《Interview Date: April 11, 2024》
1. Please introduce yourself
Hello everyone, I am Mr. P, the founder of Mr. P Studio and Mr. P Wealth Circle Community. After 10 years in the circle, the total income of ARB airdrops reached 4 million US dollars, the income of TIA exceeded 10 times, and the Wormhole project received a million W airdrop.
2. What was the opportunity that led you to enter the circle?
For me, I have entered the circle four times in the past few years. During this period, I have felt the despair of losing 10 million, but I have also received unexpected joy of tens of millions.
I first entered the circle when I was a freshman. Since my major was economics, I was exposed to relevant knowledge about cryptocurrency, and under the guidance of my university teachers, I entered this industry. It was probably in January or February 2013, when the price of Bitcoin was still over $20, and Litecoin was around $2, so we can be considered one of the very early users of web3. Since then, I began to try to trade Bitcoin and Litecoin, but this experience ended in a dismal way. Although we got involved in this industry early, the real benefits were not substantial. During this process, my college roommates also participated in it, and some even held tens of thousands of Litecoins and hundreds of Bitcoins, but unfortunately, they failed to stick to their determination to hold.
The reason for quitting the circle at that time was simple, because we were too young and could not bear the pressure and frustration. At that time, the monthly living expenses of college were only 1,000 yuan, and the price of Litecoin fluctuated greatly. We had no experience and no systematic trading knowledge, so we basically groped in the market. Once we lost 300 yuan a month, we would have to eat steamed bread the next month, and our funds could not bear the second loss. We were young and ignorant, very unfamiliar with the financial market, and were just pure trading rookies. In this case, as long as the transaction failed once, our mentality would collapse, and we would even be disappointed in this industry.
The second time we entered the circle was in 2014, when we decided to really enter the virtual currency circle. At that time, we were about to graduate and thought deeply about our future career development and choices. We realized that we had to engage in a career related to blockchain. However, the lack of relevant positions in the market at that time made us feel a little overwhelmed. So, we often visited the Babbitt forum, and with our own knowledge of economics, we realized that this industry has been continuously developing. Although there were no positions to choose from, we still wanted to try our hand in this field full of opportunities. So, we started to participate in some early ICO projects. Unfortunately, we did not bring the expected success this time, but suffered a significant loss.
At that time, Ethereum had just completed its ICO, and my roommate participated in this ICO. The price of Ethereum once fell to less than $1, and the cost of their participation in the ICO was close to $2. Ethereum has been in a loss-making state during this period, which has caused us nearly 50% losses. And due to the lack of capital inflows in the bull market and the lack of mature investment projects in the industry, we can only participate in the secondary financing of some altcoins, and as a result, most of the projects ran away. We had to withdraw from the circle again, and this experience made us feel that this industry is full of fraud and scams. But it was at this stage that we missed the craziest ICO period.
The third time we entered the circle was in 2017, and we began to have a certain salary income. We started to speculate in the secondary market and accumulated some original capital through one or two projects. Then, we invested frantically in various ICOs, but the result in 2017 was not unexpectedly a loss. From 2013 to 2017, we entered the circle many times, but each time ended in a dismal loss. These failures brought huge psychological burdens and economic costs, which made us feel very frustrated. After this failure, my college roommates and I kept reflecting on why we couldn’t make money in this industry? We had constant communication and exchanges, full of regret and unwillingness.
The fourth time I entered the circle was at the end of 2020, when I got together with my roommates again and talked about the topic of this industry. At that time, we had realized that this industry had undergone earth-shaking changes, and everyone had accumulated a sum of original capital through some off-site income. So, we decided to enter this industry again and find our own direction and positioning from it.
Core content: I have been in and out of the industry four times. The first time was when I was exposed to Bitcoin and Litecoin in my freshman year, but I quit due to lack of experience and financial pressure. The second time was before graduation in 2015, when I decided to enter the field of virtual currency and participated in early ICO projects, but I still suffered losses and quit. The third time was in 2017, when I tried to speculate in the secondary market and ICO, but ended up losing money again. It was not until the end of 2020 that my roommate and I decided to enter the industry again, focusing on the chips in the primary market and obtained the airdrop of the Wormhole project.
3. Can you tell us about what you are doing now?
At present, we mainly run a LuMao studio and some communities. The opening of the studio can be traced back to 2020. We began to explore slowly and continued to pay attention to the development of this industry. The real intention to do an airdrop studio was at the end of 2021. The Uni airdrop in September 2021 touched me a lot. At that time, I saw a person get 300 and 500 accounts of token airdrops in the Sushi community and the Uni community respectively, which means that he made nearly 10 million. The impact of this incident on us can be said to be unforgettable. Later, there was a man named Miner Lao Ma in the circle who made 100 million with the DYDX project. The impact of this news overturned our view of this industry. We realized that this industry does not necessarily have to participate in secondary market transactions or ICOs. We can use airdrops to carry out Web3 business, which immediately inspired our imagination. So, we constantly refer to other people's successful cases, and then determine what we can do based on our own advantages, find our own direction of development in the industry, and gradually open studios.
