In terms of macroeconomics, the US dollar index is still fluctuating at a high level, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still rebounding from oversold levels. The trend of US stocks this week is more important. Generally speaking, the small adjustment cycle of US and Chinese stocks in the bull market cycle is one month, and the large cycle is one quarter. If the US stock market can recover its trend and set a new high next week, it is possible to resume the upward trend and complete a month of adjustment. However, if the US stock market fails to rebound in the future and moves in the adjustment stage again, then the future market may move in a large cycle adjustment, which will greatly affect the trend of Bitcoin. The two important events on Thursday and Friday still have the greatest impact on the market in the short term: the announcement of interest rate decisions and non-agricultural employment data, and the market may fluctuate.

Regarding ETFs, as of April 29, a total of 534,700 BTC have flowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs, and Grayscale GBTC currently still holds 296,724 BTC. The total holdings of Bitcoin spot ETF products are 831,424 BTC, equivalent to approximately US$52.3 billion. Yesterday, ETFs had a net outflow of 823 BTC, and the market funding situation has not improved. The short-term nodes are the interest rate decisions and non-agricultural employment data on Thursday and Friday.

Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs began trading in Hong Kong, with the names and codes: Huaxia Bitcoin (03042.HK), Harvest Bitcoin (03439.HK), and Boshi Bitcoin (03008.HK). The current scale of the first issuance of IOP is: Huaxia Bitcoin ETF 950 million Hong Kong dollars; Huaxia Ethereum ETF 160 million Hong Kong dollars. The main major customers of Harvest and Boshi did not subscribe in the IOP stage, and there may be more funds entering later. As of noon closing, the total transaction volume of Hong Kong Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products reached 49.45 million Hong Kong dollars.

MicroStrategy increased its holdings of 25,250 bitcoins in the first quarter of this year, and currently holds a total of 214,400 bitcoins.

Eigenlayer airdrop is scheduled to go online on May 10, the largest gross this year, but the rules given by the project party are very pitfalls and have many restrictions. The most unfriendly thing is the review and restriction of VPN addresses. I tried it this morning and the claim interface was identified by a wall and I couldn’t log in. So even if there is an airdrop, as long as the real IP is in China, future claims may be a problem. This is not the most serious thing. The most serious thing is that if the project party identifies that the IP address of the pledge address is an "illegal country" address, it may be witched. If this happens, it will be a big pit, and such a big hair will be missed directly.Affected by the Eigenlayer airdrop rules, the price of PENDLE fell.

On the chain, let's check the progress of the bull market. This round of bull market is the black line.

The supply of long-term holders has dropped rapidly in this round of rise, including the reduction of Grayscale GBTC holdings. The trend of LTH in the future is worth paying attention to, because the end of the bull market in history is accompanied by a rapid decrease in LTH supply and a rapid increase in STH supply. The behavior of LTH will largely determine the market trend.

The realized loss age band shows that every rapid decline in the high-level oscillation platform is accompanied by an expansion of realized losses. The latest decline has not shown this sign, so what is the trend in the future?

The price of ETH is basically the same as it was three years ago, but the number of whales entering the market has increased by 3 times, the chips are more concentrated, and the chip structure is much better than before.

In terms of the market, Bitcoin closed well yesterday. On the basis of the long-short game, a certain market demand was seen. But what we want to see most is not the game, but the shortage. The shortage of supply will eventually lead to an increase in the price of the currency. At present, the structure is still a high-level oscillation structure, and the large range structure is still between 60,000-74,000. The small-level pressure is at 67,000. If the price of the currency can stand above 67,000, it can turn into a long market, which is a relatively critical point. In terms of trend, continue to hold positions patiently. There is no obvious sign of change in the external environment, and the short-term cold winter is not over yet.

ETH linkage trend

In terms of cottages, the market is still sluggish. The strongest PENDLE has begun to loosen its price due to the impact of Eigenlayer's airdrop that is not as expected. The recent Ethereum re-staking track can be said to be full of thorns. There is no strong sector. Most cottages have a trend of starting to explore the second bottom. After this bottom is explored in the future market, it is possible to start a new rising stage.

Fear index 67