$BTC Let’s talk about the point of view first. Focus on Friday at 20:30 Beijing time. The United States will announce the February PCE price index (Bitcoin’s short-term support is 66000, so we should also focus on it) 1. Interest rate cut expectations may be delayed Bitcoin will be affected in the short term, and the probability of bad news is high 2. There are only more than 20 days until the Bitcoin halving. The benefits before the halving will gradually disappear and will turn negative after the halving. The decline in Bitcoin’s computing power after the halving will also have an impact on the price of Bitcoin Short-term computing power declines. Miners will sell off part of their Bitcoins in order to purchase new mining machines. Bitcoin prices may fall. 3. The price of Bitcoin is positively correlated with the U.S. Nasdaq 100 in the long term. The Nasdaq hits a new high in the United States. Goldman Sachs has repeatedly pointed out bubbles. Once a bubble crisis occurs, it will also be linked to Bitcoin. There is a negative correlation with the US dollar index. The strength of the US dollar index is not conducive to the positive trend of Bitcoin. At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the United States will release the February PCE price index. For traders who are eager to find out whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year and whether the first cut will be in June, tonight’s report may be Confirmation that the U.S. is off to a bad start this year in terms of inflation. “It’s almost impossible for the Fed to surprise on the dovish side now, unless the data almost collapses in the coming weeks and advocates for the Fed to cut rates sooner, but that’s an unrealistic scenario. However, if inflation remains high after the first two months of the year If it remains high, then the Fed's expected interest rate cut in 2024 may still be 'half-way', which will be beneficial to the dollar. The market needs to be prepared for the possibility of the dollar strengthening again."
$BTC MARKO KOLANOVIC, head of JPMorgan Chase's global market strategy team, questioned how inflation can be controlled when the stock and cryptocurrency markets add trillions of dollars in market value, pointing out that investors should be prepared for higher interest rates for a longer period of time.EVERGREEN GAVEKAL said that the Fed's case for cutting interest rates has been undermined by inflation exceeding expectations, including rising gasoline prices, gold breaking through historical highs, crazy cryptocurrency and some stock market speculation, and rising bond yields. However, more market observers believe that the Fed may complete a rate cut in June, especially before the political conventions and the start of the presidential campaign.