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Since Ni Da has blocked me, I have nothing to worry about. Let me talk about my views as a real trader on Ni Da’s various data analysis views;

The reason Ni Da blocked me was because he published a tweet during the Binance fine incident at the end of November. I pointed out that there were two problems in the tweet: one: there were data errors; two: the words implied FUD. It was very serious, and there were suspicions of gimmicks and eye-catching. I thought that Ni Da Da stood up to discuss the authenticity of the data he mentioned, but he was blocked;

Now let’s talk about what Ni Da’s analysis has been like in the past year, and whether it is very helpful to people who are actually doing transactions;

Let’s use Figure 2 as an example: Ni Da’s typical analysis ideas repeatedly show both negative and bullish views in one tweet. I don’t know what other people think after seeing this. My feeling is: As a real trader, after seeing this kind of analysis tweet, it is really disgusting, and what is even more disgusting is that he can brag about it afterwards and say that he has analyzed it correctly; published later If you have a negative view, you will soon express a bullish view. Aren’t you awesome at both ups and downs?

If someone questions, Ni Da will often say that you are betting too much on dogs. When did I clearly say that it is a bad thing or a big profit? I don’t know if Ni Da is pretending to be confused, or he is really unaware of his reasoning. There are too many meaningless analyzes and opinions in text analysis;

Let me talk about the big pie ETF that Ni Da has been talking about before. I also pay attention to the news, but I rarely read the news or guess the final result of the news based on the words in the speech. Because this is obviously a very low-level analysis, but Ni Da often likes to rely on one-word analysis that is almost obscene without much rational and logical support. Anyone who has done transactions for more than half a year will not do this. To analyze, I believe that people who are actually doing transactions can empathize with it;

Figure 3 and Figure 4: These are two random tweets that Ni Da has published about ETFs before. In fact, among all Ni Da’s views on ETFs, although he did not clearly state his views, this is in line with Ni Da’s consistent policy. Tai Chi style, but I believe that as a normal person, if I look at Ni Da’s analysis of ETFs in recent months, Ni Da clearly implies that ETFs are hype, and actually believes that the negative attributes are very negative. This is why Ni Da has been constantly criticized recently. Fan diss, in my opinion, this is a normal person's reaction, but Ni Da turned around and boasted that he was the bottom at a certain position. It was because you didn't buy the bottom, it was because you were short, and you are a betting dog. ;

Finally, let me directly talk about my overall views on Ni Da:

1: Ni Da’s tweet analysis is of little help for trading, very little help for short-cycle traders, and often misleading in the opposite direction for long-cycle traders;

You may think that those who analyze macro data and news should find it easier to grasp the bottom and top of the big cycle, but what I have observed is that Ni Da is more misleading to long-term traders, and often makes very direct comments at the bottom. For negative tweets, post very direct positive tweets at the top;

The reason behind it is simple: news analysts all have serious emotional thinking and hindsight thinking. That is, during the rising and falling stages, they dare not express clear opinions. They often start to express their opinions when they are the most panicked and craziest. The result is that everyone sees short calls at the bottom and long calls at the top;

2: Ni Da does not do trading himself, so he is not sensitive to the market. Many analyzes are often done for the sake of analysis, and he falls into self-pleasure. However, many of his fans are doing trading, especially contract trading, because the news is not good. Macro data cannot guide trading, so there will be disputes;

Three: Trading is really your own business. When you go short or lose money, you blame other people for the reason. This is a very immature trading thinking. Therefore, no matter what Ni Da’s analysis is, he should be the biggest one. the responsible person;