my general feeling about Binance Alpha.

$ZORA Airdrop is still not pumping, I can only say there's something there.

I've always wanted to do this, but the market doesn't give opportunities.

Although I actively participated in the scoring of @OstiumLabs, I have to say that OLP, even with its optimizations to the GLP model, is still behind the times. Compared to Hyperliquid, both the LP and the overall user experience are lacking significantly.

The feeling of using Backpack is also somewhat disappointing.

Next, I will try Ligher to see what it's about.

Although I actively participated in the scoring of @OstiumLabs, I have to say that OLP, even though it has optimized the GLP model in terms of mechanism, is still behind the times. Compared to Hyperliquid, the overall user experience is also much worse.

The feeling after using Backpack is also somewhat lacking.

Next, I will try Ligher and see what it's like.

Teams that can create great products share similar thinking. At this stage, @HyperliquidX and @KaitoAI are both looking for PMF (Product Market Fit) for their tokens. Strictly speaking, for projects that execute long-termism, the Token is the most important product of their project (possibly the only one).

"How to integrate the Token with their own product" is an essay topic for every project team.