Judging from historical data, in the "transition phase" of the bull market, whenever LTH-MVRV approaches 3.5, it will be a resistance level in the market, that is, the selling pressure will become stronger.
From the above chart, since#BTCreached 60,000 USD in March this year, LTH-MVRV has approached or touched the 3.5 red line 4 times, but failed to break through each time. This shows that there is indeed strong resistance here.
If we use the LTH Realized Price 7D change rate data, we can see that the change rate was 0.1% on May 24, and rose to 2.2% on May 31. This shows that during this period, as the#BTCprice rebounded, low-priced LTH chips were changed hands (distributed), which led to a rapid increase in LTH-RP.
Of course, as the bull market cycle progresses, the LTH-MVRV 3.5 position will be broken sooner or later. But at present, if there is no macro sentiment support, it is indeed difficult. Therefore, this is a more sensitive position. If it is effectively broken, it means that the market has begun to enter the middle and late stages of the bull market, that is, the main upward trend is about to start.
As of May 31st, the#BTCprice of LTH-MVRV 3.5 is $74,800.
We have elaborated in detail on the role of short-term holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) and the effectiveness of historical data performance in previous articles. Simply put, in the bull market, when STH-MVRV is lower than 1, it is a cost-effective mid-way boarding position.
As of May 31, the price of#BTCcorresponding to STH-MVRV 1 is $62,500; the price corresponding to STH-MVRV 0.95 is $59,300. On May 1, STH-MVRV reached a low of 0.98. In other words, BTC will have strong support at $60,000, and if it is below $59,000, it will trigger strong demand.
Perhaps, it will fluctuate back and forth in a wide range of 59,000-74,000 until macroeconomic factors drive sentiment, break the balance, change the supply and demand relationship, and the direction will become clear.
