If we look back at the bull market cycle from 2016 to 2018, we can find that during the entire bull market development, there were 6 retracements close to or even exceeding -30%. But have we heard that any analyst would say in the past analysis: During the period from 2016 to 2018, this bull market had ended "6 times"? I don't think anyone would make such a "low-level funny" mistake.
Of course, I am not saying that the bottom has been reached now, or that the sentiment will turn in the short term. On the contrary, I emphasized in the tweets of "Is the bull market over?" Series 2 that the pace of the bull market has been delayed. From the two representative realized value curves of 1d-1w and 1-2y coin age, the short-term trend has been changed, and there will inevitably be a continuation.
We can be "cautious", but there is no need to be "pessimistic" or even "panic". It can even be understood that the next time a cross signal appears in the individual data in the tweets of Series 1-3, the main rising wave will start. We just need to wait patiently.
Finally, let me tell you a piece of data:
As of yesterday, the SHT-MVRV value has dropped to 0.98; if you don’t understand what SHT-MVRV below 1 means, you can look back at the following two tweets:
https://twitter.com/Murphychen888/status/1780825849962590374…
https://twitter.com/Murphychen888/status/1781342103639130544…
Next, if STH-MVRV continues to fall, the corresponding BTC price level is:
STH-MVRV 0.95: BTC 56,500 USD
STH-MVRV 0.90: BTC 53,500 USD
STH-MVRV 0.85: BTC 50,500 USD
STH-MVRV 0.8: BTC 47,500 USD USD
Oh, by the way.....
During the 5.19 incident, SHT-MVRV was as low as 0.66, corresponding to the current BTC price of 39,300 USD;
During the 3.12 incident, SHT-MVRV was as low as 0.58, corresponding to the current BTC price of 34,500 USD;
Because a few days ago, I saw a Chinese KOL predict that the lowest price in this round will be adjusted to 32,000. If there is, it must be a super black swan event (affecting human survival and destiny) that is more powerful than 3.12, so
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