We are high-risk averse people who prefer low-risk investment, so we prefer low-risk investment solutions and participate in projects by taking chips at the first level. This is like a hunt, you need to do a lot of preparation, such as looking for clues of prey in the depths of the forest. Suppose you want to hunt a wild boar, you need to find the whereabouts of the wild boar. Then, you can choose the most favorable hunting scene to set traps, wait for the opportunity, and finally capture the prey. In the whole process, the test of investment research and cognitive framework is very great. Compared with now, the challenges we faced in the early days of the studio are completely different. Now you can see many bloggers posting various novice tutorials on Twitter, such as how to buy new stocks, how to pull hair, etc. But when we started, there was no such article. We rely entirely on our own understanding, find a relatively good project from many projects, and then try it. This is our specific idea to open a studio. During this period, there will be some positive and negative feedback, such as a project receiving thousands of dollars in airdrop income, which also proves that our judgment is correct, so we will have enough confidence when making decisions. Then next we will gradually add a large number of accounts and positions, complete decisions step by step, gradually expand our scale, and form a systematic "money-making system."
In addition to the Linea project that we have just completed, we have started to invest heavily in three tracks as early as the second half of 2023. The first is the Solana ecosystem, the second is the modular ecosystem, and the third is the staking track. We have allocated funds to the staking ecosystem since April 2023, because we believe that June to August may become a hot spot in the staking field. From the secondary market data, whether it is TVL, number of users or wallet addresses, their growth curves have always been 45 degrees.
Core content: In 2020, we decided to open a LuMao studio and operate a community at the end of 2021. Inspired by the airdrops of Sushiswap and Uni, and combined with the successful cases of others, we began to try to obtain chips through the primary market to participate in the project. We chose a low-risk investment plan, studied and analyzed the project, laid out the LuMao account, and reaped certain results. At present, we focus on the Solana ecosystem, modular ecosystem and staking track, and allocate a large amount of funds to the staking ecosystem.
4. What is your most memorable experience in Web3?
This can be divided into two aspects, one is making money, the other is losing money.
The most impressive experience of making money should be the ARB airdrop. We conducted an in-depth and detailed analysis of the entire project, from the team, financing situation to project features and opportunities, and used the method of butchering a cow to disassemble the details of the project. It can be said that we know the project well, understand every step and roadmap of the project, and clarify our next steps based on the analysis. So we almost meet all the airdrop rules, including monthly activity, transaction volume and cross-chain transactions. Our order number received nearly 3,000 to 5,000 ARBs, and the price of ARB when it was launched was around $1.5, so our order number received about $4,000 to $6,000. We have a total of 4,000 accounts in our own accounts and cooperative accounts, and the total income exceeds $4 million. It is this experience that has consolidated our great confidence in doing a studio, because we have results and have obtained more funds, which verifies that our path to doing a studio is correct. Like the recent Wormhole, I have also achieved results and earned millions of dollars.
As for the experience of losing money, it happened during the Shanghai epidemic in 2022. We invested in a foreign exchange platform, but the platform ran away, causing us to lose more than 10 million. This loss almost exhausted most of our savings in the B circle. The reason for the loss was that we had no idea about the investment project at the time. We invested in that foreign exchange platform purely because of our alumni relationship with the founder and his endorsement, not based on a deep understanding of the project. This experience made us realize that investment must be based on full cognition. Therefore, this incident had a profound impact on all our subsequent investment decisions. We learned to invest only when we fully understand the project, can understand and accept its risks, rather than blindly investing money just because of someone's endorsement or relationship.
These two events had a huge impact on us, mainly because they happened right before and after each other. We lost a large amount of funds first, and then suddenly got an unexpected gain. It was like the feeling of being in a state of panic, and then suddenly finding a way out. This feeling of shock is indescribable. After we lost more than 10 million, we suffered from insomnia every night, and a few days later, the ARB airdrop earned tens of millions. This kind of ups and downs is like pushing people into a trough, but at the trough, they miraculously grow wings and fly to a higher sky.
Core content: The most unforgettable money-making experience was participating in the ARB airdrop, which earned millions of dollars through in-depth analysis of the project and dismantling it. The most painful experience of losing money was investing in a foreign exchange platform during the 2022 epidemic, losing more than 10 million US dollars. The two things happened in just a few days, which brought a great sense of shock, and learned a lesson from the experience of failed investment, that is, investment must be based on full cognition.
