Let’s look at the conclusion first:
1: The current data does not support a full-scale outbreak of altcoins like the last bull market. In this bull market, altcoins may only be hot in some areas.
Second: From the data, altcoins may have a small-scale overall rise, but don’t expect too much increase. The timing of the overall rise may have to wait until the mainstream currencies develop a new trend.
3. For those old coins that were popular in the last bull market, if they are still 5 to 10 times away from the last high point, it is very unlikely that they will set a new high. Therefore, if you have these old coins, you can consider stopping when you have made 2 to 3 times the profit.
4: Pay more attention to new coins with lower market capitalization. The altcoin craze in this bull market is likely to be concentrated on these new coins.
Next, let's analyze the data in detail:
Figure 1: This figure shows the historical market value of the top 10, top 50, and top 100 altcoins by total market value, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, and only the circulating market value is counted, and the unlocked ones are not counted;
Figure 2: In the last bull market, the total market value of the top 10 cottages peaked at 510 billion, the top 50 was 760 billion, and the top 100 was 850 billion;
Figure 3: The total market value of the top 10 altcoins in this bull market peaked at 460 billion, the top 50 at 680 billion, and the top 100 at 760 billion;
Figure 4: The market capitalization of the top 10, top 50, and top 100 altcoins has been declining, and Bitcoin is still in the bloodsucking stage;
By observing the total market value of altcoins in circulation, we found that although the increase in many old coins in this bull market is not obvious and there is still a big gap from the high point of the previous bull market, the total market value of altcoins in the entire currency circle is almost approaching the historical high point, only less than 100 billion.
If the current pace of new project issuance continues, the total market value of the entire cryptocurrency market may exceed that of the last bull market in a few months. Moreover, don’t forget that some large-cap altcoins still have a large number of shares that have not been unlocked. Therefore, although everyone may feel that the altcoin carnival has not really begun, judging from the data, the possibility of a full-scale outbreak like the last bull market has been greatly reduced.
Let’s talk about stablecoins. In the last bull market, the total market value of stablecoins reached 140 billion, while in this bull market, the total market value of stablecoins is 150 billion, an increase of only 10 billion. This shows that there is not much inflow of funds from the outside market, and the market momentum is not strong.
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