Scott斯科特

6. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve has an information advantage by mastering a large amount of economic data, and is able to make predictions about the future economy and formulate monetary policies. Monetary policy affects market liquidity, thereby affecting consumption, investment demand and economic development. The market predicts the policy direction of the Federal Reserve based on economic data and adjusts asset allocation accordingly. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a profound impact on the economy and financial markets, and it is crucial to understand its framework and mechanism.

6.1 Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Making
The Federal Reserve is composed of several components responsible for the formulation and implementation of its monetary policy, the most important of which is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC is the main monetary policy-making body of the Federal Reserve and is responsible for setting monetary policy goals and implementing policy adjustments. The composition of the FOMC includes

上一篇 sorted out the economic data for everyone, so how to read the economic data, what data is good, what data is bad, why the data is sometimes good, sometimes bad? This chapter on market expectations will analyze the analysis logic behind the data.

5. Market expectations
The performance of asset prices is driven by market expectations, and the fundamental force that affects asset price changes is liquidity. The core of market expectations lies in the prediction of future liquidity changes. Liquidity can be divided into two categories: short-term liquidity and long-term liquidity, which are determined by policy changes and economic growth respectively. This is also the reason why bad news is good news when trading interest rate cuts this year, and bad news is bad news when trading recessions.

In the previous article, I wrote about macroeconomic analysis, which requires studying economic data, market expectations, monetary policy, fiscal policy, market liquidity, and asset price performance. Starting from this article, I will analyze and explain these data.

4. Economic data
We often hear the phrase, "The market is the barometer of the economy." GDP is one of the most core indicators of economic health. It represents the total value of goods and services produced by a country over a period of time, reflecting the overall size of the economy. However, GDP is a lagging indicator because it is usually released a few months after economic activities occur, so it does not reflect the current economic situation in a timely manner. Therefore, investors and analysts need to rely on other economic data to understand economic trends in advance and predict the direction of GDP.

With the growth of the cryptocurrency market and the approval of the Bitcoin Ethereum spot ETF, cryptocurrency investment is increasingly inseparable from macroeconomic analysis. However, macroeconomic research is diverse and complex. This series of articles will share my own macroeconomic analysis framework, hoping to help students who are conducting macroeconomic research.
1. The role of macro research
a. Be responsible for risk control and allocate major asset classes according to different economic cycles;
b. Sense water temperature and capture turning points

2. Asset Correlation
There has been extensive research on the impact of different economic cycles on the prices of major asset classes in traditional finance, and the ineffectiveness of related articles is also very high. We can conduct macro research on Bitcoin through correlation analysis between Bitcoin and different major asset classes, and find out which asset it is closest to. By reading macro research reports on such assets, we can sense the temperature of the cryptocurrency market.

Macro at a Grace
Federal Reserve interest rate decision (9.19 2:00)
Announced 5.00% Expected 5.25% Previous value 5.50%

Bank of Japan interest rate decision (9.20 11:00)
Announced 0.25% Previous value 0.25%

Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 14 (10,000 people) (9.19 20:30)
Announced 21.9 Expected 23 Previous value 23.1

US SEC approves BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF options listing (9.21 5:00)
On-Chain Macro
On-chain purchasing power
After the rate cut, short-term holdings began to increase, and began to decrease over the weekend, with no continuation trend. Long-term holdings behaved in the opposite way, and the purchasing power of long and short hands on the chain did not change much. We will observe whether the increase in short-term holdings can be maintained in the future.

In order to pursue higher playability, major investors spent money on various 3A/MMO games last year, but this year there is no splash. On the contrary, the lightweight stand-alone PC game The Beacon has become popular recently. At this stage, perhaps stand-alone PC games may be more suitable for Gamefi than mobile MMO games.

Why standalone?

The user volume of Web 3 itself is not enough to support the user experience of multi-person online games at the same time. Poor user experience makes it difficult to improve retention. If you want to increase the user experience of MMO, you have to attract Web 2 players to join, so you have to return to the traditional The business model of the game relies on a large amount of advertising to generate purchases.