5. Can you share with us the skills or areas that you think you are good at?
I think what I am best at is investment research in the Web3 field. Our investment research method is different from traditional analysis. We will not only focus on some deterministic opportunities, such as analyzing how much profit a large project with certain returns can make. Instead, we pay more attention to the analysis and disassembly of early projects. First, we will disassemble the entire track to understand the opportunities and challenges. Then, we will deeply analyze each project in the track, including the project's financing, team background, and major events of the project. We will also pay attention to the possible opportunities of the project. Among what we do, I think my biggest advantage is foresight. Foresight is not a guess, but an analysis of all publicly available data on the market to predict the hot spots of a track or the opportunities of a project. For example, Wormhole not long ago, TIA last year, and Solana.
First of all, for the Wormhole project, we have conducted in-depth research in the early stage, which includes the following steps: first, breaking down the project track positioning and the competitive advantages within the track; second, breaking down the underlying nature of the event, collecting public information about the project for in-depth analysis; third, digging into the relationships behind the project party, analyzing the subtle relationships behind the project party from a micro perspective, and looking for clues on social platforms, which are very valuable, such as members of the foundation, members of the project party, etc.
[Source: "What did we do before the wormhole airdrop?" https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yI-2Hio3roQA58z2ReeZyQ ]
Secondly, regarding TIA, before 2022, we had been studying the opportunities and ecology of the modular track, and TIA only started airdrops in 2023. In fact, we have been tracking it for nearly one or two years. Through early tracking and data analysis, we saw a lot of signs of VC investment in modularization, especially in the first half of 2022, more than 80% of a large number of financing projects involved modular financing. We noticed this trend in 2022, so in 2023, we heavily invested in the modular ecology. We also successfully obtained the airdrop of TIA. When the market was selling TIA in unison, we chose to hold TIA and use the funds for pledge. After that, we received an airdrop of more than $1,000 from DYM, and also received an airdrop from SAGA, which was recently launched on Binance. This is also a currency in the modular ecology that we noticed early.
The third one is about Solana ecosystem. We have been paying close attention to Solana ecosystem since October last year. From the perspective of traders, we think about how to activate the entire ecosystem and rescue it from the shadow of FTX's collapse if we are the head of Solana's foundation. We disassembled the operation ideas of the entire Solana ecosystem and realized that it is not just a simple project. There is a foundation behind it to assist and attract investors' attention and funds through one hot spot after another. For example, we observed that Solana ecosystem first airdropped Bonkmeme tokens, then cooperated with Jup exchange for airdrops, followed by the release of oracle Pyth airdrop information, and then launched Backpack exchange to attract large funds, and then LSD track Jito issued tens of thousands of airdrops. At this time, the on-chain data showed that its funds had doubled, but most people had not noticed Solana at this time. Then the Sol mobile phone and the inscriptions on the Sol ecosystem were launched, and the official strongly supported and forwarded tweets. There must be a master behind this. Therefore, the reason why we were able to obtain the Wormhole airdrop is because we stand from an upstream perspective and look at the entire ecosystem like a foundation.
When the projects in an ecosystem have completed airdrops one after another, who should take over the hot spots of the entire ecosystem? At that time, we analyzed the financing situation in the entire ecosystem and the status of each track, looking for projects that meet high odds, and decided to invest heavily, which is also the underlying logic of our investment in Wormhole. We are not in a gambling mentality, but from the perspective of the entire ecosystem, we understand the entire track like a trader and think about why foundations and VCs invest in these projects. When paying attention to the modular ecosystem, we will pay close attention to several VCs. Because VCs will also have a focus, for example, Paladin will invest in some more innovative projects, while Big Brain, Please Holder and Hack VC will also focus on investing in modular ecosystems. Our strategy is to follow the investment route of VCs and dig deep into profitable projects.
Core content: I am good at investment research in the Web3 field, and my approach is different from traditional analysis. We focus on the disassembly and analysis of early projects, and pay attention to foresight. For example, in the analysis of Wormhole, TIA, and Solana, we disassemble the track and explore the relationship between the people behind the project, and predict hot spots through data analysis. From the perspective of a trader, combined with the investment situation of VC, we understand the entire ecosystem and invest in potential projects.
6. Do you have any favorite track or token? Can you share the reasons why you are optimistic?
From my experience, when we invest in the secondary market, we will focus on the track, and we must first establish an investment framework. For altcoins, first of all, the projects we focus on must be issued after 2022. Secondly, we will choose projects with a circulating market value between 150 million and 300 million. Third, if the circulating market value of the project is relatively large, we will choose the leading project of a certain track. For example, in terms of airdrops, tokens like Galaxy GL are our more commonly used targets in daily life, and we will also allocate a large amount. We will also pay attention to some tokens of the Solana ecosystem, such as the PYTH oracle leader, and some leading projects in the modular ecosystem, such as TIA and the recently launched SAGA.
