#今日市场观点
The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate meeting did convey several important messages, showing that the US economy is facing tremendous pressure and challenges.
First, the Federal Reserve announced that it would not be possible to raise interest rates again, which was clearly a denial of the previous hawkish claim that “interest rates may be raised to 8%”. This change was not out of goodwill, but the Federal Reserve was trying to mislead the outside world and scare those countries that are about to face debt crises. The Federal Reserve’s intention is very clear: they do not want other countries in the world to find out their own interest rate cut schedule, so that these countries will not unite to fight against the US’s “high interest rate harvesting the world” strategy. At the same time, they also want to use threats to make those countries with serious debt crises seek assistance from US-led international banks as soon as possible, so that Wall Street can harvest the assets of these countries earlier.
Secondly, the Federal Reserve announced that it would reduce the scale of selling Treasury bonds from June, from US$60 billion to US$25 billion. This decision marks the beginning of the Fed’s slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction, and also foreshadows the arrival of a monetary easing cycle. The logic of this strategy is simple: high interest rates and monetary tightening policies have brought the US market to the brink of collapse. The collapse of Republic Bank in the United States was a victim of this policy and the beginning of the resurgence of the US banking crisis. In the future, more banks may go bankrupt because they cannot withstand the high interest rate environment.
Finally, the Fed itself does not have a clear answer to the question of when it will cut interest rates. They are gambling and trying to harvest as many global assets as possible before the US financial industry is destroyed by high interest rates. As long as the United States can continue to harvest, the Fed will not easily cut interest rates. However, if a domestic financial crisis breaks out in the United States or the economy enters a severe recession, the Fed will have to cut interest rates immediately, and they will not consider inflation and employment data too much.
In general, the message conveyed by the Fed's May interest rate meeting is full of uncertainty and risk. The US economy is at a critical moment, and the Fed's decision will directly affect the direction of the global economy. In this era full of variables, we need to remain vigilant and pay close attention to the Fed's movements in order to respond to possible risks in a timely manner.
