I use RMMPC (Regional Month-over-Month Price Change) as an on-chain sentiment indicator to observe the driving force and influence of the three major crypto markets (i.e. the United States, Europe, and Asia) on the#BTCprice. It can reflect the impact of investor sentiment in the region on BTC price changes. Blue represents the United States, yellow represents Europe, red represents Asia, and the black line is the price of BTC;
As we all know, the current price changes of#BTCare more affected by the sentiment of investors in the United States. If the dominance of the United States becomes stronger, the price of#BTCcan at least remain relatively stable, and there is a high probability that it will rise after a period of time. On the contrary, when the driving force of the United States weakens, it is not a positive signal for the short-term price of #BTC. It should be noted that "weakened" here means weaker than Europe and Asia.
As shown in the first section I marked in the above figure, the price of#BTCrose from $63,000 to $73,000. Although the price was rising, the blue line representing the US region began to fall, even lower than the red line representing the European region and the yellow line representing the Asian region. Soon after, the price of BTC began to fall back.
In the first half of the second period, we can see that the market crash was mainly in Asia (the red line deviated seriously from the other two lines), and the price of BTC also fell back all the way, reaching a low of $58,000. However, during this period, the three lines were all in a downward trend, but the blue line was always higher than the red and yellow lines, indicating that although the overall sentiment was not good, the US region still maintained a major influence. Therefore, the price of#BTCalso maintained a relatively wide range of fluctuations.
Starting from June 14, the blue line began to be lower than the red and yellow lines. This should be closely related to the dot plot released by the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the inflation expectations of the University of Michigan, which affected the sentiment and then reflected in the data. If the market anxiety cannot be eliminated in the short term, the price of BTC may be affected to a certain extent, at least it will not be able to show strong performance.
But at present, I personally still believe that the probability of a wide range consolidation in the C1 and C2 ranges (i.e., $60,000-64,000 and $66,000-70,000) is higher. Unless there is a serious deviation from expectations, the market will at least take some time to digest the expectation that there may be only one rate cut this year (from the current dot plot, of course, the Fed can cheat at any time).