Core content: In secondary market investment, we have established an investment framework to select targets. First, the project issuance time is after 2022, second, the project with a circulating market value between 150 million and 3.5 billion, and third, the leading project in a certain track is given priority. For example, we have allocated a large number of tokens such as Galaxy GL in airdrops, and paid attention to Solana ecological targets such as PYTH, as well as modular ecological leading projects such as TIA and SAGA.
7. How do you view investment or are there any investment methods you can share?
First of all, in Web3 investment, the essence is to buy low and sell high, which is also my first principle. Secondly, we need to obtain chips in the primary market by studying the overall framework of the project to reduce our own costs.
So when the secondary market conducts spot transactions, learning how to value is a compulsory course for everyone in the circle. Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, you must be able to calculate whether the market value of a project is overvalued or undervalued. In this regard, I have some methods. To calculate the valuation of a project, you need to consider its circulating market value and full circulating market value, which is the so-called full circulating market value (FDV). In the case of a leading project in a track, we can compare the tokens we purchased with the leader. For example, if the market value of the leading project is 10 billion, and the market value of the token you purchased is 1.1 billion, which is more than one-tenth of the leader, then the token you purchased is likely to be overvalued; similarly, if the circulating market value of the token you purchased is very low, such as only one-tenth compared with the leading project of the same period, then this token is likely to be undervalued. For example, when we participated in the airdrop of TIA, TA's circulating market value was very low, less than one-tenth of ATOM. This shows that TIA may be undervalued, and even if the price increases tenfold, it will only reach half of the market value of the leading project. Therefore, our airdrop chips were not sold at all, and we even bought some TIA from the secondary market. In hindsight, this was a wise decision as the price of TIA increased from $2 to $20.
I think it is crucial to get low-priced chips from the primary market in investment. Doing so can greatly reduce the risk of investment. For example, the cost of the tokens we get from the primary market is usually around $0.02. Even if the market price falls, it is difficult to fall below our cost price. Therefore, I very much agree with Shenyu's concept, that is, when the assets are less than 1 million, try to make your wealth reach 1 million by means of white or wool. This method is the fastest and safest. In contrast, trading in the secondary market is very difficult for novices. To go from 0 to 1 million, whether through contracts or spot trading, is a very arduous challenge. According to my more than ten years of experience, few people can successfully cross these two stages. On the contrary, more people who are wooling can directly obtain 1 million in income through a certain project, or hold a certain token for a long time at a lower cost to obtain more than 50 times the income, but there are very few such people. This requires a keen eye to choose such a potential currency and hold it during the period. Therefore, especially for novices, it is crucial to learn valuation when investing in the cryptocurrency circle, and then accumulate a certain amount of original capital through margin trading to obtain higher returns.
Core content: In Web3 investment, buying low and selling high is the first principle, and secondly, you can reduce costs by obtaining chips in the primary market. Obtaining funds from the primary market can reduce risks. As Shenyun said, accumulating wealth quickly by swindling or swindling is the fastest and safest way. In addition, in the secondary market spot trading, it is crucial to master the valuation method. Consider the circulating market value and the full circulating market value, compare with the leading project, judge the over-underestimation, and choose the right time to enter and ship.
8. Do you have any questions you would like to share?
Let me share the future investment direction. First of all, it is the future investment direction of our entire team. The first is that in the Solana ecosystem where we have a heavy position, there are still some opportunities to capture compared to EVM and Ethereum network. For example, Phoenix PHONIE, a project that has recently received financing, and IO, which is about to issue an airdrop. The second direction is modular staking, such as staking SAGA and TIA. These investments may bring huge returns this year and next year. The third direction is the re-staking ecosystem. We expect a huge wealth effect to appear in June to August. Even if you have limited funds, you can try to use a small amount of funds to feel the ecology of the entire market. Sometimes, only by experiencing the operation yourself can you have a deeper understanding of the industry track.
For me personally, my investment direction is very simple, which is to focus on doing difficult but correct things and making investments that delay gratification. Buffett's friend Munger once said that one of the five conditions for a person's success is to make investments that delay gratification. So, I will keep trying to do something difficult but right. Mapping to the matter of airdrops, airdrops are very difficult, but also very correct. Even if I make nine mistakes in this matter, as long as I get it right once, I can turn things around. Although this process may be difficult and take a year or even two years, the final result must be huge.
Core content: At present, the team's future investment directions include focusing on the Solana ecosystem, modular staking and Ethereum re-staking ecosystem, which are expected to bring huge returns. Personal investment direction focuses on doing difficult but right things, as well as investing in delayed gratification. Even if it is difficult, we will persevere and believe that the final result will be huge.
The total number of paid members in P has reached 360. We will recruit a maximum of 500 people. Interested partners are welcome to join~
