0xkyle__

btc farted and alts jumped off a cliff again huh

market in a weird spot where

> people are tired of memes
> want something more legit
> but still want number go up
> new metas are unsustainable bc they quickly reach "overvalued", but they have nothing to show -> reverts back to mean

solution:
> lots of existing protocols that show growth, who are now at undervalued prices - eg mpl, frax, pendle, etc.
> lots of new protocols that havent experienced the cycle high to the overvalued stage, who have been quietly building and can quickly re-rate higher
- eg initia as an example of something re-rated

im a fan of bidding such alts rather than onchain overvalued tokens, onchain is cool but it re-rates too quickly & gets diluted in hours;

people are tired of getting diluted now -> go back to cexes who have stricter requirements but coins that are cheap (sub 150m)

the sinplest solution to any bad vibes in a token whatever the cause is to just stay away from the coin

if its spiritually broken, the runway to 0 will happen that much faster- no one can hold belief in it, there are no whale buyers, no one wants to hold the damn thing

still waiting for the inevitable capitulation to binance coins as onchain vamps itself

lots of sub 200m projects doing great things

believe that the market is past the stage of "initial hype, but no product" and is yearning for real products that have built, & grows more

why did i wake up to the entire ICM meta being down 50%

anyways, people have seem to forget that
- monumental stablecoin bill about to be passed
- and theres finally a token to long re: stablecoin growth; building the entire stack (issuance, distribution, etc.)
- it is my highest conviction bet right now

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/crypto-backed-stablecoin-bill-gets-bipartisan-push-for-quick-revival-in-senate

its funny because grass is the ONLY project that has this revenue problem

> AMMs with no fee switch: valued at billions
> LSTs with no fee switch: valued at billions
> RESTAKING: valued at billions
> GAMING: valued at billions

> grass: no ure a scam

SO
MANY
GOOD
TOKENS
TO
LONG
AAAAAAAAA
THIS IS HEAVEN???

finally

done with my liquid token piece #1

will publish soon :)

remember:
- sell when you feel like taking a screenshot, buy when it feels so over
- sell when it's peak attention, buy when it's low attention
- sell when everyone's talking about it, buy when no one's talking about it
- at points of max risk, it FEELS least risky. vice versa

believe the assymetric opp right now are in binance listed coins trading at sub 100m val

these are basically the same as onchain tokens but
a) has a larger capital base (funds, etc.)
b) have better fundamentals than new onchain coins (they've been building for longer)
c) has better liquidity

edge:
- they must have no unlocks / dumperoonis
- must be doing something good

high fdv coins were hated, but the products have changed, but the people don't see it - hence the assymetry

- more and more mstr types coming out - btc, sol
- startups enabling pulling forward future contributions of IRA and enabling you to use it today
- buy now pay later culture
- perpetual futures
- dopamine riddled culture
- incredible inequality
- the death of expertise

i believe that we are slowly approaching this paradigm. while memes took off first, i know of very little people bidding memes "for fundamentals" - a lot of the move is short squeeze driven

instead, stuff like INIT / PENGU / SUI strike a good balance of "fartcoin but for VCs" - and it's not that these are bad tokens with predatory vesting / teams too - these are good tokens with good teams, good fundamentals that move fast, that the market can get behind in bidding

imo i think my takeaway in the last 3 months is that in fact, price is now a lagging indicator - in the sense that price is now very heavily dependent on news and your best bet is now forming a view and trading around that view and invalidating that view based on current events, not price

everytime im happy alts go up, some random onchain coin will 5x and make me question why im even in alts

the only thing crypto trading taught me is that i'm exceptionally good at trading beta

my plan

onchain: internet capital markets
cex: thesis driven new tokens

good plan.

the trick to being on this platform is to relentlessly bull post

brother i can't even make money what makes u think i can call when it's time to short and long

but as they say, a broken clock is right twice a day

if u bull post enough, you'd eventually be right

#lifehacks

it seems people have forgotten the ability to dream
- btc 103k
- every minor btc pull back alts nuke
- people have no conviction to hold their longs and tp aggressively
- however, unlike previous trends, charts continue to make higher highs

this is how an uptrend begins..

1% of all internet capital market coins will go a long way