With the positive stimulus of the expected approval of the ETH spot ETF, the market's buyer demand for BTC has increased, driving up prices. At the same time, the importance of seller pressure from LTH has also increased. We can measure their motivation to sell by evaluating the unrealized profits of the LTH group. The LTH-MVRV indicator reflects the average unrealized profit multiple of long-term holders. From a historical perspective, the LTH-MVRV value is usually higher than 1.5 but lower than 3.5 in the "transition stage" from the bottom of the bear market to the main uptrend of the bull market. This means that in this stage, the average profit of LTH can reach 50%-250%.

Looking back at the past two cycles, the duration of this "transition stage" may reach 1-2 years. Among them, the 2016-2017 cycle lasted 335 days, and this cycle has lasted 189 days so far. Compared with the shortest 2016-2017 cycle, we still have about 146 days to wait, which is about 5 months.

If we turn our attention to macro factors, assuming that the Federal Reserve will start its first interest rate cut in September this year, the next step will be the US election cycle. Then, BTC may end the above-mentioned "transition phase" in October. This speculation seems to coincide with 5 months in time.

It is worth noting that any prediction of time and price is subjective, because many factors that can change the time cycle have high uncertainty, such as when the S-1/S-3 of the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved, when the Fed will start to cut interest rates, etc. We just make a certain degree of credibility by observing the on-chain data and combining the time nodes of macro events.

However, no matter how the future changes, the market is always full of uncertainty. Therefore, we need to be vigilant at all times and be prepared to deal with various possible situations. In general, the current "transition phase" is a period full of challenges and opportunities. We need to pay close attention to market dynamics and make strategic adjustments in order to obtain greater benefits in the future bull market.